I Had A Feeling This Would Get Nutty
Stephen Strasburg struck out 15 of the 25 batters he faced last night, and his season line now stands at 34 1/3 IP, 7 BB, 74 K. That’s a 19.4 K/9. But you probably already know he’s just too good for NCAA hitters right now.
Peter Gammons, however, tosses out this nugget – Scott Boras is floating the idea that he might ask for a major league contract worth – get ready for it – $50 million for Strasburg.
Now, just for comparison, David Price got $8.5 million for being the consensus top pitching prospect in the 2007 draft. Mark Prior got the largest contract for a player signed through the draft, netting a major league contract worth $10.5 million in 2001. Mark Teixeira got $9.9 million that same year, and those contracts helped push MLB to start a slotting program that drove down signing bonuses going forward.
So, yea, $50 million for Strasburg would be a record… by $39.5 million. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that he doesn’t get that much. But, it does raise the question of how teams are going to view his signability. Boras is obviously going to make the comparison that Strasburg is much more like Daisuke Matsuzaka than a normal college pitcher, and he got $52 million for Dice-K from Boston despite the fact that the Red Sox had exclusing negotiating rights, just like whoever drafts Strasburg will. Because Strasburg is making such a strong case that he’s not really a pitching prospect, but more like a professional pitcher playing in the wrong league, Boras should be able to make a pretty good case that this is going to be more like a Japanese player being posted than a traditional draft pick.
So, maybe $50 million is out of the picture, especially since Boston can’t magically acquire the top pick in the draft by outbidding everyone else. Even if Boras threatens to take Strasburg to Japan for a year for added leverage, the big money teams are never going to end up high enough in the draft to select him, so at some point, Boras is going to have to accept that he’ll be negotiating with someone from the Washington/Seattle/Pittsburgh/Kansas City/San Diego group of teams, and trying to extract $50 million from one of those teams probably isn’t going to work.
But I think we can be sure that the $12 to $15 million numbers that had been speculated are out the window. It’s probably going to take something between $20 and $30 million to get him signed, and that might even be a bit low. There’s no doubt that he’s going to turn the slotting system on its ear. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.
Comments
27 Responses to “I Had A Feeling This Would Get Nutty”
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.
The only reason you would pay this much for a pitcher is if you believed he was ready to join the major league team immediately as an above-average starting pitcher, a la Daisuke, right? You couldn’t possibly keep a $30 million pitcher in the minors for long, if at all.
Perhaps Seattle could, they have a higher budget than the other teams drafting high, but I can’t see Washington, San Diego, Kansas City or Pittsburgh able to swing that.
$50 million is obviously too much in the current marketplace, but something like 6 years and $36 million on a guaranteed contract would be an absolute bargain. I don’t think the Nats can pass on him, even if it does go that high, but if they do, the M’s have a LOT of payroll flexibility to make a move like that… (wishful thinking)
But seriously, this guy is sick. We should just be thankful he’s going to the National League.
And suddenly being a $100+M payroll team somehow accumulating 100+ losses in a season looks like genius. You know hard that is to do? You think Bavasi picked the 2008 season to pull that off by accident? No sir, it’s all part of the master plan he cooked up with Lincoln and Armstrong and Nintendo.
Oh, and Bavasi’s wife…. Morgan Fairchild. Yeah, that’s it, that’s the ticket….
Assuming the Nationals do pay up to get Strasburg, is the M’s best option at #2 still Grant Green? His struggles at the plate and in the field for USC so far this year have to be a little concerning.
Not a chance unless he REALLY turns it around. Ackley or White are the most likely choices, but we could also go with a prep arm like Matzek or Purke or the toolsy prep outfielder Tate.
or Gibson who struck out 16 last night against #4 Texas A&M.
I guess when you consider Silva’s contract, who would you rather have given $50 million to? If they can do it on a 7 year deal, wouldn’t it still be a bargain?
This can only help us, right?
So if Batista, Silva, and Washburn come off the books this year along with maybe Beltre (hopefully not), I can’t see the Mariners passing on him if they did get the chance. I also can’t see the Nationals passing on him… even at that price.
Look at it this way, even if the Nationals can’t actually afford that contract, they could just do the deal, backload it as much as they can. put him in the rotation three days after he signs and trade him for two or three farm teams from the Yankees or Red Sox and a load of cash as soon as he’s eligible to be traded.
mikelb420:
Just to play devil’s advocate here, you at least know Silva can pitch in the big leagues. His upside is a league-average starter but he has at least a passing ability to get pros out. For all of Strasburg’s talent, the Olympics was the highest level of talent he has ever faced.
The deal is only a bargain if he’s able to pitch in the major leagues, which is just not known at this point.
(For the record, I’m not saying that teams shouldn’t sign him or that he is anything other than an immense talent. In my mind, the main difference is that Matsuzaka came over with a clear track record of dominating Japanese professional hitters. Strasburg has done nothing of that sort yet. He easily deserves a significant signing bonus, but I don’t see how you justify a commitment of more than $25 million.)
Not that it should stop them, but what would giving Strasburg a contract like this do as far as negotiations to lock up Felix long-term?
Boras is Satan.
Hyperbole much? With everything going on in the world, Boras is your pick for the embodiment of ultimate evil?
I would not be surprised if some kind of draft pick salary cap wasn’t part of the next CBA. Even top draft picks are still a crapshoot and the whole intent of the draft is being subverted by Boras and his ilk, not all of whose players turn out to be quite the superstars they are represented to be (I’m not expecting J.D. Drew in the Hall of Fame any time soon). If I were the Players Association I’d want the money for my members and the labor laws allow the union essentially to bargain away the rights of its future members without their participation in the process. Plus, it’s in the best interests of baseball that teams like Pittsburgh and Kansas City and Washington can improve the way the M’s did with Griffey and A-Rod. The kind of money you’re talking about for Strasburg, if it were the way of the world when Griffey was drafted, would have made him a Dodger.
Joe C – Silva has two more years left on his contract.
First, and foremost, to the people who want to crush Boras and other agents for getting their clients the most money – grow up. No, seriously. Stop it with the jealousy and hatred. That’s their JOB – to get their clients the maximum amount of money. Your bile should be reserved for the owners who pay these contracts then in turn drive up the costs of attending games in the process.
I just watched the 23 strikeout performance of Strasburg – good god. I can’t believe the M’s, as awful as they were last year, couldn’t have been awful enough to get the #1 overall pick and get this guy.
Axtell not to mention that young players are still heavily underpaid, while older guys are overpaid.
But the cost of attending a game isn’t really tied to the cost of contracts. They maximize the money they can make from attendance (tickets, concessions, parking, etc.) and then spend money based upon revenue. That’s why a team with a $30 million payroll charges almost the same (despite getting a ton of financial help) as a team that has a $100 million payroll.
Joser…point taken.
I’m sorry, Dick Cheney is actually a better pick for the arch fiend.
Boras is a lesser demon–probably Mammon.
Boras is very good at his job, which is removing money from the pockets of billionaire owners and placing it in his clients hands (and his own). More power to him.
The A’s tanked that last weekend to ensure the M’s didn’t get the top pick and kick their ass with Strasburg for the next 6 years.
Breadbaker has some good points. This has got to come up in the next CBA, and it’s the kind of thing that the MLBPA will concede to get other things their current members care more about. (As an aside, I think the union should also try demanding that the teams be required to have a payroll at least equal to the luxury tax / revenue sharing they get from the other teams, so you don’t have a situation like Florida where Loria can receive $30M from the other teams, spend $15M on payroll, and pocket the difference… all while claiming poverty to avoid paying back loans to MLB and get the local governments to pay 2/3rds the cost of a new stadium. If you want to pick the evilest person in baseball, Boras doesn’t even come close. Incidentally, I’m inordinately proud of this.)
While I doubt that was their overt marching orders (everybody wants to win), I wouldn’t put it past Beane to have at least considered that and suggested the coaching staff “play the kids.”
Strasburg is sick, nasty, whatever you want to say. What he did over the summer was pretty unreal with Team USA, and he was amazing in his start against the Netherlands in the Olympics. However, he did struggle against Cuba.
The problem is, with a young guy like Strasburg, professionals have seen everything. If he were to never play in the minors I would be shocked if he had immense success right away. Remember, the two years or so in the minors are meant to refine your game. Nearly ALL College pitchers tip their hand in one way or another, do not protect the arm as they should, and it is hard for me to compare Matsuzaka, who was 8 years older than Stras.
All that being said, would I pay him $50 million, no. $25 million, I still think it is pretty nuts, but if you do the math against signing an average MLB pitcher for $8-$9 million per year, it does not sound as absurd. If you give him $25 million and he doesn’t pan out worth a lick, that is $4 million per year. However, how much better is Stras than the kid the Mariners turned down last summer who received a $4 million dollar bonus? I am blanking on name, but he is 19 and throws 95MPH and A’s jumped in. So, looks as though the baseball draft is looking more and more like NFL draft. The success of the last 4-5 MLB drafts, or even going back longer, makes giving Strasburg the big money look somewhat sane. With the Nationals beginning to spend and the need to create a better relationship and atmosphere for fans, signing Strasburg would make sense. We all know it will be a “Pay to Play” campaign by Boras and we certainly cannot waste the second pick.
To me he is worth $15 million, a 50% jump over previous highest dollar amount. The funny thing is in 5 years, we are ALL going to be so pissed off if Washington signs Strasburg and he is the second coming of Christ. Yet, we probably won’t be saying a damn word if he turns into Ryan Anderson or former Mariner top pick Roger Salkeld, and doesn’t turn into a damn thing. Pitchers are VERY HARD to judge because of injuries and more. It is hard to turn away from Stras, but maybe it is the best thing to use our pick on a stud hitter, and spend our extra cash on Darvish or a International Phenom. There are more Strasburg’s in Venezuela and Puerto Rico for quite a bit less.
Please explain, How come the NCAA allows student athletes to sign with agents in baseball but not with any other sport?
However, how much better is Stras than the kid the Mariners turned down last summer who received a $4 million dollar bonus?
Much. And less risk too.
maybe it is the best thing to use our pick on a stud hitter, and spend our extra cash on Darvish or a International Phenom.
What stud hitter, the Fighters aren’t posting Darvish (and he’d cost more than Strasburg), and you seriously think an international prospect will ever be the equivalent of the best college pitcher since Mark Prior?
There are more Strasburg’s in Venezuela and Puerto Rico for quite a bit less.
Based on?
They can’t. Boras is still “an advisor”– he can become Strasburg’s agent after the season, once his collegiate eligibility ends.
Doesn’t matter we aren’t getting him anyway thanks to a 3 game winning streak for prides sake to end truly the worst season ever!!!
Not only did they lose 102 games, but then won the last 3 to ruin there chance of getting maybe one of the best pitching prospects ever!!!
We got it from both ends!
hasn’t Lugo been sent down already…Jacko is a keeper, so Johnson goes on DL and Morrow o extended ST.