Projecting The Staff
We did this with the position players in the aftermath of the Putz deal, but now that we have a pretty decent idea of what the pitching staff is going to look like, I figured I’d follow up with some back-of-the-envelope projections for the staff as a whole.
Based on the current make-up of the roster, I’ve projected out a full season’s worth of innings and various roles from guys in the organization. These projections aren’t based on any intense data crunching, but are more to serve as an instructive overview of what you could expect from the pitching staff as a whole.
Felix is good, Bedard is good when healthy, and then there’s a lot of average or below guys. Maybe you think I’m shorting Brandon Morrow, but I think there’s good reason to expect him to have both struggles and successes as he converts back to a starter full time. Besides, I’m probably more optimistic about Silva than most of you, so that likely cancels out.
Overall, you’re looking at a pitching staff that would project to allow something like 780 runs if given average defensive support. In total, that’s worth about +11 wins above a replacement level pitching staff, with about 40% of that total belonging to Felix. He’s pretty good.
It’s certainly not a great pitching staff. Most contending teams will get between +15-25 wins from their pitchers, so the M’s lag behind a bit. However, remember, these are defense independent metrics. With Zduriencik stating that as it currently stands, he’s looking at Chavez-Gutierrez-Ichiro in the outfield on opening day, the M’s have a chance to get some of these runs back with defense. Even if you think that Betancourt and Lopez will continue to be problems and Branyan/Shelton is unlikely to provide great defense at first, you have to expect the defense to be at least a bit above average. Knocking 10-20 runs off the RA total is reasonable.
So, if we take a few runs away for defense, we’re looking at a team that projects to allow about 765 runs or so. Depending on how many runs you expect this team to score, here’s the projected records you’d be looking:
700 RS/765 RA – 76-86
725 RS/765 RA – 78-84
750 RS/765 RA – 80-82
775 RS/765 RA – 82-80
800 RS/765 RA – 84-78
I currently have the offense projected around a 725 run level, though it seems likely that the team is going to acquire one more position player, and where he fits will affect that total. That’s why I keep saying that this looks like a ~78 win team to me right now.
A contender? No, probably not, unless they get a ton of unexpected breakthrough performances. But this also isn’t a bottomless pit of a roster that’s going to slog through a 90 loss season and has no chance for decency. A true talent 78 win team will win 88+ games about 5% of the time, so even if the team doesn’t improve the current roster at all, there’s a non-zero chance that the M’s could make it interesting next year.
If we are within 40 RS/RA won’t luck come into play pretty huge for the M’s? Somewhere (BJ abstract?) I read that you need to score .5 runs (or score .5 runs less) more per game than the oppostition to take luck out of the equation for the most part. Does that sound about right?
You can’t take luck out of the equation. Bad teams have bad luck. Good teams have good luck. You don’t reach a certain talent level where luck won’t impact your team.
What you can do, however, is move the range of possible wins. If the M’s are a 78 win team, then you’d say they’re likely to win between 74 and 82 games. If they were an 81 team, they’d be likely to win between 77 and 85 games.
By improving the roster, you raise both the ceiling and the floor. Bad luck can still cost you 5 to 10 wins, but if you’re a true talent 95 win team, it’s exremely unlikely that you’re going to win less than 85.
Dave, if RRS is in the rotation for the full season (I believe/hope that Wash will get dealt) instead of Wash, how does he project? Are they similar over an entire season? I would think that RRS would be an upgrade.
This says so much about being an Ms fan… but it is still great to hear.
Morrow only pitched 64 innings each of the last two years. Is it reasonable to think he’s going to be able to go more than double that this year? Would the team even allow that? It looks like Hamels and Lester both jumped about that much last season, so it’s been done (though we’ll have to see if there are any unfortunate consequences). Still, wouldn’t 100IP be a more reasonable expectation? (In which case, either he gets shut down and somebody else starts late in the season, or there are more long relief innings picked up along the way)
It’s going to take a miracle to move Washburn, so don’t hold your breath.
And no, RRS doesn’t project as a big improvement over Washburn as a starter. He’s actually a tad bit worse than Wash.
So the only value in getting rid of Washburn is that you could potentially pay his 10mil to someone who could contribute more, correct?
Is it to early to start betting on how long it will be before Silva has 2-3 starts where he gets a couple win’s and people suggest he’s found a new grip/pitch? June 20th sound about right to me.
I’m not sure Z is planning on starting with Chavez in left. These are the words I heard at the event:
“There will be days this year when we start three center fielders.”
That seems to say that Chavez will be the fourth outfielder.
Silva may actually have a better year next year. Looking at fangraphs, last year was a disaster predicated by a career high BAPIP (.347) and a career low LOB% (61.1%). Whether people attribute his (likely) better pitching next year to a new grip or pitch, he should be quite a bit less painful to watch.
“There will be days this year when we start three center fielders.â€
I take that to mean Ichiro, Chavez, and Gutierrez.
“Silva may actually have a better year next year.”
Its borderline impossible for Silva not to improve in 09 from his 08 season. I’d bet the farm Silva will improve this year.
Yes coasty, those are the three.
do we get buttons and a signed photo with the Fan Club Membership?
I’m not sure Z is planning on starting with Chavez in left.
He said, flat out, on the Hot Stove show on Kiro, that if the season started today, Chavez, Gutierrez, and Ichiro would be the starting outfield. He also talked about how they had to figure out if Balentien has a future in the organization, and how they had to make some decisions on guys who were out of options.
Balentien’s going to have to have a big spring, if he even makes it to Peoria as a Mariner. Right now, if I had to bet on one guy getting traded off this roster before spring training starts, it’d be Wlad.
I am totally happy with having three “center” fielders out there…watching Raul out there was literally painful…keep the defense in the outfield…find the “power” from DH, C, and the corner infield spots…
Dave is projecting the M’s with 78 (or so) wins. My thinking is that we need roughly 10 more wins to be seriously competitive. Its not going to be easy and it won’t happen over night. Nonetheless, Z will get us there in the next couple years.
Its flat out crazy to think that the Yankees won 89 games last year in the toughest divsion in baseball and added Tex (7 wins last year) Sabathia (7 wins last year) and Burnett (4 wins) last year. Thats f-ing nuts
Joser, Morrow pitched an additional 23 innings in the minors as well as winter ball last year, so 130 shouldn’t be pushing it that much. I’d expect a bit more depending on how he does.
Dave, see any good matches for Balentien out there? I’d hate to see the team “figure out if Balentien has a future in the organization” because that is the #1 way to kill a prospect’s value. If you don’t believe the guy will cut it as an everyday player, then trade him while others are infatuated with the light-tower power. If you do think he will make it, then commit to giving him at-bats between LF and DH.
I’d love to see if the Nationals are interested, as Bowden has a pretty notable history of acquiring toolsy outfielders (Milledge, Dukes, Mo Pena, Guillen when he was with the Reds). Maybe he could make your Nick Johnson dream come true?
It is amazing how expensive and yet how easily replaceable the back of the M’s rotation is.
It’ll be interesting to see if Endy getting 120 starts in LF does to the UZR of LFs as a whole. I agree with Dave on Wlad, he’s effectively blocking Saunders and his skills will be wasted in Safeco.
Its not going to be easy and it won’t happen over night.
Improvements from 78 win true talent to 88 win true talent happen ALL THE TIME, actually. “Worst to first” isn’t even that uncommon.
Also, I’m not Dave, but I’d try and match Balentien with a park that likes RHB who have pull power. It seems to me that would be the place where he has the best shot of developing to his maximum ceiling- Texas, Houston, White Sox, and so on.
“Improvements from 78 win true talent to 88 win true talent happen ALL THE TIME, actually. “Worst to first†isn’t even that uncommon.”
That certainly can happen, but I don’t know if that should be our expectation. We certainly are in good hands with the new management.
Dave, see any good matches for Balentien out there?
Florida. If the M’s were going to make a run at Nick Swisher, he’d make sense as part of that package too. Washington already has too many OFs.
Florida
Hermida? Does he have any upside? Any interesting pitchers on Florida squad? Oh my God would Han-Ram look sexy in M’s uni. Granted it would take a lot more than Wlad.
More than Wlad? How about more than Boston can offer, let alone Seattle. Just forget about the Ramirez boys. The M’s aren’t getting Manny, and they’re not getting Hanley. Nobody is.
This hasn’t stopped Bowden before. They had Dukes, Milledge, Kearns, and Mo Pena BEFORE re-signing Willis, trading for Willingham, and at least having rumored interest in Dunn, Bradley, Abreu, Taveras, Nady, and Swisher!
Bowden is brutal and I wouldn’t put it past him to have serious interest in Balentien, especially since he could be stashed in AAA for a couple months while the MLB roster sorted itself out. Or maybe I’m just crazy.
You mean like Wlad and Felix?
Wlad is out of options. No one can stash him in Triple-A.
H-Ram at 11mil a year is a bargain. But that is roughly half of Marlins 08 payroll. Miggy got dealt and unless the Marlins get new owners Han-ram will too. Its not a matter of if, just a matter of when.
“You mean like Wlad and Felix?”
I’d do it.
This isn’t a rosterbation thread.
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lo siento
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If were going to make a run at the division, in addition to fixing the middle infield, Wlad has to flip out or go away.
I’ve decided to coin a new term – BARL (pronounced “barrel”). The back-end of the M’s rotation is full of BARLs. Barely Above Replacement Level. I think Morrow (until proven otherwise), Silva, Washburn, Batista, Heilman, and RRS all have BARL potential, with Morrow the only guy having upside beyond BARL.
Dave –
That’s really what I was saying. My expectation from what they said is that they will add a left fielder, likely through a trade. It’s been my feeling all along that Balentien would be involved in such a move because he doesn’t really have a place in the future of the team.
Thus my comment about Chavez really being the fourth outfielder. …Obviously, he could end up starting if another isn’t acquired. That’s a given.
So…
Are there any changes, using the players currently on the roster, than improve the staff for ’09? Do we know what RRS’s FIP would be as a starter? I know Dave mentioned that Silva is best as a starter with RRS relieving if you had to do it that way, but is the team better with RRS in Washburn’s place? Or are you hoping that with Washburn in a contract year and a unknown bullpen that you take advantage of his high number of just above replacement level innings?
I looks like the staff will not be an strength for the team in 2009.
Its main asset, depth of pitchers, would be more useful if it were depth and quality of pitchers.
It’s important to make a distinction between Washburn being bad, and Washburn not being worth what we’re paying for him.
The former can be debated a bit but he’s still better than Silva or RRS; the latter isn’t really up for much debate, I don’t think.
It worked when we dealt them Snelling, but I’m not sure there’s a contract I want to eat to make it worth while (like Vidro’s). Maybe a bite on a Wlad/Fruto-esque current reliever prospect for Johnson? Seems a stretch…
Aaron M.
How or why is Wash better than Silva?
He’s not, really, if you look at the chart, but he is a ~1 WAR starter.
Washburn is basically a well-paid and somewhat less effective version of Jamie Moyer.
If I’m reading the chart correctly, the number one thing that could happen that could actually move the numbers in the M’s favor is if Bedard pitches significantly more than 130 innings. Because every inning he took from any of the relievers is an improvement. We don’t want Morrow or Felix overworked, but we actually don’t have any incentive with Bedard. So as long as he’s healthy, he’s the wild card to improvement.
“If I’m reading the chart correctly, the number one thing that could happen that could actually move the numbers in the M’s favor is if Bedard pitches significantly more than 130 innings”
Agreed. I don’t know what is a realistic expectation for how many innings Bedard should pitch in 09 but he is pretty darn good when he’s on the hill. Lets hope he can continue to be effective. BTW in 05 Bedard pitched 141 innings and it was worth 3.2 wins.
don’t forget Denny Stark!
Not to be Wally Wet-Blanket here, but two years ago the M’s were probably an 81-82 win team (and ended up lucking into 88 wins). It’s great that they’ve “climbed back” to just barely below .500, but Holy Smokes. The damage done in the’07 offseason was massive.
And looking at the Future Forty, I don’t see another +10 wins coming out of the farm system any time soon (and really, we probably need +14 or so. The AL West won’t remain a weak division for very long – in a few years it will take 95+ wins again).
We’re moving in the right direction again, but the cart is a loooong way from getting the horse out of the woods.
JMHawkins, in the end, the M’s will have to acquire, by draft or trade or free agency or international scouting, more real stars (and probably have to replace one of their top win players in Beltre) to become seriously competitive. It’s either that or become the Pittsburgh Pirates West. We have a great opportunity in the 2009 amateur draft for the new management to show their stuff, and then it’s great player development activities and a lot of luck.
Well, by pythag the ’07 M’s was a 79 win team that somehow won 88; the ’08 team was a 67 win team that only won 61. So really, if Dave is right and they end up at a legitimate 78 wins, they’re right back to where they actually were two years ago (just not where Bavasi thought they were). The most unfortunate part is that those are two years out of the careers of Ichiro and Felix and Beltre that we (and they) won’t get back. (And the A’s are two years closer to a new stadium, though that appears to be retreating like a mirage).