Priority numero uno
Reading the rumors today that the Dodgers and Tigers are possibly interested in trading for Jack Wilson, I couldn’t help but dream that they may also be interested in Yuniesky Betancourt. Let’s compare the two players…
Betancourt will be 27 next season and is coming off of a year in which he hit .279/.300/.392, good for a wOBA of .299. Despite holding a reputation as one of the best defensive shortstops, we know that’s not the case and defensive metrics back that up. His fielding bible plus/minus score was -19 and he ranked near the bottom of the list in David Pinto’s Probabilistic Model of Range.
Wilson, on the other hand, will be 31 next season and hit .272/.312/.348 last year, good for a wOBA of .293. They’re pretty identical hitters. Where Wilson sets himself apart is with his defense. He was at +16 last year, which ranked him fifth among all shortstops. Probabilistic Model of Range also showed him to be above-average, as he ranked 10th among his position there and Pirates fans backed that up in Tango’s Fans Scouting Report.
There’s also one major difference between the two that narrows the gap between the two players—price. Wilson is owed $7.25 million next year, with a $8.4 million option for 2010, although that’s unlikely to be picked up, as the buyout is only $600,000. Betancourt will cost $2 million this year, $3 million next year, $4 million in 2011 and has a club option for $6 million in 2012.
Wilson is a better player but, all things considered, there’s not that much difference and I could imagine many teams would actually prefer Betancourt considering the price tags attached. This is why Zduriencik should make dealing Betancourt his first priority at the winter meetings next week. The Cardinals are now out of the below-average shortstop market, but it sounds like the Tigers and Dodgers are still interested.
As Jeff pointed out at Lookout Landing the other day, replacing Betancourt’s production won’t be that hard. If they don’t want to or can’t upgrade, the M’s could simply take a flier on another stopgap—someone like Nick Punto, Adam Everett or Cesar Izturis. Heck, even Luis Valbuena could probably duplicate YuBet’s production.
Yuni for Hu and something useful.
There’s still hope for a Yuni for Hu/Ethier deal, ridiculously unlikely as it may be.
Otherwise, I’d be fine with Valbuena platooning with someone at short.
No, that’s crazy.
If only Detroit had any B prospects worth taking in the deal. Beyond Porcello, there’s practically nothing there.
Any team that might consider Yuni would presumably also be looking at free agent Cesar Izturis, who is a way better in the field (+19 on plus/minus) and a little less at the plate (.263/.319/.309 last year ) — though Izturis adds some value there by being a switch hitter.
The money is going to be comparable (Izturis made $2.8M last year with St Louis), but teams won’t have to give up any other talent to get him. Yuni has youth on his side, but given the way he’s been bloating up I’d be worried gravity is going to degrade his skills before father time does.
Izturis of course is no Wilson at the plate either (in fact the Pirates demonstrated that in ’07 when they inexplicably picked him up from the Cubs in the middle of July and then gave him just 123 AB over the rest of the season because they already had a shortstop named Jack Wilson). But my point is that while there’s a market out there for Yuni at some level, at least one potential trade partner will take Izturis instead, which is going to reduce what you could hope to get for him.
In fact, what the M’s should do is sign Izturis first, and then pawn Betancourt off on somebody else for whatever they can get. Improve defense up the middle, make the M’s pitchers look better, and then pawn one of them off at the trade deadline.
I agree 100%…getting rid of Yuni should be the first and most important move for Z…he’s just gotten to the point where he has no real value…hacks at everything, never walks, no power, and his once “great” defense continues to regress…
Next Lopez…
Larue mocks the NY tabs
Does Valbuena have the arm for short?
And why Lopez don’t get me wrong if the right deal comes along then I have no problem but a move to 1B, or 3B would be fine. Not to mention moving Beltre would be much better for money and age reasons.
Re: Larue mocking the NY tabs, I thought this was funny…
Guardado? Really?! That’s like writing, “Agents will be mingling throughout the Las Vegas Convention Center trying to find teams willing to sign big-money superstars like Manny Ramirez, C.C. Sabathia, Mark Teixiera and Mike Lamb.”
How sure are we that Yuni’s defense won’t just rebound? I would think that teams would give him a chance to prove that his year wasn’t a fluke.
So if that is true, I think we shouldn’t just give Yuni away for some B prospects. Put him on the bench and see if he rebounds. He’s seems to be a low risk, high reward kind of guy to keep. What am I missing?
Yuni’s a free swinger low OBP, lazy, fat and he’s not getting any younger. Also he regressed a lot last season which is unacceptable so I say trade him for the best prospects we can get.
I hate to say this but Yuni started to go downhill once his family was safely out of Cuba. Then the Steve Sax disease/throwing problems started. What makes me hesitant to get rid of either Yuni or Johjima is remembering the string of wretched players we had at shortshop and catcher before those two arrived. However, time marches on. So if we can interest someone in Yuni, what the hell. I have way more confidence now that we can get rid of a Yuni or Johjima and actually get something of value in return, unlike Guillen or Winn or Garcia.
SCL, I think what you’re missing (and please someone correct me if I’m wrong) is, Yuni’s offense isn’t significantly worse right now than it has been so there isn’t much chance of a “rebound” there. His defense on the other hand has been steadily and rapidly going downhill – which would indicate this isn’t a fluke. So if there is a rebound there, it’s probably only going to be a “dead cat bounce.” Even if there is a rebound from this year, rebounding from horrible to merely bad isn’t going to increase his value, but will probably help people realize just how far his defense has fallen.
Because of this, much like stocks it’s better to sell high (which is where Yuni probably is now) rather than after his stock hit’s bottom (where it probably will be in a year or two) when everyone realizes his defense won’t get better.
It’s possible his defense could improve, but that would take a significant effort on his part to lose weight, get in better shape, working with strength/speed coaches, etc. However, losing weight doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll get his speed and agility back; much less his throwing accuracy. (I thought, there was a post/article about this, but can’t seem to find it. It’s late, and or I may be blind?)
Conor wrote:
Well, Eric Gagne did make $10 million last year…
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If we wait another year with Yuni we could lose out on the chance to get some talent in return. Why risk it when you could sign a better defensive SS like a Cesar Izturis or even (getting my hopes up here) signing Rafael Furcal.
[deleted, random speculation]
In stock market terms, high is where Yuni was two years ago. If Yuni were Washington Mutual, right now he’s where WaMu was one year ago, i.e., he’s way off of his high but does still have value. But one year from now ….????
Too bad the Cards already traded for Greene. I could have seen them being interested in Yuni and the Cards have quite a few interesting names beyond their top prospects. My random thought (before the Branyan signing) was that Joe Mather would be an interesting name for the M’s. Good power, seems like a late developer, and versatile defense.
Thankfully, the SS market is exceptionally thin right now. Furcal is spendy, Cabrera costs a draft pick and is fading, and everyone else is relatively putrid. At least the M’s can sell Yuni as a player with some upside.
If the M’s trade Yuni, I like someone like Iztuis or Everett as a stopgap. Black holes for bats, but the plus defense on the left side of the field would be fun to watch.
Imagine you’re the Z-Man at the GM meetings and you have two messages waiting for you in your room. One from a GM asking about Yuni’s availability and the other from a GM asking about Washburn’s availability.
Which call do you return first?
The Easter Bunny’s, because you’re dreaming and he has delicious candy.
Conor, I think you’re selling LaRue a little short. He said
Yeah, it’s “one of these things is not like the others” but he just said Eddie is looking, which of course is true (I’m sure those of us with 401Ks are looking for a sustained stock market rally, too). And he said Eddie is a specialist, but he didn’t specify in what.