Walking The Tightrope
The Mariners 1-6 stint last week did a number on their playoff odds. With the Angels surging even before the reinforcements arrive, this was a bad time for the M’s to fall on their faces. The contend-this-year plan was basically predicated upon getting an early lead and hanging on for dear life, as it’s hard to find too many people who think this team can actually chase down the Angels from behind in a pennant race. Now that the M’s are looking up at Los Angeles in the standings, I’d imagine people are once again getting comfortable with the idea that this team is probably not headed for October baseball, and that the franchise should be valuing 2010 over 2009 at this point.
For Zduriencik and crew, this presents something of a challenge. They cannot punt 2009 this early in the season, especially as the organization tries to get fans back to Safeco this summer. The team has played well enough to still be in contention through mid-May, and baseball is a weird game – just as they ran off six straight losses last week, they could run off six straight wins this week. They aren’t in a position to tell the guys in the clubhouse or the fans “Hey, I know you’re only 1.5 games out of first place, but we’re going to make some moves to get better for the future at the expense of the present. Thanks for a good five weeks.”
On the other hand, they have two volatile assets in Erik Bedard and Jarrod Washburn. They’ve ridden some high quality innings from those two to their strong start, and this rotation would be an absolute disaster without them. They’ve both been pitched like All-Stars so far, and given the constant demand in the game for quality left-handed starting pitching, the M’s could potentially get some real value back for both of them – yes, even Washburn. His salary is less of a hindrance now that free agency is over, and he’s pitched himself back into being movable.
However, the window of opportunity to trade these two for value could literally close at any minute. Bedard’s health is a constant question, and all it would take is a twinge in his shoulder that requires a short DL stint and he’ll move from “best pitcher available at the deadline” to “I’ll just sign Ben Sheets instead, thanks”. Every pitch that Bedard throws, his trade value is at risk. He could elevate his status a bit with continued success and health through May and June, but the downside is a lot larger than the upside. You might get a little bit better package for Bedard by letting him continue to prove he’s healthy and back to ’07 form, but the incremental increase in potential value has to be weighed against the risk that the value disappears entirely.
Same deal for Washburn, though for slightly different reasons. We’re not as concerned about him tweaking his elbow, as he’s generally a durable guy. However, his strong start to the season isn’t built on entirely sustainable improvements. Yes, he’s pitching better than he has in the past (that 3.11 K/BB rate is all Washburn), but his HR/FB% is 5.8%, and he can’t keep it that low. A few extra flyballs sailing over the fence, and his ERA could jump to 4.00+ pretty quickly. It’s a lot easier to get a team to swallow his contract and send back a prospect when he has a sub-3 ERA. It’s a start-to-start thing to see if he’ll be able to keep limiting the long balls, and like Bedard, his value could take a big hit with one bad night.
There’s a fine line that the M’s front office has to walk here. They have to keep Bedard and Washburn for at least a few more weeks while the team is still within spitting distance of first place. However, they also need to be in a position to move very quickly on a deal if they determine that they won’t be winning the AL West this year. The risk of holding Bedard and Washburn too long is very real. These guys are not CC Sabathia. You can’t assume that they’re going to hold their current value for two more months.
I know Zduriencik has publicly stated that the team hasn’t even considered trading players away in July, and I believe him. I’m sure that their work the first five weeks of the season was almost entirely focused on helping this team win as many games this year as they could. However, the job of a front office is to manage the long term health of the franchise, and so now, they have to prepare for multiple scenarios. They can’t wait until July to make some phone calls and lay the foundation for deals involving the volatile assets. Beltre, you can wait on. There’s no hurry with guys like him or even Batista/Branyan/Chavez, all of whom could potentially be dealt later this summer if the team falls apart or the Angels just run away with this thing.
But Bedard and Washburn are a different animal. Keeping them comes with a potentially huge opportunity cost, and the organization has to be able to avoid overplaying their hand.
I’m not punting 2009 yet, but I’m really hoping that Zduriencik has already started having preliminary conversations with teams like the Dodgers, Mets, Blue Jays, Phillies, Cardinals, and Brewers. Depending on how the next couple of weeks go, the organization might be best served pulling the trigger on deals for both Bedard and Washburn around the beginning of June.
Um, Matt The Dragon.
You do realize the whole Type A designation is based on a last-two-years basis, right? Last two years, only. And I’m pretty sure Bedard did not hold Type A status at the end of 2008.
Bedard would need a 2008 Cliff Lee year in order to get within spitting distance of Type A. The odds of him acquiring that status are virtually nil, and certainly not worth taking the chance on. It’s a sucker bet that no GM in their right mind would take.
It makes no sense to hold onto Bedard the entire year, when even a moderately good GM can turn him into something better than a 2010 sandwich-round pick.
Bedard won’t re-up. He’ll walk when he can. The time to maximize his worth to the org is very, very close.
Ipso facto, it makes no sense to hold onto Bedard any longer than what we have to- at a certain point (and I agree it’s late May to early June), his value decreases with every start he makes for us.
Of all the guys currently wearing Mariner colors, Bedard is the most likely to be traded.
This statement is predicated on the fact that teams evaluate Major League players using results-based analysis (stats like ERA and WHIP) and not by skills-based analysis. Is this true? Would a team’s evaluation of Washburn change if his ERA was 0.50 higher and his skills did not change.
Thanks–this is a good description of the conundrum facing the M’s brain trust . There are way too many moving parts for this to be an easy set of decisions, which means they are ripe for criticism no matter what they do. The only good thing is we don’t have Bavasi, et al, pulling the trigger. The new regime may not turn out to be any better, but at least we have cautious optimism that maybe, just maybe, sensible and thoughtful decisions will get made.
Is this true?
Most of them, yes. You might not be able to trade Jarrod Washburn to the Rays, but most of the teams in baseball still have a hard time getting past ERA when evaluating a pitcher.
It’s why Jarrod Washburn got $38 million in the first place.
The new regime may not turn out to be any better…
The new regime will absolutely turn out to be better. We replaced ignorance with intelligence.
I don’t think anyone seriously has to worry too much about them squandering the future to contend this year. They are in enough of a “Rebuliding” mode to not mess around with that. But they are close enough, the division is weak enough, and maintining the interest of the fans important enough, that they should consider any reasonable upgrades. You might see them deal off a Gaby Hernandez, Cesar Jimenez, Andrew Baldwin or Robert Rohrbaugh type player or two, to pick up small upgrades. If anything valuable goes out it might be to get Yuni’s contract off their hands, and get a decent shortstop back for it. Clement is the wild card, if he has no future here, and other teams do happen to be interested, then he may be part of a deal that brings something meaningful here. Otherwise you could see the one bad contract for another type situation propsed over the weekend, Batista for Kearns. And that deal of one bad contract that ends this year for one that extends until the end of next year, has multiple pros and cons. The M’s will probably deal wisely,
even if it means they join Oakland contending for last place. Atleast they are unlikely to make the kinds of deals BB made with Cleveland in 2006, to accomplish what? To win 78 games, finish last and dump Moyer in a wavier deal after the deadline. The M’s can hold their hand right now and do as good and probably better than that, and keep their future pieces intact. They should pursue useful players, that can be had relatively cheap and let the chips fall where they may, unless Clement is a key to getting something better. I personally think that Ramon Vazquez would be a player to pursue, but I don’t know if anyone else agrees with that.
Contemplating Toronto….
Toronto’s farm system looks pretty barren. Most of the promising names are several years away. And guys like Snider and Cecil (that are already in the bigs)aren’t likely to go in a rental deal.
Not to get into full-blown rosterbation, but what organization makes the most sense to look at as a trade partner? The Dodgers? Mets?
“You do realize the whole Type A designation is based on a last-two-years basis, right? Last two years, only. And I’m pretty sure Bedard did not hold Type A status at the end of 2008”
I think you’re mistaken
Um, yes, obviously, hence the comment about his 2007 season.
You’re wrong though he was closer to the edge than I recalled.
Given that he was Type A following last season he’d be looking to come somewhere close to duplicating his 2007 season in the stats that Elias cares about: Games started (28 in ’07), wins (13), IP (182), ERA (3.16), W% (.722) and SO (221). W% is a stretch, but on those (admittedly ridiculous) terms, a full healthy season of Bedard will rate better for 2008-9 than what he posted for 2007-8.
I don’t disagree it’s a bad bet but there are a whole lot of GMs who would consider it. How many ML GMs are in their right minds is another debate though.
Well, Dave, I think there’s plenty of precedent, though I suspect that a trade might go a little later in June: the 2002 Indians traded Bartolo Colon in late June once they realized that a) their goose was cooked and b) there were sheep to be fleeced, though there’s no way you’d get the equivalent of Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips AND Grady Sizemore for Bedard, and possibly not for BOTH Washburn and Bedard in separate deals (if GMZ gets that kind of return for both of them, I think we’d all be
offering to have his babiesthrilled). And of course, even Bill Bavasi did the right thing in somewhat similar circumstances- Freddy Garcia was traded around the same time (late June), and it was the right deal, even though it turns out Jeremy Reed was really the next Todd Hollandsworth, not the next Lenny Dykstra.Are there cases of EARLIER trades where teams got blown up in early June? I am struggling to recall them- the infamous “white flag” trade for the 1997 White Sox was at the deadline in July, Harden’s last year was in early July and Blanton’s was a week later. It seems that GMs generally wait until the halfway point draws near- possibly to not subject the team and fans to a “sorry, we’re punting the next 100 games, better luck next year” sort of environment… but I might be missing something.
Matt The Dragon, coasty141-
Okay, I’m wrong about Bedard’s Type A status at end of 2008 (77.132? I had no idea). I’d forgotten how arcane Elias can be.
“A full heathy season” would really be the key words in this equation.
I still maintain Bedard’s 2008 numbers were so bad due to injury, that 2009 would have to be a quantum reversal for him to possibly get the precious designation. To do that, you roll the dice he stays healthy all year. No thanks. Trade him soon.
And I understand you don’t disagree…but it’s simply not a strategic thing to do. No one should expect Bedard will be a Type A. No disrespect intended.
After Erik’s poor 2008 season cut short by injury there is no hope for a return like that for Webb or Santana.
An accurate comparison would be the Rich Harden trade. For those who don’t remember; the A’s traded Harden and Chad Gaudin to the Cubs for Sean Gallagher, Matt Murton, Eric Patterson and minor leaguer Josh Donaldson.
Any thoughts?
Z– Stick to your plan. Don’t be distracted by that fun 3 weeks at the beginninng of the year.
Build for 2010 and beyond!!!! It starts with the June Draft: Get as close to a ML ready SP as you can with pick 2 and some college talent with the rest of the picks.
Decide if Clement is a 1b/3b. (He’s not a catcher. )If not, move him,
Then move Bedard and Washburn and perhpas Lopez.
Beltre if we must.
You’ve planned your work, now work the Plan!!!
Assuming the Nationals aren’t insane and someone doesn’t come completely out of nowhere in the next month there aren’t going to be any pitchers worth taking at #2.
I’m almost cheering for us to fall further out of contention. I’m extremely worried about Bedard and Washburn’s ability to keep this up and I’d hate to watch them fall apart and end up with nothing. Wonder what we could get. How good is Daniel Murphy? Is there any reason to think he could make it as an infielder?
I think you have to assume Clement is on the block also (not the centerpiece of any trade, of course, but a sweetener or a component in another Putz-style 3-team deal).
While that’s an argument for trading earlier, you don’t know if a contending team might have a pitcher go down with an injury in June. You can’t count on it, of course, but the demand side of the equation can change suddenly at any time.
“sort of”? Bedard lives in Navan in the offseason, which is essentially Ottawa. Toronto and Ottawa are 250 miles apart. That’s like saying everyone in Spokane lives in Seattle (sort of). That’s like saying the University of Washington is in Eugene, Oregon, sort of.
Also Soonerman, dude, “compencitory”? (Not to mention the “their” and “there” etc). I really don’t like being a grammar nazi, but we reach a point….
Beane dealt Harden on July 8 when the A’s were five games behind the Angels and 3 1/2 games out in the wild card, but he had a lot of injured regulars at that point and clearly decided that the A’s wouldn’t be able to sustain, let alone climb ahead of those clubs. I still think he didn’t get as much for Harden as he should have, but Harden did have a history of fragility… just like Bedard. (Aside: does anybody think the “injury-prone Canadian pitcher” thing is one reason why the M’s were willing to move Aumont to the bullpen?)
i have no problem dealing either guy, especially if Vargas starts hot and R-R-Hyphen-S is finally back. Wash would definitely be expendable. Bedard to Toronto would probably make the Canadian’s happy, to get a near ace, Who’s Canadian. If we can get something for Wash pull the trigger. Beltre i say hang on to. As far as I know (granted its not much) behind Adrian there isn’t much, and if he keeps hitting .220 his market may not be all that large in the offseason. If he gets it together we still got until July.
Now i know we are in the minority, but i feel like Z could easily get away with trading Wash right now. All these moves like Aardsma, Guti, Endy, Branyan, etc. have to make the fans have faith in new management. It would be a harder sell for the casuals on Bedard, but winning solves everything, and even with a couple trades, i can’t see us falling off the standings. We may be able to sustain 3-5 games back come June and July, and people would still probably come, we still have everyone’s favorite in Jr. and Ichiro.
First thing to do this month or by early next month is to unload Miguel Batista to the Nationals. An NL team (Atlanta) might pick up Silva, but I doubt anybody’d take his moolah. Batista or Washburn might also be dangled over the aquarium at Tropicana field…it’s possible the Rays might bite for either. If I were Z, I’d talk to those teams. I am just not quite sure what to ask for…
Actually, (though I don’t advocate trading Beltre) replacing Beltre with Tui would be a smaller drop off than Bedard to, ah, who? Olson maybe? Silva? Batista? Or, move Lopez to 3B and go looking for that lefty 2B Dave was talking about a while back. 3B seems to be deeper than SP (though that’s in relative terms only).
The Rays are too smart to give up anything for Washburn.
No one is taking Silva. No one. It isn’t happening. He’s bad. We’re stuck with him.
The Rays are one of the smartest (if not the smartest) franchises in baseball. They’re way ahead of most teams in terms of pitching analysis and they have one of the best rotations in the league and one of the premier prospects in the game in Durham. Why on earth would they want Batista or Washburn?
Assuming the Nationals aren’t insane and someone doesn’t come completely out of nowhere in the next month there aren’t going to be any pitchers worth taking at #2.
Matzek/Scheppers/White/Miller/Purke to name a few. There aren’t a lot of picks after Strasburg that you really would love at the 10th pick but not the 2nd it’s a pretty weak class at the 2nd pick.
It’s a good idea to update your scouting report at least twice a decade to avoid mistakes like this. I know it’s hard not to think of the Rays as hopeless g’dawfuls (and even harder not to think of them as the D-Rays) but Jeff Niemann is the only guy in their rotation that Washburn would be an improvement over this year, and I suspect the Rays would rather have Niemann for the future.
If Phil Hughes pitches like he did in his last outing, the Yankees might be worth talking to. Steinbrenner’s gotta make it work this year some how and right now (though A-Rod was out and Teix in a major slump) he’s not looking so good.
Hughes? Austin Jackson? You never know, it is the Yankees after all.
The Rays might be a good trade partner by mid-season if Balfour, Percival and Wheeler are still pitching as poorly as they have been. But that’s for RP, definitely not SP. Hopefully Aardsma, Kelley and those guys will still be pitching well by then.
Oooh! Trade speculation!
Sometimes it’s worth waiting into July to see how the prospects coming back the other way are responding. The other team knows what it’s getting in Bedard, Washburn, et. al. In contrast, there’s more crystal-ball-watching involved in evaluating a Brett Wallace (St.L), Mat Gamel (Mil), or Brett Cecil (Tor).
And yeah, that’s the caliber of player that would headline a Bedard package. I have a hard time thinking we’re going to get five-star prospects back for a few months of Bedard or Washburn. (Travis Snider? Insane.) The only guy who would make a trade like that is… Well, I just get depressed when I think of Bill Bavasi.
Is it possible that this roster was built to showcase the aging starting rotation who still have some trade value? Improving the defense makes those pitchers look better. It would make sense to me that if there were a long term plan to restock the farm system, managment would want to maximize trade value for guys who won’t be around to contribute in 3 years anyway. If the plan was to seriously contend this year, seems they would have brought in at least one big bat.
The plan for this season has always been pretty clear. Try to contend in a weak division as best you can while building for the future and not hamstringing yourself with bad deals.
We aren’t three years away from contention.
And yeah, that’s the caliber of player that would headline a Bedard package.
No, it’s not.
There are still some GM’s like Bavasi out there. Ed Wade for sure and, to a lesser extent, Ned Colletti, Dave Dombrowski, and Brian Sabean. Wade has already been fleeced pretty badly, but the other guys still have some interesting prospects. Dayton Moore made some questionable trades/free agent signings this past offseason revealing that he may not properly value his players. They could be robbed.
Who? The free agent “big bats” were all defensive liabilities or out-of-our-price-range guys like Teixeira (or in Ibanez’ case, both). I’m sure the M’s FO looked at trades to acquire a “big bat” but those guys don’t come any cheaper in players than they do in dollars on the FA market. Of the options available, maybe the best was to pick up a left-handed bat and stick him at DH where he’ll do no harm. If he happens to be a former local hero, now an aging superstar with his best years behind him, at least he’ll sell some jerseys and pull in a few nostalgic fans… and you never know, you might get one more year of pop out of him.
Well, thank you for not giving up yet. I agree we need to be concerned about this skid, but their stronger-than-expected first month performance is precicely why we are already becoming alarmed by the past week.
I agree that the management should think about the long term health of the club, but I do think we should always be playing this year’s baseball and this night’s baseball, and try to keep next year where it belongs.
Basically, I am concerned about your interest in trading away two players who are each performing above what we have come to expect from them simply because we don’t think it will last. Is there any other reason to trade them besides our fear that they will stink in August/September (and if need be, October)?
Wouldn’t it be better to trade quality prospects from the minors who will be ready to play later this year or next year but ones whom we do not have a need for just yet? My concern is that there are no secrets in Baseball. Everything you have cited here is well known among the scouts around the country. Do you think these players stock is really that much higher now than it was two months ago or will be two months from now? We would just end up trading a lemon for another lemon and what does that gain us for long term growth potential?