Hmm
I know the Rays like to do cutting edge things that no one else is doing, but I don’t know that the three middle infielders/no center fielder plan is working out very well.
What’s that? Kapler’s playing center field, not the infield? Seriously? Are you sure?
Game 14, Rays at Mariners
Sonnanstine v Washburn.
Baker @ the Times reports Yuni’s starting, which… bleagh. All of this talk about team concentration and fielding drills not being about him reminds me of grade school when everyone had to put their heads down on their desks until the guilty party fessed up.
A False Dichotomy
We’ve done several posts so far pointing out that the weakness of the AL West presents an opportunity for the M’s to make the playoffs this year, even if this isn’t a roster that would be good enough to contend in most years. Inevitably, someone comes along in the comments and suggests that the team should focus on building a winning team in the future and not worry about the present. When the issue of what the M’s should do with Adrian Beltre and Erik Bedard come July is raised, it is almost always framed as a “win now or win later” proposition.
I’d like to suggest that the Mariners do not have to choose. You can win now and win later. Contending in 2009 does not have to include harming future teams, and neither does building for the future suggest that the team can’t also contend this year.
When Zdrueincik was hired and started making moves, the media was quick to point out that while he wouldn’t use the word rebuilding, that is what Mariner fans should expect. The presumption heading into the offseason was that the new administration was going to have to take some time to tear down existing structures and reboot the franchise, and that Mariner fans should get used to losing for a few years while the process takes place.
Zduriencik rejected that idea publicly, but it still prevailed in many circles. However, the new GM did exactly what he should have done this winter – restructured the roster to get younger, yes, but also to get better. He avoided the blow-it-up scenario that traditional rebuilding models usually follow, and filled holes on the major league roster with older, stopgap players who likely won’t be part of the next good Mariner team. He turned overvalued assets into a greater quantity of undervalued ones and added wins to the roster without putting the team’s long term future in harms way.
The M’s can do the same thing this summer.
This roster could use another quality left-handed bat, improvements at shortstop and catcher, a quality left-handed reliever, and a solid middle of the rotation starting pitcher. Adding one or two of those pieces would help solidify the M’s as legitimate contenders in a division where 85 wins gives you a pretty good chance of making the playoffs.
There are players who fit those needs that will be available this summer and will not require mortgaging the future to acquire. You don’t have to surrender your elite prospects in order to fill holes. Good GMs find quality role players for minimal costs all the time.
Under Zduriencik, there’s no doubt that the Mariners are working to put a stronger foundation in place for the future. But do not misconstrue a long term plan as a short term white flag. This team can simultaneously build for 2010 and beyond while contending in 2009.
It’s not an either/or proposition. Let’s win in ’09 and build for the future.
M’s Trade Chris Burke Back to Padres
Three weeks ago, the M’s acquired Chris Burke from the Padres. Today, the Padres took a mulligan on the deal, and re-acquired Burke from the M’s. They just lost their backup middle infielder to an injury and needed a live body to fill in.
Why Is Miguel Batista Still Around?
The M’s, just like every other team in baseball nowadays, has decided to use the 25th spot on the roster to carry a 12th pitcher instead of a 14th position player. Roy Corcoran began the season as that 25th guy, but he’s clearly moved up the pecking order a bit, based on how he’s been used. Right now, the 25th man appears to be Miguel Batista. Here’s his usage chart so far.
April 6th: 18 pitches
April 7th: 3 pitches
April 8th: DNP
April 9th: DNP
April 10th: DNP
April 11th: 22 pitches
April 12th: Day Off
April 13th: DNP
April 14th: DNP
April 15th: 9 pitches
April 16th: DNP
April 17th: DNP
April 18th: DNP
April 19th: 25 pitches
He has no role on this team. Morrow, Aardsma, and Corcoran have been the three that Wak is turning to in high leverage situations. Kelley has pitched his way into that group. Lowe is the middle guy who pitches the 7th when the high leverage guys are tired. White is the long guy until RRS comes back, at which point Jakubauskas probably becomes the long guy again.
Right now, Miguel Batista is a 38-year-old mopup reliever. He serves no function on the team. He started the season as the experienced closer who would bail out Morrow when he has a melt down, but we’re past that stage of the season. With all of the young arms throwing 95+ and getting outs, Batista has been left out of the picture. He’s not serving any real purpose right now.
When either RRS or Tyler Johnson come off the DL, he should be the one to go. There are better ways to use the roster spot than on a 38-year-old mopup guy who doesn’t want to be here anymore.
Dave On Kiro/ESPN 710
I’ll be on with Mike Salk at 11:25 today. Tune in at 710 AM or listen live online.
Palette cleanser for Monday
Minor League Wrap (4/13-19/09)
Back for a second week, with more news around the minors. The intro’s a little short this time as I’m battling a vicious head cold, but we’re not lacking on content, no sir. Well, that’s mainly because I’ve been typing it up all week. Enjoy.
To the jump!
Read more
It’s Time
A couple of years ago, Yuniesky Betancourt was a valuable asset. At age 25, he’d established an offensive level of ability that made him an okay hitter for a middle infielder and he’d flashed defensive abilities that few others possessed. In 2006 and 2007, he was worth +1.7 wins per year, making him essentially a league average player. When you have a league average player on the roster making next to nothing, you should be satisfied.
The Mariners should no longer be satisfied with Yuniesky Betancourt. His offensive abilities haven’t really changed while his defense took an absolute nose dive last year. This has all been well chronicled, of course. Betancourt was worth just +0.3 wins last year, making him essentially a bench level player. Given Betancourt’s struggles in ’08 and the team’s lack of depth at SS, the M’s went out and traded for Ronny Cedeno. Both Jack Zduriencik and Don Wakamatsu spoke about challenging Betancourt to improve on the areas of the game that he’s weakest, and they spent a significant amount of time working with Yuni during spring training.
It hasn’t worked at all.
Despite the lectures about patience and adopting a better approach at the plate, Yuni’s spent the first two weeks of 2009 hacking away more than ever. He’s swung at 46% of the pitches he’s been thrown that were outside of the strike zone – the fifth highest total in the majors. He hasn’t drawn a walk yet and continues to get himself out on pitches he has no business swinging at. Every at-bat is like a giant middle finger to efforts to get him to improve. But that’s not a big shock, honestly – Yuni’s never struck anyone as the most teachable guy around, and significant improvements in plate discipline are pretty rare.
But, there was still some hope for his defense. Despite the suckfest that was 2008, it was the only year he’s been a total disaster in the field. In 2007, his UZR was -1.1 in 1,300 innings. That’s basically league average. League average defense from Yuni makes him a decent player again. That’s not too much to ask, right?
Apparently, it is. We all saw the train wreck that was Betancourt’s defense last week, as balls rolled into center field that should have been routine outs. His UZR for last week was -2.8, by the way. Yea. He was an absolute abomination in the field, whether you go by your eyes or advanced defensive numbers. Just ridiculously bad. And, of course, he booted a couple more balls today. Improvement? Hardly. He actually appears to be getting worse.
If we extrapolate Betancourt’s performance so far out over a full 2009 season, he’d finish the season as a -1.1 win player. And everyone who has watched him knows it.
The team is 8-5 and off to a terrific start, but this is not a time to rest on your laurels and play the “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” crap. The Mariners shortstop is broken, and he apparently refuses to let anyone fix him. It’s time to give Ronny Cedeno some regular playing time at shortstop. They’ve tried encouragement, coddling, motivation, threats… at this point, the only thing left is a stint on the bench.
The AL West is not good. The M’s are a flawed team that has a chance to contend despite some glaring problems with the roster. Some of them, they can’t do anything about, but this is one that they can. Yuni entered the year with a play-better-or-fear-for-your-job ultimatum, and he’s responded by taking a dump on the field. The M’s have an alternative, and it’s time they used him.
Newer Slimmer Carlos Silva’s missing sinker
Ignore the possible issues with Gameday’s pitch classification. What about the fact that Silva’s sinker is exactly the same pitch as his fastball? Does it matter if he mixes them if they produce the same results?
Here’s some graphs off my new favorite tool, the BrooksBaseball PitchFX Tool
Carlos Silva’s sinker is indistinguishable from his fastball, if we grant that he even throws two pitches. He’s playing rock-paper-scissors with rock, rock, and rock.
Not that that kind of clustering is at all unusual. Here’s what a pitcher who can throw a sinker looks like:
That’s Webb, of course, in a stellar start. I recommend checking out all of those graphs for a neat compare-and-contrast against Silva’s start today.
Webb’s got a better spread of movement, and a secondary pitch that’s clearly different. Silva doesn’t. Check out, say, that colorcoded break chart. You can see that not only does Webb get more varied movement and have two distinct, different pitches while Silva’s pretty much throwing the same speed and getting the same break.
If you didn’t know what Silva was supposedly throwing, and you eyeballed his break chart (see this rough reference guide), you’d think he was throwing nothing but two-seam fastballs. Looking at Webb, an actual sinkerballer, he’s getting the kind of movement you’d associate with a changeup… at 90mph.
So you’re thinking “that’s not fair, comparing Silva to Webb”. And it’s not, because Webb is good, but beyond that, pick any effective sinkerball pitcher and look at what they’re throwing. They’re getting better movement and throw at least two distinct pitches.
Silva has one pitch, and it’s hittable. I don’t care if he’s got nine grips or arm actions or whatever: they results are all the same. Maybe he should try something else. Like retiring.
I know, I’m bitter. I just watched him pitch, you should sympathize.