Why Tonight Is More Important Than Last Night
Having the team win the first game of the season, with Felix pitching well and Junior going yard, was certainly a good thing. Not just for the win column, but also because it helps beat back the pre-written narrative that this team is in for a bad year. But, as nice as it was to start off 1-0, I’d suggest that tonight’s game is more important for the M’s. Why?
Erik Bedard is pitching.
Honestly, no one has a great feel for what Bedard’s 2009 season is going to look like. Two years ago, he was as good a pitcher as anyone in baseball. Last year, he was mediocre and injured (the former likely due to the latter), and while he says he’s healthy, actions speak louder than words. You could construct realistic scenarios where Bedard is worth anything between one and five wins to the Mariners this year, and that four win spread is larger than with any other player on the roster.
If Bedard is healthy and goes back to being something like the Baltimore version that the team thought they were trading for, we should see some signs of it tonight. The Twins line-up vs lefties is even more lackluster than what they threw at Felix last night, so a 100% healthy Erik Bedard should be able to cruise through the Twins without too many problems. If he’s popping 93 on the radar gun and getting swings and misses with his curve, there will be legitimate reasons to get excited. Bedard is the biggest variable on the roster, and tonight, we get our first look at which way that pendulum might swing.
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26 Responses to “Why Tonight Is More Important Than Last Night”
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But every win Bedard gets us in production he gives away two in the clubhouse!
/sarcasm
Bedard has been my favorite Mariner to root for since the mainstream media and fanbase turned against him on such specious grounds. Here’s hoping he gets off to a great start.
But, if Bedard has a bad night tonight, it isn’t cause for despair, either. He may just have a bad night, and then peel off five or six good starts. Or he may blow the Twinkies away, and then get hammered three games in a row.
And I’m sure Dave would be the first one to tell us this, too.
Tonight’s game will be a good signal, but you gotta sort out the noise, too.
Larue: “Erik Bedard was asked how he usually pitches in the Metrodome, and his answer, while candid, wasn’t likely to cheer Mariners fans. “I’ve been pounded here,†Bedard said. “I’ve given a lot of balls hit the way that go off that fence in right field. I don’t have many good memories of games pitched here.—
A day early, but I appreciate the Passover reference.
One game doesn’t mean a thing (as I kept screaming at the ESPN guys trying to make a case that CC Sabathia is already washed up after one start). It would be nice to see some stamina from Bedard, though.
I love that Erik Bedard gives honest answers to questions, rather than the same sports cliches everyone else spouts.
He’s pretty taciturn, and what he does say doesn’t generally fill us with confidence. It’s refreshing.
One of the ways that this site (and fangraphs and others) have really helped my enjoyment in watching baseball is giving me a much greater appreciation for process over results.
While I am no scout (and never will be) I take greater pleasure in watching a pitcher/catcher combo pitch a game and try and follow the thought process plan (or lack thereof). Similarly watching the a planned approach to an at bat has become a real joy and has actually made we want to *watch* more baseball (as opposed to listen to it/check box scores). Allowing me to see through the results to the actual performance has been a real gift… unless of course Yuni is batting.
So I’ll be watching Bedard’s process tonight far more than the results. The number one thing that I’ll be looking at is whether he is over throwing or pushing himself too hard to prove that he can go 7-8 innings (or whatever) now that he is “100% healthy.” I would rather have a season of 6 inning performances than a month and a half of 7 2/3 inning ones before a long stint on the DL.
Can someone refresh me on what Bedard would have to do to become type A free agent. He’d need something like his 2007 season to even get close to consideration, correct?
Yep, pretty much. The odds of Bedard being a Type A are probably ~10%.
He hasn’t pitched in so long and last season was forgettable, I forgot what he is like out on the mound. Here is to a great and healthy start to his season.
Wowzers. There are a lot of variables in trying to determine how valuable Bedard is going to be in 2009.
That’s a lot higher than I expected, giving how much time he missed last season. I think it may be in our best interest to re-sign him. We have a lot of money coming off the books this season and this year’s FA pitching class isn’t great.
Whoa, given**** how much time he missed. I shouldn’t be posting while sleep deprived.
“I think it may be in our best interest to re-sign him”
-Its certainly in our best interest to re-sign him right now. But why would you if you were Bedard? His value can only go up from where it is now.
Everyone remember about small sample sizes. The pitcher that threw for Baltimore may be what we get this season, and the pitcher we had last year maybe what we get. And Bedard may strike out 4 and walk 2 tonight. And he may strike out 9 and walk 1. We will know by the end of the night what game Bedard threw. But we won’t know for at least another month which one we have on our roster, regardless of what happens tonight.
If the Mariners have any chance of .500, they need Bedard to have a good year. On the upside, if Bedard can win 15 games, 80+ wins could be doable, if it’s DL Bedard again, not much hope. So, crossing my fingers, hoping for good from Bedard.
I’ll take a sputtering Bedard any day than a Silva with 3 years left on his contract.
I’ll drink a beer for Bedard tonight while I wish him good luck. He’s going to decide how many more I drink after that. Good result = A lot. Bad result= a lot.
It’s up to you, Mr. Bedard!
Will he and Washburn demand personal catcher Rob Johnson this season, or suck it up and realize Johjima is acceptable? (This isn’t to knock Bedard per se; he obviously still has huge upside relative to last season. I just think Johjima caught way too much flak last season as a scapegoat.)
Yay for Bedard being the new intangible.
Bedard can be a beast on the mound and hopefully we say that Bedard on the mound King 14 guys instead of the Ms. Bedard we tabbed him with.
Yes, absolutely, while we almost surely sink if Felix gets hurt or struggles, whether or not we swim depends mostly on Bedard. Every trip through the rotation is going to be an adventure, but if the top guys perform, then one win out of the next three would be enough to keep this team in it.
Agree 100%. I still dream about having a rotation anchored by Felix and Bedard for the next 10 years.
Failing that, the better he pitches the more we get for him.
In many ways Bedard is the key to this season.
If Bedard pitches well over the next little while, how long before his “refreshing honesty” and willingness to “tell it like it his” are being touted as valuable contributions to the clubhouse atmosphere?
Julian: Four starts.
RoninX nails it spot-on about process over results.
i’m hopeful about bedard this year, but i’m also keeping in mind that he didn’t have a full spring (after a hip problem), and he had shoulder surgery only 6 months ago. I can’t see him being 100% really until his 4th or 5th start (100% meaning healthy- and on target). I definitely think he has good enough stuff to win without his “A” game (he did last year), so i’m hopeful for a good game, but let’s not all pull the plug on bedard if he isn’t dominant tonight.
like wak is preaching… the season is a long journey! (thanks for being here erik… i’m a fan.)
I had a dream of a rotation anchored by Felix and Morrow and Aumont for the next… ah, crap.
This draft class is going to be a huge factor in those “next ten years” now.
Well said. All the people who were for trading away Adam Jones because he “hadn’t shown anything in his call ups” and thought the Bedard trade was a fair deal suddenly turned on him when he was injured (while giving Ibanez a pass for sucking at the plate while hiding an injury), all because little voices in their radio told them so.
Yeah, but those little voices in the box likely will take that as a defeatist attitude. Since, you know, “will” and “attitude” and “intangibles” are more important than inconsequential things like stuff and talent.
Actually, now that you put it this way, if you take this description out of context I would have assumed you were talking about Ichiro!
Dave, I’m really liking these little pre-game and post-game write-ups you’ve been providing for the first couple of games. They both manage to capture something essential and keep themselves within the constraints governing a blog post.
(Not that I mind huge, long, and highly informative posts; but I usually hit my blogs to get a quick bite of information, not a lengthy article).
I think that writing so much for Fangraphs has allowed you to really develop your ability to instill important information into efficient and readable blog posts.