A False Dichotomy
We’ve done several posts so far pointing out that the weakness of the AL West presents an opportunity for the M’s to make the playoffs this year, even if this isn’t a roster that would be good enough to contend in most years. Inevitably, someone comes along in the comments and suggests that the team should focus on building a winning team in the future and not worry about the present. When the issue of what the M’s should do with Adrian Beltre and Erik Bedard come July is raised, it is almost always framed as a “win now or win later” proposition.
I’d like to suggest that the Mariners do not have to choose. You can win now and win later. Contending in 2009 does not have to include harming future teams, and neither does building for the future suggest that the team can’t also contend this year.
When Zdrueincik was hired and started making moves, the media was quick to point out that while he wouldn’t use the word rebuilding, that is what Mariner fans should expect. The presumption heading into the offseason was that the new administration was going to have to take some time to tear down existing structures and reboot the franchise, and that Mariner fans should get used to losing for a few years while the process takes place.
Zduriencik rejected that idea publicly, but it still prevailed in many circles. However, the new GM did exactly what he should have done this winter – restructured the roster to get younger, yes, but also to get better. He avoided the blow-it-up scenario that traditional rebuilding models usually follow, and filled holes on the major league roster with older, stopgap players who likely won’t be part of the next good Mariner team. He turned overvalued assets into a greater quantity of undervalued ones and added wins to the roster without putting the team’s long term future in harms way.
The M’s can do the same thing this summer.
This roster could use another quality left-handed bat, improvements at shortstop and catcher, a quality left-handed reliever, and a solid middle of the rotation starting pitcher. Adding one or two of those pieces would help solidify the M’s as legitimate contenders in a division where 85 wins gives you a pretty good chance of making the playoffs.
There are players who fit those needs that will be available this summer and will not require mortgaging the future to acquire. You don’t have to surrender your elite prospects in order to fill holes. Good GMs find quality role players for minimal costs all the time.
Under Zduriencik, there’s no doubt that the Mariners are working to put a stronger foundation in place for the future. But do not misconstrue a long term plan as a short term white flag. This team can simultaneously build for 2010 and beyond while contending in 2009.
It’s not an either/or proposition. Let’s win in ’09 and build for the future.
Dave, to me this is the hanging slider in this post…that you didn’t take a swing at.
What’s your sense on these two guys?
So are you saying we should keep Bedard and Beltre and add these pieces…or use those pieces to get better people to fill those needs?
And in either case, how much does the ‘being in contention’ factor matter?
I could see someone taking Washburn and Clement for virtually nothing, but that’s about it.
I’ll grant that Washburn is going to fetch what your typical veteran starting pitcher fetches at the deadline (not much), but why is Jeff Clement’s value virtually nothing? He’s 25 years old and projected as a .750+ OPS player by a number of projection systems. Zdurencik may be ready to give up on the guy, but this guy got punted by Billy Beane, Brian Cashman AND Theo Epstein before he started hitting.
So are you saying we should keep Bedard and Beltre and add these pieces…or use those pieces to get better people to fill those needs?
You can’t rob Peter to make Paul a pennant contender. It’s pretty inconceivable how trading 3-4+ WAR players improves your team for a pennant run, and there are exactly four players capable of that level of performance on this team right now: Ichiro, King Felix, Beltre and Bedard.
I think your example about Pena is the point. By the way the Mariners have valued Clement, they have indicated he currently has little or no value to them…thus, that’s the real world selling price.
That’s been the entire downside of the Griffey signing…it’s preventing the Mariners and other teams from seeing what Clement could do with 450 ML at bats, no matter where he plays (or doesn’t play) in the field.
So if, as previously asserted, the value of the players you would receive by trading an asset in midseason is roughly equivalent to the value of the draft picks you’d receive by waiting until after the season to move that same asset, then there really is no sense considering mid-season deals, right?
Don’t you see Belre LA, Boston or Chicago-bound?
I won’t speculate on Chicago or LA.
In Boston, Youkilis can move from 1st back to 3rd and Lars Anderson can play 1st for a lot less money than Beltre (a Scott Boras client) will demand. The Teixeira saga has probably left a bad taste in the team’s mouth about dealing with Mr. Boras if they can avoid it.
No. It’s a little like deferred payments. The value of deferred payments, including interest, is supposed to be the same as the value of payment immediately, only with the cash stretched out and grossed up for the time value of money and the credit risk. Same with these trades. If you could get a major-league-ready player today, but a lesser one than you’d get with the draft pick(s), you do the deal if you can use the major-league-ready player now, assuming the value of the major-league-ready player is at least equal to the value of the draft choice multiplied by a factor for the time it would take him to reach the major leagues and the risk that he would not.
To take an example that assumes a bunch of premises, if the M’s were offered a major-league-ready shortstop as part of a deal for Beltre, they might look at it like this:
A. They need a major-league-ready shortstop right now.
B. They have a replacement for Beltre in Tuiasosopo.
C. The draft choices they’d get for Beltre cannot be determined, but if he’s a Boras client, it’s not unlikely he’ll play the games that end up costing the signing team less in draft picks like he did the past off-season (and when you’re representing a client, this is the appropriate thing to do).
So you run a calculus and decide if it’s a good deal. Obviously, if you were offered players of the caliber of the ones the M’s got for RJ at the deadline in 1998, you’d do it (you’re not seeing such offers right now). If we were offered some relief pitchers, we wouldn’t take the deal.
One reason I don’t see getting anything for Washburn and Clement together is that you’re sort of limiting your market. To get a good deal you need to find a team that is willing to overpay to rent Washburn, and thinks Clement has value to them.
In such a deal I think Clement would end up being treated as an add in. Maybe you get a slightly better prospect in return, but I don’t think it would net you much more.
We said the same thing about Doyle, and he promptly got traded for Vidro.
At least with GMZ in charge there’s a good chance we’re no long that mindbogglingly stupid.
So if, as previously asserted, the value of the players you would receive by trading an asset in midseason is roughly equivalent to the value of the draft picks you’d receive by waiting until after the season to move that same asset, then there really is no sense considering mid-season deals, right?
I wouldn’t argue that at all. The M’s have several positions (C, SS, starting pitcher) where they are playing marginally above replacement value (e.g., Washburn) to replacement value (or below) players (e.g., our triumvirate of no-hit Cs), as Dave pointed out. You can often pick up 1-2 WAR players for very little: think of what we got back trading away Jamie Moyer, Randy Winn or Ron Villone, for example.
What Dave is suggesting is that this year, instead of being the ones SELLING veterans for B-level prospects, we could easily be BUYING, and at fairly minimal cost to the future of the organization.
Let me amend that: I called Randy Winn a 2 WAR player. He’s more like a 3 WAR player. We got a LHP with no fastball left after surgery for him. Granted, this was Bill Bavasi, who when he wasn’t making bad trades was making unlucky ones, but still.
That’s just not true though, not in any meaningful sense. Tui is a long shot to be equivalent to Beltre offensively and he’s not even on the same planet defensively. He’s likely replacement level at best. You’d have to get a 4 WAR SS for the Mariners to even tread water in such a trade.
Interesting take. Dave, can you confirm or deny?
The M’s do have a log jam of B-level prospects, and I think there’s a group photo of the bullpen next to “log jam” in the dictionary.
Thinking in terms of what’s overvalued and what’s undervalued, I get the impression several teams still overvalue relievers. Since we apparently have two more 1st round bullpen arms coming along next year, perhaps we could afford to trade a few of those.
Also, thinking about it, “contending now” also probably means the M’s should start wrapping up some of their evaluation projects early. Who will be the guys in the bullpen? Is Branyan a full time 1B, or does he need a platoon partner and who is it? Is Yuni or Cedeno going to be the SS in September? Wither Jeff Clement? etc.
Make calls on those early and deal the out guys before July with an eye towards plugging the holes Dave mentioned.
Wither Jeff Clement?
I think you mean “whither,” although withering is not completely inapposite either.
It might have helped if you had read this introduction to the section you criticized:
I wasn’t saying Tui was the equivalent of Beltre, I was saying that if you assumed that the M’s considered him a replacement for third base (which I was not contending for, I was just explaining how you would make the analysis), then if you got a major-league-ready replacement shortstop in the deal, you might go ahead and make the deal.
I wonder if this particular inefficiency that we’re talking about – that teams would be better off taking draft picks rather than the prospects at the deadline for their expiring contracts – isn’t soon addressed by the market. One would think that if teams were to correctly value the expiring contracts of type-a and type-b free agents, they would offer better prospects in return. Billy Beane seems to make his bread and butter exploiting these deadline deals.
I was criticizing that line of thinking and I do not believe I attributed said thought to you in any way. I was merely pointing out that the logic behind thinking that Tui is a suitable replacement for Beltre is flawed.
Watever 🙂 You must be one of those wastrels, needlessly squandering letters. Think of all the electrons used every day displaying unnecessary digraphs. If we could get every American to reduce their use by just 10%…
I think it already has started. If my memory serves, Dave wrote a piece on exactly that last year. Rent-a-players were not available for peanuts at the deadline any longer.
I think it already has started. If my memory serves, Dave wrote a piece on exactly that last year. Rent-a-players were not available for peanuts at the deadline any longer.
Right. And wouldn’t it naturally follow that teams would start offering >peanuts for these rent-a-players’ services? Although, I guess in the case of Washburn this discussion is moot cause no team that thinks that analytically is going to offer him arbitration anyway.
Clement has started off slowly in Tacoma. Given that he’s hitting below .200, trading him would be difficult right now. In terms of the first base “situation” down there, they are doing the best they can, but it’s clear that something has to give soon. LaHair played RF against the Salt Lake City Bees tonite, and proved he is not much of an outfielder. Carp played LF and Shelton was at first. All in all, the Rainers were 5-hit by a collection of Salt Lake City relief pitchers (the starter was scratched). Other than Mike Morse and Prentice Redman (who hit a home run) there wasn’t much evidence of plate discipline on the Rainiers. Gabby Hernandez gave up two home runs in the first inning, and things went south from there (10-1 final score).