Template for a Felix Extension
Felix is due to submit his arbitration request for his 2009 salary on Tuesday. He’s three years from free agency. If you’re wondering what an extension for Felix would look like, consider the case of Cole Hamels – also arb eligible for the first time, also an elite young hurler, and also three years from free agency, he re-signed with Philadelphia for $20 million over the next three years today. The Phillies didn’t buy out any of his free agent years, but avoided potentially large arb awards down the line and gave Hamels some financial security.
If we assume that the Phillies didn’t get a huge discount and Hamels valued his arb years at $7 million per, we’d have to assume that he’d value his free agent years at at least double that. So, perhaps a five year extension would have cost them $45 million or so, pretty close to what we estimated it would take to sign Felix to a five year deal, assuming he’s interested in a contract of that length.
So that’s the template – $20ish million to buy out his arb years, and probably around $45 to $50 million to take away his first two free agent years.
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I wonder what his actual thinking is wrt sticking around past his arb years. On the one hand, this is the only organization he’s ever known and it’s been his home for a significant chunk of his young life. On the other hand, the org hasn’t been exactly stable over that time; he must be pretty used to adjusting to new catchers and coaches by now. And economic crisis or not, there’s plenty of evidence that the cash register still rings for an elite young starter. The temptation to see asap what the market would offer must be overwhelming.
Felix’s arbitration situation is a black cloud looming in the distance. I’m sure Zduriencik is working on the issue but who knows if Felix and his agent are interested.
At his age he would think he is invincible. Would you do it? Who are his advisors? Tough decesion at his age. At mine go for the money now. Who knows what tomorrow may bring.
One thing I know for dang sure: I sure wouldn’t dilly-dally getting a generous offer to Felix out.
Even now, I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if he landed 50+ million in a five-year deal. But I have a sinking feeling we won’t be so lucky to sign him for that long.
Felix has got to be looking at himself and this team and thinking “Ya know? We’ve stunk since I’ve been here, for the most part. And a whole lot of new is going on. I think I’m going to wait on signing anything beyond three years- to see if these guys really do have a plan to win and if so, when it bears fruit.”
“If it turns out to be a situation I don’t like, why give up the easiest parachute out of it at THIS point?”
And if I’m Zduriencik, my thought would be: at the bare minimum, I gotta buy the Felix arby years.
I wondered when this subject was going to arise. I think one of the most important things to remember is Junior/The Big Unit/A-Rod. It’s worthwhile not to quibble over a couple of million early on to buy some gratitude/love later. Also, Randy was turned off more because of how he was treated/regarded here than the money. Baseball players, especially ones with Felix’s talent, will get their millions anywhere. So it’s not always about the money. It’s up to the M’s to ensure that King Felix wants to be the next Edgar and not the next Big Unit.
Please oh please let Felix be a Mariner for life.
He is the biggest reason BY FAR to be even slightly hopeful about this team’s future.
The absolute key is to let Felix know they are interested in either deal, the arb years or beyond. He needs to know that he is held in high regard, is wanted and that the team doesn’t intend to be priced out of making him a Mariner for life. Zduriencik will know how best to do this.
When you have the opportunity to sign a healthy, young and talented player of Felix’s caliber for 5/$50, you do it. Those gifts don’t come around often unless you’re the Red Sox (and the Rays), and you know what? Theo Epstein has never gone to arbitration since taking over as GM. That little run could change in a few days (Papelbon & Lopez) but still . . .
Just thought I’d mentioned that Hamels is actually a Super2. At the end of this new contract he’ll still have one more year of arbitration.
I’m surprised that Philly didn’t make a longer offer just because it would be a lot more tempting to sign in the wake of a World Series victory than after losing 100 games…
Why not try and lock him up for 7?
Felix must be made happy.
Do what you have to do Z.
I don’t know if it’s factoring into his thinking at all but I do recall Felix making comments that he was very pleased with the way the M’s initially pursued/recruited him, that they were very respectful to his family and all that jazz. Granted, that doesn’t take the place of winning and dollars but I do think he feels some loyalty to the M’s.
Sounds good. Get it done, Z.
Please, just let him name a price and give it to him.
Cole Hamels is a super-2, so his deal doesn’t even buy out his last year of arb eligibility. He’s not the best template for a Felix deal, although I can’t recall any other pitchers signing long-term deals going into their first arb-eligible season recently. If you wanted to use Hamels as a template, you’d have to look at the $16 million he’s making over the last two years of the contract as comparable to Felix’s next two years. If you make the split for arbitration payments by year 40/60/80% of free market value, you’d have to pay Felix another $13 million or so for that final arbitration year. That’s $29 million to buy out the arb years rather than 20.5. If you want a five-year deal I’m guessing you’d actually have to go up to $60 million or so. That’s still fair, but if I were the Mariners I probably wouldn’t use Hamels as a template.
Baseball players, especially ones with Felix’s talent, will get their millions anywhere. So it’s not always about the money.
Except it usually is. By all accounts, CC Sabathia really liked playing for the Brewers. By all accounts, he wanted to stay in the NL. By all accounts, he wanted to play in California. Did he take less money to stay with Brewers, or stay in the NL, or play for a California team? There are tons of other examples. They guys who ultimately take less money in lieu of some other priority are rare.
I’m surprised that Philly didn’t make a longer offer just because it would be a lot more tempting to sign in the wake of a World Series victory than after losing 100 games…
Maybe they did, and he wasn’t interested. The M’s may try to lock Felix up for a bunch of years too, but he (and his agent) probably will want to test free agency earlier rather than later. The Hamels deal is a template for both sides.
Please, just let him name a price and give it to him.
That’s not a template for being a competent GM. You don’t nickel and dime the guy, but you don’t just give away the store either. If you have to break the budget for somebody, Felix is the guy, but that doesn’t mean he gets a blank check. Nobody is irreplaceable.
Nobody is irreplaceable.
King Felix is pretty darn close. I say sign him. Yesterday.
$300M-12
I hope that the M’s front office is smart enough to point out in every contract what the difference in the take home pay in an income-tax free state like Washington is versus New York, California, etc. This is a real competitive advantage that I’d like to see the team exploit. Even if they offer the same contract as the A’s or Angels, it really ends up being significantly more take-home pay for the player.
State, Max Tax bracket (which almost all players fall within)
CA, 10%
NY, 6.85%
OH, 5.925%
MD, 6.25%
MO, 6%
PA, 3.07%
It’s not by any means a complete list (see the link if you’re curious) – and the Florida teams can say the same thing – but it’s still something to be considered as a competitive advantage for free agents and retaining players.
P.S. I know that players won’t pay the full amount because they will get a federal deduction for paying state income taxes, but still it’s very substantial. This is also alleviated by ability to claim large sales tax purchases for federal deductions.
Felix is far and away the most exciting player on the team. It may be irrational but I’d give him as much money as he wants to stay forever. I <3 Felix and will be saddened enormously if he doesn’t retire a Mariner.
I’m aware of this… it was hyperbole. But barely.
Regarding the tax issue – I was told by a friend of mine who plays professionally that players have to pay state income tax in every state they play in – so if the Mariners play 3 games in New York, then he has to file for 3/162 (or something thereabouts) of his salary. The logic is that because that’s where he worked, that’s where he’s taxed.
The tax issue is important to note though, but at the same time, does the average fan and player pay attention to the details, or do they just want to make more at the gross contract amount?
In regards to Felix, I have to agree that you have to walk a fine line with him – no player is worth the agility of the team to make deals going forward. Felix is a hell of a pitcher – and one that I would hate to see go – but he could end up being more detrimental to a team because of the weight of his contract and what kind of positions it puts the team in.
$300M/12y is only a slight exaggeration.
Why not offer $78M/5y IMMEDIATELY following the 2009 season. Buys out some free agency, allows him financial security right now AND the promise of a big payday before he turns 30. Plus we can win the division at least once in the next five years (knock on maple) and then sign him to a fat extension. Fatter than Silva’s deal, even.
Is there stats kept on attendance for the days certain pitchers like Felix pitch?? I know that I try to attend on the days he pitches and wondering if attendance boost is significant enough to offset costs for a multiyear signing????
Per Jayson Stark
Anyone else concerned that it’s only a one year deal?
Sometimes a one-year deal is a way to temporarily avoid an arbitration hearing while continuing negotiations on an extension. At least it doesn’t rule out the possibility.
I note that Felix’s contract is half a million less than the first year of Hamels’ contract. Anyway, I’m mostly happy that we’ve reached an agreement earlier in the process, as opposed to past years where his contract was simply renewed because no agreement was reached. That’s a mildly promising sign about his relationship with the new front office.
Go back to Felix’s game log, and then cross check the attendance for those dates. I suppose then you could subtract that total number from the total attendance for the year. Than divide what’s left of the total attendance by the games Felix didn’t pitch. (all of this must be done for home games). There’s your average on days Felix didn’t start. And you’ll already have your average on days he did start.
I hope I didn’t **** that up to much.
Thanks galaxieboi. I realize that that can be done but I thought with the crazy amount of stats already assembled, there might have been a stat guru who compiled it already.
Actually a 1 year signing of Felix could set up for a nice 5 year package next year. Gamble is that Felix pulls out a great MVP year and the price goes up.