Recommended Free Agents
With Free Agency kicking off today, here’s a list of guys available to sign who I would like to see the M’s pursue. We don’t need to fix the roster via big signings like Bavasi kept trying, but the club would still do well to find some quality players who are available this winter and could help in both 2009 and beyond as the club looks to get back on the winning track.
Milton Bradley, OF/DH
His attitude and injuries are going to keep the price from going through the moon. It’s a risk, no doubt, but it’s worth taking a shot and seeing if you can get him for 3 years/$30 million or less.
Joe Crede, 3B
Assuming that Beltre’s going to get traded, Crede makes the most sense as the replacement. His defense is outstanding, there’s juice in his bat, and the health concerns probably make him a candidate for just a one year deal.
Rocco Baldelli, OF
He could be a 4th outfielder for a contender if he wants, but the Mariners are one of the few teams that can offer him a chance to prove he can still play everyday. If he wants to try to get his career back on a track as a full time starter, the M’s are going to be one of the more attractive options, and he won’t require a long term commitment.
Juan Rivera, OF
His skills aren’t a perfect match for Safeco, but he could make a decent DH stopgap, prove he’s healthy, an be an interesting trade chip at the deadline.
Alex Cintron, SS
If they don’t acquire a new starting shortstop (J.J. Hardy, anyone?), they need a legitimate option to push Betancourt. Cintron’s a switch hitter with decent contact skills and gap power. His defense sucks too, but he’d at least provide an alternative.
Ryan Langerhans, OF
Rangy outfielder who tracks down everything hit his way and takes some walks to boot. If the M’s want to build a good defensive outfield to help the pitching staff, he’s the kind of guy you can get for practically nothing.
Jeremy Affeldt, LHP
Local kid, underrated reliever, fills the need for a good 8th inning setup man, and can take over the closer role if Putz is traded.
Bartolo Colon, RHP
Same pitch as last year – his stuff is still there and he still doesn’t have much problem getting people out. He’s a headcase and has all kinds of injury problems, but the M’s can offer him a real shot at a rotation spot if he’s healthy, which few other teams will be able to do. If he stays healthy and pitches well, great. If he doesn’t, you don’t lose much.
Will Ohman, LHP
Slightly less effective than Affeldt, but still a quality LH setup guy who flies under the radar.
Ben Sheets, RHP
And, continuing with the take-smart-risks theme, Sheets may fall through the cracks with his health concerns and the bevy of starting pitchers on the market. Zdruriencik knows him better than anyone, and if they could get him signed for something like 3/50, he could turn out to be a big steal.
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After you’ve read Dave’s fine post, please vote for Dave and help get him the scholarship.
Our we at the unfortunate point where a Beltre trade is all but certain?
I’ve now voted from both my home and office computer. Like voting in Chicago, early and often.
Anyway, as much as I’d like this year’s signings to be purely a rebuilding effort, what are the chances Zduriencik buys low on some commodities solely for the purpose of potentially developing more trade bait at the deadline? I know this is risky for a team that should not be trying to take on any more deadweight.
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I’ve always thought Baldelli and Rivera would do well in Seattle…
Never really thought about Sheets, but if he is healthy, that would be a nice pick-up…especially if they trade Bedard for prospects and successfuly dump any of the suck brothers (Wash, Bautista, and Silva)…
And speaking of Silva, if we brought in Colon, there would be daily fights over the clubhouse catering…not sure that’s a good idea…
Been waiting for this post for a while…thanks Dave…
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I really like the Sheets idea and I was hoping for Milton Bradley last year.
We need more left handed pop and guys that have high OBP’s. That’s what concerns me a bit about Crede. I do like his glove and power but his career OBP is .306. I understand that he may just be a stop gap in the short run but if we did pick him up, hopefully there would be left handed pop at 1B, DH and one of the OF positions with guys that actually get on base.
Is Colon really worth spending money on? He had an ERA+ of 72 in his last reasonable sample size 2007. Also, despite an ERA+ of 112 last year for the Red Sox, his whip was still in the 1.35 range. I can’t see him being worth any real money.
What about Giambi? He’s dreadful at first, but he takes walks and hit’s home-runs…he’d be a fine full-time DH…
And how about Randy Johnson? I’m not going with the whole Jr., Unit, and Cora reunion, but if RJ can pitch healthy, he’s better than 3 of our current starters…
Is it clear that Baldelli’s health problems would allow him to play every day? I think all he may be able to handle at this point is 4th OF duties. I don’t think he’s looking to be a full-time starter.
ERA+?
/hits head on wall.
I would definitely want to put out feelers on RJ mainly b/c he would be better than half the M’s staff as it stands. That being said, he is going to want to go to a contender and the nostalgia of getting to 300 wins with the M’s will not be enough of a draw to bring him back.
Giambi is interesting enough b/c of what he can still bring. I live just outside of Toronto and the rumours of him coming here won’t seem to go away, so I can see a bidding war to try and get him.
Is Furcal someone that is even on the Mariners radar?
What is the over/under for Larry Stone to include Milton Bradley in “other players of interest?”
How about Josh Kroeger? Baseball America lists him as a free agent.
Dave-
What about Japenese free-agent Tazawa? Mlb.com is reporting that the Ms are interested. What are the chances of him coming to Seattle? I’ve heard that he’d be either a starter or a pen guy, and have also heard that he should go to AAA first. Lots of speculation.
Would we want to sign him? There is no posting fee.
I also heard he would be a starter or a pen guy. And that he would start in the majors or the minors, and that he is good or not good.
LOL at VanillaGorilla.
Very insightful.
According to BA, Langerhans re-signed with the Nationals, apparently on a minor league deal. If so, he would be available in the Rule 5 draft.
What are the chances that Z, or one of his henchman, would take a look at a list such as this?
I’d bet someone in that FO, either someone in charge or one of their intern underlings has checked out USSM.
Maybe that StatCorner link needs to be a bit bigger.
huh. Stark had Crede and Affeldt on the potential Mariners shopping list.
Of course, he also mentioned Giambi and Griffey ….
plus he’d bring back all those exciting Mariner Memories of Cousin Andy….
I’d look into 2 yr stopgap deals for Bradley and Giambi (yes i know he’s a butcher at 1B, but what is the alternative?) A zero to negative WAR player like LaHair?
Id also look to sign Affeldt
Sorry, I’ve been reading massive amounts of FJM lately and have become too friendly with ERA+. When I actually have a moment, I shall look over the math behind tRA so as to understand the basis for it. Colon’s tRA numbers aren’t bad. All fat jokes aside, a one year deal would be ok.
As for the infield, that brand-new free agent WFB is confident he will land on his feet somewhere, and get an opportunity. He says a couple of teams have expressed some interest … and that unless you know Scott Boras as a person, you don’t know Scott Boras.
Willie points out that if you look at his numbers, you’d find that when he plays on a consistent basis, he is closer to a .300 hitter. No, really, he is.
God… i hate disagreeing with Dave, because it’s about 70-30 that i’m either wrong, or we’ll meet somewhere in the middle anyway… but how is Ben Sheets for nearly 17 mil a bargain or a steal? Is he effective? Sure, he can be… but it’s a whole lot of risk for a team that may or may not even contend until 2010. The Mariners already have a guy like that… his name is Erik Bedard.
Milton Bradley destroys me at MLB 2K8, so he has my endorsement.
Sheets is far better than Bedard, and 2010 is only one season away. A three year deal would span the 2010 season, plus give us an extra year in case we didn’t quite make it.
Obviously what’s needed is to sign free agents Junior and the Unit, talk Edgar and Buhner into coming out of retirement, put Joey Cora in the dugout to run the show and relive 1995 over again. What do you think Chuck and Howie, won’t that put some butts back into the seats?
Seriously, how could looking at Randy Johnson at this point be anything other than an attendance gimmick? It’s not like he’ll be around if/when this team becomes competitive again, and meanwhile he’d be taking innings away from kids we need to develop….
I’d like to get poll on what people would think is a good value for adam dunn. Granted adam will get 4-5 times more that what DMZ, Dave and others feel that he’s worth. But he has to be worth something…. how much? 3yr/21 mil?
bat guano – the problem, as Dave and DMZ have mentioned several times, is that we don’t have much MLB ready pitching, meaning we need a few stop-gags until our young pitchers can get to the majors.
I wondered the same thing about Sheets. I guess if wins cost $4-5 million in free agency and he’s a +3 to 4 win pitcher then it could make sense. His injury risk makes the whole thing a pretty big gamble, but if he stayed healthy and played as expected it could be an alright way to spend some of Nintendo’s money.
hmm. typo or too-accurate description of a fill-in pitcher?
I <3 Adam Dunn. However, for what it’s going to cost and the position he’s gonna play (DH), we can fill the spot for a lot less.
Re: RJ. I think Randy really does have 1 or 2 decent years left in him. His FIP last year was 3.76, and Bill James has him at 3.58 next season. He’s still striking out a guy an inning to boot. Of course, I’m not willing to give him more than a year or two either.
Logger, if you assume Felix, Bedard, Silva, Morrow and Ryan R-S are in the rotation (and Washburn and Batista are gone–please God), we don’t have a need for a veteran pitcher. Even if Bedard is hurt and can’t pitch I’d prefer to find out if guys like Feierabend and Dickey have any future in the big leagues rather than giving the Unit a Seattle swan song.
Willie points out that if you look at his numbers, you’d find that when he plays on a consistent basis, he is closer to a .300 hitter. No, really, he is.
Is that in the sense that .258 is closer to .300 than .257 is?
First off, can everyone stop referring to Affeldt as the “local kid”? He pitched for my high school in Spokane, which is 4 hrs away from The Safe. And speaking of Affeldt in high school, that was when his talent virtually peaked. Since when has this guy become a sexy free agent choice? One solid year as middle reliever with the Reds (in addition to several disastrous ones in Colorado and KC) and suddenly he’s mentioned in the same sentence as JJ?
Stick to Sheets, Crede and Hardy.
I think Willie needs to stop drinking his fan clubs juice.
I love Milton Bradley’s skill set- except for the part where he has zero ability to stay in the lineup consistently. He makes J.D. Drew look like Cal Ripken.
For shits and giggles, if the M’s brought RJ back, who would wear #51?
RJ would be better than 3 of our current starters. Bringing him in on a 1 or 2 year deal would be about winning games, not publicity…
Dunn would make an awesome DH, but not for the money he will probably attract…I’d rather get Giambi…
WFB sucks…
Sheets would be a good pickup…the rotation of Felix, Bedard, RJ, Sheets and Morrow would be awesome…we know Bedard, RJ, and Sheets are injury prone, so we still have RRS, Ryan F, and Dickey around for spot starts…if the three of them can stay healthy and are effective, trade them at the deadline if we need to…
[off-topic]
This post, I believe, is for free-agents…not players in other orgs…Dave had a previous post about players we could trade for…
And the Mariners have openly said they will be players in the FA market, just not for the megastars like Manny, Tex, and CC…
So for us to look at these players isn’t really that far fetched…
I guess I’m confused. If Sheets and Bedard are both +3(4) win pitchers and both are injury prone, how is Sheets “far better” than Bedard?
Personally I’m good with where the pitching is for now and would rather the focus of this offseason be placed on scoring runs and defense. I would LOVE for the M’s to somehow pry Hardy away from the Crew and I have been on the Baldelli bandwagon for awhile now.
Bedard and Sheets are both great pitchers when healthy…
And where I’d agree with you that the focus should be offense, like with a draft, shouldn’t we just be trying to accumulate the best players we can? We can always trade them for prospects later…
Dave, If Dunn is a 2.5win player wouldn’t his expected salary be somewhere in the 12.5mil per year on the open market? Is that realistic?
#51 isn’t a retired number (yet) and it currently belongs to Ichiro. RJ would have to settle for #15…
If there weren’t so many holes in the current roster, I’d say yes. The M’s are looking at a handful of positions that could provide upgrades to offense, defense or both. This team has specific needs that should be addressed before stockpiling “extra” talent IMO.
Z and his staff should be open to looking at all avenues, not just offense and defense…
If they can sign a starting pitcher to a good deal, they should jump on it, even though right now the defense and offense need more help than starting pitching…
Felix-Sheets-Bedard-Unit-Morrow. Haha, that would be fun, at least until 3 of them head to the DL by midseason.
Or until 2010, when Unit and Bedard skip town.
But hey Im not against any move that is done with a 2-3 yr contract.
If Z wants to bring in Giambi for 1B, Bradley for DH, Griffey for occasional RF/DH, Unit, Sheets, Affeldt, go for it, I dont have any expectations for 2009 or 2010, so as long as these guys dont get deal longer than 2-3 yrs, go at it.
God knows it would be alot more entertaining watching these stopgap players, even with their shortcomings, than being forced to watch 162 games of Bryan LaHair, Jeremy Reed, Tug Hulett, and a host of others who have no future here
Greenwf, you went to Affeldt’s high school? I went to a rival school…I was a tiny left handed hitter facing Affeldt and it wasn’t pretty – 92 mph fastball with a reasonable curveball against school with 100 students.
He has the stuff to be very good, but he doesn’t seem to have the best command at the major league level. Still, I’d think of him as a valuable bullpen arm for a reasonable price.
Hitters:
Baldelli – Yes Please! I mean, the M’s need 1 or 2 new OFs and a DH. They could play him in all 4 positions either as a starter – or if health problems continue to be an issue – as a super OF sub/DH.
Bradley – what was going on with his BABIP last year? It seems that there was a corresponding uptick in his LD% so maybe it’s somewhat sustainable, but I’m not sure. I guess I would say to lay off Bradley and would prefer Baldelli as he’s 2.5 years younger, should be much cheaper, and is a more capable fielder when healthy (from what I’ve read). It seems like most of the young positional prospects are going to be OF’s so I don’t see the point in getting both Baldelli and Bradley as long as the team still has Ichiro! as they will block Halman, Saunders, and Wlad.
RJ and Colon make alot of sense as short term stop-gaps that will 1) help the team win now, 2) help the team bring in revenue, and 3) give the team time to find/develop long term solutions. The only problem I see is that unless room is made for them by getting rid of Silva, Batista, and Washburn, it seems like a place where the incremental wins will not be worth the cost of adding more pitchers to the team.
I agree tealfan…they should be looking at bringing in anyone they can for 2009 and 2010…we have some kids that will be ready soon, so unless they are handing out Bavasi contracts, these guys shouldn’t hurt…and as I’ve mentioned before, letting them walk and/or trading them for prospects is a great way to go…
CMC-
I would assume that Z is trying to get rid of one or all of the suck brothers…Wash and Bautista might actually be moveable…Silva probably not…
i always respect your talent evaluating skills, but I had the burden of watching alex cintron attempt to be a starting shortstop in Baltimore.. It was embarrassing..
I sure see a lot of people on here spelling Batista’s name with a “u”…Just sayin…
How many wins would this team project to:
RF:Ichiro
CF:Baldelli/Reed platoon
LF:Balentien
1B:Giambi
2B:Lopez
SS:Betancourt
3B:Beltre
C:Clement/Johjima
DH:Bradley
Lineup:
RF:Ichiro
CF:Baldelli/Reed
DH:Bradley
1B:Giambi
3B:Beltre
C:Clement
2B:Lopez
LF:Balentien
SS:Betancourt
I would think this lineup could certainly be a strong offensive unit. Defensively, not so much, thus likely eliminatiing any chance of competing.
Rotation (begin yr)
Felix
Big Unit
Morrow
RRS
Silva
Insert Bedard for whoever RRS or Silva when he gets back
Pen:
Green
Jimenez
Affeldt
Corcoran
Lowe
Thomas
Putz
Maybe you get 75-80 wins out of that team if it stays relatively healthy.. at least alot more entertaining to watch then our present projected roster
#51 isn’t a retired number (yet) and it currently belongs to Ichiro. RJ would have to settle for #15…
Do you think #51 will eventually be retired for BOTH players?
If they were planning on retiring RJ with 51, they probably wouldn’t have given it to ICHIRO!…
True, however it’s not unprecedented that a number is worn by other players prior to it being retired (if it’s not a slam dunk like Griffey) AND it’s not unprecedented in baseball to have 2 players for one number. I believe #8 is retired twice by the Yankees … Yogi Berra & Bill Dickey.
I sense a rosterbation hijacking taking place. Why no love for Griffey, tealfan?
Yea sorry about that. I got carried away, but it does refer to the players being discussed.
My free agent wish list*
OF -
Baldelli (2 year, $14M contract)
Can play all OF spots and DH if/when hurting or needing some rest. Get him for all the reasons Dave said.
Junior (1 year, $5M contract)
I know most of you will hate this because you’ll see it as pandering to the fan base… BUT, he still hits the RH pitching well. He can play corner OF spots in a pinch if he needs to. I basically see him playing as a DH against righties and a spot OF starter. Add to that that the team does need to make money and if they can get Griffey who will likely be a 1 WAR DH for $5M, that would be great. If he wants more than that, then it doesn’t make sense.
-Griffey/Reed/Balentin Fangraphs comparison to play with-
1B-
Todd Linden or whatever is out there on the cheap. Find 2-4 AAAA free agent 1B and OF, sign them and see what happens. The M’s can offer them playing time and a chance, which is more than most contenders can offer.
I’d really like to trade for Brad Nelson and JJ Hardy for Yuni, Washburn, Batista, Putz, and Rob Johnson or something along those lines. The Brewers need SPs, a closer, a catcher, and we can swap SSs. We clear a ton of salary, they get useful major leagues, everyone wins.
SS-
If the M’s can’t trade for a SS like Hardy, then the best Free Agent seems to be Furcal. If the M’s can sign him for a market contract at no more than 3 years of length, then that would be great. Player option for 4th year based on playing time would be fine if it gets him to sign.
SP-
Randy (1 year $10 with player option for 2nd year based on IP)
Colon (same as Randy)
Sheets (what is fair market value for him if he’s going to average 150 IP per year?)
RP-
Affeldt (2-3 year deal at $4-5M per season)
* Assuming Batista and Washburn are traded, Bedard will come back half way through the season, Ibanez is offered arb. and declines, and Beltre/Ichiro! are not traded.
The team would then be:
RF/CF – Ichiro!/Baldelli
LF – Balentin
1B – Clement, Brad Nelson, Todd Linden, or AAAA 1B
DH vs RH – Griffey
DH vs LH – 4th OF, backup 1B, etc.
2B – Lopez
SS – JJ Hardy
3B – Beltre
C – Clement/Johjima
SP – Felix
SP – RJ
SP – Colon/Sheets
SP – Morrow
SP – Silva
SP – Bedard (for the 2nd half when someone else breaks down)
6th SP – RRS
RP – Green
RP – Jimenez
RP – Affeldt
RP – Corcoran
RP – Lowe
RP – RRS
RP – Dickey
This team gets you wins, short term contracts as the farm is rebuilt, ticket sales, and fun. Could it do without Griffey and RJ and give more opportunites to AAAA cast-offs, definately. Will that hurt the team’s ticket sales and possibily their financial outcome, probably. Do Griffey and RJ have enough left to contribute even if they weren’t ex-Mariners, I’d like to think so.
Sorry bat guano. I got carried away too.
CMC, the Brewers certainly do not “win” with that trade.
JJ Hardy and Brad Nelson
for
a bad SS (Yuni), two overpriced pitchers (Wash and Batista), a backup catcher (Johnson), and Putz..
I would think if you wanted to even get the Brewers to the table you’d have to put Beltre, Lopez, or Clement on the table.. definately two of the three would need to be included in the deal.. plus others
Apology accepted CMC. Thanks to you both Griffey and the Unit will be back! Obviously our roster problems are the result of a management failure to recognize the need for grizzled veterans. How about Edgar for DH and Cora for manager? Is Moyer available?
Junior (1 year, $5M contract)
I know most of you will hate this because you’ll see it as pandering to the fan base… BUT, he still hits the RH pitching well. He can play corner OF spots in a pinch if he needs to. I basically see him playing as a DH against righties and a spot OF starter. Add to that that the team does need to make money and if they can get Griffey who will likely be a 1 WAR DH for $5M, that would be great. If he wants more than that, then it doesn’t make sense.
At that money, Griffey’s not going to kill you, but I’m not sold that Griffey’s very good any more.
Griffey looked horrible last year, and appears to have put on about 20-30 lbs since he was in Seattle. While I wouldn’t view it as the end of the world if they brought him back, it’d have the potential to be a disastrous spectacle if he experiences an even deeper decline (I could see him being DFA’d by August).
RJ could be a useful pick-up though, if they can find a sucker to take Washburn or Batista.
Not when Armstrong’s still the President.
Colon pitched okay for the Red Sox but essentially bailed on the team at the end of the season.
He seems to pitch with only 2 pitches now, a less than it used to be 4 seam fastball at around 91-92 and a 2 seamer just slower than that with a lot of movement. His control is still good but there were a lot of times when he would get somebody down 0-2 and couldn’t put ‘em away.
He doesn’t seem reliable at all at this point.
Nick Punto, anyone?
What about Orlando Cabrera at SS. I think he is a good option.
Sheets and Colon are a waste of time. I watched Sheets several times in Milwaukee and he can look fairly good or really bad.
I just don’t see Colon re-bounding from his injuries, especially at his size.
The only guy on the list that interests me is Rocco. The guys a good fielder, has speed and some power, but it’s the health thing again.
If you’re going to take a chance on a guy with past injuries/illness, you do it with someone young.
So, as far as Crede goes, if we trade Beltre, is bringing in a one-year stopgap plan A? Or would we be better off throwing Tui or Valbuena to the wolves and seeing what they can do?
I’m not sure trading Beltre this offseason is the best move. It might be, and I’d certainly think they should be listening to offers and even proposing trades if they see real value they can get back. But there’s always the trade deadline next summer, or letting him walk for the draft picks.
If they do trade Beltre, rather than going out and getting a stop-gap I’d rather see them move Lopez to 3rd, bring up Valbuena, and just tread water for a year.
Or (to continue my thought in a thread no one is still reading) try to get Orlando Hudson for 2B when you move Lopez to 3rd and trade Beltre. I’d much rather take a flier on Hudson than on Crede.