I Have Come To Praise Franklin Gutierrez
Coming into the season, we knew Gutierrez could play defense. After the Putz trade was announced, we spent thousands of words telling anyone who would listen that the Mariners just acquired Mike Cameron-lite, an elite defensive center fielder who would more than make up for his offensive shortcomings with spectacular defense and the results would be manifest in improved results for the pitchers.
That’s all been true, and obvious to anyone who watched the games. If you haven’t figured out by now that Gutierrez is one of the best defensive players in baseball, I don’t know what to tell you. If you haven’t realized that defense matters and the three centerfielders plan can yield positive results, you might want to start following basketball or something.
But I’m not here to talk about Franklin Gutierrez’s defense. I’m here to praise the man’s offense, and beg for him to be reinserted into the #2 slot in the batting order.
Forget the results for a second. Gutierrez had a good weekend, and his seasonal line is now above average for a hitter. Obviously, if he could keep that up, it would be the best mark of his career to date. But it’s easy to talk up a guy’s offense after a good week early in the season inflates his season totals. Let’s talk about how Gutierrez is approaching each at-bat.
On a team full of hackers, Gutierrez stands out as an oasis in the desert. His swing percentage for 2009 is 37.6%, second lowest on the team (only Endy Chavez swings less at 36.9%). Lopez, Beltre, and Betancourt swing about 55% of the time. That 18% difference is what enables Gutierrez to work the count, get into situations where he can sit on a fastball, and make the opposing pitcher work. He hasn’t drawn 10 walks so far by accident. Pitchers aren’t scared of Gutierrez, but he’s making them throw strikes. Not just one strike, but multiple strikes in every at-bat. If you aren’t around the plate, you’re going to throw Gutierrez a lot of pitches before you end up putting him on base.
Gutierrez and Betancourt have seen the same amount of balls and strikes this season – 51.8% of the pitches thrown to Gutierrez have been in the zone, compared with 52% to Betancourt. Gutierrez has 10 walks and is seeing 4.00 pitches per plate appearance, while Yuni has yet to walk and is seeing 3.31 pitches per plate appearance. That’s all approach. That’s why Gutierrez has made 7 less outs despite having a batting average 20 points lower, and those extra outs are extremely valuable.
Wakamatsu began the season with Gutierrez in the #2 spot, and he had the right idea – he’s the perfect hitter for that slot on this team. With Ichiro leading off, you want a patient hitter in the #2 spot in order to give him an opportunity to steal bases. With Griffey hitting 3rd against RHP, you want a guy in the #2 spot who can hit LHPs, in order to minimize the opponents ability to get easy platoon advantages late in games. Managers also like a #2 guy who can bunt, and since it’s the spot that will get the second most plate appearances on the team, you’d like the guy to be a competent hitter.
Patient approach? Whacks lefties? Good bunter? Decent hitter? Check, check, check, and check.
Gutierrez is perfect for the #2 spot in the order against both RHPs and LHPs. Against RHPs, you have 1/3/5 LHBs, so having Gutierrez’s ability to hit LHPs will deter opposing managers from bringing in a LOOGY to go after the top of the order. Against LHPs, he’s one of the better hitters on the team, and you want his patience and gap power driving the ball as often as possible.
Endy Chavez had a nice start to the season, but he’s a #9 hitter, and the fact that he’s left-handed makes him an even worse fit for the #2 spot between Ichiro and Griffey.
Franklin Gutierrez has earned his way back up to the top of the line-up. With the way he’s approaching his plate appearances, he’s earned the reward. Move him back up, Wak.
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i agree with the post great stuff. Like above i’d go Endy #8 if your moving him just to not have LLLRL (although that shouldn’t be the only reason). Sweeney/Griffey need to flip with JoLo. Something roughly like
1. L Ichiro
2. R Gutierrez
3. L Branyan
4. R Beltre
5. R Lopez
6. L/R Griffey/Sweeney
7. R Johjima
8. L Chavez
9. R Yuni
even when Russel slows down he will probably remain the better bat than whoever is playing DH.
Did Guts always have a reputation for being smart and patient at the plate? I know his numbers this year have greatly improved in those areas; is this a new thing or just a promising player hitting his potential?
I read a pretty convincing article about a simulation showing that, perhaps surprisingly, batting order actually matters very little. Going from the Ms current batting order to an optimal order is likely worth less than 1 win a year. With that said, there is no harm in trying to achieve optimality so, I agree with everybody, Wak should move Gutz to the 2 spot. He should also move Yuni to the bench spot, but we all already know that.
Dave,
I completely agree. Gutierrez is probably my favorite hitter to watch and has a textbook approach at the plate. That being said it looks like Wak didn’t see your plea today according to the early line-up card.
1.Ichiro! rf
2.Chavez LF
3.Sweeney DH
4.Branyan 1B
5.Beltre 3B
6.Lopez 2B
7.Johjima C
8.Gutierrez CF
9.Betancourt SS
I guess Junior is sick or something (swine flu ?!?) and Felix isn’t feeling well but is going to start anyways.
Happy (Sick)Felix Day!!
Source?
The Book — which you really should buy, but that chapter is summarized here — says it’s 10 to 15 runs (IIRC, I don’t have it handy), which is 1 to 1.5 wins. And that’s worst to best, so a change from nearly-optimal to optimal will be much less than that.
Great post, Dave. And, I think another push for moving Guty to #2 is that realistically Endy and Wlad (and even Jr on occassion) will be platooning in left more regularly depending on the opponent’s starter (Wlad has earned it), and without playing everyday I think it’s safe to assume Endy’s all-star level batting won’t resurface again (or even if he stayed the everyday left fielder).
Personally, I’d like to see Endy at #9… To put his bunting/situational hitting to use when Yuni gets on (Yuni can just keep being himself, swinging away, hitting behind Johjima), and also to give Ichiro more plate appearances with guys on base.
And taking things a step further, I’d like to see Beltre move back to #3. I think ideally he’s our #4 guy, but for some reason (psychological?) he’s just not dealing with that role well.
Ichiro
Guty
Beltre
Branyan
Griffey
Lopez
Johjima/Johnson
Yuni
Endy
Hopefully, if Wak sticks to his guns about experimenting, we’ll actually see him try a few of the lineups we’re all playing with here…? (Not in a “taking our advice” way, of course, but just hoping he’ll stumble across some of these lineups himself.)
“No. Wlad’s approach is the same as always. ”
Hey, I know I’m predictable (“Chris Jakubauskas has been insulted on the internet…. long-winded reply in 5-4-3-2-1”), but I can’t let this go.
He’s seeing 4.26 pitches per PA, more than Gut. Yes, his swing% is higher and it probably always will be. But as his LD% is high and he’s occasionally driving the ball, I just can’t say it’s a problem (it’s the park adjusted wOBA over .380!).
I think what we have here is less a fundamental change in his approach and more of a key alteration. He’s swinging through fewer pitches, and taking more balls – all of this means he’s actually able to USE his skillset. Gutierrez has a different skillset, and thus his approach is perfect.
Branyan ALSO has an oSW% of 30%, a swing% of 50.2, and a CT% of 75.2%. It’s extremely similar – and Wlad has actually taken a higher percentage of pitches overall (though Branyan’s taken a few fewer strikes). I don’t think Wlad needs to turn himself into Russ Branyan, but Branyan’s approach (and results) has been praised a lot this year. If Wlad keeps improving, or even just keeps his LD% high, he’s a valuable hitter, and I think his patience and improved CT% illustrate something we’ve been waiting for a long time: they indicate improved pitch recognition.
LD% is really volatile.
But, yes, if Wlad can keep hitting the crap out of the ball while swinging at 30% of pitches outside the strike zone, he’ll be good. I’m betting against him turning into Vladimir Guerrero, though.
C’mon, Dave.
I just pointed out that he’s seeing more pitches than Gut/Branyan. He’s making more contact than Branyan as well. Vlad’s totally different, as I’m guessing you know.
P/PA:
Vlad: 3.1-3.3
Wlad: 4.2
Sw%
Vlad: 57-60%
Wlad: ~47%
oSW%
Vlad: 35-53 (over 40% the past few years peaking at 53.5% this year)
Wlad: 30%
This isn’t to claim that Wlad>>>Vlad (though he is now!), just that Vlad’s in a class by himself in terms of approach.
Others in the ~30% oSw% range include Evan Longoria, Miguel Cabrera, Matt Holliday, Hunter Pence, Justin Morneau. Again, this isn’t to claim that it’s the secret to being awesome – just that an oSw% of 30% doesn’t tell you whether or not a hitter is good.
The question was “has anyone else noticed Wlad’s changed approach”. The answer is no, because it hasn’t.
The only difference is that he’s hitting pitches in the strike zone that he swung and missed last year. That’s simultaneously good news and not a change in approach.
The question wasn’t “hey, is Wlad doing better?” That’s obviously a yes, and LD% is relevant to that discussion. But an approach has to do with how often you swing, and what you swing at, and Wlad’s is the same as it always was.
Dave-
some fun facts for you regarding Mike Cameron via The Bill James Handbook.
Coming into 2009, he’s a .250 career hitter with a .340 OBP and a .448 Slg percentage. With 1, 642 strikeouts (!!) accrued (inc. 25 in the post-season) over his 14-year career.
Considering he’s a better pure athlete than about 95% of big-leaguers, I think that part of his game constitutes under-achieving.
To be fair, he is in range of 300 HR and 300 SB for his career (at end of ’08, was at 241 jacks and 289 bags).
But I don’t think he qualifies as under-rated.
Congratulations, you don’t know what you’re talking about.
Above Average Hitter + Best Center Fielder Of His Time = Hell Of A Player.
Considering that pure athletic ability doesn’t do much to help you hit a baseball (cf. Jordan, Michael, brief baseball career of), you don’t have a valid point.
Besides, focusing on the K’s is making the same stuipd mistake the M’s made in letting him go. Mike Cameron has a career wOBA of .348. Raul Ibanez is a career .352 wOBA guy. Ichiro! is a career .354. Cameron in his career has been pretty much as valuable a hitter – in his own way – as two M’s OFs known for their hitting.
The only think he underacheived on was publicity.
Athletic ability comes into the task of hitting a baseball, JMHawkins.
But, you are fundamentally right (although, IMO Michael Jordan isn’t the greatest pure example of premium athlete unable to hit effectively- he spent his prime athletic years developing other skills. Guys like Wes Chamberlain, Kenny Kelly, Will Pennyfeather and Ruben Rivera definitely make a stronger case to me).
Doesn’t change you being right, though. Have to think of a different tack.
Dave,
is the “Best Centerfielder Of His Time” tag due to UZR ratings (I ask sincerely, not out of smart-assitude…I am still learning all contemporary baseball metrics and haven’t focused on UZR yet)? What’s the criteria?
Keep in mind ten years ago, Griffey could certainly make an argument for that same title. To hear some scouts in roughly the same “time”, Andruw Jones was the greatest thing since sliced bread. And Torii Hunter might have some issues with that statement, as well.
Do the numbers say Cameron was better than all of them?
And “Above Average Hitter” is really vague. Based on what? His wOBA? It sure ain’t his batting average (which I DO NOT think of as completely worthless- it’s just not the be-all and end-all stat that it was treated as for so long)…
I’m sorry, but 1,600+ strikeouts against 750 walks in the same 14-year career….how many players have been roasted for putting up similar career K/BB rates on this site?
Mike Cameron was and is a good player at the highest level. He had a time in his career where he was a goooooooooooood player.
But a “Hell Of A Player”? C’mon. Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez and Grady Sizemore are “Hella Players”.
To me, Mike Cameron is a player that while good to very good, had the potential to be great and wasn’t/isn’t.
But, that’s just what I think- and that’s equated the same as any other person holding an opinion- via their own individualized systemic values.
And, as always, I respect your opinion.
p.s. I am very willing to adopt Yuniesky Betancourt as my new “poster boy for unrealized potential”- I really think before his career’s done, he’ll prove a much more cogent case for that tag. And, in today’s age, he’s making me rip my hair out.
Yes, based on wOBA. Batting Average is completely worthless if you have wOBA to use instead.
See, that’s the genius of wOBA and highlights the problem with AVG and K/BB. wOBA is based on the run-scoring value of all the things a batter does. It takes into account the damage a K does to the offense and weighs it agains the value a BB or a HR or a 2B adds. It lets you compare apples to apples. You’re looking at apples and oranges and complaining the oranges made a lousy pie.
After watching that first inning and the swiftness with which it occurred I really, really want F. Gutierrez batting second.
is the “Best Centerfielder Of His Time†tag due to UZR ratings (I ask sincerely, not out of smart-assitude…I am still learning all contemporary baseball metrics and haven’t focused on UZR yet)? What’s the criteria?
It doesn’t really matter what criteria you use. Scouts loved his defense. Fans loved his defense. UZR loved his defense. Gold glove voters loved his defense.
But, if you want to say he was only as good as Andruw Jones and Darin Erstad, that’s fine, I won’t argue. He was still spectacularly awesome, though.
And “Above Average Hitter†is really vague.
No, it’s not. It means that he produced more runs offensively than the mean of all hitters who played in the same era.
There’s no point arguing over the relative merits of batting average, strikeouts, etc… Those questions have all been answered. We know exactly how much a strikeout hurts run scoring. We know exactly how much a double helps run scoring. Run production is no longer a mystery.
Use any linear weights based metric you want, and they’ll all say the same thing. Cameron was an above average hitter. This isn’t an opinion thing. If you think Cameron was a below average hitter, you’re wrong.
I’m sorry, but 1,600+ strikeouts against 750 walks in the same 14-year career….how many players have been roasted for putting up similar career K/BB rates on this site?
Uhh, none?
But a “Hell Of A Playerâ€? C’mon. Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez and Grady Sizemore are “Hella Playersâ€.
Those guys are best-player-in-the-league candidate. There’s a level of player below best player in the league that is still fantastic.
Put it this way – Mike Cameron has had a better career than Edgar Martinez. If you consider Martinez “a hell of a player”, then you have to consider Cameron the same.
But, that’s just what I think- and that’s equated the same as any other person holding an opinion- via their own individualized systemic values.
Except your values aren’t correct just because you believe them. There are rights and wrongs. This isn’t moral relativism. You can hold a wrong opinion. In this case, you do.
“But an approach has to do with how often you swing, and what you swing at, and Wlad’s is the same as it always was.”
Does it matter that he’s, er, hitting the ball? What I’m talking about a key alteration is that Wlad’s not getting himself out when a pitcher makes a good pitch.
In 2008, Wlad’s contact rate was *11* percentage points below average. In 2009, it’s 2.6% below ave. This is quite a bit of movement. His swing-and-miss percentage is down 6 percentage points. Again, I know he’s not going to become Placido Polanco, but I just don’t think it makes sense to say that nothing’s changed. And it’s abundantly clear that he doesn’t need to be as freakishly unique as Vlad Guerrero to make his approach ‘work’.
As for the Mike Cameron ‘debate,’ uh, keep fighting the good fight, Dave. This isn’t a debate, really, because holy crap Mike Cameron really is one of the most underrated players of our generation.
Seeing Gut hit tonite was satisfying. He was so relaxed at the plate. Millwood was throwing first pitch strikes very very often. I don’t know official count but it was often, believe me. Gut hit his first pitch for a 3 run HR. It was beautiful.
Except your values aren’t correct just because you believe them. There are rights and wrongs. This isn’t moral relativism. You can hold a wrong opinion. In this case, you do.
Truth is like beauty, in the eye of the beholder.
If I were partially colorblind, and grass was red to me…just because it’s green to you doesn’t make it green for me. To me, it’d be red, even if the whole world’s telling me that that’s what they consider green.
My values aren’t correct to you. Just because you own a set of numbers that directly contradict what my own numbers say does not make them right, automatically. They are by definition debatable standards, not carved-in-stone fact that I’m smacking face-first into.
My numbers presented thus far say you’re a bit more wrong than right. Your numbers say I’m wrong, period. End of discussion, period again.
And the wheels of the bus go ’round and ’round. Isn’t baseball great that way?
Put it this way – Mike Cameron has had a better career than Edgar Martinez. If you consider Martinez “a hell of a playerâ€, then you have to consider Cameron the same.
A few unsolicited words about what I think of Edgar Martinez :
I consider Martinez the best to do what he did in baseball’s framework of his era, which was- be a DH. As such, I think he should be inducted in the Hall Of Fame at the earliest opportunity.
If sportswriters and umpires have a place in Cooperstown for what they contributed to the game in their era, then so does a DH. And, therefore, so does Martinez. And after 35-plus years of a DH being part of baseball, “small sample size!” or “it’s not pure baseball!” doesn’t cut it for an exclusionary case.
And now, back to the discussion:
You’re using Edgar Martinez on a pure offensive numbers format, comparing him to Cameron- the same format that purists would use to vote to keep him out. It can generally be agreed that Edgar’s pure numbers don’t really add up to a HoF career, except in the context of how and where he compiled them.
Cameron was/is a centerfielder, a position with historically offensive expectations higher (in order to be considered great) than what would reasonably be expected from a DH, even Edgar.
Look, Dave, how about this: I promise to re-examine my opinion of Mike Cameron (after a thorough dissection of how wOBA and some other metrics you use work), and if I come to the conclusion that I am wrong with all the data I deem relevant, I will be more than glad to say “Hey, Dave’s so right on that thing, and I’m so wrong!”
It doesn’t cost me anything in ego if it happens. You’ve no doubt had it happen before, as well as the converse.
So let me lie in my red grass and enjoy my orange pie in the meantime!
(Orange pie, yuck….doesn’t even sound appetizing…I like that analogy, JMHawkins.)
I’m not even going to touch the rest of that, but why would your offensive expectations for a center fielder to be “great” be higher than that of a DH, who by definition offers no defensive value?
Just from a historical context, Jeff. There’s been more great centerfielders than there have been DHs, and a higher standard of greatness has been achieved at that position.
Maybe I should look at my wording on that post again. I do loves me that “Click to edit” button….
Up to 2008’s end, Cameron has 856 RBI and scored 935 runs himself.
What is the mean of players in this era? Wait-a-minnit. I’ll bet FanGraphs has it.
Truth is like beauty, in the eye of the beholder.
Um, if that were true, science as we know it would not exist.
There’s been more great centerfielders than there have been DHs
Thanks for stating the obvious. There have been centerfielders since 1800-something. There have been DHs since 1973. Of course there have been more great centerfielders, there have been way more centerfielders than DHs, period.
If I were partially colorblind, and grass was red to me…just because it’s green to you doesn’t make it green for me. To me, it’d be red, even if the whole world’s telling me that that’s what they consider green.
I… uhh. Umm.
Seriously?
Really?
I give up. Enjoy your philosophy classes. Let me know when you regain your sanity, and we’ll work you through the basics of life – you know, gravity exists, the world is round, and yes, grass is green.
I think we’d all agree that Martinez ranks higher on best DHs of all time (2nd or 3rd) than Cameron ranks on best CFs of all time (not in the top 5). So? That’s apples to oranges, comparing perhaps 30-50 DHs to 600 CF. As an aside, that’s the primary argument that Martinez belongs in the Hall of Fame, but I don’t want to go down that road in this thread.
If you rank best DH/1B from 1980 – 2009 and the best CF from 1980 – 2009, I suspect Cameron ranks higher than Martinez.
On philosophy — if I put on rose colored grasses and SEE the grass as brown, that doesn’t change the fact that the grass is green.
To the real topic at hand. Gutierrez is terrific defensively. With rare exception, other than shortstops, terrific defensive players don’t get much recognition. “We” notice players who make flashy plays or great plays but not those who consistently make an above average number of plays.
Well, Felix knows how valuable his outfielders are, and isn’t afraid to show it. (And thus the gay porn thread is complete).