Innings Eater Value
I know a lot of fans out there are holding out hope that the Mariners will be able to move one of Washburn, Silva, or Batista at some point this year. After all, it was only a few months ago that the Yankeees were willing to take Washburn’s entire salary, and even though the market has taken a big step backwards, the M’s should still be able to pawn off some of the salary due to one of these guys, right?
Maybe not. Tim Redding, the closest free agent resembling Washburn, has agreed to sign with the Mets for $2.5 million for 2009. Redding was worth about 0.9 wins over a replacement level starter last year, while Washburn was worth about 1.1 wins over replacement. Redding got 25% of what Washburn is owed for 2009.
You could make an argument that Washburn has a better health track record, was a little bit better, and is left-handed, so he’s worth a little bit more than a guy like Redding. But not much more. Really, the Redding signing probably caps Washburn’s market value at around $4 million or so. In other words, to move Washburn, we need to assume that the M’s would have to eat about $6 million of his contract right now. For Batista, it’s probably more like $8 million of the $9 million he’s owed, and Silva’s just not tradeable right now.
The team has an overflow of potential starting pitchers, but the ones they’d like to get rid of, no one is going to want. Right now, it’s pretty safe to say that Felix, Bedard, Morrow, Washburn, and Silva is going to be the starting rotation coming out of spring training. Ryan Rowland-Smith and Aaron Heilman should both be prepared to begin the season as relievers, because there’s just no room at the inn.
The only possibility I see would be that sometime during the season, some team gets desperate for a starting pitcher while Washburn gets off to a hot start via a low BABIP.
That sucks! But it is what it is. Do yo see the M’s moving either Heilman or RRS to break up the log-jam? Does RRS go back to Tacoma to return when a starter comes up hurt? Did Z touch on any plans to thin out the rotation some?
I think both Washburn and Heilman will be traded before the start of the season. I agree that trading Washburn will require either some money thrown into the deal or it would have to include a young player as well. I don’t see Heilman as a closer and he doesn’t fit into the rotation, but I do believe he has some value as a 5th starter for an NL team.
If we’re stuck with them, what can we expect from them? I would think with an improved defensive outfield, they’d be more likely to survive those “big” innings, that killed ’em last year.
Does anyone remember what the reasoning was behind not getting rid of Washburn last year? I seem to remember hearing something like Armstrong wouldn’t let Pelekoudas do it. I’ve been steaming about that non-trade all winter long, and especially now after hearing we’re near our payroll limit.
Imagine what Z could pull off with 10 million left in his budget right now! I wish I could erase so many things from last year from my memory…
What value would Wash represent at the end of the year in terms of comp or do you not see them offering arb if it came to that? There could be some value there for a team acquiring him as well.
I think Wash gets moved in spring training when some team loses a starter to injury otherwise it will be at the deadline when his cost is minimal and his numbers look good due to our new awesome outfield defense.
I could see Batista getting moved at the deadline as well in a similar scenario, ie his numbers look good due to an improved Seattle defense. Of course in both scenarios I would expect Seattle to send some cash as well.
Silva? He’ll be an anchor for a few more years…
This points to what I hope sustains as a big difference in the Mariners now versus six months ago.
Six months ago when the Mariners had the opportunity to clear Washburn’s contract, Armstrong said “No” because he didn’t see value coming back. But, IIRC, Armstrong said another factor was that by approving the deal he would be reducing the new General Manager’s flexibility by creating a hole in the rotation that the new GM would be forced to fill.
I’d like to say that comment sealed my opinion about the Mariners front office, but that wasn’t the nail that sealed the coffin housing the Mariners corpse. That coffin was completed and sealed long ago. This was really just one more nail from a 1000-nail clip feeding the nail gun the Mariners were using build the mausoleum around the crypt in which the Mariners coffin had been placed.
Geoff Baker reported that the Mariners worked closely with Matt Olkin after the 2007 season assessing the team’s true talent and capabilities. I see no reason to assume that the facts as reported by Geoff are inaccurate. But that then leaves me wondering about what information was provided and how Armstrong could have left any kind of competent presentation believing that Washburn with his contract was somehow a valuable asset.
Sure there’s a lot of enthusiasm about the current Mariners direction. Of course there will be times when we wonder what they are thinking, just as now occurs with some of the franchises we’ve thought of as models for how we would like to see the Mariners operate. But I am optimistic that the current Mariners baseball operations staff sees Washburn, Silva, and Batista for what they are. I’m also optimistic that they will switch one or more of that threesome to the bullpen if they believe the team would be improved if RRS or Heilman moved into the rotation.
Silva? He’ll be an anchor for a few more years…
I hope you mean an anchor in the sense that if you threw him off the side of a large ship with a chain attached, the ship would stay stationary.
If we have better starter options, we should relegate Silva to a mop-up role.
Don’t start him just because he’s expensive.
As bad as Silva was last year, he’s still a +1 to +1.5 win pitcher going forward. He’s not useless, just massively overpaid.
I’m not sure where I heard it from, and it’s probably a really dumb rumor, but any chance that the Cubs are trying to unload Fukudome? And is there any chance a Silva/Washburn for Fukudome trade could be done if we ate some of Silva’s contract? I didn’t really give the rumor any serious attention before, but with the signing of Milton Bradley, the Cubs seem to have a glut of OFers?
Besides this, is our best case scenario just to hope that our 3 centerfielders make one of the three pitchers look good, and we sell high (or at least as high as they’re ever going to get) at the deadline?
Also, Dave, I read your previous comment as “massively overweight” and almost choked on my sandwich.
hehe…Silva…massive…
And these guys are all sunk costs. So if they’re your best option, go with them. If not, throw them over the side.
We may not keep Heilman in that mix for too long. From ESPN. I sure wouldn’t mind picking up Cedeno from them though; fill Willie’s role nicely. Would like to see what else we could pry from them though…
Aaron M.
Dave –
I know YOU think that Redding and Washburn are comparable, but do MLB front offices (besides ours, perhaps)?
Use any tool you want – tRA, ERA+, xFIP, hell, ERA, Wins, whatever, and Washburn looks better. Not good, mind you, but better. I can see a decent agent claiming he’s a great buy-low starter who’s been victimized by an awful M’s defense.
Redding’s health problems have meant that he simply can’t be considered an ‘innings eater.’ It’s possible that guys like Redding – and the overall economy – will depress the market for true ‘innings eaters’ like Jon Garland and Washburn. But I’m just not sure that the Redding signing tells us much at this point.
Disclaimer: nobody should read this as an apologia for Garland/Washburn. I know they’re not good, and I know that Redding’s a better value. I’m simply asking about the market here, and if the market suddenly learned how to value low-K pitchers in the past 12 months.
Wash will get traded…so will Heilman (or he’s in the pen)…Batista to the pen…RRS to the pen or Tacoma…the rotation:
Felix, Bedard, Morrow, Silva, Wash (until traded) and RRS moves up then…
All Z has to do to make it work is deal Wash and tell a couple guys to wait it out.
We don’t know how Silva’s back is or how Bedard’s shoulder is.
If those two are hurt still, then Felix, Morrow, RRS, Wash, and Batista could be the starting five…
I’m optimistic he will make the pitching and defense very solid, if not very very good…
It’s the offense I’m worried about at this point…
We’d have to eat a ton of contract to move Silva. The man is owed $34 million over the next three years. He and Washburn are not going anywhere this year, especially in the preseason.
Right now, I’m actually hoping that our renewed emphasis on defense pays off with guys like Washburn and Silva. It should make them look better now that they’re not pitching in front of Ibanez and Brad Wilkerson.
Cedeno sucks and if that is all we got from the Cubs for Heilman than Z will be getting ripped off big time…
Actually, Cedeno’s a pretty decent young player, and an outstanding buy low opportunity.
FWIW, all of the projection systems have Silva being better next year than he was in ’08 (hard for him to be worse and still starting, really). And certainly historically he hasn’t been that bad, so unless you think he’s fallen off a cliff he should be better, and that improved defense can’t hurt. He is still massively overpaid, however. When Fangraphs gets $/Win up for pitchers, it’s going to be ugly.
If you want Dave’s take on what went down last summer when the Yankees asked for Washburn, you should listen to that blogtalk interview he gave (Dave comes in about the 55:30 mark; his take on the Washburn situation starts at about 1:12:45)
Okay…sucks is probably a little harsh, but giving up Heilman for a bench player probably isn’t a good deal…if that Cubs rumor is true and we could send Heilman and 1 bad pitcher contract for Cedeno and 1 of the OF that Lou hates (Fukudome or Pie) then the trade would be better…
I was even thinking Heilman for Ceneno and a single-A prospect or AA guy…something like that qould equate more.
I’m still hoping that Milwalkee – with Doug Melvin repeatedly saying they’re not players in the major FA pitching market – and the M’s make a pitching for SS / 1B deal.
But given the new management teams’ lack of history with the current crop of M’s players, maybe they’ll wait until Spring Training or later to do a deal. I have a feeling they’ll want to avoid the types of deals the M’s had with Cleveland in the past.
Dave/DMZ/Conor-
I have a hard time understanding which players can start the year in Tacoma and which ones would have to pass through waivers first to get sent down. I’ll looked at the 40 man roster on ProspectInsider, but I am not sure what everything means.
With 20 pitchers on the 40 man, who can the team start in Tacoma and below? Are there 7-8 players who can begin the year in the minors and then come up later or are the M’s going to have to trade/cut/waive some players?
If I’m reading ProspectInsider right, anyone with Options can be send down to start the season… Those players are:
Player (Options) – My thoughts (whatever they are worth)
Probably with the M’s (6 players):
Bedard (1) – If not fully healthy to start the season, he could do rehab in Tacoma.
Corcoran (3) – Could start in Tacoma if he had to, but he might be the most effective RH RP on the team.
Heilman (1) – I can’t imagine he’ll be anywhere but in Seattle to start the season. Maybe if they want to give him the Morrow treatment and have him start in AAA for a month to make sure he’s ready to be a big league starter.
Cesar Jimenez (1) – Projected FIP around 4.25. Probably starts the year with the M’s.
Mark Lowe (1) – Projected FIP around 4.25. Probably starts the year with the M’s if healthy.
RRS (1) – Probably as good or better than Silva/Washburn/Batista, but he can start the year in AAA until one of the above can be moved or is hurt.
In the minors (5 players):
Feirabend (1) – starting the year in Tacoma.
Gaby Hernandez (3) – starting the year in Tacoma.
Stephen Kahn (3) – 2009 in the minors.
Justin Thomas (3) – CHONE projects a 6.04 FIP for ’09 with the M’s. He’s probably better starting in Tacoma.
Marwin Vega (3) – 2009 in the minors.
Guys with no options or no way they won’t start with the MLB club (unless traded, waived, or cut)(9 players):
Miguel Batista
Jose Lugo (Rule 5)
Felix Hernandez
Randy Messenger
Brandon Morrow
Carlos Silva
Jarrod Washburn
Jason Vargas
Tyler Walker
So that’s 9 guys who will definately start the year with the M’s, 5 who will spend most or all of 2009 in the minors, and 6 guys who need to start the year somewhere. Spring Training should be interesting…
Another Mama Cass moment brought to you by contemplating the weighty subject that is Silva.
Dave, of those three, which are more likely to see a positive regression, especially considering that new management is improving the defense? I’m not really expecting any of them to meet their contracts in value, but who’s likely to recover the most?
If it’s been established already that Silva’s salary is a sunk cost and the M’s are moving forward, why the heck should they feel obligated to put him as the #5 starter when R-R Smith would do a much better job at that spot?
I don’t care how much he makes or eats, Silva is better off out of the way as a long reliever on this team the same way Jeff Cirillo’s butt was better suited to the bench towards the end of his Mariner career.
Silva is a better starter than RRS.
Dave-
Really? You think that Silva would have a better 2009 than RRS?
Dave, Just trying to clear this up. So you are saying RRS should start in the bullpen because he is not better than Silva or Wash, correct? You’re not suggesting the people that get paid the most play.
Well, remember also that it’s best to have about seven potential starters coming out of spring training because of injuries and suckitude. Yuni apparently has lost a lot of weight and Felix did so last offseason. I haven’t heard the same about Silva and that could keep him on the DL with back “issues” (read “problems.”).
Yes, this team is better with Silva in the rotation and RRS in the pen than vice versa.
Cedeno’s an interesting idea. Doesn’t appear that his skill sets with the bat have translated well to the majors so far. Looks like a big groundball guy, so his average is going to fluctuate based on balls finding holes or not. What I am alarmed with is he was a pretty good contact guy in the minors, not striking out a lot (not walking a lot either), but he’s whiffing pretty soundly in The Show.
Walking through that might make an interesting post, because from looking at Fangraphs none of the projection systems seem to agree with that. (And yeah, we’re dealing with a small sample when we’re talking about “games started by RRS”). Though if you’re just talking about comparative advantage (RRS starting and CS in the pen vs the opposite) I can see where you’re coming from.
It’s unfortunate that Armstrong didn’t realize that he was also tying the next GM’s flexibility by NOT dealing Washburn.
(On the other hand, Armstrong’s behavior with an interim GM vs. a more permanent GM is going to be different. They pretty much have to be; even Armstrong realizes that).
Given that Geoff, bless his heart, doesn’t quite understand stats, I see every reason that what he reports on the use of stats to be inaccruate.
I agree joser. Not doubting Dave by any means. But I am curious to how you come to the conclusion, -RRS < Silva ,as a starting pitcher for the m’s in 09, when the projections don’t support it. Do the projections not reflect RRS true talent level as a starter?
Whoa, speak of the devil. Pitching Win Values are now available on Fan Graphs. I’ll go look into this in a bit but here’s something to chew on: 2008: RRS = 0.7 WAR vs. Silva = 1.3 WAR.
Any chance that the Rangers would want any of our extra pitchers as a part of a deal that would bring Michael Young in, as he has requested to be traded? Maybe Yuni and a pitcher? I know Young’s stats are bloated because he played in Arlington, but he’s a definite improvement on Yuni.
Starter vs. Reliever.
CHONE and James have Silva as a 100% starter with a FIP of 4.71 and 4.66 respectively. CHONE has RRS as a full reliever with 55 games at a 4.06 FIP and Bill James has him starting 20 games and relieving in 17 more for a total FIP of 4.02.
There’s also the fact that while Carlos Silva is probably around as effective or just slightly less effective as a starter than RRS, RRS is probbably a much, much better reliever.
No thank you. Not unless we can dump Washburn, Silva, and Batista without eating any of their salary. Even then, I’m not sure that’s a good trade for the M’s. Seriously…
Go see the tread over at LL about it. Some pretty decent analysis. Basically they think Young’s worth negative $36M over the life of his contract. Silva, at the worst, is worth negative $24M.
I think Dave was being really careful with his words, guys. He didn’t actually say “I think Silva is a better starter than RRS”, he said that the team is better with RRS in the bullpen and Silva in the rotation. I’d interpet this as “I would much rather have RRS pitching in high-leverage situations and Silva putting in 5 innings once every five days than vice versa”, though I suspect that even with the rotation set at the beginning of the season, RRS will still get plenty of chances to start.
To that end, it’s not the end of the world to have more starting pitchers than spots in the rotation. Right now the Red Sox have I think 9 guys who could conceivably start games in the major leagues in ’09. Beckett, Lester, Daisuke, Brad Penny, Wakefield, John Smoltz, Buchholz, Masterson, and Bowden. Granted, most (well, all) of those guys aren’t replacement level stuff like Silva or Batista, but there’s a point to it: expecting your rotation to go through a season without needing a 6th guy is a little on the mad side.
You don’t need to know stats to establish whether or not the team consulted with Olkin on a review of the 2007 season and how detailed that review was. In the same manner, I don’t need to understand aeronautical engineering to determine whether or not someone investigating an aviation accident discussed the accident findings with the engineering staff that designed the parts or systems suspected of failure.
Regardless of how proficient you believe Geoff might be in interpreting stats, he is quite capable of interviewing people regarding post-mortems that were done, pursuing a line of questioning to gather additional information, and cross-checking information from various sources to verify that he’s not being handed a line. If you don’t believe Geoff is capable of that, well then I guess you don’t see much difference between Geoff and Finnigan.
Note that all I said was that Baker said the team had conducted a detailed assessment that involved Olkin. I see no reason to disbelieve Geoff’s reporting that such a review happened.
And that’s a completely separate issue from reportage about the content and conclusions of the review.
Why is everyone so guarded in responding to Dave’s comment that “Silva is a better starter than RRS” Just because Dave said it, it doesn’t make it true. I’d say anyone who watched the two pitch last year would have to disagree with that comment.
People talk about how they respect Blengino and the new guys in the front office because they’re not afraid to disagree with each other, but noone seems to apply that same thinking to this blog.
RRS has much better stuff than Silva does, Silva throws a sinker with OK movement, a decent changeup and a crappy slider. RRS has a better fastball, a much better breaking ball, a better change and he’s left handed. I think he more than proved last year that he’s a capable big league starter and deserves to be in our rotation. While Silva on the other hand seemed to do everything possible to prove that he’s not. I mean did you actually WATCH the games last year? With what basis is that comment made?
Yeah, how dare you all not disagree with Dave in the same way!
Or just at all Derek. I’m not saying anyone even has to agree with me, I’m just saying that noone ever seems to disagree with Dave, and the ones that actually kind of do, do it in a pansy kind of way like they’re afraid of him. Not everything the guy says is gospel, I enjoy most of what he writes, but I thought this was a blog where people talk about mariners baseball and disagree with each other, not the Dave Cameron fan club. I’m sure Dave would like a little parody himself.
Phhhhbbbbllllllllllllllttttttttttttttttt
Back when DMZ and Dave posted on the series of tubes that is known as the Usenet, I used to disagree with him all the time. Now look where I am. (insert sad smiley face here)
Anyway, sunk cost is a lot tougher to deal with when a guy still has 3 years to go on his bloated contract. There’s always that possibility that Silva will look average or *gasp* even above average to GMs who don’t look past ERA when evaluating a pitcher, and that could very well allow the M’s to dump his salary and maybe even get a little something in return.