Playing with Marcel
You can read more about Marcel projections here. They’re dead simple: it’s the last three years of data, weighted, with aging.
LF, RF, and designated hitters, with age, by wOBA
—
Manny Ramirez, 37, .389
Bradley, 31, .384
Dunn, 30, .372
Burrell, 33, .369
Abreau, 35, .357
Alou, 43, .351
Thomas, 41, .345
Ibanez, 37, .344
Daryle Ward, 34, .342
Juan Rivera, 31, .332
Greg Norton, 37, .339
Griffey, 40, .333
Hinske, 32, .330
Floyd, 37, .328
Luis Gonzalez, 42, .324
Anderson, 37, .319
Trot Nixon, 35, .311
Jacque Jones, 34, .310
Emil Brown, 31, .310
Michaels, 33, .303
Payton, 37, .295
Wilkerson, no, just no.
Some disclaimers to start this off: because it’s based on historical data, the number you see there might be (and sometimes is) the result of injury-ridden seasons that may or may not happen, platoons that you’d have to find the other half off, and on and on and on.
Lot of crappy-fielding outfielders on that list. Let’s group that out a little.
Players who shouldn’t wear gloves, with age, by wOBA
—
Manny Ramirez, 37, .389
Bradley, 31, .384
Dunn, 30, .372
Burrell, 33, .369
Abreau, 35, .357
Thomas, 41, .345
Ibanez, 37, .344
Daryle Ward, 34, .342
Greg Norton, 37, .339
Griffey, 40, .333
Hinske, 32, .330
Floyd, 37, .328
Luis Gonzalez, 42, .324
Anderson, 37, .319
Average-to-bad fielders
—
Alou, 43, .351
Juan Rivera, 31, .332 (I’m not confident about this placement)
Trot Nixon, 35, .311
Emil Brown, 31, .310
Plus outfielders, with age, by wOBA
—
Jacque Jones, 34, .310
Jason Michaels, 33, .303
Payton, 37, .295
I did that from memory and a quick scanning of historical PMR, because I had the PMR page up for something else, so feel free to throw your own disagreement in there. I tried to lean towards using the last few years, but that has limitations.
That’s a lot of players who can’t field their position, and there aren’t that many teams looking for DHs. Some of those butchers will end up in the field where their defense will drag down their offensive contributions. But they’re going to get paid for their bats. Go through that list and think about who might get paid what. The bargains aren’t going to be the guys with lead gloves. Unfortunately, looking at the available players, you also see that if the M’s want to improve their defense in left field by upgrading through free agency, there’s not a lot for them to shop for.
Interestingly, I think taking a flyer on Jacque Jones with an incentive laden contract will be a great fit for the M’s. I disagree with Jones being a plus OF defensively, but slightly better than average to average, sure. But you give him $1m and he can earn up to $5m. He plays LF (and can easily spot start in RF, giving Ichiro more days off), and he’s a very good fit for Safeco. No power to LF, but a fastball on his hip will hit the fair pole.
Advs:
1. He failed miserably last year. He’d come cheap, and willing to platoon or just get some at bats.
2. He’s not a bad OF, thus making the staff better
3. He has had several good years.
DisAds
1. Did you see how bad he was last year?
2. No seriously, did you see how bad he was?
Other than that, a platoon involving Hinske and someone else makes the most sense. Don’t splash money.
Derek, great stuff as always.
I wonder if the M’s have asked about Delmon Young? The Twins seem to be dangling him and need upgrades at 3B and SS. Delmon seems like the kind of young, cheap player that would be a good fit here.
Are you planning a post on possible trade targets in the OF?
I do agree, that list in terms of defense is really poor and it seems like a bunch of DH types.
Also, what’s the deal with Morse? I think he would be a possible good platoon partner with Branyan at 1B.
Then Clement could DH most of the time and catch as much as his knee would allow. Morse/Branyan could also get some AB’s at DH.
Essentially Morse/Branyan/Clement could cover 1B/DH AB’s which would mean the M’s wouldn’t need to blow a bunch of money on a Dunn type.
Then, hopefully trade for a couple of really good gloves in CF and LF.
Sorry, last post.
The other guy I would love for the M’s to ask the Twins about is Denard Span.
What about a Beltre for Span deal and then sign Joe Crede as a 1 year stop gap at 3B?
Span would be a big upgrade defensively in CF and he would bring serious speed and a high OBP guy to the top of the lineup.
Ichiro and Span hitting 1-2 at the top of the lineup would be great and then you have two excellent gloves in CF and RF.
I know Dunn has old player skills but lets not age him prematurely. He just turned 29 while sitting in his deer stand less than a month ago.. 🙂
It definitely is looking like a trade year for the M’s. There’s just no-one out here worth pursuing for a field position… sure, lock up one of the top wOBA guys for a few years at DH if you can get them cheaply enough, but that’s pretty close to the limit.
Unless you can get Beltre signed to an extension, I think at this point you have to send him off for young talent in order to fill holes like LF adequately. He and Putz would bring back some nice talent in return, and then you can avoid this whole free agency morass.
On a related side note, I believe Abreu has only one ‘a’ in his name… just a quick touch-up there.
Great post DMZ. I’m not sure I’d want either Payton, Michaels, or Jones, so I guess we need to make a trade to get a LF? You’d think LF would be easy to fill.
The real question is, what possessed you to get up before 8 AM on a Sunday and post this?
I’d argue that you don’t want anyone who projects less than a wOBA of .340 (which is roughly league average).
Really, to me, Bradley’s name just leaps off of the above list.
This isn’t a very inspiring FA list, true, but I don’t know that we therefore conclude it’s a “trade year” for the M’s. That was last year, unfortunately. This year “it’s pick up scraps and look forward to the draft,” I fear.
Bradley jumps off the list, true, but so will the contract he signs. I’d have a hard time being persuaded that paying whatever it takes to sign him is the best use of that money for the M’s.
WRT Beltre: if you don’t expect to re-sign him, do you think the best value can be obtained for him this offseason, or next July? Obviously we don’t know how he’s going to perform, but given the injury problems he had (and assuming he will be fit and healed from the surgery come ST), it’s possible he will raise his stock by the trade deadline next summer. Then again, if the right deal comes along next week…
You’d think LF would be easy to fill.
You’d think so, but pretty much the entire history of the Mariners would argue otherwise. The only time in recent memory the M’s had a decent left fielder was the Randy Winn years, and it took trading Lou Piniella to get him.
Milton Bradley is an above-average corner outfielder, according to UZR. It has him 3.2 runs above average in only 19 games in RF this year, and has him historically with good numbers in RF and CF. He hasn’t played a ton of LF, but was average there in ’07 for the Padres.
I think Bradley’s the best choice on the list. It probably won’t take a long contract to land him, and he’s still athletic enough that he shouldn’t be a disaster as he ages. I’d be almost as happy going the younger, cheaper route though.
The problem with evaluating defense is that what you really want is three years of full-season data before you make definitive answers like “he’s above-average” or whatever, so in cases where the team’s decided that a player’s defense is so bad they’re going to keep him out of the field, my inclination is to take their word for it. After all, the M’s ran Ibanez out in left… how bad would someone have to be before they pulled him?
For the most part, if you want to get a good defender through free agency, you’re going to have a hard time finding one that is also an above-average hitter. Many many players, by the time they reach free agency, have their good defending years behind them. This year is particularly short on free agent sluggers that can play D, but thinking back… it’s a pretty rare thing every year.
Or you could look at it the other way, which is that many teams don’t seem to have too much of a clue when it comes to evaluating defense. How many games did Raul stay in LF while a superior defender was at DH? How did Marlon Byrd play 70 games at an OF corner while Josh Hamilton was in CF?
Anyway, I would presume that the Rangers stuck Bradley at DH as often as they did in an attempt to keep him healthy. That’s certainly an issue the M’s would have to look deeply into if they consider signing Milton.
Yeah — that’s a better and more complete way to put it.
I have to say there’s no one on that list (a) I’d want and can afford; and (b) who will still be in the majors when the M’s win their next division title. This cries out for freeing the next young Jay Buhner from someone’s roster, not a free agent signing.
There’s no reason we can’t make a signing that would help us compete while we rebuild, something the A’s seem to think is worthwhile. In that same vein, it would sure be good to consider which of these guys we could sign without forfeiting draft picks.
Or you could look at it the other way, which is that many teams don’t seem to have too much of a clue when it comes to evaluating defense. How many games did Raul stay in LF while a superior defender was at DH? How did Marlon Byrd play 70 games at an OF corner while Josh Hamilton was in CF?
At the risk of answering rhetorical questions: perhaps there’s a psychological aspect involved.
If you replace the player with a superior defender–e.g.: Alex Rodriguez replacing Derek Jeter at shortstop–the replaced player may pout, and become very ineffective.
In some cases, it may not be worth it.
You guys will probably mention this soon, but Fangraphs now has UZR statistics for up on their website. Based on that data, Alou shouldn’t be putting on a glove anymore. And they would urge you to follow that gut instinct about Rivera and move him up the page with Manny.
Too bad we don’t have Ken Phelps anymore…damn!
1- Milton Bradley…if he’s affordable
2- Juan Rivera–best potential return for the dollar
Interesting that nobody on the list is under 30. Josh Hamilton will probably change that in two years if he’s healthy.
What strikes me most about the list isn’t that most of those guys aren’t very good defensivly. It’s that most of these guys are TERRIBLE with the glove.
You expect a certain amount of decline in fielding with age but a guy like Manny can lose you 5-6 games a year with his ineptitude in Left.
Milton Bradley is the only guy that looks appealing there.
I have to agree with nw1976, Delmon Young might be an interesting option.
[ot]
Good grief, he’s not that bad.
[ot]
Sorry man, one of my buddies is from Boston.
I’ve watched way too many Sox games over the last few years.
In the field, Manny is that bad.
[Abreu]
🙂
What about Adam Jones.
What about Adam Jones?