Minor League Wrap (5/4-10/09)
I was going to make some comment about getting more readers when the M’s weren’t winning, but then they pulled it out in the ninth today, despite Morrow’s efforts to throw it away and Yuni continuing to be awful. I suppose the attention will ramp up as the draft comes along, but then I’ll be looking at more teams to write about, which is a frightening idea.
To the jump!
Signs of Improvement?
Despite multiple hitters regularly making a mess of the Cal League and Carp being on fire to start the season, the Mariners did not have a single mention on the Baseball America Prospect Hot Sheet, until this week, when Saunders made it. A chat went into further detail and Liddi got mentioned, which is good. Now, if only we could get the pitchers back on track. Lorin and possibly Gaby aside, starters ranged from mediocre to awful all week.
Tacoma Rainiers (4-3 this week, 15-15 overall)
The Week in Review:
Monday, May 4th 2009
Tacoma 7, Salt Lake City 9 (LAA + 10)
WP: F. Rodriguez; LP: C. Jimenez; SV: K. Jepsen
Tuesday, May 5th 2009
Tacoma 0, Salt Lake City 13 (LAA + 11)
WP: B. Knox; LP: E. Hull
Wednesday, May 6th 2009
Tacoma 8, Salt Lake City 6 (LAA + 10)
WP: G. Hernandez; LP: S. O’Sullivan; SV: R. Messenger
Thursday, May 7th 2009
Tacoma 13, Salt Lake City 3 (LAA + 9)
WP: B. Downs; LP: M. MacDonald
Friday, May 8th 2009
Colorado Springs 5 (COL + 9), Tacoma 3
WP: J. Peralta; LP: R. Messenger
Saturday, May 9th 2009
Colorado Springs 5 (COL + 8), Tacoma 6
WP: E. Hull; LP: S. Register; SV: R. Messenger
Sunday, May 10th 2009
Colorado Springs 7 (COL + 7), Tacoma 9
WP: B. Downs; LP: J. Grube; SV: S. Shell
Hitter of the Week:
LF Bryan LaHair, L/R, 11/5/1982
6 G, 20 AB, 9 H, 3 2B, 2 HR, 4/7 K/BB, .450/~.593/.900
I came into this wrap utterly convinced that Saunders was going to repeat, until I looked at LaHair’s stats. While Carp has knocked him down a spot on the first base depth chart, LaHair has been scrambling back up after a slow start to the season, playing all but a few of his games in the outfield. Recently, his thing has been walks, with seven of them in the past week and ten for the month of May, in which he’s hitting .346/.541/.692 overall. In addition to that, he’s been terrorizing right-handers, batting .310./396/.655 off of them for the year. Carp is only slightly better. Sorry Saunders, you know I’m a fan, we all are, but I’m going with the other outfield lefty for this week.
Honorable Mention:
CF Michael Saunders, L/R, 11/19/1986
6 G, 22 AB, 8 H, 3 2B, 3 HR, 4 RBI, 5/3 K, .364/~.440/.909
[Dave adds that Saunders now has more extra-base hits in nine games with Tacoma this year than he did in twenty-four games last year. I would add that he’s more than halfway to his walk totals as well]
Dishonorable Mention:
C Jeff Clement, L/R, 8/21/1983
5 G, 17 AB, 3 R, 3 H, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, 1/5 K/BB, .176/~.364/.412
[In his last ten games, he’s only had two with hits]
Pitcher of the Week:
RHP Gaby Hernandez, 5/21/1986
1-0, GS, 3.60 ERA in 5.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 5/1 K/BB, 3/7 G/F
If it were up to me, I’d be tempted to pick “none of the above” for this week, such was the pitching. At least five runs were scored in every game the Rainiers played. Hernandez managed to rise above the rest with only win by a starter. He managed a streak of seven batters in a row retired and another of six, but at the very beginning and in the middle, there were some runs that scored. Nevertheless, the offense did its thing and Hernandez got his first win of the season.
Honorable Mention:
RHP Randy Messenger, 8/13/1981
0-1, 4 G, 2 SV, 0.00 ERA in 4.2 IP, 3 H, 2 R (0 ER), 1/0 K/BB, 6/7 G/F
Dishonorable Mention:
LHP Justin Thomas 1/18/1984
4 G, 12.46 ERA in 4.1 IP, 11 H, 6 R, 6/4 K/BB, 1/5 G/F
[Jimenez sucked in his rehab outing and Shell got hammered his first time out due to rust, but I couldn’t knock them down here too.]
From The Training Room:
Needing someone to fill a spot in the rotation, the Mariners signed RHP Josh Hall out of the Atlantic League and sent him to the mound on Sunday. Hall was a seventh-round pick by the Reds out of high school eleven years ago. Seddon came off the DL for late-game relief appearance on Sunday, but there’s no word of a corresponding move yet. Wilson and Tuiasosopo remain on the DL.
Strange Happenings:
Collectively, those who would be vying for the first base job hit .352/~.452/.690 in 71 at-bats this week. That doesn’t look to be resolving itself any time soon. I just wish we had a place to play them all… Jerry Owens, signed on a minor league contract last week, hit .400/.464/.400 in 25 at-bats, should we decide we really need another slap hitting lefty in the outfield. .. The honorable pitcher for the week, you’ll notice, was Messenger, who took one of the losses. This is deceptive, however, as the deciding run reached on interference and moved to third on a throwing error by Quiroz, and then a second run reached on an error by Morse and scored on an error by Carp. I’d be hard-pressed to find a better example of being let down by the defense… The Rainiers allowed two grand slams in a single inning, the fourth inning of the May 5th game. The last time it was done? By the Calgary Cannons, then a Mariners affiliate, against the Tacoma Tigers way back in 1991. Bizarre.
They Said It:
“You can do a lot of things to help a team win — get on base, hit for power, run, play strong defense, throw. None of those tools are eye-popping, but if a team features you as its third-best outfielder, the team probably is a playoff contender. The big league version of Saunders probably will blend the best qualities of Ryan Church and Travis Buck (the ’07 version).â€
Matt Eddy, to “Michael Saunders†in a Prospect Hot Sheet chat, 5/8/09
The Week in Preview:
4/11, vs. Colorado Springs (COL, 18-11), 11:30 am PDT
4/12-5, at New Orleans (FLA, 12-18), All Times 5:00 pm PDT
4/6-7, at Oklahoma City (TEX, 11-17), 5:05 pm PDT Sat, 2:05 pm PDT Sun
West Tenn Diamond Jaxx (0-5 this week, 10-17 overall)
The Week in Review:
Monday, May 4th 2009
West Tenn 0, Birmingham 3 (CHW +9) (five innings)
WP: A. Poreda; LP: S. Hensley
Tuesday, May 5th 2009
Huntsville 13 (MIL – 1), West Tenn 11
WP: C. Baron; LP: M. Vega; SV: R. Hinton
Wednesday, May 6th 2009
Rained out.
Thursday, May 7th 2009
Hunstville 6 (MIL 0), West Tenn 5 (eleven innings)
WP: J. Wahpepah; LP: N. Hill; SV: O. Aguilar
Huntsville 7 (MIL + 1), West Tenn 1 (seven innings)
WP: M. Holliman; LP: P. Ryan
Friday, May 8th 2009
Hunstville 9 (MIL + 3), West Tenn 4
WP: D. Welch; LP: J. Souza; SV: D. Hand
Saturday, May 9th 2009
Rained out.
Sunday, May 10th 2009
Off day
Hitter of the Week:
CF Gregory Halman, R/R, 8/26/1987
4 G, 14 AB, 4 R, 4 H, 3 2B, HR, RBI, 6/2 K/BB, .286/~.375/.714
Every time I highlight Halman, I feel like I’m condoning his approach, which undoubtedly will get him into serious trouble somewhere along the line. Halman struck out six times in sixteen plate appearances this week. That’s not good at all. But he also walked twice and all four of his hits went for extra-bases. Halman has twenty-three hits this season. Only seven of them are singles. He has ten home runs and is close to having as many doubles as singles. I don’t really get it, but what he’s doing seems to be working for him in some awful, mind-numbing way.
Honorable Mention:
1B Marshall Hubbard, L/R, 4/16/1982
4 G, 12 AB, 4 R, 3 H, 2B, HR, 4 RBI, 5/5 K/BB, .250/~.471/.583
Dishonorable Mention:
SS Oswaldo Navarro, R/R, 10/2/1984
3 G, 6 AB, RBI, 2/1 K/BB, .000/~.143/.000
Pitcher of the Week:
RHP Anthony Varvaro, 10/31/1984
0-0, 2 G, 0.00 ERA in 3.0 IP, 3 H, 3/1 K/BB, 4/2 G/F
Only four games played did not make selecting a pitcher any easier. Here’s a rundown of the week that was in starting pitching: 0-2, 15.2 IP, 27 H (3 HR), 19 R (15 ER), 8/9 K/BB. Thus, I’m left with Varvaro and Rivera, the two relievers who did not suck this week. Both have serious command issues, but Rivera started pitching late and Varvaro had TJ surgery. This is Varvaro’s first full year in the ‘pen, and he’s started out by showing some groundball tendencies uncharacteristic for the rest of his career.
Honorable Mention:
RHP Mumba Rivera, 12/10/1980
0-0, G, 0.00 ERA in 2.0 IP, 3/1 K/BB, 1/2 G/F
Dishonorable Mention:
RHP Justin Souza, 10/12/1985
0-1, 40.50 ERA in 1.1 IP, 8 H, 6 R, 0/2 K/BB, 0/4 G/F
From the Training Room:
Rohrbaugh, Pena, and Orta remain on the DL with no timetable I’ve heard of for their return. Triu is also on the DL, but I suppose that I can just gloss over that until time comes when he might be returning however unlikely that is.
Strange Happenings:
If the D-Jaxx manage to play on Wednesday this week, it will be the first time since April 22nd that they’ve been able to do so… Would you believe that a team with Halman in the lineup could be second in the league in walks? It’s true, the D-Jaxx are six behind the leader, and Carrera maintains a hold on the individual lead with twenty-three.
The Week in Preview:
5/11-5, at Tennessee (CHC, 14-12), All Times 4:15 PDT except Wednesday (8:30 AM PDT)
5/16-7, vs. Birmingham (CHW, 20-8), 5:05 pm PDT Sat, 12:05 pm PDT Sun
High Desert Mavericks (4-3 this week, 21-10 overall)
The Week in Review:
Monday, May 4th 2009
High Desert 6, Rancho Cucamonga 7 (LAA – 5)
WP: E. Jimenez; LP: P. Aumont; SV: I. Carmona
Tuesday, May 5th 2009
Inland Empire 13(LAD – 6), High Desert 16
WP: N. Dilone; LP: D. Rondon; SV: P. Aumont
Wednesday, May 6th 2009
Inland Empire 10 (LAD – 7), High Desert 12 (eleven innings)
WP: S. Richard; LP: A. Gonzalez
Thursday, May 7th 2009
Inland Empire 13 (LAD – 6), High Desert 3
WP: S. Johnson; LP: D. Hume
Friday, May 8th 2009
High Desert 9, Lake Elsinore 7 (SD + 3)
WP: N. Adcock; LP: C. Luebke; SV: P. Aumont
Saturday, May 9th 2009
High Desert 3, Lake Elsinore 4 (SD + 4)
WP: J. McBryde; LP: A. Venegas; SV: B. Oland
Sunday, May 10th 2009
High Desert 14, Lake Elsinore 6 (SD + 3)
WP: S. Penney; LP: W. Pelzer
Hitter of the Week:
1B Joe Dunigan, L/L, 3/29/1986
7 G, 36 AB, 7 R, 13 H, 5 2B, 3 HR, 12 RBI, 8/0 K/BB, .361/~.361/.750
I do so enjoy it when there’s legitimate competition for the top spot. While Scott, one of three Honorable Mentions this seek, had an incredible average, Gillies, an incredible hitting streak, and Liddi had the superior on-base percentage, I go with Dunigan primarily because he hit three home runs in a game. Okay, that game went on for eleven innings, but Dunigan’s performance was unique in that he was the one to initiate scoring with a two-run shot in the first and the one to end it with another one to give the Mavs a walk-off in the eleventh
Honorable Mention:
3B Alex Liddi, R/R, 8/14/1988
6 G, 24 AB, 5 R, 9 H, 3 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 7/3 K/BB, .375/~.444/.750
Also Honorable Mention:
C Travis Scott, L/R, 4/24/1985
5 G, 14 AB, 4 R, 8 H, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, 1/4 K/BB, .571/.667/.857
Also Also Honorable Mention:
CF Tyson Gillies, L/R, 10/31/1988
7 G, 31 AB, 7 R, 12 H, 2 2B, 2 3B, HR, 6 RBI, 4/4 K/BB, 2 SB, .387/~.457/~.677
Pitcher of the Week:
RHP Phillippe Aumont, 1/7/1989
0-1, 3 G, 2 SV, 0.00 ERA in 3.2 IP, H, R (0 ER), 2/0 K/BB, 6/2 G/F
I bring you news from the desert, concerning our friend from the north. So, Aumont’s been pretty good this season. He’s done all of the above: get groundballs, strike batters out, saw bats in half just for the giggles. The month of May has been especially good for him as you’ll see above, but throw out the early April performances and just take the last ten games. What do you see? 10.2 IP, 5 H, 11/2 K/BB. The yips are officially done with it seems, which is a shame, because the Mavericks have been having one hell of a time trying to fill out the fifth spot in the rotation and I think we all would have liked to have seen him there.
Honorable Mention:
RHP Stephen Penney, 8/14/1986
1-0, 3 G, 6.43 ERA in 7.0 Ip, 7 H, 6/1 K/BB, 10/6 G/F
[Had a rough second outing, with five runs in an inning, but his third, with two hits and five Ks in four innings, was gold]
Dishonorable Mention:
LHP Donnie Hume, 8/29/1985
0-1, 54.00 ERA in 1.0 IP, 8 H (HR), 7 R (6 ER), HB, 2/1 K/BB
From the Training Room:
Pineda remains on the DL, although word is that he could come off at any time. Looking at some of the recent outings, the sooner he’s off, the better, but at the same time, let’s not rush it.
Strange Happenings:
Gillies is running on a thirteen-game hitting streak, and an on-base streak that goes on longer than that. From April to May, his average has jumped seventy points, but his slugging is even better, improving by .279, in part due to his three triples in the month… The Mavs boast the league’s best slugging percentage by a .080 margin and the best on-base percentage by more than thirty points, giving them an overall league leading OPS of .928… The night Dunigan hit out his three home runs, there was a 30 mph wind blowing. Ten homers were hit in all, including four against Ramirez, who was saved from possible infamy as a dishonorable by a rough outing by Hume.
They Said It:
“I just wanted to get out of there,†said Dunigan, who leads the California League with 12 homers in only 26 games. “It was the second game in a row we played four hours. We had to get out of there.â€
Dunigan, on his three-homer night, his fifth of the season, MiLB.com article, 5/7/09
The Week in Preview:
5/4, at Rancho Cucamonga (LAA, 9-15), 7:05 pm PDT
5/5-7, vs. Inland Empire (LAD, 9-15), all times 7:05 pm PDT
5/8-10, at Lake Elsinore (SD, 14-10), all times 7:05 pm PDT except Sunday (2:05 pm PDT)
Clinton Lumberkings (5-2 this week, 18-11 overall)
The Week in Review:
Monday, May 4th 2009
Quad Cities 2 (STL + 3), Clinton 12
WP: A. Pribanic; LP: A. Rosales
Tuesday, May 5th 2009
Clinton 7, Dayton 5 (CIN -13)
WP: C. Hann; LP: A. Gonzalez; SV: R. Flores
Wednesday, May 6th 2009
Clinton 5, Dayton 7 (CIN -12)
WP: L. Astorga; LP: C. Kirkland; SV: J. Hotchkiss
Thursday, May 7th 2009
Clinton 6, Dayton 4 (CIN -13) (fourteen innings)
WP: J. Jimenez; LP: A. Bowman; SV: R. Flores
Friday, May 8th 2009
Clinton 5, West Michigan 0 (DET + 11)
WP: B. Lorin; LP: L. Putkonen
Saturday, May 9th 2009
Clinton 6, West Michigan 2 (DET + 10) (eleven innings)
WP: B. LaFromboise; LP: V. Larez
Sunday, May 10th 2009
Clinton 8, West Michigan 9 (DET + 11) (thirteen innings)
WP: T. Stohr; LP: J. Jimenez
Hitter of the Week:
1B Kris Sanchez, L/L, 1/9/1984
5 G, 16 AB, 5 R, 9 H, 2 2B, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 3/6 K/BB, .563/.652/1.250
I usually regard older players who are hitting well with some trepidation. When they’re hitting well, it’s because they ought to be, and when they aren’t, that just proves why they haven’t gotten anywhere yet. Sanchez is in his third season in the system after being signed as a senior NDFA out of Hawaii. He’s yet to begin a season with a full-season club, despite slugging .672 last year, feasting on the Appalachian League’s inexperienced pitching. This week’s performance I can make an exception for. Six walks to three Ks? Five extra-base hits out of nine, a few of which were game changers? Yes, please, I’d like to see more. Preferably from legit prospects, but I’ll take what I can get.
Honorable Mention:
3B Nate Tenbrink, L/R, 12/21/1986
6 G, 29 AB, 8 R, 8 H, 3 2B, 3B, HR, 8 RBI, 8/5 K/BB, CS, .276/~.382/.551
Dishnorable Mention:
3B Mario Martinez, R/R, 11/13/1989
7 G, 34 AB, 6 H, 2 2B, 6/1 K/BB, .176/~.200/.235
Pitcher of the Week:
RHP Brett Lorin, 3/31/1987
1-0, 0.00 ERA in 7.0 IP, 4 H, 6/0 K/BB, 8/7 G/F
I’m still waiting for Lorin to face a truly dominant offense, some team like Great Lakes, but he did completely dominate West Michigan this week. The first nine batters were retired in order, and the Whitecap only threatened to score twice, once because the runner had stolen his way to third and the second because there was a single and a double in the same inning. Lorin is now second in the league in ERA (1.00), third innings pitched (36.0), and fifth in strikeouts (34).
Honorable Mention:
LHP Bobby LaFromboise, 6/25/1986
1-0, 2 G, 1.69 ERA in 5.1 IP, 3 H, R, 8/2 K/BB, 5/3 G/F
Dishonorable Mention:
RHP Blake Nation, 5/16/1987
0-0, 6.75 ERA in 2.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 0/1 K/BB, 4/4 G/F
From the Training Room:
Sanchez made his way onto the roster by replacing Sams, who went on the DL after Monday night’s game. Last year’s 15th-round pick, OF Jake Shaffer joined the team after Daniel Carroll went on the DL following a pitch hitting him on the hand. If that sounds in any way familiar to you, you probably were paying attention to last year’s T-Rats squad. Fuentes also remains DLed.
Strange Happenings:
Late-game ties forced the Lumberkings to play the equivalent of an eighth game and then some this week. Today’s off-day will be very much deserved… Almonte lost the home run lead this week and now trails seven to nine, but he does lead the league in another category: strikeouts. He had seventeen in thirty at-bats in the past week, which is part of why you don’t see him mentioned above. Teammate Maximo Mendez is tied for second on the leaderboard with thirty-six, five behind Almonte. Collectively, the Lumberkings are just one K away from tying for the team lead.
The Week in Preview:
5/12-5, vs. Beloit (MIN, 11-18), All Times 4:30 pm PDT
5/16-7, at Wisconsin (MIL, 11-18), 4:35 pm PDT Sat, Doubleheader at 11:00 am PDT Sun
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46 Responses to “Minor League Wrap (5/4-10/09)”
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Thanks for the recap! Great work as always. That’s the week I sure never expected Bryan LaHair of all people to have…
Where is Kenta Suda this season? It seems he isn’t on any roster yet… is he just receiving instruction?
Jay, in reference to Halman’s approach, is it one that meshes with what the M’s look for statistically in players or will he ultimately be a bargaining chip to acquire a player more in line with how Zduriencik wants to build this team?
And thanks again for doing these recaps!
Thanks for your hard work Jay. Can you tell us a little bit about Lorin? I know he’s a big kid. Does he have any pitches that are plus quality? What does he need to improve on?
Generally, if you don’t see a younger player immediately and they haven’t been released, they’re just in instructs. Suda didn’t do anything to warrant being sent to a full-season club last year. He’ll probably turn up in Everett again, or maybe Pulaski.
I’m not quite sure I understand the question, mainly because I don’t think we know what is going to be valued in terms of player development yet and which traits are going to be emphasized.
We know thus far that Zduriencik favors defense, which is something that works in Halman’s favor as he has the tools to be a plus defender. The power output is also enticing, and if he had been exposed over the off season, you can count on somebody having taken him in the Rule 5.
I don’t think I’m able to give you a good answer to this question, but I’m also not sure why we’re asking it right now. He has two more option years after this one, and some time to develop more in line with what people would want out of him. Usually when you trade someone of his ability, it’s because they’re running out of time. This is not the case with Halman.
Lorin probably has the ability to continue starting. His fastball, when I saw him, was about 92-94, and his slider was solid, but basically there to keep hitters off balance. I was impressed by his location primarily, and I caught him when he was on because everything he was throwing that night was spotted low and away, to both left-handers and right-handers. I’ve heard he also has a change, but I didn’t see it much, as he was sticking pretty heavily to the “establish the fastball” mantra through the first few innings. I see him as a bit unusual, because he has above-average velocity, but his approach is a little different and in terms of stuff, I don’t see any of his pitches grading among the better ones in the system. When I saw him, it seemed like he was a command pitcher operating with bit more in the toolbox than most guys who employ that method. He could change from here out and maybe tighten up one or more of those pitches until they’re really plus offerings, but that’s what I saw last summer.
RHP Mumba Rivera
Sometimes, you just have to pull for a guy with an odd name.
Is it possible for either Aumont or Lorin or both to make their way up from A ball to the bigs this season? With both having considerable success at what point do you think they each at least make a move up to AA or AAA?
“Lorin probably has the ability to continue starting”
-Thats great to hear.
Jay I was also curious about Denny Almonte. What does he bring to the table from the defensive side of things? Does he project as a avg/above avg corner outfielder? And as a hitter, Is he showing improvment from both sides of the plate?
Thanks for your great work Jay. Could you give us an idea on the depth, or lack of depth, on the s.s position?
That’s my justification for paying attention to summer league ball.
That’s not something I really want to think about. Both of them have mechanical issues that could be straightened out with more time in the minors and to rush them unnecessarily wouldn’t be prudent. I realize we look like we need pitching right now in a bad way, but getting a few competent relievers on a struggling team is not a reason to jeopardize development. I think Lorin could end up in High Desert by the all-star break at the earliest, and Aumont could finish in West Tenn, but that’s as much as I want to call it. I don’t think this administration is going to be as inclined towards aggressive promotion as the previous one was, and I think this year’s roster assignments are pretty much an indicator of that.
Hate to tell you, but his ability versus lefties this year has been awful. In fact, that’s where the majority of his strikeouts have been coming from, nineteen in thirty-seven at-bats compared to twenty-two in seventy-one at-bats versus right-handers. Switch-hitters generally show one side to be more dominant, and in Almonte’s case, he has an OPS that’s about .250 better against right-handers than lefties. It doesn’t even seem like he sees the ball quite the same against southpaws, even though the slugging output is roughly the same. As for the D, he should be good, above-average in a corner, where they’ll inevitably move him. The Lumberkings have otherwise been employing the three center fielders model, which as worked out all right for them so far.
“Hate to tell you, but his ability versus lefties this year has been awful”
-Well thats better than being awful against righties 🙂
When is Michael Wilson set to make his 09 debut?
Actually, Gregory was on the Prospect Hot Sheet on the first of May, he ranked 4th to be specific.
He already made his debut, but his ankle has been twisted for over a month now.
We covered this in the roundtable when debating the idea of drafting USC shortstop Grant Green. I’ve since soured on Green a little, and am more inclined to take someone else at two and hope that Jiovanni Mier is on the board when we’re picking again.
The shortstop depth throughout the system is bad. In Tacoma you have quad-A hitters, in double-A you have two glovemen who can’t hit, and in Clinton you have Terry Serrano, who might project as a utility man if you’re being really generous, and Ogui Diaz on the bad days. The top shortstop prospect in the system is perceived to be Gabriel Noriega, one more in the earlier tradition of slick fielding Latin shortstops who probably can’t hit a lick. He may get some average eventually, but not a single person you’d talk to will rate his power anywhere near average.
One name I will throw out there just to see what happens: Juan Habisail Diaz, a twenty-year-old switch-hitter. He was rushed to the states after one year in the DSL and struggled so badly that he couldn’t even crack a .600 OPS in his first two seasons, but it’s been another story this year. He hit .407 in the past week, lost in a greater trend of dominant Mavericks offense, and for the year he’s hitting .373/.407/.490. You can’t say it’s park effect either because he’s actually hitting better on the road. The longer he does this, the more it forces us to pay attention to him.
Whoops, you’re right. Well, then it wasn’t until May that we got our first player on there.
Isn’t there a good argument to be made to the Nationals that they should trade their 1st pick for our 2nd pick + additional picks/MLB-ready players?
The Nationals are in desperate need of help throughout their org. Why not flip for Strasburg for a raft of good players rather than tying their franchise to one guy. And they won’t have to deal with Boras.
Any rumors out there of the Nationals thinking about shopping their pick?
There isn’t an argument to be made because trading picks isn’t allowed in the MLB. I know the other major leagues do it, but baseball hasn’t allowed it and I don’t think they will any time soon.
By the way, since Jay mentioned the draft, Dustin Ackley played entire games in center field on Saturday and Sunday. He’d only played four innings in CF up until this weekend, but scouts got a pretty good look at him in the outfield the last couple of days.
Reports were good. Arm was good enough, athleticism continued to show as he tracked down fly balls. For me, he’s a pretty easy call for the #2 pick right now.
Did not know that. Thanks, Jay
Agreed, Dave. Even though the M’s have some outfield depth they’ve been building on lately, Ackley is simply more talented than most of them and more likely to contribute soon. If the OF prospects we have end up panning out, we can always trade them for help on other fronts.
Thanks, that’s what I figured. He just has killer potential but is as far away from a sure thing as you can get, but I really like his upside. I’ll try to find more information using my highly limited Japanese skills.
Aren’t there major concerns about Ackley’s ability to stay in CF defensive still? Churchill suggested that Saunders and Ackley are very similar, is that a good comparison? If that is the case for the good of the organization if there is someone near his talent level that is starting pitcher (like Scheppers), should we draft that guy instead?
Concerns implies that it has been tried and not really worked. In Ackley’s case, there just isn’t a whole lot of data. Because of his arm surgery, they didn’t want to play him out there and kept him at first despite having pretty good footspeed. I don’t think that he’ll be in the upper tier of defensive outfielders, but he should be at least competent if not better. I think the Saunders comp is fair in that they’re the same type of player, left-handed outfielder, good but not great speed, walk ability, but I think Ackley probably holds up better in the long-run.
As for Scheppers, I just don’t feel comfortable drafting him right now. We’re going to have maybe five starts total with which to judge whether or not he’s back. For a pick later in the round, I’d consider it, but his stock is just too volatile right now.
Taking Scheppers, or really any of the non-Strasburg pitchers, ahead of Ackley is just badly undervaluing risk and overvaluing reward.
“Taking Scheppers, or really any of the non-Strasburg pitchers, ahead of Ackley is just badly undervaluing risk and overvaluing reward.”
I asked this the other day, sorry if i’m being a bother…. Is there a pitcher in the Gibson, Scheppers, White, Crow groupling that stands out to you?
Gibson – he’s the tallest.
(Take that as a no).
Ackley is like Saunders if Saunders stopped striking out and hit for a higher average.
I don’t even like the comp that much, honestly. Saunders is probably going to hit for more power than Ackley, and he doesn’t run as well. He’s 6’4/205, where Ackley is 6’1/185. Saunders contact skill isn’t nearly as good, and his approach at the plate is worse.
Yes, they’re both left-handed hitting outfielders, but they aren’t that similar.
Update on Suda, he pitched 3 perfect innings (probably extended spring training or something) on 40 pitches on Saturday.
I guess the elephant in the room becomes if Ackley is drafted, where will the M’s get their starting rotation for 2010 and 2011. Guys like Pineda, Ramirez, Adcock, Lorin, may not help until 2012 if they are not rushed (or maybe not at all). It sounds like all the AAA/AA guys are #5 SPs or long relievers. The idea of Carlos Silva as a #2 starter next year makes me ill. Do you think Zdureciek will just go dumpster diving and pick a previously damaged FA on a cheap one-year deal or something. Offensively the M’s are attrocious anyways but without serious personnel moves by next season 100 losses would seem very likely on a team where the only positive attribute may be OF defense.
The state of the 2010 rotation has zero bearing on who the M’s should draft.
And, honestly, the rest of your paragraph is just wrong. The team is actually looking pretty solid for next year. Have you noticed that Saunders and Carp are destroying the PCL?
Fair enough.
If you want to draft Scheppers and expect him to produce as a starter in the big leagues in 2010 and 2011, I have a great deal on beachfront property in Oklahoma you might be interested in.
Thanks for the response about the s.s.
I have yet to see Tui for a long duration of time. I saw a couple games at the end of last year and he was a little robotic at 3rd. I love Betre but can see the end with Tui coming up in the rear view. What kind of drop off defensively can we expect. I know we are talking a gold glove but Tui came up as a s.s. Do you think that what we see is the finished product. I know with familiarity with a position a player becomes more fluid.
…and it comes with a championship-quality NBA team.
That is just low, Joser.
“What kind of drop off defensively can we expect.”
A big one. Huge. I’m not sure that Tui’s a 3B long term. If he is, he’s below average. The drop-off from all-world defense to below-average is a hell of a lot of runs.
“Sometimes, you just have to pull for a guy with an odd name.”
Or, alternatively, you could pull for the guy with a blazing fastball to finally get some command even though he’s in his late 20s in AA. Rivera is a poor man’s David Aardsma. He may throw harder, even. But he has no idea where it’s going, and it’s straight as an arrow. It’s like Renee Cortez only more! And with the name ‘Mumba!’
Speaking of the summer leagues, doesn’t the VSL typically start around now?
JH,
Yeah, looks like the season starts on the 18th.
Should Joe Dunigan be taken seriously as a prospect?
That’s something that’s going into the next roundtable or Future Forty update, whichever comes first.
It’s starting to look like it. He cut his strikeout rate from a third of the time to a quarter of the time (walks remain static) and he’s still pretty good on the road. More detail to come later.
CSG: he’s having a great season, but he shouldn’t be considered a good prospect yet. He’s basically doing what Greg Halman did in High Desert a year ago, but the difference is that Halman has defensive versatility and was 3 years younger when he destroyed the league.
Dunigan probably deserves a chance to succeed or fail in Double-A sooner rather than later, but the smart money’s on fail. He’s a whole lot more interesting than he was a year ago, but he’s still a very flawed 23-year-old corner outfielder who’s yet to see Double-A. I see him as Mike Wilson 2.0.
JH,
I was thinking at one point that the only thing separating Dunigan from Wilson was that one said ‘Yes’ to a scholarship offer from Oklahoma whereas the other said ‘no.’
That said, I’m just not sure that Wilson’s capable of this, and Dunigan needs to move. I know he’s not going to keep this up, and of course Halman was much younger, but there’s ‘destroying the league’ and there’s ‘destroying the league.’
I should probably just say that this is a topic of discussion for the roundtable, so we’ll probably have a whole Dunigan-centered discussion quite soon.
Yeah, I don’t think we’re too far off, but keep in mind, Mike Wilson hit .319/.389/.555 while striking out in just over a quarter of his ABs as a 23-year-old in the Cali league, back when the Ms played in the league’s most pitcher-friendly park. Dunigan’s at .313/.380/.641 on the road. Those lines really aren’t that far off, given that Dunigan’s still playing in small sample size territory and is bound to regress across the board.
If we’re talking about possibility, I think it’s fair to say that pretty much anyone hitting .370 and slugging nearly .800 for a measurable period of time is a possible major leaguer until they prove they aren’t. In terms of probability, though, I wouldn’t bet on Dunigan turning into any kind of impact bat.
Yeah, and I was referring to Halman, not Wilson in re: ‘destroying the league.’
I guess Wilson IS capable, though he had some strange splits that year.
Overall, I think we agree that the odds are long, but they’re better odds than they were 6 months ago.
Jay
I posted this in the “What a Game” entry, but I realize now I should’ve just held off until the Minor League Wrap. Here’s the question: is there any promise in this 24 year old catcher Travis Howell? I’d hope he’s a strong defender, at least, because he had no bat during his dreadful college career (~.650 OPS). But he had a .288/.395/.411 line in his first fifty minor league games in 2008 (in Everett) and has a monstrous .308/.418/.635 line in 16 games for Clinton this year. This might be the smoke and mirrors of a guy who’s old for his league, but such if he changed something fundamental in his swing or approach (or got eye surgery or something), maybe his transformation from college to today might actually hold some promise for the future. You heard anything one way or the other?
Huh… I could have sworn I answered this over at Lookout Landing or somewhere…
I think Howell is somewhat interesting. His defensive skills are actually pretty good, he’s thrown out over 40% of the runners that try to steal against him, but he’s had a slight increase in passed balls and errors this year, not that they were a huge problem for him before. At the plate, he’ll put together some good at-bats, so he’s less in the Dunbar/Ruchti vein of defensive catchers. I saw him batting fourth a few times in Everett and I don’t think it was necessarily a bad choice. He also runs pretty well for a catcher, although his alertness on the basepaths lapses from time to time.
I’ll be interested to see him continue to develop, but it could just be a case of things clicking late for him. Ideally, Clement will get called up at some point, and then everything will be allowed to shift up, Moore to Tacoma, Scott to West Tenn, Howell to High Desert, and someone, probably Tommy Johnson, up to Clinton.
Update on Kenta Suda:
He’s in Arizona, as I thought. Today he worked his fastball, curve, and forkball and had good control to both sides of the plate in a 25-pitch simulated game. This Thursday he will go 4 innings.
If we draft Ackley, I think our system’s outfield depth would rank pretty close to the top. We already have Ichiro through 2012 and Gutierrez through 2013 if I’m not mistaken (two split MiLB-MLB contracts with Cleveland). Wladamir Balantien looks close to average right now, Michael Saunders will be ready next year and is a lefty with slightly above-average upside. Greg Halman is, well, Greg Halman, and, as Jay reported, Denny Almonte and Joe Dunegin look like intriguing power bats in lower A ball. That will make filling our middle infield a much easier prospect. As much as I’d like to see a high upside starting pitcher like Matzek or Alex White after the Bullpen Affair, I agree with Dave that Ackley is clearly the right call.