AL West Champion Odds
While Derek tinkers with the ZIPS projects on Diamond Mind, I figured I’d offer up my non-computerized, untested, totally subjective guess at the probabilities of each team winning the division this year. This is updated with the latest news that Ervin Santana will start the year on the DL for the Angels and that Justin Duchscherer’s perpetual arm problems might keep him from starting on Opening Day for the A’s.
Again, this is just my estimate, based on looking at the teams as they stand today.
Angels: 35%
A’s: 25%
Mariners: 20%
Rangers: 20%
The Angels are the best team in the division, but they aren’t great. The A’s have improved themselves, but their rotation is a massive question mark. The Rangers have some interesting pieces but are probably a year or two away. Despite a Mariner roster that has a lot of questions, there’s a decent sized door to the playoffs that the M’s could walk through.
Wait about 2 more years when Tui, Carp, Moore, Olson, Fields, and (most importantly) Aumont get called up among others and are more polished as major leaguers, along with the young guys we have now on the roster such as Jeff Clement that haven’t broken out yet but should at some point, and then we’ll start seriously talking more about the playoffs (no quoting Jim Mora, Sr. please). . .
Although, if Washington is dumb enough to pass on Strasburg. . .
Nah, not gonna happen.
A guy can dream though.
I’m not smart enough to understand most of the computer models you guys have on here so this is a perfect post for me.
Woo hooo 25%!
See, this Mariners team isn’t anywhere near as good as any of the playoff teams they have ever had, but that being said no one else in the division is running away with it.
They have a chance as Jim Carey said in Dumb and Dumber. It is a long chance and alot of stars have to align, but they have a chance. And a much better chance they say the Nationals or even the Blue Jays who get screwed by the division they are in.
Tom, the problem with that is that the Rangers and A’s both have significantly better farm systems than the Mariners. Both teams are better at the top and deeper (though I’d take the Ms top position players over the A’s). The Mariners could conceivably graduate a better core of major league talent than either team in the next 3-5 years, but it would take a lot of luck.
The Mariners’ best shot at contention lies in development of the current young major league core (Felix/Morrow/Clement), smart management of the farm system, and most importantly, smart pickups at the major league level. Fortunately, we seem to have a front office capable of putting the team in a position to succeed.
20% seems about right. The division is there for the taking. Beane seems to be doing everything in his power to reach out and grab it (Poor guy… I won’t blame him if he abandons baseball for soccer). But Jack Z is taking a stealth approach. It should be entertaining.
You may remember 2004… “Man, we suck now, but when our rotation is Anderson-Blackley-Meche-Nageotte-Madritsch we’ll be unstoppable! Especially with Lopez and Balentien hitting in the middle of the order!”
It’s not bad to get excited over prospects, but it’s not a sure thing that they’re going to realize their potential.
I think Anderson was already done for all intents and purposes in 2004, but your point is still valid.
Wait about 2 more years when Tui, Carp, Moore, Olson, Fields, and (most importantly) Aumont get called up among others and are more polished as major leaguers
Um, Carlos Truinfel?
Also, Tui, Olson and Carp probably aren’t that good. They aren’t bad while they are cheap, but they’re unlikely to turn into stars (and there’s the off chance of a Jeremy Reed-style bust). Fields hasn’t even pitched an inning of pro ball, and he’s about where JJ Putz was in AA (a failed starter about to converted to a reliever).
The Mariners have done a good job of restocking the system with decent talent capable of coming in and contributing, but we’re not discussing world-beating talent here. As such, Z shouldn’t let the possibility of contending in 2011 block him from making a move in 2009 if it’s defensible on its face. Pennants and rings are worthy targets any year you can get them.
It is a great fear of mine that the M’s will either over acheive or the other teams will under acheive and the M’s will remain in this race in mid-July. This may force the front office to be irrational and make a run at the AL West.
In a perfect world, the Angels will bury everyone (I don’t like that any more than the next guy) but Beltre and Bedard will be putting up great numbers in a bunch of losses and the M’s are able to deal them for a haul of prospects that will really put some momentum behind the rebuilding efforts.
Isn’t Anderson a Chef now? I heard somewhere he left baseball and went to culinary school.
Maybe he can open his own place called “The Little Units.”
And, if we’re talking about the future (and we probably shouldn’t be, since this is a post about this year) you have to assume some of those kids will get traded (I trust Zduriencik to actually get value back if he does that, unlike Bavasi). And if the A’s are out of it by July, count on Beane to trade Holliday for a crop of young prospects to further stock their system.
For this year, the team needs the starters to have better years than they had last year, and we probably need to see a breakout or career year at the plate by somebody (Beltre, Clement…somebody)
The current team has a great chance…if they are out of it, the FAs to be should bring in a nice haul…I’ve been saying for a while they will be sneaky good…
And the future looks very bright…lots of good pitching and OF…
Happy times…
Who do you think has a better chance of making October: The Mariners or The Yankees?
The Yankees are much the better team, but they play in a five team division with two very good teams, whereas the M’s only have to share the AL West with three flawed outfits.
Plus, losing A-Rod till late May will probably cost the Yankees a win or so.
It is a great fear of mine that the M’s will either over acheive or the other teams will under acheive and the M’s will remain in this race in mid-July. This may force the front office to be irrational and make a run at the AL West.
Yes, we should all be afraid of winning pennants before we’re scheduled to. After all, Five Year Plans worked out great for the Soviet Union, didn’t they? Tell me something: how many playoff games have the Indians played in since they started rebuilding after 2001, and adding talent like Sizemore to their team, and playing under a well-regarded new school GM like Shapiro?
I think this kind of puts the kibosh on the idea that you should pass up chances to win while you can- for all we know, we may be sitting here in Spring Training 2014 after we’ve traded Felix, looking at a marginally competitive ballclub in a better division, and be no closer to winning than we are now. We just don’t know the future. Nobody’s suggesting trading Truinfel for a closer come July, or redoing the Adam Jones deal with a different OF, but if Zdurencik has a deal that improves the 2009 team without really hurting the team going forward, why on earth wouldn’t you want Z to make it and enjoy being in contention as a nice surprise?
In a perfect world, the Angels will bury everyone (I don’t like that any more than the next guy) but Beltre and Bedard will be putting up great numbers in a bunch of losses and the M’s are able to deal them for a haul of prospects that will really put some momentum behind the rebuilding efforts.
You have an odd definition of “perfect world” for being an M’s fan. Have you been beaten down so badly by the Bavasi regime that the idea that Beltre and Bedard having good years on a CONTENDING Mariner team scares you- or forgotten the fact that if we offer arbitration to them as free agents after a contending year where we keep them, we’d either get a good player on a one-year deal OR draft picks?
I’d probably replace Anderson with Thornton in that list and of course add Adam Jones.
It’s a good reminder about the dangers of depending on prospects of a lower caliber than Junior and A-Rod.
Any team that can project to a 20% chance of winning the division when no other team can project to more than 35% can reasonably be considered a contender and the point comparing our chances to the Yankees’ is legitimate. Remember 94, when the division was all under .500 before the break in the action and the M’s had a legitimate shot at least until the ceiling tiles fell. Our chances are better this year than they were last year (and if you look at the archives of this blog from last year you’ll see why; Dave and Derek nailed it every day), both because we’re solving problems instead of creating them and because the other teams just aren’t as good.
But don’t forget those numbers give us a legitimate shot at last place, too.
Consider the top ten teams in baseball, one or two of them will end up with losing seasons this year. In the bottom ten, one or two will post winning seasons. And among teams currently ranked 11-20 one of them will make playoffs and may well end up in either the ALCS or the NLCS. Who saw Detroit (06) and Colorado (07) going to the World Series? Half the teams in baseball have played in the post-season the last three years and one who didn’t, Houston was in the WS the previous year.
There is no excuse for a team with Felix (who may soon get tired of playing on a loser) and Bedard
to atleast not be in the hunt this year. And if necessary to consider upgrading during the year, if they do have a winning record after May 31.
Dear Moderators:
How long are we allowed to misspell “Zduriencik” before our posts are deleted. From time to time I’ll still screw up “Piniella” or “Piñeiro” from time to time and I’m wondering how long I’ll be forgiven on this typo-in-waiting.
I fully expect division winning odds for the Mariners to now jump from +1200 to +300 or so now.