Yes, Griffey’s coming
DMZ · February 12, 2009 at 8:01 am · Filed Under Mariners
We know it, you know it, Griffey knows it. There’s no need to post every rumor escalation in every thread.
This would be a fine comment thread to post them in, now that I think about it.
[still not a board]
I don’t think he’ll hurt or help the team. It’s probably a neutral move, but since the M’s are unlikely to contend this year and it brings back some fans, what’s the harm?
Must…have…faith…in…Wakamatsu.
I think that I would rather watch Griffey than worry about Endy giving us a half a win that will really mean nothing during a lost season.
Since you know it’s a lost season, do you have any lottery numbers for me?
Seriously? The 2008 AL West isn’t very good- Oakland and Anaheim look like ~85 win teams right now, and the M’s look like a ~78 win one, not much different from last year… except with more young players with upside.
Quite frankly, the Mariners have no business spending 90 million dollars if the idea isn’t to actually compete and make the team better. If they want nostalgia, hell, sign Edgar, Buhner, Boone, Alvin Davis and Langston to play with Griffey. Hey, why not- let’s have even MORE nostalgia!
Why can’t we just accept that, yes, Ken Griffey WAS a great player, but he’s not any more, and it would be nice to have a team do their best to win and use players in their most appropriate role. Griffey’s a reasonable signing as the LH DH, getting playing time against RHP and the occasional PH appearance. He’s not worth giving fans warm fuzzies by playing the OF, any more than having Ichiro be the closer is worth it, cool as THAT might be. Let’s try to have the positive feeling that comes from as many Mariner wins as possible.
The worst thing is that Dave Niehaus is certainly going to expire from excitement the first time Junior hits one of his patented bombs to the edge of the infield grass.
Just look at Griffey as an upgrade to Vidro at DH, and I think we will all be happy.
Why do people keep saying this as if it’s axiomatic?
Most projections peg the Mariners for the mid-70s in wins, which isn’t great to be sure; but there is significant potential for upside on the roster from a variety of players that could easily push them into the 80s, as the roster is constructed RIGHT NOW. And in a weak AL West, that could be enough.
The Mariners aren’t going to lose 101 games again, and are a significantly better team RIGHT NOW than they were last season. This isn’t a Cleveland-style rebuild where we’re going to suck for several years in a row.
And yes, Endy Chavez offers more value in LF than Griffey would there, when their defensive abilities are properly taken into account; if you disagree with that, your “opinion” probably isn’t worth defending.
Darn you epo, you beat me to my argument. 🙁
I live on the East Coast, and have seen Endy play plenty of times. He is a good player and fast, but I think people on here are giving him way too much credit. He has been basically a reserve OF for his entire career–he has 610 PA total for the past 3 years and no more than 353PA in 1 year with the mets. Griffey will have a better year and much more impact on this team then USS Mariner gives him credit for, and I hope they admit this when they are wrong come Sept.
I also live on the east coast and have seen Endy play plenty of times. He is a good player and fast, and I think people on here are not giving him enough credit.
Now what?
Maybe we just realize that summary opinions are pretty worthless and just move on to what we can actually prove and disprove. What a great idea!
Wait, so he’ll have a better year and more impact than we’re already giving him credit for? Are we supposed to credit him ahead of time? Or do you think we’ve been too down on his potential contributions?
I think 75% of our readers think we’re idiots and see Chavez as a horrible player.
Chavez has 23 hits, 108 hits, and 43 hits the past 3 seasons–not exactly the type of numbers that guarantee a starting LF spot. Ok I agree he is great in the outfield and will make plays out there, but to act like a future Hall of Famer and best player in Franchise History couldnt do just as well out there is asinine. Projections aren’t always right–I seriously doubt anybody projected Brady Anderson to hit 50 HR’s one season. How this became Chavez vs Griffey doesn’t make any sense to me–put them both out there in spring training and may the best man win–if Griffey loses he is a DH, and if Chavez loses he is a reserve OF which he has been his whole career.
Tell you what – when you figure out why total hits aren’t a good indicator of ability and what a projection actually projects (you know, probability), we’ll listen to you.
If stats in Spring Training were actually predictive, a couple of the best players in Mariner history would be Morse and Bloomquist.
I’d love to see Griffey DH, mostly for nostalgic reasons. (I’ve still got all those signed Griffey rookie cards, gotta root for him to pad his home run total).
But if he plays in the field (very much) it wont be a good thing. I’d rather see the Ms utilize their defense and make Washburn/Silva/Etc look better, so we can unload them. And hopefully, make some of our new relievers look better than they are, so we can get good value for them.
I trust that Zduriencik knows what he is doing with Griffey, and will utilize his strong defensive outfielders, because he traded for them for that purpose.
We should just have a new closer battle every year, and then when someone gets hot as the closer, trade them for good value like in the Putz trade. When someone pitches well in the 9th instead of the 7th or 8th, many teams are falling all over themselves to overvalue that player.
Since you know it’s a lost season, do you have any lottery numbers for me?
Can’t the same be said for your opinion that Griffey will be bad? Somehow you know that for sure, but I can’t know that the M’s are going to have a bad season? Interesting.
Dave, I think 75% of the readers here understand why Endy is a very good player. I just think that most of that 75% are like me, They don’t post much unless they have something to add to the discussion. Thanks to you and the rest of the USSM crowd for all you write!
Is the projectionable consensus that Junior can be to Seattle what Floyd was to TB in ’08? With the sentimental name of ‘Junior’ on top of it? Thats what I’m hoping for anyway. Is that too far off base?
Why do people think we believe Griffey’s going to be *bad*? He’s horrible defensively, that’s something everyone can agree on. But as a DH, I see a guy who’ll hit .250-.265 with a decent on-base percentage, maybe slug .450, and I hope we get 400 PA out of him. I’d be happy for that. And I’m worried about the health issues, sure.
I don’t… I don’t see what’s crazy about that.
Tchaw. Because you hate the Mariners.
Everyone knows that.
How about Chavez with total bases of 32, 152, and 57 the past 3 years. Don’t get me wrong I like Endy and thought he was a good pick up, but to act like he is irreplaceable in LF just isn’t correct. If I had a choice of Chavez and Griffey and the M’s could only keep 1 of them I’m going with Griffey. Like they say in boxing a puncher always has a puncher’s chance. Griffey’s upside when healthy far outweighs Chavez’ great D and liability at the plate. We have 1 great SP, our #2 was hurt last year, and mediocre # 3,4, and 5 SP with no proven closer. You have to score some runs to win especially with this group, and Ichiro will get a lot of stuff Griffey wouldnt anyway. Much like what the Phils did last year with Victorino in CF and Burrell in LF.
It is clear that Junior is in the twilight of his career. And I am the biggest fan the move to bring Chavez in and starting him 70% of the time in left field (esp. with Wash, Brandon and Bedard’s tendancy to get majority of thier outs via the fly ball) while giving Jr. the DH spots.
Then when you have Felix and Silva (yikes!) start you can contemplate letting Griffey play a little LF for 7 innings to make the fans smile letting the DH spot go to Clement et. all.
Ichiro is going to run from right to center to left to catch flies Griffey can’t get to? Sooo… Griffey’s going to play left in this world?
Also: Griffey’s upside when healthy far outweighs Chavez’ great D and liability at the plate.
It doesn’t. It really doesn’t. In the field, Griffey’s that bad. He’s historically bad.
Can’t the same be said for your opinion that Griffey will be bad?
No, saying that Griffey has terrible defensive metrics in the OF (which he does) is noting statistics, just like noting batting average, slugging percentages, and home runs. Drawing a conclusion from that (“he should stick to being a DH”) is an argument supported by evidence.
Unless you know the future (which would be YOUR supporting evidence), you can’t know if the M’s season is lost. The odds aren’t in the M’s FAVOR of winning the West (the available evidence through sabremetric projections is out there projecting the AL West winner as a mid-80’s winning team, and the M’s as somewhat behind them and slightly under .500), but that’s not the same as saying “it’s a lost season”, since random luck and bad/good breaks in player development and injury that aren’t knowable could easily overwhelm the projections.
Also, I just got through saying Griffey’s an OK option as a DH against RHP (again, available evidence indicates he’s been pretty useless against LHP since his last really good season, 2005). What is the problem with evaluating Griffey for what he is, as opposed to assuming he’s an All-Star talent still (because he’s not, at age 39, but that’s not unusual given his injury history and age)?
Again, it’s all about probabilities. Truthfully, yes, the odds are greater that the team has a (admittedly long) shot at contention this year, than that Griffey will be an all-around good player.
We can look at the projections for this roster, the potential upside of the younger players, the weakened division, etc. and estimate their probability of contention.
Just like we can look at the projections for Junior, his lack of upside, his age, injuries, traceable decline etc. and estimate what kind of a player he will be this year.
That said, I’ve still done a 180, and I want to see Junior on the team – mostly for sentimental reasons, and ONLY as a DH in a limited role.
Basically, if he’s just at DH, he’s a moderately good if overpriced pickup for the team. The more he attempts and fails to play defense, whether it’s due to need or pressure from him/the fans/the media, the more his value disappears, to the point where he quickly will be of negative value to the team.
I don’t know – I don’t have any sentimentality about it for what it’s worth but I just don’t think the odds of this playing out well come July & September are all that good.
From the org’s standpoint, if Griffey pulls a 2008 Sexson, then there may be some real problems with the signing. Even if he’s not getting paid much, you’re still stuck with a boat anchor on the roster who you can’t remove for someone more productive because of the same sentimentality reasons that lead to the signinig in the first place.
You know, all this sturm und drang wouldn’t be happening if we were signing Greg Norton to play some DH for us (Greg Norton’s stats, 2006-2008: .271/.369/.447). We’d be thinking “well, not an awesome pickup, but kinda useful LH bat” (Norton’s a switch-hitter, but is pretty much useless against LHP, like Griffey).
But since it’s OMG GRIFFEY SQUEEEE instead of Random LH Bat, if you point out limitations and suggest the guy isn’t likely to have huge upside, apparently you’re worse than Hitler or something.
I think 75% of our readers think we’re idiots and see Chavez as a horrible player.
I understand how it feels to fight the same battles over and over. You and I had a nice little exchange when I first came around this site several years ago, when I knew nothing, but thought I knew it all about baseball statistics and measure of worth, contribution and how teams win. Our exchange royally pissed me off. In arguing with you I researched a lot. Then the analytical world opened up. I started trying to understand more about the game.
I am a better fan now. I don’t automatically understand new metrics, but I take the time to learn what I can. I know you’re probably frustrated with the various ways fans come at these things, and how they like to fight to the death over these arguments with little support, but 75% is an exaggeration, and I think you should view the process of what you do for strong-willed but uninformed folks who are new to this like a medical treatment that goes one of two ways (and I am speaking as a formerly infected person):
1. –
a – medicine administered against disease of ignorance;
b. – disease resists, digs in, patient gets worse and seems resistant;
c. – stronger doses administered;
d. – disease still resists, but is weakened; patient becomes delirious before fever breaks, starts making irrational comments;
e. – medicine takes hold; antibodies creating a desire to learn develop;
f. – patient beats disease, starts to become healthy.
Or it could go this way (though this percentage is much smaller, I am convinced).
2. –
a – medicine administered against disease of ignorance;
b. – disease resists, digs in, patient gets worse and seems resistant;
c. – stronger doses administered;
d. – disease of ignorance has weakened immune system to the point that secondary viruses of extreme pride and anger cause flatline and death.
Most of us go through the first scenario. Some go through the second. I wouldn’t overestimate how many of the latter there are, among those who actually read this site on a regular basis. The Flatliners are loud, but not as numerous as they seem.
Yeah, I understand that fear, but my impression is that Zduriencik pulls enough weight that he could use Junior off the bench if necessary. We’ll know more when we hear contract details, but this isn’t an $11m acquisition who’s expected to play the field every day. As has been mentioned, I think Cliff Floyed is a more apt comparison for roles. And there’s definitely sentimentality involved, but considering that it’s taken this long, and Z has pursued every other angle, I don’t think it’s JUST and emotional signing. In a cheap, limited role, it’s a good pick up.
Ichiro is going to run from right to center to left to catch flies Griffey can’t get to? Sooo… Griffey’s going to play left in this world?
My bad DMZ I forgot about Gutierrez in CF for a second. Im just saying that Jr as a DH and part-time OF for 5 million a year, isn’t half as bad as some might think it is. He had 18 HR, 71 RBI and 208 TB in 490 PA last year and he wasn’t even healthy. I think if he is used right and gets the at bats he needs he will better those numbers and will be an asset to the M’s. It is a low risk high reward type acquisition that Z is known for.
If they sign him for $5m he needs to be better than that to be worth it, so it wouldn’t be a high reward signing in that case. Look at what Dunn/etc got: the going rate for massively better production is not much more than $5m.
Also, there’s an assumption there that he will be healthy, which we don’t know, and that HR/RBI/TB are a good way to measure his decline, which they aren’t.
I am far from even barely competent to understand how many of the metrics used by Dave and DMZ are arrived at, but even I can understand that
“a future Hall of Famer and best player in Franchise History couldnt do just as well out there”
is not something you can base anything on other than your own opinion. Using this argument you could be saying that we should be signing [insert any Hall-eligible, franchise-defining player here]. Being a future HOFer and BPIFH do not mean that today, right here and now, that player is better than any other given player. If you can’t understand this, you have less business commenting on this blog than I do.
JAC on Prospect Insider is reporting that it’s a done deal for 1 year…
See post title.
I have thought bringing Griffey back was a good idea for awhile. I think as most do as a DH only though. Run him in the outfield every once in awhile so he can play, but not too much. The other thing I see is club house leadership. The M’s are lacking that, Griffey can get in and chew some butt on the younger kids. I admit I have not followed him as close as when he was here, but with his past the younger guys should listen to him. I would say that would be worth the salary in itself.
He had 18 HR, 71 RBI and 208 TB in 490 PA last year and he wasn’t even healthy.
He also played in two good hitter’s parks (Safeco isn’t one, even if you’re a lefty- it just doesn’t screw you as badly as if you’re a righty), in the weaker league for a big chunk of last year and he doesn’t hit LHP any more (he didn’t in 2007 or 2006 either, so it’s not “the knee”). As a matter of fact, his adjusted OPS+ was LOWER in 2006 than in 2008.
I think if he is used right and gets the at bats he needs he will better those numbers and will be an asset to the M’s;
The way to make him an asset to the team is to minimize his weaknesses, which are a) playing the field and b) hitting against LHP. That means he should probably see LESS playing time than last year, not more.
Wait, am I the only one who wants to see if Griffey can break -50 UZR playing right every day? Or, what the hell, put him in center, just like the old days, and see if he can get down to -100!
Griffey will have a better year and much more impact on this team then USS Mariner gives him credit for, and I hope they admit this when they are wrong come Sept.
The agrument isn’t that jr won’t have impact. The argument is that his best potential impact is at DH vs. RHP. It’s his fielding(or rather the lack thereof) that we don’t want to see.
Can we bring back Edgar or Buhner, to platoon with Jr. at the DH?
More likely he pulls a 2008 Griffey (tripping over something in the locker room and being severely crippled the rest of the season).
I love how (after deciding it’s a vital component of a good team) people arbitrarily decide who’s a “good clubhouse leader” and who isn’t. I love Griff, but he was a total prima donna. I will never understand why the media fawns over Junior and villfies Ichiro.
As for the chilling prosepect of Jr. “playing” left field, I’ll borrow (and mutilate) a chorus from an old pop song: “Griffey’s comin’…hide the gloves, guys!”
With Howie & Chuckie still lurking around the premises, they shouldn’t be given any ideas. 😮
Jerbear –
I think that it comes down to access. Griffey, as I recall, usually talked to the press everyday and gave them quotes and lines that they could plug into their ready-made narrative. Ichiro, although he’s fluent in English by now, still talks through a translator and says surprising, inscrutable things. It’s gotta be frustrating as hell for a beatwriter to write about Ichiro – although I love Ichiro for making it that way. I’m sure there’s some good articles and blogposts at USSM and LL about this but I don’t remember where they are.
Griffey is a traitor and an empty shell of his former self, but whatever. Griffey is the Trojan horse before every fan who can’t understand the payroll slashing and accumulation of no-name players.
C’mon, Griffey is not an “empty shell.” His legs, at least, are full of glass.
Just under 100 comments here, plus about the same in the next thread. The equivalent over at LL has close to 600 and it’s still raging. Sometimes that site amuses me to no end. Sometimes it terrifies and exhausts me.