Game 10, Angels at Mariners
Jakubauskas makes his first start at home. FSNW.
Angels
3B-B Figgins
2B-R Kendrick
LF-L Abreu
CF-R Hunter
1B-B Morales
C-R Napoli
RF-B Mathews
DH-R Rivera
SS-B Izturis
That’s a lot of switch hitting.
Mariners
RF-L Suzuki
CF-L Chavez
DH-R Sweeney
3B-R Beltre
2B-R Lopez
1B-L Branyan
LF-R Balentien
C-R Johnson
SS-R Betancourt
Hmm. Hmmmmmm.
Johjima to DL
Kenji Johjima has been placed on the disabled list with a strained right hamstring. Making sure this doesn’t linger or turn into anything more serious is the wise move. Especially considering the work he did in the WBC, hopefully this allows for some rest in addition to getting healthy. The media tends to focus on pitcher overwork (Matsuzaka), but tacked onto the grind of being behind the plate for a full season, the effect on catchers might warrant more attention.
It speaks volumes about Jeff Clement’s future as a catcher that he’s still in Tacoma at this point. Jamie Burke is the new Pat Borders.
Also, Tuiasosopo gets sent down so he can actually play. Sean White is the first name spit out by the random bullpen arm generator.
A Fun Thought
Whether the M’s deserve to be 7-2 right now or not, the fact is that those wins don’t get taken off the board. They’re in the bank, and they aren’t going anywhere.
Because of that, even if you haven’t changed your opinion one iota about the strength of the roster (and honestly, you shouldn’t have changed it much – nine games is too small of a sample to mean much), you need to add three wins to whatever you thought the team’s final record was going to be. Math requires you to.
You thought they were a 75 win team on Opening Day? That would be a .463 winning percentage. If they play .463 ball over the rest of the season, they’ll win 71 more games. 71 + 7 = 78.
You though they were a 78 win team on Opening Day (hey, me too!)? That would be a .481 winning percentage. If they play .481 ball over the rest of the season, they’ll win 74 more games. 74 + 7 = 81.
You can do this for basically any expected record. Almost everyone should just add three wins to their expected record to find their new expected record. If you were really high on this team and thought they would win 90, you only add two wins (.555 * 153 = 85 + 7 = 92).
Most of us, we’ll add three wins. So, now, I “expect” the M’s to finish 81-81, based on their current roster, assuming no injuries/trades/etc…
Given that, I’d say it’s likely – not possible, likely – that the team will still be playing meaningful baseball in September. Seriously – get ready for some kind of pennant race. The M’s are in this thing, and barring a summer sell-off of all the expiring contracts, they should be all year.
Shawn Kelley
The first eight games, the Mariners were able to survive several performances where their relievers couldn’t throw strikes. Morrow, Aardsma, and Corcoran have been used as the primary high leverage relievers, and they’ve combined to issue 13 walks in 12 innings. They’ve gotten outs, but every save has been scary.
Then, there’s Shawn Kelley. Here’s what he did tonight:
21 of his 26 pitches were strikes, and as you can see, two of the five pitches that were called balls were in the strike zone. He ran his fastball up to 95 a couple of times and he worked in six breaking balls to keep hitters off balance. Fastball/slider relievers usually have problems with LH hitters, but Kelley’s slider moves like a splitter – those hard downward break pitches are extremely effective against opposite handed hitters.
He’s a rookie, yes. He’s only thrown three major league innings. I know.
But the next time the Mariners are holding on to a one run lead in the 8th inning, he’s the guy I’d want on the mound.
That’s why he gets the exclamation point folks
Ichiro!
Game 9, Ichiro Day!
Ichiro! He’s back, in Ichiro! form! Yayyyy! Ichiro!
RRS to DL
To make room for Ichiro, the M’s put Ryan Rowland-Smith on the DL. Chris Jakubauskas takes his spot in the rotation and will pitch tomorrow. Personally, I’d have rather seen Felix pitching against the Angels on normal rest, but they know the status of his ankle better than I do.
The injury is reported as triceps tendonitis, and the DL move is retroactive to April 11th. If it’s minor, he’ll be back shortly. But these kind of minor arm injuries have a way of lingering, so we’ll have to see.
Dave On KGA
I’ll be on the air with Sean Widmer at 4:20 pm. You can listen live online or tune in to 1510 if you’re in Spokane.
Forget Nick Swisher
If the .685 wOBA during the first week of the season didn’t convince the Yankees to hang onto Swisher, news that Xavier Nady is out for the season with a torn elbow ligament will. No way the Yanks trade Swisher now.
New WSJ Article
My latest WSJ piece is up, for those interested in a 300 word overview on some of the young ground ball pitchers in baseball.