Game Two Thoughts
The end sucked. We’ll get to that in a second.
So, you know how I mentioned that we’d get a decent idea of whether Bedard is healthy from his velocity and the movement on his curveball? He’s healthy. That curveball was just sick. Forget the ERA – that’s the stuff the M’s were expecting last year. Whether he can continue to stay healthy is obviously up in the air, but for right now, enjoy having two all-star starters back to back.
Gutierrez continues to impress with his approach at the plate. He’s doing a great job of laying off pitches out of the zone and making them throw him something he can handle. So far, our new CF has been nothing but aces.
Chuck Merriwether needed more time in spring training, apparently.
Amy’s comment after seeing Betancourt slide into home safely: “Did the fat guy just score?”
Roy Corcoran – exhibit 8,413 that spring training performances don’t mean much. That was as good as I’ve ever seen him.
Aardsma, on the other hand, had about as bad a 1-2-3 inning as you can have. Let’s just say that his fastball command still needs some work.
Speaking of fastball command, Brandon Morrow… that wasn’t much fun to watch. This isn’t new, of course – Morrow doesn’t have a career BB/9 of six for nothing. He didn’t have much of a spring training, and he’s still working out the kinks. Hopefully it doesn’t take long.
And, finally, the decision to replace him with Batista. Our first chance to really second guess Wak, but this is what it is. I mentioned in the strengths and weaknesses post the other day that his options in the pen are “bad command, worse command, or horrible command”. This is the downside of having a bullpen full of live arms who struggle to throw strikes. Should he have stuck with Morrow? Maybe, but of course, people would be calling for his head if that didn’t work either. At the time of the move, it was a coinflip – the guy who can’t throw strikes and didn’t get a real spring training or the washed up veteran who doesn’t have an out pitch?
It would have been nice to start off 2-0. But, don’t go overboard – it’s still just one game.
Game 2, M’s at Twins
5:10. Eric “The Interview” Bedard versus Nick “About to get cuffed around” Blackburn.
Griffey, as promised, moves to DH. Chavez takes over in left, and Balentien in right.
1. Chavez, LF
2. Gutierrez, CF
3. Griffey, DH
4. Beltre, 3B
5. Branyan, 1B
6. Lopez, 2B
7. Johjima, C
8. Balentien, RF
9. Betancourt, SS
Why Tonight Is More Important Than Last Night
Having the team win the first game of the season, with Felix pitching well and Junior going yard, was certainly a good thing. Not just for the win column, but also because it helps beat back the pre-written narrative that this team is in for a bad year. But, as nice as it was to start off 1-0, I’d suggest that tonight’s game is more important for the M’s. Why?
Erik Bedard is pitching.
Honestly, no one has a great feel for what Bedard’s 2009 season is going to look like. Two years ago, he was as good a pitcher as anyone in baseball. Last year, he was mediocre and injured (the former likely due to the latter), and while he says he’s healthy, actions speak louder than words. You could construct realistic scenarios where Bedard is worth anything between one and five wins to the Mariners this year, and that four win spread is larger than with any other player on the roster.
If Bedard is healthy and goes back to being something like the Baltimore version that the team thought they were trading for, we should see some signs of it tonight. The Twins line-up vs lefties is even more lackluster than what they threw at Felix last night, so a 100% healthy Erik Bedard should be able to cruise through the Twins without too many problems. If he’s popping 93 on the radar gun and getting swings and misses with his curve, there will be legitimate reasons to get excited. Bedard is the biggest variable on the roster, and tonight, we get our first look at which way that pendulum might swing.
Game One Thoughts
Always good to start with a win. Here are some thoughts from the season opener.
The Twins offense isn’t very good, especially without Joe Mauer. Felix pitched well tonight, but I thought he got away with quite a bit too.
I really liked Gutierrez’s approach at the plate in his first two at-bats, but the swings they ended on were meager. It was nice to see him get some loft on the home run swing. I’m pretty sure he’s going to to be the guy I’m begging the world to notice this year. He’s got underrated asset written all over him.
Beltre is so good defensively – that backhand play he made down the line was sick. I’d personally chip in towards his contract extension if we could convince him to stick around.
Griffey going yard just seemed fitting. In the spirit of positivity, I won’t say anything about his range on that Punto fly ball.
The M’s aren’t going to score 75% of their baserunners this year. You’ll hear someone refer to this as the blueprint for how the M’s will have to win games, I’m sure, but counting on getting six runs out of eight base runners isn’t any kind of successful strategy.
1-0, tied for first atop the AL West. Bedard goes tomorrow. So far so good.
Game 1, Felix versus Twins
Opening Day, Felix Day. 5:05. Lineups are out early and so here’s the game thread.
LF-L Chavez
CF-R Gutierrez
DH-R Sweeney
3B-R Beltre
RF-L Griffey
2B-R Lopez
1B-L Branyan
C-R Johjima
SS-R Betancourt
The Twins have some jerks. I don’t know that it’ll matter, what with Felix pitching.
Dave adds: Wooooooooooooooooooooooo!
Better News
Yea, the Aumont thing was a pretty big wet blanket, but still…
Happy Opening Felix Day!
True, but…
“There’s no such thing, in the big leagues, as too much depth at any position,” Zduriencik said.
Mariners Depth Chart:
Right-Handed Relievers:
Brandon Morrow
Mark Lowe
David Aardsma
Shawn Kelley
Roy Corcoran
Miguel Batista
Chris Jakubauskas
Randy Messenger
Chad Cordero
Josh Fields
Jesus Delgado
Luis Pena
Marwin Vega
Stephen Kahn
Eric Hull
Right-Handed Starting Pitchers:
Felix Hernandez
Carlos Silva
Gaby Hernandez
I think it’s fairly easy to argue that the Mariners currently have a surplus of right-handed relievers and a remarkable shortage of right-handed starting pitchers. Moving Aumont to the bullpen doesn’t give the team more depth – it just moves organizational depth from an area of scarcity to an area of abundance. Okay, it accelerates Aumont’s path to the majors, but the marginal increase in value added by having Aumont on the roster as a reliever is extremely low. Trying to get right-handed relievers to the majors more quickly simply should not be an organizational goal right now.
Sure, there are scenarios where this pays off. Maybe Morrow can’t find his insulin pump, Lowe’s arm falls off again, Aardsma proves he’ll never be able to throw strikes consistently, Kelley gets exposed as a righty specialist, Fields doesn’t develop any command, Cordero’s shoulder problems persist, Pena, Delgado, and Kahn all flame out as big armed Triple-A guys, and the team finds itself badly in need of a relief ace to help push the team over the top down the stretch of a pennant race that miraculously occurred in spite of the total implosion of the bullpen. And maybe I’ll win the lotto tomorrow, buy the team, and order this move rescinded. Both scenarios are about equally probable.
The whole point of stockpiling live armed, no cost relievers all winter was so that you could build a bullpen without using significant assets. I’m all for organizational depth, but this is just robbing Peter of his mortgage money so Paul can order everyone a round at the Met.
After Felix, the cupboard of right-handed major league starting pitching is barren. Meanwhile, the M’s could have an entire bullpen of guys who threw 95+ if they wanted. They could almost have two entire bullpens stocked with flamethrowers!
Yes, Phillippe Aumont might be one of those guys whose stuff plays up in relief and his most valuable role is as a reliever. But that’s a decision for after he’s failed as a starter, which he hasn’t done yet. This is short-sighted, and while it’s okay to experiment, feel free to call this one off at any time. The organization needs Aumont as a potential starter in 2011 a lot more than they need him as a potential reliever in 2010.
New Front Office Trying To Make Us Stop Saying Nice Things
For the last couple of weeks, I’d heard some rumblings that the team was going to use Phillippe Aumont as a reliever this year in order to manage his workload. He only threw 50 innings last year before he developed some arm problems, and they didn’t want him taking a huge jump up overnight.
Today, though, Baker has some really scary quotes from Zduriencik about this being more than a workload managing thing.
“We felt that this was a guy, who, if used in a relief role, could be on a real fast-track to the major leagues,” he said. “And we’re talking a real fast track.”
If Baker’s right, and the relief work in 2009 is permanent, the M’s will have used three consecutive first round picks on relief pitchers – Morrow, Aumont, and Fields. Relief pitchers are the least valuable commodity in baseball.
Let’s hope that there’s some wires crossed somewhere and Aumont hasn’t been pigeonholed as a reliever just yet…
Baker with a followup and some new quotes. The key one for me is “Nothing is carved in stone. This is an experiment we’re doing to see if we can get him to the big leagues quicker.” While that still makes this an experiment I’m not particularly fond of, it’s a lot different than “his days as a starter are over”. So, now, we just have to hope that the major league relievers outperform expectations and that Aumont goes back to starting in the second half of the year.
Strengths and Weaknesses
So, the M’s have put a team together for 2009, sort of. The opening day roster isn’t really a finished product, but for the most part, we have a fairly good idea of what the team’s strengths and weaknesses are.
Strengths
Outfield Defense
This one has been talked about a lot, but it’s worth mentioning again. An outfield of Endy Chavez, Franklin Gutierrez, and Ichiro Suzuki is going to be one of the best defensive groups in baseball when they’re on the field. Chavez will share time with Balentien and Griffey, so the M’s won’t have this advantage constantly, but they should play together enough to make a noticeable difference. After years of watching some disastrous defenders roam around Safeco, seeing those three turn hits into outs should be a lot of fun.
Front Of the Rotation
The “1-2 punch” phrase was talked about so much last year that it became something of a joke, but on talent, it’s still hard to find a better pair than Felix and Bedard to start your rotation. How long Bedard will be a Mariner and whether he’ll stay healthy while pitching to his abilities are question marks, but for the first couple of months at least, the Mariners should roll out two starting pitchers who will give them a significant advantage.
Organizational Depth
The thing that sunk this team last year that is rarely addressed is just how bad the backup plans were. Sexson and Vidro were bust candidates and everyone knew it, but the M’s fallback option was… Miguel Cairo? Bryan LaHair? There were no stop-gaps in place in case of injury or poor performance. This year, the team has legitimate major league options at most positions – Ronny Cedeno can cover for the middle infielders, Chris Shelton could patch a hole at 1B/DH, Tui’s made enough improvements to hold third base down without totally embarrassing himself, Chris Burke has his uses as a utility guy, etc… The M’s won’t be left with a ridiculous hole if someone gets hurt or performs to the point that they need to be replaced.
Right-Handed Thump
The M’s line-up isn’t particularly well balanced between LH and RH hitters, which works against them, especially considering their home park. But while the lack of lefty hitters is a problem, it comes with a silver lining – the M’s can run out a pretty good line-up against southpaws. You don’t really want to face the M’s if you have a few LHPs coming up in your rotation, particularly on the road.
Power Arms In The Pen
I know everyone’s afraid of the bullpen imploding, but I think the focus on their lack of track records has somewhat hidden the fact that the M’s have stockpiled some serious power arms in the pen. Morrow, Aardsma, and Lowe all have fastballs that average 94 MPH or higher – Josh Fields sits in that range as well and could join the team in the second half. The end-of-game pitching staff for the M’s is going to miss a lot of bats. Yes, there are command issues with all of them, and I’m not predicting that the bullpen will be the best in the game, but it’s still quite a collection of power arms the M’s have assembled.
Weaknesses
Left-Handed Offense
The M’s are carrying four left-handed position players – Ichiro, Chavez, Griffey, and Branyan. That’s it. MLB is full of right-handed sinker/slider pitchers who have good enough stuff to get RHBs out but struggle badly against LHBs (think Sean Green, for instance). The M’s, unfortunately, don’t have a line-up that can really put a hurting on those guys. On any given day, at least five of the team’s starters will be right-handed hitters, and that’s a pretty easy match-up for a lot of sub-par pitchers. We’re going to see a bunch of games this year where bad RHPs shut down the M’s, because their sinker/slider is good enough to get through a line-up of right-handers.
Back Of The Rotation
Silva, Washburn, and Rowland-Smith should all benefit from an improved outfield defense, but they’re all #5 starters in the majors. They’re below average starting pitchers, and they’ll be taking the hill more often than any of us would like. With some luck, the team might be able to dump Washburn on someone else during the season, but there’s not a better pitcher in Triple-A that he’s holding back. The team won’t improve by ridding themselves of Washburn’s salary, and the second half rotation could be particularly poor if Bedard is shipped off as well.
Command In The Pen
If you’re wondering why Chris Jakubauskas and Shawn Kelley made the roster, perhaps we need look no further than the walk rates for the rest of the relievers – Morrow, Aardsma, Batista, Lowe, and Corcoran all struggle to throw strikes consistently, and that’s essentially the high leverage portion of the bullpen. If a starter gets in trouble and needs to be bailed out of a bases loaded situation, Wakamatsu’s options for relief range from Guy With Bad Command to Guy With Horrible Command. You’re going to see several late inning bases loaded walks this year. Given this group of relievers, it’s inevitable.
Lack of Bench Flexibility
By carrying 12 pitchers, the M’s have significantly limited their options for in-game strategies. On days where Mike Sweeney starts at DH, the team won’t have a real back-up first baseman, which will limit Wakamatsu’s desire to pinch hit for Russ Branyan when the other team brings in a LOOGY. Sure, he could send Balentien up to pinch-hit, then use Cedeno as a pinch-runner/defensive replacement and push Lopez to first, but is he really going to burn half of his bench and play Lopez out of position to get Wlad’s questionable bat to the plate? The team has some pretty limited options when it comes to late game replacements at multiple positions. Other managers will be exploiting that often this year.
Overall
There’s some good stuff on the roster right now, but two of the better players might get traded mid-season. There’s some quality arms in the pen, but they all suck at throwing strikes. There’s some good right-handed hitters on the team, but not enough good left-handed bats. For every strength, there’s a corresponding weakness, and in most cases, the weakness is a bigger problem than the strength is a benefit. That, of course, is why this is a ~.500 team – the strengths and weaknesses mostly cancel each other out, leaving the 2009 Mariners as a fairly average Major League ballclub.
And the season starts
Finally! Sure, it’s Atlanta at Philly. But it’s real, counts-in-the-standings baseball. The M’s will be playing in Minnesota tomorrow and we’re off.
This makes me happy.