He has stated numerous times that he believes we have the talent to compete now. I can’t wait till pitchers and catchers meet as I am counting down the days over here on cold Queen Anne …

Speaking of cold, Peoria anyone? Would love to get a USSM crew to roll down to Spring Training this year

Would be interested…

+3 WAR player (M.Bradley) would have to be replacing a replacement level player in the starting lineup to get a full 3 win upgrade, right? Haven’t looked over your roster, but who would that starting replacement level player be?

3B: Beltre +3.5 WAR
2B: Lopez +2 WAR
SS: Betancourt +0.5 WAR
1B: Branyan/Morse (or Shelton) +2.5 WAR
C: Kenji/Clement +2 WAR
RF: Ichiro +3.5 WAR
CF: Gutierrez +2 WAR
LF: Chavez +0.5 WAR
DH: Wlad/Morse/Shelton/Clement 0 WAR

SS, LF, and DH are all probably replacement level or barely over right now. 2B (Jose Lopez has more walks -13- than Ks -12- in Winter League), 3B, 1B platoon, RF, and possibly CF & C are all approximately league average or better.

No worries. I missed the part where you said “everyday.”

I really wish there was an impact Free Agent SS out there for the M’s, but it doesn’t look like one is available. That leaves the team to either trade for one or stand pat.

I still think some kind of Wlad, Rob Johnson, and pitching (Washburn or Batista in a salary dump or RRS or Heilman for a better player) package could bring back a large upgrade at SS. It would also open up some slots on the 40 man roster.

With two Rule 5 players (assuming they make it past spring training), there isn’t the bench depth to do another every day platoon.

ually, there’s the 1961 Reds (worst to first), the 1967 Red Sox (worst to first), the 1991 Twins (worst to first, just like the Braves), and more. Rebuilds do not always take longer than a year, if you can make enough astute roster moves and you get lucky.

I know worst-to-firsts have happened. What I mean is they are the product of several years leading up to that point. All those teams involved homegrown talent that took much more than a single season to cultivate. They all made splashes and brought in key players too. That’s all I mean in saying no true worst-to-first.

Well, actually, there’s the 1961 Reds (worst to first), the 1967 Red Sox (worst to first), the 1991 Twins (worst to first, just like the Braves), and more. Rebuilds do not always take longer than a year, if you can make enough astute roster moves and you get lucky.

But good to know we’re arguing the same point: we don’t need to raise the white flag on 2009 if Zdurencik can make some additional moves. My wish list is basically a) a superior defensive infielder to replace one of Yuni or Lopez and b) another hitter with some breakout potential, to take the offense from where it is now (below average) up a bit (and if necessary, finding a Branyan/Shelton one year, reasonably inexpensive fill-in for the OF if we have to trade Wlad as part of a package to fill in those holes mentioned above, and the hitter we get as the +3 WAR guy is a DH).

As for eponymous, my point was simply that the braves didn’t take one simple season (or one signing). In addition to pendleton, they also brought in otis nixon, rafael belliard and other key guys like alejandro pena and charlie liebrandt (in addition to bringing in pendleton) to make the 91 run…a little more than one +3 hitter. But my main point was that there is no true one-season turnaround for anyone ever. Players take time/ But again, I agree with Dave. I was responding specifically about the braves (as they were my first baseball love, predating my mariners courtship by a year or two).
Otherwise, I think we’re arguing the same point in different ways.

Bradley scores a lot of runs per AB. About 19% compared to Ichiro’s 15%.

Which tells you a lot more about who was batting behind each of them than it tells you anything about those guys themselves.

Good point! I thought about that after I wrote it. I was thinking OPS, but at some point you are at the mercy of the guys coming up to bat…advantage Texas.

Right, but the point being made is that if the right circumstances present themselves, it does not take years to rebuild. Please note that one thing the Braves did was add someone who was quite probably a 3 WAR player (as well as providing value on offense AND defense): Terry Pendleton.

That’s all Dave is saying- the circumstances exist where this team could be competitive in 2009 without mortgaging 2010 and later years, if you do this right. Nobody’s talking about trading a package of Morrow, Aumont and Truinfel for this year’s Erik Bedard, signing Ken Griffey Jr. to a multiyear deal, and basically repeating the disasters of the Bavasi regime. He’s arguing you could make an intelligent addition or two to the roster and keep yourself in good position to win further down the road.

My attitude is that five-year plans are for Soviet Union-style command economies. If you have a reasonable shot, take it.

Again, are we really expecting Branyan to be our everyday 1Bman? This is a guy [who's] 33 (or will be this season), has only played more than 100 games in a season twice, and has never totaled more than 378 at-bats. How this is an upgrade over Richie is beyond me.

Lets start with defense (UZR/150):
Sexson 2007: -16.7
Sexson 2008: -16.0

Branyan at 1B (career): 3.3
Branyan at 3B (career): -7.1

Morse at SS (career): -21.9
While Morse doesn’t have enough innings at 1B to make his numbers there relavent, I think it is fair to say that he will be an above average 1B.

So just defensively, a Branyan/Morse (or Shelton) platoon would be about a 20 run upgrade over Sexson.

Averaging the Marcel and Bill James 2009 projections for Branyan and Morse (which include their historical platoon tendencies) we see that Branyan is projected for a .349 wOBA and Morse is in line for a .350 (though that needs to be taken with a huge grain of salt because of sample size issues).

Sexson put up a wOBA of .305 in 1007 and .314 in 2008. Even if you give him the benefit of the doubt and say he was a .320 wOBA bat, that’s about a 30 point spread for the Branyan/Morse platoon over Sexson. 30 points over 600 ABs is (.030/1.15)*600 = 15.65 Runs.

So a Branyan/Morse platoon would be approximately 35 runs better than Sexson at 1B. Given that a .320 wOBA Sexson would be about a -1.5 WAR player, that would make that platoon about a +2 WAR 1B (a little lower than my eyeballed +2.5 WAR number).

Morse would also make a decent 5th OF and 3B in case of injuries. In my mind, that’s what makes him a more viable platoon partner for Branyan than Shelton.

Also, career tOPS+ splits for Branyan, Shelton, and Morse from Baseball-Reference:
Branyan vs LH: 78
Branyan vs RH: 103
Morse vs LH: 122
Morse vs RH: 85
Shelton vs LH: 84
Shelton vs RH: 107