Agreed; that’s why I’m hopeful. I’m just wondering how much that’s an “if,” and how much reason we have to be certain that he’s taken a permanent step forward.

And a year ago, BA ranked him as the #10 prospect in the organization. It’s really hard to imagine that they could view his 2008 as a disappointment, and with half the 2007 list graduating to the majors or getting traded away, it’s an almost impossible task to argue that the farm system is better right now than it was a year ago.

Agreed, certainly.

Winn’s an above average defender, with solid contact skills and not much power (19 MiLB HRs in about 1900 games) who maximized marginal tools. Saunders has great physical tools, but as a youngster, he’s not great defensive outfielder and is more of a power+strikeouts guy. If everything works out for Saunders, he’s more like Josh Hamilton than Winn.

I totally agree with every word here (I’m uh, I’m going to leave the political analogy alone, however). I would never argue – seriously – that Rob Johnson is a better or an equivalent hitting prospect to Tui. It’s sort of telling how close the two get, overall, when you add in context.

I should point out that we are arguing over the small patch of territory that lies between “wary” and “cautiously optimistic.”
Still, you and Dave think Tui’s 2008 represented a ‘break out season’ and thus are more optimistic than I. I think it was “about the same, only in the PCL.” Thus, we disagree about *what happened in 2008* and, to me, that sounds like a great time to look at linear weights.

If you just looked at Barack Obama and John McCain’s stance on foreign relations with Israel, they would look like the exact same person. Fortunately, there’s a broader context available, and we should avail ourselves of it.

Linear weights formulas are a great way to sum up a player’s overall value to his team over the course of an entire season. They play very little role in informing the projection of minor leaguers. For that, you need a lot of context.