Strasburg Alternative No. 3: Alex White
Stephen Strasburg is the consensus No. 1 pick in next year’s draft. Now, as Dave mentioned in the comments here, history shows that the top guy heading into the season rarely ends up being drafted first overall. Still, the Nationals face a PR nightmare if they don’t draft the player *perceived* to be the best after failing to sign the ninth-overall pick this year, Aaron Crow. So, let’s begin to take a look at some of the alternatives to Strasburg that could be an option for the Mariners with the second-overall pick. Previously, we’ve taken a look at USC SS Grant Green and North Carolina 1B/OF Dustin Ackley. This time, we’ll look at Ackley’s UNC teammate, RHP Alex White…
In late September, when the Nationals clinched the first pick in the 2009 draft, many Mariners fans (myself included) were disappointed, assuming that San Diego State phenom Stephen Strasburg had just slipped through our fingers. While that may or may not be the case (the draft is still seven months away, after all), there is another pitcher that doesn’t get as much ink as Strasburg, but isn’t too far off, talent-wise.
That pitcher is Alex White, a 6-foot-3, 195-pound righthander for the University of North Carolina. Teammates with Dustin Ackley, the Tarheels are loaded this year, with two potential top-5 draft picks.
White grew up in Greenville, N.C. where he attended D.H. Conley High School. Prior to the 2006 draft, Baseball America ranked him as the 71st-best draft-eligible prospect. With good stuff and quality makeup, he led the Vikings to a 3-A state title. Here is some video footage from the championship game…
Despite being one of the top high school pitchers in the 2006 class, White slipped to the 14th round, when the Dodgers took him. He still wanted big-time money, reportedly asking for $1.4 million, and the Dodgers let him go to school instead.
White headed to Chapel Hill and joined the Tarheels rotation. He pitched in 19 games as the Tarheels’ Saturday starter and threw 98.1 innings, going 6-7 with a 4.94 ERA. He struck out 83 batters (19.1%) and walked 43 (11%). White’s best performance of the season came in the ACC title game against Virginia when he struck out five over seven scoreless innings. The Tarheels went on to Omaha that year, losing in the championship to Oregon State.
That summer, White played in the Cape Cod League for the Chatham Athletics. He appeared in seven games and started three of them. Over 25.2 innings, White struck out 31 hitters and walked just eight, posting a 2-1 record and maintaining a 2.10 ERA.
White returned to Chapel Hill last year for his sophomore season and improved all aspects of his game, shouldering the load as the team’s ace. He started 15 games and appeared in 20, throwing 101.2 innings, posting a 2.83 ERA and leading the nation in wins by going 13-3. White struck out 113 batters, good for 27% of those faced. Only nine other pitchers in the country racked up more strikeouts last season. He also cut his walk rate, issuing 42 walks (10%). The season earned him the ACC Pitcher of the Year award and he was a third-team All American for Baseball America.
After throwing more than 100 innings last year, White did not play baseball this summer. He’s been sharp during the Tarheels’ scrimmages this fall and is ready to go this spring.
With a heavy fastball that sits between 93-96, a plus slider and an occasional splitter, White is a force on the mound that Baseball America recently ranked the No. 2 draft-eligible prospect in the country. Even if the Mariners don’t get Strasburg, there are some nice consolation prizes and they will certainly be adding an impact player to the organization.
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Even though its a reduced rate, aren’t those walks slightly worrying?
BTW I think the intro paragraph in italics needs to be changed.
If Green is Strasburg Alternative #1, shouldn’t White be Strasburg Alternative #2?
Only if you’re a Spartan.
On a serious note, how are his mechanics? (I know there’s concern about Strasburg in that respect.)
Didn’t Bill James say once that first round pitchers picks were more than often busts, and backed it up with, oh, about 60 examples … with maybe 2 or 3 that worked as well as the guy made it to the majors?
I do believe he did. (Of course, back in the 80s, we’d believe anything)
Carry on blindly covetting.
They’re not ideal. Fixed the intro, thanks.
Look at some of the first round pitchers that have been drafted since 1999: Josh Beckett, Ben Sheets, Adam Wainwright, Zack Greinke, Jeff Francis, Joe Saunders, Scott Kazmir, Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton, Jeremy Guthrie, Matt Cain, John Danks, Justin Verlander, Jered Weaver, Phil Hughes, Mike Pelfrey, Matt Garza, Luke Hochevar, Tim Lincecum, Brandon Morrow, Clayton Kershaw, David Price…I realize there are busts in there too, but not drafting pitchers simply because they’re pitchers is foolish.
The only thing (off the top of my head) I remember Mr. James writing about in terms of 1st rd picks is that the success rate is actually a lot higher than the later rounds. Sure, baseball is still more hit or miss than say footbal but I believe the first round has like a 60% “success” rate or so.
Is it just me, or does this guy not seem as hype-worthy as Green or Ackley? The stats just don’t jump out as much. I mean, Green is a great defensive SS who has power, speed, and average. Ackely hits .400 and can perhaps play CF.
I guess 10k/9 is good, and his Cape Cod numbers are impressive, and perhaps it’s also because I feel like our pitching is fine especially with our 3 studs from Wisconsin (I know, you don’t draft based on need, only on best available talent), but it seems that if the three are equal, I’m taking the bat. For me right now, it’s still Green or Strasburg (we seem to have an affinity for west coast guys (Morrow and Clement) or at least Fontaine/Bavasi did.
My guess for the preference for west coast players may be that they’ve had more development time? Same as southern ball players. Anyone from the north or northeast is under several feet of snow and sub-freezing temps all winter. I dunno, just a guess, like I said.
This could all change if the M’s sign Dayan Viciendo. He’s likely too portly to play short anyway, so maybe it wouldn’t preclude Z from taking Green. Imagine that infield in 4 years.
* Viciedo. If only I’d noticed within 3 minutes.
This White guy is intriguing, but I’m still on the Grant Green bandwagon. Our farm system is starving for a quality “up-the-middle” prospect.
It’s post-modernist counting.
Dustin Ackley was SA#2.
Use the search box, it’s your friend.
Here’s a list of some aces and almost aces currently pitching with the round they were drafted:
Roy Halladay – 1
Dustin McGowan – 1
Josh Beckett – 1
John Lackey – 2
Joba Chamberlain – 1
David Price – 1
Scott Kazmir – 1 (stuff wise)
John Danks – 1
Cliff Lee – 4
Justin Verlander – 1
Zack Greinke – 1
Tim Hudson – 6
Cole Hamels – 1 (Brett Myers too)
CC Sabathia – 1
Rich Harden – 17 (stuff wise)
Ryan Dempster – 3
Roy Oswalt – 23
Chris Carpenter – 1
Adam Wainwright – 1
Clayton Kershaw – 1
Chad Billingsley – 1
Jake Peavy – 15
Tim Lincecum – 1 (Matt Cain too)
Brandon Webb – 8
Dan Haren – 2
16/25 of them were first round picks. If you count Myers and Cain that’s 18/27. While pitchers are riskier compared to position players, it’s rare to find an “ace” via the draft besides the first rounds. Hence, why you shouldn’t avoid pitchers in the early parts of the draft, you just have to recognize the inherent risk associated with them.
Bill James’ comment was specifically targeted at High School pitchers being chosen in the first round and their poor success rates.
Bill James’s comment was also something like fifteen or twenty years ago. Correct me if I’m wrong, but colleges (and even high schools) have made a lot of progress in coaching skills and avoidance of abuse since then. People don’t let their star prospects throw 150 curveballs every start so much nowadays.
I too prefer the Green guy over the White guy.
In the video, they show his fastball at 93mph, but viewing it twice, did he strike out a kid with a 72mph change-up? Are they using the same readout for the temperature? Any one else notice?
As far as pitching mechanics concerns go, a 20 year old kid working with pro coaches has plenty of time for correction. Plus that, no offense to Brandon Morrow, aren’t mechanics concerns why we passed on Linnecum? He only pitched, what, 400 innings last season?
All this Morrow/Lincecum talk reminds me of the time Baseball Digest ran an article about how the Tigers regretted passing on Butch Wynegar to draft Lance Parrish. Two years does not a career make.
Taken all in all, right now, I think Green’s still my favorite player in this draft, given the concerns I’ve heard about Strasburg’s mechanics and what they might mean for his health (though Kevin Appier made it a long time with his pitching motion); it will be interesting to see, though, how this upcoming season changes everyone’s opinions and draft orders.