Comments on: Morrow Has Setback

By: Reinserts tamale

Reinserts tamale — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 01:28:15 +0000

ppl

Granted, the M’s were hoping for a good year from Morrow, but we also have the prospect of a healthy(ish) Bedard, and vastly improved defense behind whoever starts, so even pitchers with flyball tendencies could have better years than last (RRS, Washburn, or even Batista).

I think i helps to remeber that you can always replace one player’s contribution in many other ways.

However, i may be getting ahead of myself here, its not as though it has been anounced that Morrow has a torn labrum or something.

By: ppl

ppl — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 00:53:42 +0000

Felix Hernandez is the top player in terms of being an impact player in 2009, and also figuring into the teams future long-term afterwards. Ichiro is 35, and most of the other vets on this squad are either gone during or after 09, or are over 30 and coming off of sub-par seasons (Silva & Johjima) and are untradable. Clement, Gutierrez,
Lowe and some others still have to show they can get the job done in the big-show. Fields might get to the bigs soon, but has never pitched a pro inning yet, Moore and others may reach Safeco late in 09, but not in April or May, they are 2010 and beyond guys. The way I see it the #2 most important 2009 and Beyond player is Brandon Morrow and in that regard there is no filling any void left by him going down. Olson or RRS could do decent jobs, but Morrow can win this year and could be a 15+ winner next year.

By: Alex

Alex — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 23:43:37 +0000

Best case:

Washburn performs well with the help of a strong defense behind him (especially a Chavez/Gutierrez left-center outfield, where a lot of his pitches end up), and we are able to dump him onto one of the dumb teams after a few months.

Batista performs well as a closer and we are able to dump him onto one of the dumb teams after a few months.
(Alternate: Lowe is closer and perfroms well and we trade him next year for talent while running a Beane-like closer factory)

With the money saved, we are able to make an intelligent signing of a not-overvalued free agent hitter who plays at least decent defense and still has some good years left.

Worst Case: Jack Zduriencik, Tony Blengino, et al, are all killed in a tragic accident and Lincoln/Armstrong hire Bavasi#2 to run the club.

By: Breadbaker

Breadbaker — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 22:31:22 +0000

Best case scenario: RRS goes into the rotation and is lights out. Washburn pitches okay. A well-timed injury to a lefthanded starter on a well-heeled club (Cubs?) results in them making an offer for Washburn just as Morrow comes off the DL. This frees up enough salary for the M’s to acquire a midseason bat and everyone lives happily ever after.

Worst case scenario: Batista enters the rotation, pitches just well enough to win with great and unsustainable run support. Lowe and RRS both fail as closers. Morrow is then reinserted as closer and even though Batista starts pitching like Batista, isn’t pulled until the playoffs are well out of reach.

The nice thing is that the best case scenario, with this management, is far more likely than the worst case. The worst case might be described as the Bavasi-McLaren method, or “we have to go with our veterans.”

By: Alex

Alex — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 21:44:31 +0000

The M’s have a better chance of winning this year than they did in some of the past few years. Last year everyone had high hopes based on the 2007 team greatly outperforming their pythagorean win%. They gained Bedard but had several past their prime players who should have been expected to decline (Vidro, Sexson, Ibanez, etc).

This year the masses are depressed, based on the team UNDERperfroming their Pythag Win% in 2008, and trading away players they knew for players they dont know.

And yet those new players are not negatives compared to last year, and we have a lot more upside coming in the future now with young players instead of veterans past their prime.

Even though I am not expecting the playoffs this season (20% chance seems reasonable to me), the future is extremely bright, as our young players improve, and old burdensome contracts fall away, giving Zduriencik room to sign much better players than the ones we had been wasting millions on.

Its exciting to watch simply because the new team actually knows what they are doing and are making strong moves for our future, so its fun to see what move they will make next.

I expect us to be strong contenders in 2010 and beyond, lead by a strong defense (Gutierrez, Ichiro/Chavez/Beltre/etc), great rotation containing Felix/Morrow/Aumont, a solid bullben assembled on the cheap by getting a bunch of undervalued players who have a chance at becoming great and then seeing hwo works out, and an offense improved by new young talent and intelligent free agent signings once the Washburn/Batista contracts go away.

By: Go Felix

Go Felix — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 21:43:49 +0000

[deleted, beating a dead horse]

By: TomTuttle

TomTuttle — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 21:39:48 +0000

Maybe this year. Probably next. Or the one after that.

Sounds too much like one of the few Pittsburgh Pirates fans that are left. . .

By: Robo Ape

Robo Ape — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 21:35:32 +0000

But when is the future going to come?

Maybe this year. Probably next. Or the one after that.

By: TomTuttle

TomTuttle — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 21:31:16 +0000

I know you put up that post, I read it, but I’d put it more like 10 to 15%. . .

It’s a rebuilding year this year, as will be the next few probably.

By: Dave

Dave — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 21:29:41 +0000

I just put up a post yesterday that says the M’s have a 20% chance to win the division this year.

Your ridiculous cynicism is a year late.