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	<title>Comments on: That&#8217;s okay, I&#8217;m optimistic</title>
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	<link>http://ussmariner.com/2008/12/17/thats-okay-im-optimistic/</link>
	<description>Seattle Mariners and general baseball discussion with David Cameron and Derek Zumsteg</description>
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		<title>By: ima-zeliever</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2008/12/17/thats-okay-im-optimistic/comment-page-5/#comment-307945</link>
		<dc:creator>ima-zeliever</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 20 Dec 2008 22:55:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=6909#comment-307945</guid>
		<description>Dave/DMZ,  will you guys refer to where I can read about properly valuing offense?  From what I am seeing, it seems that Ichiro (dare I say...) is over-valued in what he brings offensively.  Is that your opinion?  Is there any chance that Z would trade him either now or at the deadline?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dave/DMZ,  will you guys refer to where I can read about properly valuing offense?  From what I am seeing, it seems that Ichiro (dare I say&#8230;) is over-valued in what he brings offensively.  Is that your opinion?  Is there any chance that Z would trade him either now or at the deadline?</p>
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		<title>By: mydquinn</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2008/12/17/thats-okay-im-optimistic/comment-page-5/#comment-307937</link>
		<dc:creator>mydquinn</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 20 Dec 2008 10:30:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=6909#comment-307937</guid>
		<description>Just for fun, cherry pick the best 2007 or 2008 stats from the Ms roster.  Yes, it is cherry picking and I used crude stats, but the whole point is to see what is possible.  It&#039;s not like I am dipping into ancient history for stats.

Compare them to 2008 Tampa Bay!  You can&#039;t tell me this team does not have a shot.

LF: Carl Crawford (.273, 8 HR, 18 net SBvs. Ken Griffey or other mid-level free agent LF (.275 BA, 20-25 HRs)
CF: BJ Upton (.273, 9 HR, 28 net SB) vs. Franklin Gutierrez (.275 BA, 15 HRs, 15 net SBs projected)
RF: Eric Hinske (.247, 20 HR) vs. Ichiro Suzuki (.351 BA, 39 net SBs)
C: Dioner Navarro (.295, 7HR) vs. Kenji Johjima (.287 BA, 14 HRs)
1B: Carlos Pena (.247, 31HR) vs. Russ Branyan/Shelton (.260 BA, 20-25 HRs projected)
2B: Akinori Iwamura (.274, 6 HR) vs. Jose Lopez (.297 BA, 17 HRs)
SS: Jason Bartlett (.286, 1 HR, 14 net SB) vs. Yuniesky Betancourt (.289 BA, 9 HRs)
3B: Evan Longaria (.272, 27 HR) vs. Adrian Beltre (.276, 26 HRs, 12 net SBs)
DH: Cliff Floyd (.268, 11 HR) vs. Jeff Clement/Morse (.280 BA, 15-20 HRs projected)

1. Scott Kazmir (3.49 era) vs. Erik Bedard (3.18 era)
2. James Shields (3.56 era) vs. Felix Hernandez (3.45 era)
3. Matt Garza (3.70 era) vs. Rowland Smith (3.50 era as a starter)
4. Andy Sonnanstine (4.38 era) vs. Carlos Silva (4.19 era)
5. Edwin Jackson (4.42 era) vs. Miguel Batista (4.29 era)

Other P:
Percival  (4.47 era) vs. Jarrod Washburn (4.32 era)
Balfour (1.54 era) vs. Morrow (1.47 era as a RP)
Howell (2.22 era) vs. Heilman (3.03 era)
Wheeler (3.12  era) vs. Corcoran (3.32 era)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Just for fun, cherry pick the best 2007 or 2008 stats from the Ms roster.  Yes, it is cherry picking and I used crude stats, but the whole point is to see what is possible.  It&#8217;s not like I am dipping into ancient history for stats.</p>
<p>Compare them to 2008 Tampa Bay!  You can&#8217;t tell me this team does not have a shot.</p>
<p>LF: Carl Crawford (.273, 8 HR, 18 net SBvs. Ken Griffey or other mid-level free agent LF (.275 BA, 20-25 HRs)<br />
CF: BJ Upton (.273, 9 HR, 28 net SB) vs. Franklin Gutierrez (.275 BA, 15 HRs, 15 net SBs projected)<br />
RF: Eric Hinske (.247, 20 HR) vs. Ichiro Suzuki (.351 BA, 39 net SBs)<br />
C: Dioner Navarro (.295, 7HR) vs. Kenji Johjima (.287 BA, 14 HRs)<br />
1B: Carlos Pena (.247, 31HR) vs. Russ Branyan/Shelton (.260 BA, 20-25 HRs projected)<br />
2B: Akinori Iwamura (.274, 6 HR) vs. Jose Lopez (.297 BA, 17 HRs)<br />
SS: Jason Bartlett (.286, 1 HR, 14 net SB) vs. Yuniesky Betancourt (.289 BA, 9 HRs)<br />
3B: Evan Longaria (.272, 27 HR) vs. Adrian Beltre (.276, 26 HRs, 12 net SBs)<br />
DH: Cliff Floyd (.268, 11 HR) vs. Jeff Clement/Morse (.280 BA, 15-20 HRs projected)</p>
<p>1. Scott Kazmir (3.49 era) vs. Erik Bedard (3.18 era)<br />
2. James Shields (3.56 era) vs. Felix Hernandez (3.45 era)<br />
3. Matt Garza (3.70 era) vs. Rowland Smith (3.50 era as a starter)<br />
4. Andy Sonnanstine (4.38 era) vs. Carlos Silva (4.19 era)<br />
5. Edwin Jackson (4.42 era) vs. Miguel Batista (4.29 era)</p>
<p>Other P:<br />
Percival  (4.47 era) vs. Jarrod Washburn (4.32 era)<br />
Balfour (1.54 era) vs. Morrow (1.47 era as a RP)<br />
Howell (2.22 era) vs. Heilman (3.03 era)<br />
Wheeler (3.12  era) vs. Corcoran (3.32 era)</p>
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		<title>By: Teej</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2008/12/17/thats-okay-im-optimistic/comment-page-4/#comment-307764</link>
		<dc:creator>Teej</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Dec 2008 23:48:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=6909#comment-307764</guid>
		<description>&lt;em&gt;Would it be fair to say that Silva is above average at not giving up flyballs?&lt;/em&gt;

Probably.

League average, according to Dave&#039;s &lt;a href=&quot;http://ussmariner.com/2006/08/29/evaluating-pitcher-talent/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;article&lt;/a&gt;, is 36%.

Silva&#039;s been steadily in the 33-34% range for the past three years. In 2008, he saw his GB% dip as his LD% rose.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Would it be fair to say that Silva is above average at not giving up flyballs?</em></p>
<p>Probably.</p>
<p>League average, according to Dave&#8217;s <a href="http://ussmariner.com/2006/08/29/evaluating-pitcher-talent/" rel="nofollow">article</a>, is 36%.</p>
<p>Silva&#8217;s been steadily in the 33-34% range for the past three years. In 2008, he saw his GB% dip as his LD% rose.</p>
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		<title>By: joser</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2008/12/17/thats-okay-im-optimistic/comment-page-4/#comment-307740</link>
		<dc:creator>joser</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Dec 2008 22:01:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=6909#comment-307740</guid>
		<description>The Yanks biggest problem is that they have to play 34 games against either the Red Sox or the Rays.  And yeah, even after jettisoning Abreau and Giambi, with guys like Damon and Matsui still on the team they&#039;re getting old and creaky.  Heck, Jeter is going to be 35 and even the people who have been long deluded about his supposed defensive prowess have started to notice he&#039;s lost a step.

&lt;i&gt;Did Z get Endy as a platoon player or as a 4th OF?&lt;/i&gt;

Maybe he took him because that was the last piece in the deal and he was the highest value of the players the Mets made available.  When you&#039;re doing a 12-man three-team deal, nobody is getting &lt;i&gt;every&lt;/i&gt;thing they want, but you&#039;re trying to maximize the value you get back for what you&#039;re giving up.  Now, if you&#039;re somebody like Bavasi who fetishizes &quot;roles&quot; &lt;i&gt;and&lt;/i&gt; is bad at valuing talent, you might take a bad deal because it gives you exactly the players you can plug into the holes in your system, even if those players aren&#039;t as good as other choices who would seem to be redundant on your roster.  If you&#039;re a smarter GM, you take the best value and see where that gets you.  You can always package and flip guys in later deals, or platoon people, or make them fight it out in spring training and send the losers to Tacoma (unless they&#039;re out of options) with a chance to come back up in case of suckage/injury.

&lt;i&gt;Unfortunately, I’m not talented at coming up with nicknames… Franklin Rafael Gutierrez… Any takers?&lt;/i&gt;

FRaG?  Gooty?  (I&#039;m guessing his fellow players/coaches call him that, or Frankie)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Yanks biggest problem is that they have to play 34 games against either the Red Sox or the Rays.  And yeah, even after jettisoning Abreau and Giambi, with guys like Damon and Matsui still on the team they&#8217;re getting old and creaky.  Heck, Jeter is going to be 35 and even the people who have been long deluded about his supposed defensive prowess have started to notice he&#8217;s lost a step.</p>
<p><i>Did Z get Endy as a platoon player or as a 4th OF?</i></p>
<p>Maybe he took him because that was the last piece in the deal and he was the highest value of the players the Mets made available.  When you&#8217;re doing a 12-man three-team deal, nobody is getting <i>every</i>thing they want, but you&#8217;re trying to maximize the value you get back for what you&#8217;re giving up.  Now, if you&#8217;re somebody like Bavasi who fetishizes &#8220;roles&#8221; <i>and</i> is bad at valuing talent, you might take a bad deal because it gives you exactly the players you can plug into the holes in your system, even if those players aren&#8217;t as good as other choices who would seem to be redundant on your roster.  If you&#8217;re a smarter GM, you take the best value and see where that gets you.  You can always package and flip guys in later deals, or platoon people, or make them fight it out in spring training and send the losers to Tacoma (unless they&#8217;re out of options) with a chance to come back up in case of suckage/injury.</p>
<p><i>Unfortunately, I’m not talented at coming up with nicknames… Franklin Rafael Gutierrez… Any takers?</i></p>
<p>FRaG?  Gooty?  (I&#8217;m guessing his fellow players/coaches call him that, or Frankie)</p>
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		<title>By: SonOfZavaras</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2008/12/17/thats-okay-im-optimistic/comment-page-4/#comment-307699</link>
		<dc:creator>SonOfZavaras</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Dec 2008 19:41:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=6909#comment-307699</guid>
		<description>Jim Street would rub his hands together in glee if they promised him a candy cane for Christmas.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Jim Street would rub his hands together in glee if they promised him a candy cane for Christmas.</p>
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		<title>By: Benne</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2008/12/17/thats-okay-im-optimistic/comment-page-4/#comment-307691</link>
		<dc:creator>Benne</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Dec 2008 19:23:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=6909#comment-307691</guid>
		<description>I&#039;m just going with &quot;Gutz.&quot;  Simple, to the point, and has potential for many, many witty headlines.  Jim Street is rubbing his hands together in glee right now.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m just going with &#8220;Gutz.&#8221;  Simple, to the point, and has potential for many, many witty headlines.  Jim Street is rubbing his hands together in glee right now.</p>
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		<title>By: SonOfZavaras</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2008/12/17/thats-okay-im-optimistic/comment-page-4/#comment-307690</link>
		<dc:creator>SonOfZavaras</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Dec 2008 19:22:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=6909#comment-307690</guid>
		<description>Initials FRG....hmmm...Fergie?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Initials FRG&#8230;.hmmm&#8230;Fergie?</p>
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		<title>By: terry</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2008/12/17/thats-okay-im-optimistic/comment-page-4/#comment-307689</link>
		<dc:creator>terry</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Dec 2008 19:20:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=6909#comment-307689</guid>
		<description>Would it be fair to say that Silva is above average at not giving up flyballs?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Would it be fair to say that Silva is above average at not giving up flyballs?</p>
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		<title>By: SonOfZavaras</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2008/12/17/thats-okay-im-optimistic/comment-page-4/#comment-307688</link>
		<dc:creator>SonOfZavaras</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Dec 2008 19:18:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=6909#comment-307688</guid>
		<description>Regarding a nickname for Franklin Gutierrez, and I agree &quot;F-Gut&quot; doesn&#039;t have the ring of right to it...hmmm....

&quot;Frankie Good Glove&quot;? &quot;Frankie Five Fingers&quot;? &quot;Frankie Gutz&quot;? Or just plain &quot;Guti&quot;?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Regarding a nickname for Franklin Gutierrez, and I agree &#8220;F-Gut&#8221; doesn&#8217;t have the ring of right to it&#8230;hmmm&#8230;.</p>
<p>&#8220;Frankie Good Glove&#8221;? &#8220;Frankie Five Fingers&#8221;? &#8220;Frankie Gutz&#8221;? Or just plain &#8220;Guti&#8221;?</p>
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		<title>By: Benne</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2008/12/17/thats-okay-im-optimistic/comment-page-4/#comment-307684</link>
		<dc:creator>Benne</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Dec 2008 18:21:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=6909#comment-307684</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;no, I just couldn’t figure out why ESPN would be doing 4th outfielder Mariner highlights in December, 2009 optimism or no.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Slow news cycle.  The Yankees and Red Sox haven&#039;t done anything big as of late, there hasn&#039;t been any TO/Cowboys drama lately, Brett Favre hasn&#039;t retired again, and Notre Dame still sucks.  So yeah, nothing worth covering for ESPN.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>no, I just couldn’t figure out why ESPN would be doing 4th outfielder Mariner highlights in December, 2009 optimism or no.</p></blockquote>
<p>Slow news cycle.  The Yankees and Red Sox haven&#8217;t done anything big as of late, there hasn&#8217;t been any TO/Cowboys drama lately, Brett Favre hasn&#8217;t retired again, and Notre Dame still sucks.  So yeah, nothing worth covering for ESPN.</p>
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