Some Thoughts From Week One
Based on my observations of the team from the first week, as well as my observations of the reactions of others to those same events.
1. Perhaps the best thing to come out of week one was the Endy Chavez Small Sample Size Hot Streak. Going into the season, the only people who were remotely excited about the idea of a slap-hitting no power guy in left field were the nerds who have been advocating for the undervaluation of defense in prior years. Had Chavez started the year 3 for 30, the public sentiment would have shifted fairly strongly to LF being some sort of Griffey/Balentien combo, and Wakamatsu would have had his preference for defense challenged pretty quickly.
However, Endy’s single-fest has made it fairly simple for Wak to tell Junior “look, you’re great and all, but I can’t bench the guy who hits .380 and plays great defense – you want to win, right?” So, it’s made the Junior-as-DH plan a lot easier to pitch to both Griffey and the fan base, and that’s only good news for the team. In the long run, there’s probably no more important roster decision that needs to be made than keeping Griffey off the field as much as possible, and the Endy Chavez hot streak helped make that more realistic.
However, it’s apparently also given some people the idea that Endy Chaez isn’t a lousy hitter. No one’s advocated for Chavez more than I, but we have to be realistic in our expectations – Endy Chavez is a terrible hitter. That hasn’t changed just because he won a bunch of coin flips. He has a batting average on balls in play of .407 – his career mark is .297. That’s not skill – that’s good luck. He’s finding holes, and while I love that he’s finding holes, there’s absolutely no reason for anyone to think that this represents some kind of new expectation for his offensive performance level. He’s the worst hitter on the team (okay, he might be better than Rob Johnson), and he should hit as low in the order as possible when Ichiro is healthy. This idea that he should hit 2nd to “ride the hot streak” assumes that hot streaks are predictive, and it’s been proven that they aren’t. Thank the world for its gift of a good offensive week from Chavez, move him to the #9 hole, and keep trying to win games.
2. The bullpen posted a 2.37 ERA last week, but it was the scariest 2.37 ERA of all time. Their combined walk rate was 5.21 and 40% of their balls in play were outfield fly balls, so even while they got some key outs and held almost all of their leads, they didn’t exactly pitch well. I’m as big a David Aardsma fan as anyone, but let’s not kid ourselves – he was no relief ace this weekend. Pounding the upper half of the strike zone with four seam fastballs when you don’t have a great idea of where it’s going isn’t exactly going to make you the new Mariano Rivera.
This bullpen is remarkably interesting, but also still a pretty real concern in the short term. The idea of collecting a bunch of live arms and sorting them out as the season goes on is a good way to build a bullpen, but inherent in the assumption is that some guys will be pretty bad in the process of sorting themselves out of the equation. Those bad outings are going to hurt the team, and if the team keeps playing close games, those implosions are going to occur in high leverage outings, which is going to lead to losses for the club.
What we have right now is a bunch of guys pitching at similar levels, which is the exact opposite of sorting things out. When Tyler Johnson comes off the DL, who goes away to open up a roster spot? Corcoran was the last guy to make the team out of spring training, but he was also pretty good last year and has a terrific sinker that makes him a useful situational reliever. This team needs a LH reliever, though, and with a lot of options for RH specialists, maybe he’s the guy who loses out, but it’s not an obvious call one way or another.
While we’re talking about the bullpen, we have to talk about Wak’s usage so far. Yesterday, he brought Aardsma in to replace Bedard with Giambi/Holliday/Cust due up. He took out an LHP and brought in an RHP with two LH hitters due up in a one run game. If McLaren had done this, I’d have flipped out and gone on some long rant about platoon adantages, but I didn’t. This either reflects on a bias that I have that is interfering with my ability to cover this team objectively or reflects a built up trust in Wakamatsu’s intellect that creates a benefit-of-the-doubt that didn’t exist with prior managers. I guess it’s up to you to decide whether that benefit-of-the-doubt is a bias or is built on a reality that our new management team actually knows what they’re doing.
3. There’s a remarkable amount of wisdom in not extrapolating from early season results – way too many wrong conclusions have been drawn from small sample size data and a lack of understanding of the variability in performance in narrow time spans. My Endy Chavez paragraph up above is based on the premise that luck can be a massive factor in the results of 30 plate appearances. However, some things stabilize faster than others, just due to physical limitations in abilities. Endy Chavez can hit .400 for a little while, but he can’t slug five home runs in a week. He’s just not strong enough.
Likewise, flyball pitchers can’t run up 60% GB rates and bad pitchers can’t post exceptional BB/K rates. Even though it’s only 13 innings, Bedard’s 15/1 K rate suggests that he posseses an ability that guys like Carlos Silva don’t have. You will never see a Carlos Silva-level pitcher run a 15/1 K/BB rate in 13 innings. Last year, guys like me who are constantly warning about small sample sizes whiffed on Cliff Lee despite an amazing April where he pitched like Johan Santana. When we see extremely good or bad performances in the true outcome categories, we need to give them some amount of real credit. You can say “it’s only two starts” all you want, but that doesn’t change the fact that Erik Bedard has established a level of ability that he simply didn’t have last year. That should be exciting to you.
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37 Responses to “Some Thoughts From Week One”
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I have no qualms about replacing Bedard when they did.
Bedard had thrown close to 100 pitches, and it’s an extremely high leverage situation. It’s still early in a season where he’s coming off of significant lost time.
Given all of that and Bedard’s history of fragility, this is a good situation to get him out of there. Maybe a lot of “old school” managers would leave him in there, but I think a cool-headed objective view is that it’s better to get him out of there rather than have him try to leverage up to get those last two outs.
Maybe you can argue about the decision of whom to replace him with, but I think the decision to get him out of the game at that point was a fine decision.
I was surprised when Wak let Bedard even go out in the ninth. As Aardsma threw 94 mph fastball after 94 mph fastball, I almost had a heart attack. It all worked out though, and Bedard’s performance made my day, even if we had lost the game. This team is sure fun to watch right now. You gotta love outfield defense, especially when they play in the spacious Safeco Field.
I’m agreeing with Steve Nelson. There’s no reason to let Bedard try to push himself to 110 pitches in the first week of the season. Kudos to him for going as long as he did and shutting down the A’s, but he doesn’t have the track record of Roy Halladay for staying healthy.
One of the things that struck me about Sunday’s game was that Bedard seemed a little ticked to be coming out of the game. I’m not sure if I was just seeing what I wanted to see, but it put a smile on my face.
The most exciting thing this week was indeed Eric Bedard. Perhaps this guy really is one of the best pitchers in baseball and last year was the abberration.
Or it’s a contract year. See: Washburn.
It’s nice that we have 5 wins out of the way already, but our third order record is only 3.7-3.3… Better than .500, but not as good as our results.
Let’s hope this luck streak continues for a while and we can put up a lead that might not be able to be taken down by the A’s or Angels!
Uh no. Bedard was hurt last year, he’s healthy now, so he’s pitching exactly like the last time he was healthy — 2007. The contract year thing is a seductive idea that doesn’t hold up to analysis, though people always find anecdotal evidence (to which I respond: Andruw Jones).
And as for Washburn, that has nothing to do with a looming contract and everything to do with Mr Death to Flying Things and his sidekick Endy. Gutierrez alone had 9 put-outs in Washburn’s start, and not many of them were gimme’s. With last year’s defense behind him, that game is a 5-2 loss (or worse) on Washburn’s record. He’s not pitching any better than in his non-contract years. He’s exactly the same pitcher, but (exactly as predicted) a good outfield defense is making him look fantastic.
If a good defense makes Washburn effective that doesn’t change the fact that HE WAS EFFECTIVE.
Give me more of it!
Really? You’re going to turn this into an argument in favor of Jarrod Washburn? Seriously?
I figured that you certainly learned your lesson last year.
The M’s were better than they should have been in 2007 and worse than they should have been in 2008. While you would expect this year’s team to regress — it has been just one week, after all, and the Blue Jays and Padres currently lead their divisions too — it is quite possible for a team to outperform over the entire season. You don’t count on it, but it is possible.
Then again, this team gets an all-star added to its roster this week, and there is more pitching down in the minors that may have an impact later in the season. The bullpen is definitely a high-wire act that is likely to come crashing down on a semi-regular basis, but sometimes pitchers find command (or management finds pitchers who already have it). And sometimes being lucky works too. A lucky win is still a win. You just don’t make the mistake trading away the farm for “one more piece” because you’ve been tricked into thinking it’s something more than luck.
σ_σ
If a good defense makes Washburn effective that doesn’t change the fact that HE WAS EFFECTIVE.
Try, “If a good defense makes Washburn appear effective, that doesn’t change the fact that HE IS ACTUALLY PRETTY BAD.”
I liked Wak taking Bedard out in the ninth. I’ve been beaten into a pessimistic mush by Mac and Grover and Melvin leaving starters in a batter or three too long. Wak clearly had a “Bedard turns into a pumpkin around 100 pitches” thought in his head, and he pulled him when he showed the first sign of tiring, instead of at the fourth or fifth sign, when it was too late.
I don’t think it’s bias or irrational. The choice of Aardsma could be questioned, but that’s about it, to my eyes.
To take it back to Aardsma, I like what I heard from him (and R.J.) in a post game interview about not switching pitches there against Cust (since Cust wasn’t getting around on the fastball) and getting beat with a sub-par second pitch.
Wak also said something to the effect wanting his pitchers to pitch to their strengths and not to the hitter’s weakness.
I think it’s a horrible idea to not pay any attention to a hitter’s weakness, but when push comes to shove, isn’t it better to have a pitcher miss with their best pitch as opposed to their third best pitch?
I guess my reasoning is that you’re more likely to miss a bat despite poor location with your best pitch.
I might be totally off with this, but it makes sense to me.
Washburn isn’t bad. He’s a fine back-of-the-rotation starter. In a pitcher’s park with a good outfield defense, he’s a perfectly fine guy to send out every five days. He’s worth $5M to maybe (if he doesn’t get too many starts in hitters’ parks) $8M. Which is great, except the M’s are paying him $10M. That’s what’s bad about Washburn. And even that isn’t so bad when you have financial disasters like Silva in the rotation.
Regarding pulling Bedard, like the first three comments, I saw it more as pulling a tired starter than screwing up the platoon split.
Yeah, Bedard really is one of the better pitchers in the game. Thing is, all pitchers are at least a little bit fragile, and Bedard’s history is (and was before the trade) one of being a little more fragile than most. I think we should consider ourselves damn lucky he seems to have come back still a good pitcher. That doesn’t always happen.
Washburn is Washburn – probably the most consistent starter on the roster, but still a #5 guy. With a good OF defense behind him, he’s an effective #5, but still only a #5. With a bad OF defense behind him, he’s an ineffective #5. Of course I’ll take the effective #5 over the ineffective one, but I wish we didn’t have three #5 starters in the rotation. To quote Edgar, that’s a problem.
egreenlaw9: yes, that appears to be Wak’s thinking, per Shannon Drayer (in reference Silva’s start):
(Note to the nuance-impaired: deciding that the battery is using a strategy you consider flawed and asking them to change it is not the same thing as throwing your catcher under the bus.)
I guess the only quibble I have is that a pitcher is going to have to throw his second-best stuff sometime. If you always go to the same pitch in the same situation, hitters will figure it out and – unless that pitch is really good – they’ll crush it.
So, Silva has to be able to throw a changeup that doesn’t get hit over the wall.
I don’t need to argue for or against Washburn. Results speak for themselves.
(And right now the jury is out on whether or not he will be effective this year)
-Results
+Processes
If Washburn gets guys out I really don’t care what process is used.
Let’s drop it, we’ve already had this argument once this week. AuburnM is the guy who kept investing with Bernie Madoff, no questions asked. “I don’t really care what process is used. Results speak for themselves.”
You’re mistaking good pitching for great defense, Auburn.
(hah. Joser.)
BTW, if you can, I strongly suggest you check out the Yankees-Rays game. Not only are the bombers getting their asses handed to them in a delicious fashion, they’ve gone so far towards throwing in the towel that the pitching line right now reads:
Swisher: .2IP, 1BB, 1K, 0 ER.
Yes, that Swisher. Now I really wished the M’s had traded for him — he’s a lefty bullpen arm, too!
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Few comments:
1) Here was the predicament that Wakawaka was in facing Giambi (according to him):
-Rob Johnson said that Bedard was fatigued in the ninth when he came out to talk to Bedard.
-Morrow was not available, period.
-He has no left handed relievers.
-Bedard was at 100 pitches, and had just been hit soundly for a hit that should have been a double.
Given those, he basically had to go to the pen, and Aardsma is the only one that really makes sense at that point. Wakawaka said in the post-game interview that he wanted a “power-pitcher” to face those three… Whatever. However, given what was really available, who was better than Aardsma?
2) Congrats to Gabe Kapler for getting struck out by a just-above replacement level first baseman.
3) That 2.31 ERA for the bullpen is a weird number. Take out the Morrow/Batista implosion, was is the bullpen ERA? I get a 0.95ish ERA. Talk about high variance.
As for the team as a whole, you take out Bedard and Felix and the team has a K/BB of 23/17. Yikes.
4) A batter with a head on his shoulders can often out-perform his talent, and this especially applies to slap-hitters like Chavez. Many a slap-hitter has been able to increase their average by simply hitting the ball behind a runner at first base. And Endy may be able to succeed at this with Ichiro on. Ichiro can expect to get on about 37% of the time this year. About 30% of the time he will be a first base. With Endy hitting second, he has the opportunity to hit in a large hole left behind by a first baseman that has to account for Ichiro’s speed. Endy also has the speed to prevent double plays, which have been a problem with a #2 hitter.
I’d actually love to see Ichiro batting #2 behind Chavez, for the exact same reason. Bat control can turn a walk or a single into a first-and-third with no one out very quickly, especially with speed. The Angels won a lot of games this way. Hit-and-run with Chavez on first and Ichiro up to bat means that the SS is sucked to the right behind the pitcher, and the 1B is sucked to the right along the line.
There’s part of me that thinks Auburn actually sees the truth and how he’s been proven wrong over the last few years again and again, he just can’t admit it due to pride issues. It’s just amazing to me that someone can be so blindly dogmatic . . .
Sorry, the fact that Bedard was fatigued was according to Johnson, in an post-game interview, not Wakawaka. He said that he told Waka that at the mound before Bedard was taken out.
And yes, I realize that Endy Chavez being sent down to #9 still means Chavez will hit in front of Ichiro most of the game, but about 20% less often per game, and that still puts someone significantly slower behind Ichiro, meaning more GIDPs.
Putting Ichiro in the two slot is a horrid idea. Ichiro is the better hitter who gets on base more. I’m perfectly fine with Endy laying down a sacrifice to move Ichiro over after he gets on, but this option is totally eliminated if you put Ichiro in the two slot; you can’t sacrifice with Ichiro! Putting Endy at leadoff would just lead to more innings starting with an out and more games starting WITHOUT runners in scoring postion. I see no positives by putting Endy leadoff.
I honestly can’t tell what that ASCII art above is supposed to be. It’s either Rafiki presenting Symba to the citizens of “The Valley” or Washburn washing his hands repeatedly a la Melvin Eudal. Either way, it’s bad.
It’s a Facepalm
Its Capt. Picard doing a facepalm.
Fair enough. However, I don’t think that putting Franky Gutierrez 2nd in the line up is a good solution.
I like Endy in the second slot.
I would suggest this could have been written more precisely. I don’t think those bad outings hurt the team if they give Wak better information about whom to use in what situation and whom to have shipped down. Since Wak clearly didn’t get all the answers he wanted out of spring training and Tyler Johnson is injured, the only way he’s going to find out is by taking a couple of chances and watching what he’s looking for. He’s not going to find those answers playing The Show and as long as there’s a rational sense behind it (i.e., he doesn’t declare Batista the everyday closer), I don’t think he’s hurting the team in the long-run sense. Yes, we might lose some games but if it arms us for the rest of the season, I’m all for it.
i like what Wat did with Bedard in the 9th… he said Bedard told him he wanted the ball in the 9th, so he sent him back out, but as soon as a guy stood at the plate with a big enough bat to ding bedard with a loss in a single swing, he went to the bullpen. pinella was classic at this same type of pitcher managing too– it’s sort of an old school unwritten rule, believing that when your starter has pitched a “helluva game”, you take him out before he has a chance to lose it. pitchers respect it (even if they don’t like coming out of the game part of it). bottom line, if your starter takes a lead into the 9th, i think it’s smart managing to never let him leave the mound with a loss.
“wak” i meant, of course.