A Team Worth Gambling On?
With the current roster, I have the M’s pegged as something like a 78 win team. Obviously, there are a lot of variables in there – can Clement catch regularly, does Bedard stay healthy, is Heilman able to close, how do Balentien/Chavez split time in left, and so on – that could go either way, so perhaps it’s more accurate to say that I think this team is likely to win somewhere between 72 and 84 games if there are no changes to the roster between now and the end of the year.
I think most people are expecting something in that 72-78 range, which is certainly possible, given the uncertainties at so many positions. However, if I’m right about the mean level of talent, that means that 84 wins is just as likely as 72 (probably a bit more likely, actually, as my 78 win estimate includes a good deal of pessimism about Clement/Balentien/Lopez, and the upside is higher than the downside with those three), and the A.L. West isn’t very good right now.
After losing Teixeira and K-Rod, I have the Angels at something like 85 wins. The A’s check in at 83 wins, and the Rangers at 82. Again, these are all preliminary estimates based on non-finalized rosters, but since we’re still in the middle of the off season, this is what we go off of.
So, here’s a question – what are the odds of this roster winning 86 or more games in 2009? Based on binomial distribution, a 78 win team (.481 win%) would win 86+ out of 162 games about 9% of the time. Some good bounces here or there, a couple close wins that the team might not have deserved, and all of the sudden a true talent 78 win club has an 86-76 record. Considering the relative weakness of the division, we’d essentially be saying that the M’s have about a 1 in 11 chance of contending for the AL West, given current rosters.
But, let’s say the team made a little bit of a splash and went out and signed a +3 win free agent – for the sake of argument, we’ll call that guy Milton Bradley – and we adjusted our projection upwards to factor in the new guy, giving us an 81 win true talent team. The odds of an 81 win team winning 86+ games out of 162 – 19%.
In other words, if I’m right about the current talent levels of the respective teams in the division, the Mariners’ chances of contending for the division title would roughly double. Is that something the organization should be interested in? Absolutely, because the payoff for making the playoffs is pretty substantial. For instance, let’s just use a couple hypothetical scenarios here.
Current Roster
72 to 85 wins – 91%, net loss of $5 million
86 to 95 wins – 9%, net gain of $25 million
Expected Value of Current Roster: -$2.25 million
Roster +3 Win Player
72 to 85 wins – 81%, net loss of $6 million
86 to 95 wins – 19%, net gain of $25 million
Expected Value of Roster + 3 Win Player: -0.11 million
if the team could add a three win player without a substantial hit to their payroll (it’s doable, but would probably require giving up a decent prospect to move some dead weight salary – Washburn is the obvious candidate), the Mariners could get themselves into a position where the odds of a playoff berth become a bit more realistic, and the upside of that kind of positive year far outweighs the economic downside of adding a multiyear contract to the books.
It’s not a sure thing that the M’s should certainly go for, as there’s lots of other variables to consider. This is an extremely rudimentary analysis, but simply serves to illustrate the point that there’s a legitimate option for the organization to view the weakened division as an opportunity to grab an unexpected playoff spot and revitalize interest in the on field product. If there’s a real chance for them to add a +3 win player to the roster without destroying the farm system or getting into a horrible bidding war, it could have a real, tangible payoff for the franchise.
It’s worth looking at, and I hope Zduriencik and company are doing just that.
First off thanks cmc…wasn’t thinking about defensive factors or platooning. Still, I’d prefer a solid everyday 1Bman to a platoon…or branyan 🙂
As for eponymous, my point was simply that the braves didn’t take one simple season (or one signing). In addition to pendleton, they also brought in otis nixon, rafael belliard and other key guys like alejandro pena and charlie liebrandt (in addition to bringing in pendleton) to make the 91 run…a little more than one +3 hitter. But my main point was that there is no true one-season turnaround for anyone ever. Players take time/ But again, I agree with Dave. I was responding specifically about the braves (as they were my first baseball love, predating my mariners courtship by a year or two). 🙂
Otherwise, I think we’re arguing the same point in different ways.
But my main point was that there is no true one-season turnaround for anyone ever.
Well, actually, there’s the 1961 Reds (worst to first), the 1967 Red Sox (worst to first), the 1991 Twins (worst to first, just like the Braves), and more. Rebuilds do not always take longer than a year, if you can make enough astute roster moves and you get lucky.
But good to know we’re arguing the same point: we don’t need to raise the white flag on 2009 if Zdurencik can make some additional moves. My wish list is basically a) a superior defensive infielder to replace one of Yuni or Lopez and b) another hitter with some breakout potential, to take the offense from where it is now (below average) up a bit (and if necessary, finding a Branyan/Shelton one year, reasonably inexpensive fill-in for the OF if we have to trade Wlad as part of a package to fill in those holes mentioned above, and the hitter we get as the +3 WAR guy is a DH).
Well, act
I know worst-to-firsts have happened. What I mean is they are the product of several years leading up to that point. All those teams involved homegrown talent that took much more than a single season to cultivate. They all made splashes and brought in key players too. That’s all I mean in saying no true worst-to-first.
BAF4L-
No worries. I missed the part where you said “everyday.”
I really wish there was an impact Free Agent SS out there for the M’s, but it doesn’t look like one is available. That leaves the team to either trade for one or stand pat.
I still think some kind of Wlad, Rob Johnson, and pitching (Washburn or Batista in a salary dump or RRS or Heilman for a better player) package could bring back a large upgrade at SS. It would also open up some slots on the 40 man roster.
With two Rule 5 players (assuming they make it past spring training), there isn’t the bench depth to do another every day platoon.
+3 WAR player (M.Bradley) would have to be replacing a replacement level player in the starting lineup to get a full 3 win upgrade, right? Haven’t looked over your roster, but who would that starting replacement level player be?
vr, Xei
SS, LF, and DH are all probably replacement level or barely over right now. 2B (Jose Lopez has more walks -13- than Ks -12- in Winter League), 3B, 1B platoon, RF, and possibly CF & C are all approximately league average or better.
Real exciting post – I am confident Big Z will do make the right moves.
He has stated numerous times that he believes we have the talent to compete now. I can’t wait till pitchers and catchers meet as I am counting down the days over here on cold Queen Anne …
Speaking of cold, Peoria anyone? Would love to get a USSM crew to roll down to Spring Training this year
Would be interested…