A Fun Comparison
Disclaimer: College statistics don’t mean all that much. This is more for fun than any kind of serious analysis.
Dustin Ackley, 2009, North Carolina: 190 AB, 76 H, 11 2B, 3 3B, 15 HR, 39 BB, 22 K, .400/.508/.726
Evan Longoria, 2006, Long Beach State: 201 AB, 72 H, 13 2B, 2 3B, 11 HR, 40 BB, 29 K, .353/.468/.602
Longoria, obviously, has turned himself into a monster of a hitter. He’s currently hitting .362/.411/.741 for the Rays, and he’s probably the best non-Pujols player in baseball. When he was drafted, he was looked at as a premium defender with a good but not great bat.
Ackley doesn’t have Longoria’s power or defensive abilities, but I do think that we might have undersold his offensive ceiling a bit. There’s Nick Markakis upside with him (though that’s the best case scenario), and right now, he’s pulled himself away from the pack for me. If the draft was tomorrow, I’d be lobbying for Ackley fairly hard. The M’s could really use a young guy with those offensive skills.
Left-handed bat, too!!!
I wouldn’t be disappointed if they picked him.
FWIW, and for the people who missed it, here’s more on Ackley from USSM last year.
But what position does he project to in the majors? He’s got pop and some speed. Corner outfielder? He seems too small to be a major league 1B. Bummer he’s not a middle infielder….
I know scouts have been wanting to see him in the outfield a little more. Worst case scenerio is Ackley avg/above avg in a corner outfield spot?
He’s 6’1″, joser. No everyone can be Richie Sexson, jeez. ;D
I’m really stoked on Ackley too. He seems athletic enough to avoid the dreaded ‘old player’s skills’ that haunt 1B/COF types.
Just for laughs here is Strasburg’s line on the ’09 season.
11-0 1.24 ERA 87.1 IP 164 Ks 17 BBs Oh, and a no hitter this week.
Dave,
If the M’s do decide to go with an arm, is there one that stands out to you in the Gibson,White,Crow,Scheppers grouping?
Taken all in all, right now, I’m hoping for Ackley, too; I just don’t see an arm out there worth taking #2, and Green’s downside seems too great. I’d feel a lot better about Ackley in that spot if I had confidence he could play CF long-term, but I guess we just have to hope for the best. We didn’t pick the best draft to be picking second . . .
The stats that stands out to me is 39 BB and 22 K in 190 AB, incredible.
ackley is my favorite right now. Good ceiling (he could still develop more power to go with his plus contact skills, plus eye, and plus judgment) to go with pretty low probability of failure. None of the other arms really have separated themselves. I like scheppers (oe maybe crow or white) for upside, but all have warts.
I wondered if Ackley played OF/2B like he was planned too…
Ackely’s racked up four innings in the outfield this year. He’s played 1B almost exclusively, to the frustration of scouts everywhere.
He might be athletic enough for second base, but he’s only played OF/1B. He throws right-handed, so a move to second base wouldn’t be totally out of the question, but it’s not something that anyone I’ve talked to has seriously considered.
Are we taking any bets on how long it would be before he’s converted to a reliever?
I would love the M’s to sign Branyan to a 2 year deal, and draft Ackley. That way we have a 1B locked up until Ackley is ready.
I would love the M’s to sign Branyan to a 2 year deal, and draft Ackley. That way we have a 1B locked up until Ackley is ready
Ackley has more value in the OF and he’s not bad at defense it was his arm that was the question during the entire year and he didn’t play so we’ll just have to assume it’s up to full strength. Also his bat is good but there is more doubles than HR in that power of his.
If anything it’ll be Carp securing the 1B spot with Raben giving him competition after Branyan leaves with Ackley in the OF.
Well, if the M’s somehow took Stasburg in the draft I would assume such a conversion would be a near certainty. After all, it would give him the quickest route to the big leagues. And the M’s need relief help the most, since they have so many starters going just a few innings and giving up a lot of runs and we all know the only fix for that is more arms in the bullpen.
Right?
So I understand (via Churchill) that Ackley has started playing CF; it sounds like for a first game, his arm looked fine. Something to monitor.