I Have Come To Praise Franklin Gutierrez
Coming into the season, we knew Gutierrez could play defense. After the Putz trade was announced, we spent thousands of words telling anyone who would listen that the Mariners just acquired Mike Cameron-lite, an elite defensive center fielder who would more than make up for his offensive shortcomings with spectacular defense and the results would be manifest in improved results for the pitchers.
That’s all been true, and obvious to anyone who watched the games. If you haven’t figured out by now that Gutierrez is one of the best defensive players in baseball, I don’t know what to tell you. If you haven’t realized that defense matters and the three centerfielders plan can yield positive results, you might want to start following basketball or something.
But I’m not here to talk about Franklin Gutierrez’s defense. I’m here to praise the man’s offense, and beg for him to be reinserted into the #2 slot in the batting order.
Forget the results for a second. Gutierrez had a good weekend, and his seasonal line is now above average for a hitter. Obviously, if he could keep that up, it would be the best mark of his career to date. But it’s easy to talk up a guy’s offense after a good week early in the season inflates his season totals. Let’s talk about how Gutierrez is approaching each at-bat.
On a team full of hackers, Gutierrez stands out as an oasis in the desert. His swing percentage for 2009 is 37.6%, second lowest on the team (only Endy Chavez swings less at 36.9%). Lopez, Beltre, and Betancourt swing about 55% of the time. That 18% difference is what enables Gutierrez to work the count, get into situations where he can sit on a fastball, and make the opposing pitcher work. He hasn’t drawn 10 walks so far by accident. Pitchers aren’t scared of Gutierrez, but he’s making them throw strikes. Not just one strike, but multiple strikes in every at-bat. If you aren’t around the plate, you’re going to throw Gutierrez a lot of pitches before you end up putting him on base.
Gutierrez and Betancourt have seen the same amount of balls and strikes this season – 51.8% of the pitches thrown to Gutierrez have been in the zone, compared with 52% to Betancourt. Gutierrez has 10 walks and is seeing 4.00 pitches per plate appearance, while Yuni has yet to walk and is seeing 3.31 pitches per plate appearance. That’s all approach. That’s why Gutierrez has made 7 less outs despite having a batting average 20 points lower, and those extra outs are extremely valuable.
Wakamatsu began the season with Gutierrez in the #2 spot, and he had the right idea – he’s the perfect hitter for that slot on this team. With Ichiro leading off, you want a patient hitter in the #2 spot in order to give him an opportunity to steal bases. With Griffey hitting 3rd against RHP, you want a guy in the #2 spot who can hit LHPs, in order to minimize the opponents ability to get easy platoon advantages late in games. Managers also like a #2 guy who can bunt, and since it’s the spot that will get the second most plate appearances on the team, you’d like the guy to be a competent hitter.
Patient approach? Whacks lefties? Good bunter? Decent hitter? Check, check, check, and check.
Gutierrez is perfect for the #2 spot in the order against both RHPs and LHPs. Against RHPs, you have 1/3/5 LHBs, so having Gutierrez’s ability to hit LHPs will deter opposing managers from bringing in a LOOGY to go after the top of the order. Against LHPs, he’s one of the better hitters on the team, and you want his patience and gap power driving the ball as often as possible.
Endy Chavez had a nice start to the season, but he’s a #9 hitter, and the fact that he’s left-handed makes him an even worse fit for the #2 spot between Ichiro and Griffey.
Franklin Gutierrez has earned his way back up to the top of the line-up. With the way he’s approaching his plate appearances, he’s earned the reward. Move him back up, Wak.
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Gutierrez is awesome. He’s battling Branyan for the first Mariner position player to earn a WAR. Interestingly, Balentien is right there.
Gutierrez was by far the most happy part of the Putz trade for me. Acquiring one of the best defenders in baseball who has a pretty decent bat and some still untapped hitting ability just made me smile. It wouldn’t be surprising if he put up his best hitting numbers this season. He has good contact skills, a very good approach, and some power potential. While I’m still pining for Adam Jones, Gutz relieves the pain a little.
Franklin is awesome…that whole trade was awesome…while I love Putz, we turned him into a haul…
I’d actually consider Endy better at number 8, since if you have a leadoff batter whose a lefty like Ichiro, why stack the lefties as the lineup turns over any more than at the top? Plus, it would give Endy marginally more at-bats than Yuni, which can’t be a bad thing. Otherwise, great post.
Totally agree.
Is his baserunning / base stealing good enough to have him run a lot?
And if you have Guti nearly everyday at #2, does that mean Lopez should settle in @ #6 (since Lopez has alternated between hitting 2nd and 6th this year)?
Hey, this looks like the post I was wishing for in the assessing Wakamatsu discussion. Thanks for making the case, Dave, I hope he can live up to it.
The funny thing about Ichiro batting first is that Ichiro actually hits better against lefties than righties. Over the last couple years that has faded, but Ichiro doesn’t really follow the lefty-lefty rule like most hitters.
This year he’s struggled against lefties just a little bit, but that’s with only 18 AB’s. So, having 3 hitting from the left hand side of the plate in a row isn’t a killer, if one of them is Ichiro, at least in my opinion.
What is strange, and slightly confusing to me, if Gutierrez’s inability to steal. Obviously he’s fast. I mean, the balls don’t just fall into his glove… But he’s got 17 career stolen bases. And none this season, with a manager that runs like nuts. And there are some bad catchers out there, who can’t throw out baserunners worth a hoot. One comes to mind, but you can’t steal against your own team.
AJ Pierzynski couldn’t throw out Cecil Fielder, or Prince Fielder. Or Cecil Fielder getting a piggy back ride from Prince Fielder, while running to third base. The point being, there are some catchers that Gutierrez really should have some steals against.
Is he really that bad at picking up pitcher’s moves that he doesn’t even bother trying to steal? Or is it something different?
Dave,
Thank you for making the point about allowing Ichiro time to steal a base. Against the White Sox it seemed like there were a number of times when it would have been nice to take the free bag but the next hitter was swinging away at the first pitch.
So, having 3 hitting from the left hand side of the plate in a row isn’t a killer, if one of them is Ichiro, at least in my opinion.
You really don’t want Griffey or Branyan to have to face an LHP if you don’t have to. Whether Ichiro hits LHPs better or not isn’t the question, because opposing managers are still going to see L-L-L-R-L at the top of the order and salivate.
With the way the line-up is structured when Endy hits second, Junior and Branyan are going to get exploited by lefty relievers all year long. By hitting Gutierrez second, you can limit the reward, where the LOOGY only gets to come in to face 3-4-5, which is less appealing to a manager.
There’s no reason to give opponents an inning of easy outs by lining up LLLRL at the top of the order.
I agree with having Chavez hit in the #9 spot. To me, it seems like putting Betancourt in the #9 spot would possibly limit Ichiro’s speed on the base paths if Betancourt did get on base in front of him.
I don’t know that they see LLLRL, I think they see ILLRL. However, if you put Chavez at the #9, its still LLRLRL.
I’m not saying that LLLRL is ideal, but what I’m saying is it doesn’t kill me, especially given that it won’t be LLLRL against most lefthanders, because Griffey won’t be hitting against them.
If you think that managers don’t bring in LHPs to face Ichiro late in games, you haven’t been paying attention for the last eight years.
And, you do realize that Wak has never pinch hit for Griffey, right? Every single time he’s started, he’s stayed in even if the opposing manager has brought in a LH reliever. So, Griffey would be hitting against them.
This is the post I’ve been waiting for… my man-crush on Gutierrez is starting to get a little silly.
(But he just has such sad eyes…. he needs our love…..)
Now I’ll just wait patiently for Derek or Dave to explain Balentein’s new approach at the plate. His ability to recognize pitches has been noticably better this year… SSS or leveling up?
Dave,
Brilliant. Agree 100%.
Can you explain this to me? Why doesn’t Wak say to Yuni and the other hackers, “You WILL take a strike every at bat.”
Enforce patience. Little League coaches do it. (I did when I coached) High School coaches do it. I suspect college coaches do it. If a manager can order them to take a pitch 3-0, why not a standing order that you will force the pitcher to throw a strike before you take your bat off your shoulder?
Of course Ichiro has some left handed pitchers brought into face him. However, how many times does that happen compared to other lefties? I would guess that its significantly less. In fact, right handed relievers with a slider dominate Ichiro by throwing away, away, and then running the slider down into his feet to get the strikeout.
Yes, and this HAS to change. Period.
However, this weakness against the line up is only revealed when the M’s face righthanded starters (when Griffey is batting), and then face a lefthanded reliever later in the game. At this point, you have just as much chance of seeing Chavez-Ichiro-Gutierrez as you have seeing Ichiro-Gutierrez-Griffey. Either way, its 2 lefties and a righty.
Again, I’m not arguing that Gutierrez shouldn’t be in the 2 spot… At least not against LHSP. However, against RHSP, I’d rather see Chavez hit #2, and see Griffey pinch-hit for with Sweeney or The Mole… Err… Balentien.
Although Gut is doing so well and I am pleased with his performance, it still is like a kick in the stomach when I see A. Jones’ stats. He would be our 3rd or fourth batter.
How long will Wak keep Jr. 190/338/317 batting 3rd? Arrrrhhhg! And Beltre 216/250/284 at 4th? Beltre needs to be in there for defense but can’t he be moved down?
How long can this team keep winning with this 3 and 4 tandem hitting so poorly? This part of the batting order reminds me of last year with Vidro and Sexson tandem. Yuck!!
“Can you explain this to me? Why doesn’t Wak say to Yuni and the other hackers, “You WILL take a strike every at bat.” ”
Yuni is 27 years old. I’d go so far to argue that at this point there is nothing you can do change the approach Yuni has at the plate. Making it mandatory that Yuni takes a strike isn’t going to make much (if any) of a difference. Opposing pitchers will catch on to taking the first strike pretty darn quick.
I think the parallels between Cameron and Franklin Gutierrez are pretty staggering. But the primary difference is that Cameron was a ‘guess hitter’ with a less than palatable rate of guessing right.
Gutierrez is showing far more of a plan up there, and from what I can tell, isn’t guessing that much.
But what I wonder is, Cameron has always been my poster boy for “he’s pretty good, but there’s so much else he could have been” players. Is Gutierrez in the same file?
I just wonder how much Gutierrez can hone his game from here. The lack of stolen bases is puzzling. I think his power isn’t quite as high as Cameron’s, but does anyone else see 20-20 potential in Gutierrez, like I do?
Gutierrez should hit 2nd, simply put.
Now I’ll just wait patiently for Derek or Dave to explain Balentein’s new approach at the plate. His ability to recognize pitches has been noticably better this year… SSS or leveling up?
I’m glad somebody mentioned Balentien. I was wondering if anybody else noticed the same thing.
I think it qualifies as small sample size up to this point, but I’m seeing a profound difference in his at-bat approach. I hope it continues.
Before this year, I was of the mind that while Balentien had intriguing physical tools, his swing was a poor fit for Safeco.
And he was so overmatched at times in 2008.
He had one (easily decipherable by even mediocre ML pitchers) plan, and that was to try and hit every pitch he thought he could hit 700 feet.
Now, I see him and it’s like, he only swings like that at pitches that are thrown right in his wheelhouse and when the situation is right. Otherwise, he looks like he’s trying to do something constructive with what pitches he’s given, and be patient.
I had him as a career platoon, if he proved he could hit ML pitching enough. If he keeps this up, I may have to revise that estimation upward. And I think his defense is better than generally given credit for. He’s not Manny Ramirez out there.
Why not tell him to do it every other at bat no matter what then switch thier pattern every game as to what part he does that in. That would make it much more difficult to pick up on and maybe (yeah right) just maybe he will want to do that on his own to improve his hitting.
Can you explain this to me? Why doesn’t Wak say to Yuni and the other hackers, “You WILL take a strike every at bat.”
It wouldn’t fix the problem. The problem is that Betancourt and Lopez are, to put it bluntly, stupid hitters. They believe that contact is the goal, that strikeouts are the worst outcome possible, and as long as they put the bat on the ball, they have done their job. Their athletic abilities have carried them to the major leagues despite their intelligence levels, but they are essentially incapable of grasping the “if I swing less, I’ll do better” paradigm.
Making them take a strike won’t make them less stupid.
I would guess that its significantly less.
I would guess that it’s not. I guess we’re at a standstill, unless you want to go do a bunch of research.
However, this weakness against the line up is only revealed when the M’s face righthanded starters (when Griffey is batting), and then face a lefthanded reliever later in the game.
You realize this qualification is ridiculous, right? Only against RHP starters when an LHP enters later in the game. That’s about 70% of all games.
At this point, you have just as much chance of seeing Chavez-Ichiro-Gutierrez as you have seeing Ichiro-Gutierrez-Griffey. Either way, its 2 lefties and a righty.
Managers aren’t going to bother bringing in a LOOGY to go after Endy Chavez. He’s Endy Chavez. He’s a bad hitter versus RHP and LHP. They won’t waste a reliever getting a guy like that out.
However, against RHSP, I’d rather see Chavez hit #2, and see Griffey pinch-hit for with Sweeney or The Mole… Err… Balentien.
You realize you’re arguing that you want a worse hitter to get more at-bats in lieu of a better hitter, and you’re arguing for suboptimal order of handedness? Why? Do you really think Chavez’s one week hot start was real? Do you not realize that he’s a lousy hitter?
But what I wonder is, Cameron has always been my poster boy for “he’s pretty good, but there’s so much else he could have been” players.
You’re crazy. Mike Cameron is the most underrated player of the last 20 years.
Nice post, Dave.
Can anyone tell me where I can find swing percentages for all MLB hitters? I’ve googled it without success. I’m curious to find out where Yuni and the other hackers on the Ms fall in the spectrum.
I’m glad somebody mentioned Balentien. I was wondering if anybody else noticed the same thing about his approach.
No. Wlad’s approach is the same as always. 30% O-Swing% (bad), 51% swing percentage (aggressive), 78% contact rate (okay, not great).
Balentien isn’t swinging through strikes as much as he did last year, which is obviously a good thing, but his approach is the same as always. He’s still a hack who is more than willing to get himself out on a pitch out of the zone. H
Can anyone tell me where I can find swing percentages for all MLB hitters?
As with everything else in life, FanGraphs is the answer.
Dave,
I agree with you that they are stupid – but talented hitters.
Isn’t this what coaches/managers get paid to do? Teach, and if necessary, enforce playing the game the right way?
How would other major league managers approach this? What would Lou have done?
I am all for Gutierrez batting second, and Chavez batting ninth. And not just because Gutierrez fits so well in at second now, but because Chavez is so ideally suited for the ninth spot. For pretty much any other team, the ninth spot in the line-up would be an infinitesimal matter, but the M’s are in a unique position. By building themeselves around a lead-off man. Since 82% of Ichiro’s 200+ hits a year are singles, you need speed at the bottom of the order to maximize run production potential. Even if Chavez hits his career average he can score a lot of runs in that spot. He probably isn’t going to draw as many walks in that slot as he has batting second, but he will be the best guy to score or advance on Ichiro singles when he is on. With Chavez the offense you get from him is found money, he needs to be where he is best suited. Gutierrez is a better hitter all around and is more capable of batting in runs than Chavez could ever be, and he will come up a lot with a chance to score Chavez & Ichiro with a single.
Dave,
How long do you think it will take before Wak moves Junior down in the lineup? I would rather have Branyon hitting 3rd followed by Beltre,Lopez then Junior.
If we agree that a team should try to alternate handedness in it’s batting order and Gutz is batting 2nd, how about going Ichiro, Gutz, Branyon (though his BABIP is not sustainable right now, he’s still better than Griffey), Lopez, Griffey, Beltre? 8th would be Chavez and 9th Yuni so that the lineup would alternate still through the 8, 9, and 1 spot in the lineup.
Isn’t this what coaches/managers get paid to do? Teach, and if necessary, enforce playing the game the right way?
It’s almost impossible to teach a major league player something. Once they’ve gotten to the majors, the natural instinct to stick with what got you there takes over. The time to fix this was in the minor leagues. At this point, the only solution is to make them someone else’s problem.
How long do you think it will take before Wak moves Junior down in the lineup? I would rather have Branyon hitting 3rd followed by Beltre,Lopez then Junior.
Meh – Junior’s fine. Don’t overreact to a month’s worth of BABIP results.
Right right. It is getting pretty clear the love fest for Endy is declining and with his bunting skills etc a 7 or 8 spot would be best. I’m sure after being with the team a month Franklin’s more relaxed and should help his hitting batting at the 2 spot like it did for Lopez.
Yes Dave, I agree completely — though I’m a bit surprised you didn’t mention his bases-loaded walk in the 13th yesterday. Coming to the plate in that situation, with the team down three, you know swinging for the fences and a heroic grand slam crossed his mind. I know everybody in the stadium thought about it, and the guys on the barstools next to me said it out loud. But Franklin had just seen Kenji get a walk (his first of the year!) from an obviously-struggling pitcher, so standing up there and waiting for the guy to show he could still throw a strike was the right approach. And it paid off. He didn’t hit into a double-play. He didn’t weakly pop out. He knew who was in trouble in that situation, and it wasn’t him. It wasn’t necessary for him to hit a grand slam, but it was necessary for the pitcher to try to get him out. That’s not just a decent hitter, that’s a smart hitter.
I wonder if this is a major factor in Wakamatsu’s decision-making; he certainly understands platoon matchups, so perhaps the fact that he likes the bunt so much and Endy has been giving clinics on the skill is enough to outweigh everything else?
Yeah, that makes sense…but then when Endy does get on you have Betancourt getting asked to bunt him over…
How many times has Ichiro had two more lefties batting after him? Regardless of what might have happened in the past, you have to consider the likelihood under those conditions now.
Well, if that is how Lopez thinks, his outcomes this weekend have certainly reinforced it.
By the way, since I have a chance to pimp Mike Cameron again:
Jim Rice, Hall Of Famer: 42.9 WAR
Mike Cameron, Not Hall Of Famer: 42.6 WAR
That doesn’t count Cameron’s +1.9 WAR that he’s already accumulated this year (seriously, he’s having an amazing start to ‘09). I’m not arguing that Cameron belongs in Cooperstown… but he’s not that far away.
Outlyers in Mariners’ year to data BABIP by hitter (from Fangraphs):
Due for regression:
Balentien – .393 in ‘09, .289 career
Branyan – .370, .308
Chavez – .347, .298
Due for improvement:
Cedeno – .158, .298
Griffey – .217, .294 (though a realistic number based on recent history is around .270-.280)
Johjima – .226, .274
Beltre – .256, .291
Just wanted to add this because of Dave’s ask that we wait for Griffey to hit (which is reasonable given his BABIP).
Excellent analysis Dave. Gut’s patience at the plate is just icing on top of his spectacular play at CF. Compared to his career stats he definitely seems to have a different approach at the plate this season. I just hope he can maintain this type of plate discipline consistently.
I agree that Cameron doesn’t get the credit he is due. M’s Fans should realize that. He was a key figure on a team that won 393 games in four years.
And the 2002 team won 93 games despite carrying Ugeto and Gipson on the team most of the year, Cirillo, Baldwin and Sierra, Abbott going out early, calling up Soriano, Mateo and Snelling probably before they were ready and more. He wasn’t the only reason they were good, but he was an integral part of the foundation of this team that allowed them to be in first place most of the time he was here, and keep contending in in the midst of disasters all over the place.
Dave, would you say Gut or A. Jones is a more valuable CF, considering both O and D, of course? And Future once Gut settles down?
Thanks for pointing me to Fangraphs, Dave.
For those interested, Yuni is #4 on the list of qualified MLB players with the worst swing percentages in 2009. Beltre is #8.
Jones, and it’s not close. He’s one of the five best under-25 players in baseball.
Thanks for pointing me to Fangraphs, Dave.
You should read the FanGraphs blog. I’ve heard a pretty good looking guy writes over there a lot.
How does AJ compare defensively to Gut?
Jones is a good defensive CF. Gutierrez is fighting Carlos Gomez for the title of best defensive outfielder on the planet.
The defensive difference doesn’t make up for the significant gap in offensive potential, though. Gutierrez is a nice replacement for Jones, but trading AJ was such a disastrously bad decision that we’ll never live it down.
Seriously, the next time someone tells you that you should make a trade for a proven veteran because, after all, they’re “just prospects”, punch them in the face.
Actually, how do Jones (current), Gutierrez (current), and Cameron (2001)compare statistically?
Can I find this on fangraphs?
UZR data on FanGraphs only goes back to ‘02, but MGL has been tracking it since ‘99, and Cameron was something like a +20 to +25 center fielder during his prime.
Gutierrez is about a +15 to +20 CF right now.
Jones is about a +5 to +10 CF right now.
I know , Dave, it still makes me sick. When that was going down I did not believe that Bavasi would give all of that up especially Jones. And I was livid that they would not bring Jones up and play him when Ibanez was playing hurt. Yuck.
Gutierrez is not in his prime yet, right?
Defensively, he is. Defense peaks early.
Offensively, he’s getting close.
The next question costs you $100.
Oh. I should have waited?
I’m in.
Beyond just the tactical logic, I think Wak would do well to “promote” Guetierrez for taking pitches and working deep counts. I was just skimming through the minor-league roundup and noted Ezequiel Carrera’s 0 K/7 BB walk line last week (and his league leading 19 total BBs). That is the kind of hitting we need to promote in this organization.
But the primary difference is that Cameron was a ‘guess hitter’ with a less than palatable rate of guessing right.
Cameron had a wOBA of like .360 through his prime (which we got to enjoy here). That’s a pretty damn good hitter. Add in the defense, and I’m with Dave – he’s so badly underrated it’s pathetic. He was a +4 to +5 WAR guy when he was here – that’s better than Felix right now (maybe not in a few years, but right now).
Put it this way – if Felix lives up to his potential, he’ll be a little bit better than Cammy was when he was here.
But I’m sure Dave just likes him for his last name.
Is it too late for a “I Have Come To Praise Mike Cameron” post?
i agree with the post great stuff. Like above i’d go Endy #8 if your moving him just to not have LLLRL (although that shouldn’t be the only reason). Sweeney/Griffey need to flip with JoLo. Something roughly like
1. L Ichiro
2. R Gutierrez
3. L Branyan
4. R Beltre
5. R Lopez
6. L/R Griffey/Sweeney
7. R Johjima
8. L Chavez
9. R Yuni
even when Russel slows down he will probably remain the better bat than whoever is playing DH.
Did Guts always have a reputation for being smart and patient at the plate? I know his numbers this year have greatly improved in those areas; is this a new thing or just a promising player hitting his potential?
I read a pretty convincing article about a simulation showing that, perhaps surprisingly, batting order actually matters very little. Going from the Ms current batting order to an optimal order is likely worth less than 1 win a year. With that said, there is no harm in trying to achieve optimality so, I agree with everybody, Wak should move Gutz to the 2 spot. He should also move Yuni to the bench spot, but we all already know that.
Dave,
I completely agree. Gutierrez is probably my favorite hitter to watch and has a textbook approach at the plate. That being said it looks like Wak didn’t see your plea today according to the early line-up card.
1.Ichiro! rf
2.Chavez LF
3.Sweeney DH
4.Branyan 1B
5.Beltre 3B
6.Lopez 2B
7.Johjima C
8.Gutierrez CF
9.Betancourt SS
I guess Junior is sick or something (swine flu ?!?) and Felix isn’t feeling well but is going to start anyways.
Happy (Sick)Felix Day!!
Source?
The Book — which you really should buy, but that chapter is summarized here — says it’s 10 to 15 runs (IIRC, I don’t have it handy), which is 1 to 1.5 wins. And that’s worst to best, so a change from nearly-optimal to optimal will be much less than that.
Great post, Dave. And, I think another push for moving Guty to #2 is that realistically Endy and Wlad (and even Jr on occassion) will be platooning in left more regularly depending on the opponent’s starter (Wlad has earned it), and without playing everyday I think it’s safe to assume Endy’s all-star level batting won’t resurface again (or even if he stayed the everyday left fielder).
Personally, I’d like to see Endy at #9… To put his bunting/situational hitting to use when Yuni gets on (Yuni can just keep being himself, swinging away, hitting behind Johjima), and also to give Ichiro more plate appearances with guys on base.
And taking things a step further, I’d like to see Beltre move back to #3. I think ideally he’s our #4 guy, but for some reason (psychological?) he’s just not dealing with that role well.
Ichiro
Guty
Beltre
Branyan
Griffey
Lopez
Johjima/Johnson
Yuni
Endy
Hopefully, if Wak sticks to his guns about experimenting, we’ll actually see him try a few of the lineups we’re all playing with here…? (Not in a “taking our advice” way, of course, but just hoping he’ll stumble across some of these lineups himself.)
“No. Wlad’s approach is the same as always. ”
Hey, I know I’m predictable (”Chris Jakubauskas has been insulted on the internet…. long-winded reply in 5-4-3-2-1″), but I can’t let this go.
He’s seeing 4.26 pitches per PA, more than Gut. Yes, his swing% is higher and it probably always will be. But as his LD% is high and he’s occasionally driving the ball, I just can’t say it’s a problem (it’s the park adjusted wOBA over .380!).
I think what we have here is less a fundamental change in his approach and more of a key alteration. He’s swinging through fewer pitches, and taking more balls – all of this means he’s actually able to USE his skillset. Gutierrez has a different skillset, and thus his approach is perfect.
Branyan ALSO has an oSW% of 30%, a swing% of 50.2, and a CT% of 75.2%. It’s extremely similar – and Wlad has actually taken a higher percentage of pitches overall (though Branyan’s taken a few fewer strikes). I don’t think Wlad needs to turn himself into Russ Branyan, but Branyan’s approach (and results) has been praised a lot this year. If Wlad keeps improving, or even just keeps his LD% high, he’s a valuable hitter, and I think his patience and improved CT% illustrate something we’ve been waiting for a long time: they indicate improved pitch recognition.
LD% is really volatile.
But, yes, if Wlad can keep hitting the crap out of the ball while swinging at 30% of pitches outside the strike zone, he’ll be good. I’m betting against him turning into Vladimir Guerrero, though.
C’mon, Dave.
I just pointed out that he’s seeing more pitches than Gut/Branyan. He’s making more contact than Branyan as well. Vlad’s totally different, as I’m guessing you know.
P/PA:
Vlad: 3.1-3.3
Wlad: 4.2
Sw%
Vlad: 57-60%
Wlad: ~47%
oSW%
Vlad: 35-53 (over 40% the past few years peaking at 53.5% this year)
Wlad: 30%
This isn’t to claim that Wlad>>>Vlad (though he is now!), just that Vlad’s in a class by himself in terms of approach.
Others in the ~30% oSw% range include Evan Longoria, Miguel Cabrera, Matt Holliday, Hunter Pence, Justin Morneau. Again, this isn’t to claim that it’s the secret to being awesome – just that an oSw% of 30% doesn’t tell you whether or not a hitter is good.
The question was “has anyone else noticed Wlad’s changed approach”. The answer is no, because it hasn’t.
The only difference is that he’s hitting pitches in the strike zone that he swung and missed last year. That’s simultaneously good news and not a change in approach.
The question wasn’t “hey, is Wlad doing better?” That’s obviously a yes, and LD% is relevant to that discussion. But an approach has to do with how often you swing, and what you swing at, and Wlad’s is the same as it always was.
Dave-
some fun facts for you regarding Mike Cameron via The Bill James Handbook.
Coming into 2009, he’s a .250 career hitter with a .340 OBP and a .448 Slg percentage. With 1, 642 strikeouts (!!) accrued (inc. 25 in the post-season) over his 14-year career.
Considering he’s a better pure athlete than about 95% of big-leaguers, I think that part of his game constitutes under-achieving.
To be fair, he is in range of 300 HR and 300 SB for his career (at end of ‘08, was at 241 jacks and 289 bags).
But I don’t think he qualifies as under-rated.
Congratulations, you don’t know what you’re talking about.
Above Average Hitter + Best Center Fielder Of His Time = Hell Of A Player.
Considering that pure athletic ability doesn’t do much to help you hit a baseball (cf. Jordan, Michael, brief baseball career of), you don’t have a valid point.
Besides, focusing on the K’s is making the same stuipd mistake the M’s made in letting him go. Mike Cameron has a career wOBA of .348. Raul Ibanez is a career .352 wOBA guy. Ichiro! is a career .354. Cameron in his career has been pretty much as valuable a hitter – in his own way – as two M’s OFs known for their hitting.
The only think he underacheived on was publicity.
Athletic ability comes into the task of hitting a baseball, JMHawkins.
But, you are fundamentally right (although, IMO Michael Jordan isn’t the greatest pure example of premium athlete unable to hit effectively- he spent his prime athletic years developing other skills. Guys like Wes Chamberlain, Kenny Kelly, Will Pennyfeather and Ruben Rivera definitely make a stronger case to me).
Doesn’t change you being right, though. Have to think of a different tack.
Dave,
is the “Best Centerfielder Of His Time” tag due to UZR ratings (I ask sincerely, not out of smart-assitude…I am still learning all contemporary baseball metrics and haven’t focused on UZR yet)? What’s the criteria?
Keep in mind ten years ago, Griffey could certainly make an argument for that same title. To hear some scouts in roughly the same “time”, Andruw Jones was the greatest thing since sliced bread. And Torii Hunter might have some issues with that statement, as well.
Do the numbers say Cameron was better than all of them?
And “Above Average Hitter” is really vague. Based on what? His wOBA? It sure ain’t his batting average (which I DO NOT think of as completely worthless- it’s just not the be-all and end-all stat that it was treated as for so long)…
I’m sorry, but 1,600+ strikeouts against 750 walks in the same 14-year career….how many players have been roasted for putting up similar career K/BB rates on this site?
Mike Cameron was and is a good player at the highest level. He had a time in his career where he was a goooooooooooood player.
But a “Hell Of A Player”? C’mon. Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez and Grady Sizemore are “Hella Players”.
To me, Mike Cameron is a player that while good to very good, had the potential to be great and wasn’t/isn’t.
But, that’s just what I think- and that’s equated the same as any other person holding an opinion- via their own individualized systemic values.
And, as always, I respect your opinion.
p.s. I am very willing to adopt Yuniesky Betancourt as my new “poster boy for unrealized potential”- I really think before his career’s done, he’ll prove a much more cogent case for that tag. And, in today’s age, he’s making me rip my hair out.
Yes, based on wOBA. Batting Average is completely worthless if you have wOBA to use instead.
See, that’s the genius of wOBA and highlights the problem with AVG and K/BB. wOBA is based on the run-scoring value of all the things a batter does. It takes into account the damage a K does to the offense and weighs it agains the value a BB or a HR or a 2B adds. It lets you compare apples to apples. You’re looking at apples and oranges and complaining the oranges made a lousy pie.
After watching that first inning and the swiftness with which it occurred I really, really want F. Gutierrez batting second.
is the “Best Centerfielder Of His Time” tag due to UZR ratings (I ask sincerely, not out of smart-assitude…I am still learning all contemporary baseball metrics and haven’t focused on UZR yet)? What’s the criteria?
It doesn’t really matter what criteria you use. Scouts loved his defense. Fans loved his defense. UZR loved his defense. Gold glove voters loved his defense.
But, if you want to say he was only as good as Andruw Jones and Darin Erstad, that’s fine, I won’t argue. He was still spectacularly awesome, though.
And “Above Average Hitter” is really vague.
No, it’s not. It means that he produced more runs offensively than the mean of all hitters who played in the same era.
There’s no point arguing over the relative merits of batting average, strikeouts, etc… Those questions have all been answered. We know exactly how much a strikeout hurts run scoring. We know exactly how much a double helps run scoring. Run production is no longer a mystery.
Use any linear weights based metric you want, and they’ll all say the same thing. Cameron was an above average hitter. This isn’t an opinion thing. If you think Cameron was a below average hitter, you’re wrong.
I’m sorry, but 1,600+ strikeouts against 750 walks in the same 14-year career….how many players have been roasted for putting up similar career K/BB rates on this site?
Uhh, none?
But a “Hell Of A Player”? C’mon. Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez and Grady Sizemore are “Hella Players”.
Those guys are best-player-in-the-league candidate. There’s a level of player below best player in the league that is still fantastic.
Put it this way – Mike Cameron has had a better career than Edgar Martinez. If you consider Martinez “a hell of a player”, then you have to consider Cameron the same.
But, that’s just what I think- and that’s equated the same as any other person holding an opinion- via their own individualized systemic values.
Except your values aren’t correct just because you believe them. There are rights and wrongs. This isn’t moral relativism. You can hold a wrong opinion. In this case, you do.
“But an approach has to do with how often you swing, and what you swing at, and Wlad’s is the same as it always was.”
Does it matter that he’s, er, hitting the ball? What I’m talking about a key alteration is that Wlad’s not getting himself out when a pitcher makes a good pitch.
In 2008, Wlad’s contact rate was *11* percentage points below average. In 2009, it’s 2.6% below ave. This is quite a bit of movement. His swing-and-miss percentage is down 6 percentage points. Again, I know he’s not going to become Placido Polanco, but I just don’t think it makes sense to say that nothing’s changed. And it’s abundantly clear that he doesn’t need to be as freakishly unique as Vlad Guerrero to make his approach ‘work’.
As for the Mike Cameron ‘debate,’ uh, keep fighting the good fight, Dave. This isn’t a debate, really, because holy crap Mike Cameron really is one of the most underrated players of our generation.
Seeing Gut hit tonite was satisfying. He was so relaxed at the plate. Millwood was throwing first pitch strikes very very often. I don’t know official count but it was often, believe me. Gut hit his first pitch for a 3 run HR. It was beautiful.
Except your values aren’t correct just because you believe them. There are rights and wrongs. This isn’t moral relativism. You can hold a wrong opinion. In this case, you do.
Truth is like beauty, in the eye of the beholder.
If I were partially colorblind, and grass was red to me…just because it’s green to you doesn’t make it green for me. To me, it’d be red, even if the whole world’s telling me that that’s what they consider green.
My values aren’t correct to you. Just because you own a set of numbers that directly contradict what my own numbers say does not make them right, automatically. They are by definition debatable standards, not carved-in-stone fact that I’m smacking face-first into.
My numbers presented thus far say you’re a bit more wrong than right. Your numbers say I’m wrong, period. End of discussion, period again.
And the wheels of the bus go ’round and ’round. Isn’t baseball great that way?
Put it this way – Mike Cameron has had a better career than Edgar Martinez. If you consider Martinez “a hell of a player”, then you have to consider Cameron the same.
A few unsolicited words about what I think of Edgar Martinez :
I consider Martinez the best to do what he did in baseball’s framework of his era, which was- be a DH. As such, I think he should be inducted in the Hall Of Fame at the earliest opportunity.
If sportswriters and umpires have a place in Cooperstown for what they contributed to the game in their era, then so does a DH. And, therefore, so does Martinez. And after 35-plus years of a DH being part of baseball, “small sample size!” or “it’s not pure baseball!” doesn’t cut it for an exclusionary case.
And now, back to the discussion:
You’re using Edgar Martinez on a pure offensive numbers format, comparing him to Cameron- the same format that purists would use to vote to keep him out. It can generally be agreed that Edgar’s pure numbers don’t really add up to a HoF career, except in the context of how and where he compiled them.
Cameron was/is a centerfielder, a position with historically offensive expectations higher (in order to be considered great) than what would reasonably be expected from a DH, even Edgar.
Look, Dave, how about this: I promise to re-examine my opinion of Mike Cameron (after a thorough dissection of how wOBA and some other metrics you use work), and if I come to the conclusion that I am wrong with all the data I deem relevant, I will be more than glad to say “Hey, Dave’s so right on that thing, and I’m so wrong!”
It doesn’t cost me anything in ego if it happens. You’ve no doubt had it happen before, as well as the converse.
So let me lie in my red grass and enjoy my orange pie in the meantime!
(Orange pie, yuck….doesn’t even sound appetizing…I like that analogy, JMHawkins.)
I’m not even going to touch the rest of that, but why would your offensive expectations for a center fielder to be “great” be higher than that of a DH, who by definition offers no defensive value?
Just from a historical context, Jeff. There’s been more great centerfielders than there have been DHs, and a higher standard of greatness has been achieved at that position.
Maybe I should look at my wording on that post again. I do loves me that “Click to edit” button….
Up to 2008’s end, Cameron has 856 RBI and scored 935 runs himself.
What is the mean of players in this era? Wait-a-minnit. I’ll bet FanGraphs has it.
Truth is like beauty, in the eye of the beholder.
Um, if that were true, science as we know it would not exist.
There’s been more great centerfielders than there have been DHs
Thanks for stating the obvious. There have been centerfielders since 1800-something. There have been DHs since 1973. Of course there have been more great centerfielders, there have been way more centerfielders than DHs, period.
If I were partially colorblind, and grass was red to me…just because it’s green to you doesn’t make it green for me. To me, it’d be red, even if the whole world’s telling me that that’s what they consider green.
I… uhh. Umm.
Seriously?
Really?
I give up. Enjoy your philosophy classes. Let me know when you regain your sanity, and we’ll work you through the basics of life – you know, gravity exists, the world is round, and yes, grass is green.
I think we’d all agree that Martinez ranks higher on best DHs of all time (2nd or 3rd) than Cameron ranks on best CFs of all time (not in the top 5). So? That’s apples to oranges, comparing perhaps 30-50 DHs to 600 CF. As an aside, that’s the primary argument that Martinez belongs in the Hall of Fame, but I don’t want to go down that road in this thread.
If you rank best DH/1B from 1980 – 2009 and the best CF from 1980 – 2009, I suspect Cameron ranks higher than Martinez.
On philosophy — if I put on rose colored grasses and SEE the grass as brown, that doesn’t change the fact that the grass is green.
To the real topic at hand. Gutierrez is terrific defensively. With rare exception, other than shortstops, terrific defensive players don’t get much recognition. “We” notice players who make flashy plays or great plays but not those who consistently make an above average number of plays.
Well, Felix knows how valuable his outfielders are, and isn’t afraid to show it. (And thus the gay porn thread is complete).