The 2010 Rookies
As we look towards 2010, we can be fairly sure that the roster is going to look significantly different than it does today. Bedard, Beltre, Washburn, Branyan, Griffey, Sweeney, Chavez, and Batista are all free agents at the end of the year, and we’re pretty sure that the team won’t be bringing back both of Lopez/Betancourt as their middle infield. It’s quite feasible that both could go away. Johjima’s future in Seattle is in question as well.
In all, we’re looking at around ten players being replaced for next year’s team. That’s a lot of turnover, and those open positions create opportunities for guys in the organization to step up and grab a spot on the team. While the M’s farm system is short on upper level pitching, there are five guys in Triple-A who could each make a pretty good case for a spot on next year’s team: Jeff Clement, Mike Carp, Michael Saunders, Adam Moore, and Matt Tuiasosopo.
However, there’s basically no chance that the team goes with five rookies in the line-up at the same time next year. They aren’t doing the tear-down style of rebuild, and the goal will certainly be to contend for the division title next year. Despite all five having pretty decent cases for being major league ready, Wak isn’t going to want to break in five rookies while trying to win the AL West. I would suspect that the team will probably limit themselves to two or three rookies, at most, in the line-up next year.
However, you can make a pretty good case that none of these guys should spend 2010 in Triple-A.
Clement obviously has nothing left to prove in the PCL – another trip through Tacoma won’t do him any good, and it’s hard to see the M’s actually sending him back there again.
Carp has cooled off after a monstrous April, but he’s still showing both power and patience, as a left-handed first baseman, he fits one of the things the team will need next year. His bat isn’t as good as Clement’s, but he’s ahead of him defensively as a 1B, and we know that Wak highly values defense.
Saunders has shown significant improvement in improving his contact, which was the big knock on him coming into the season. As a left-handed hitting outfielder with good athleticism and gap power, he’s a perfect fit for LF in Safeco.
Moore’s move up to the PCL hasn’t slowed him down at all, as his numbers in Triple-A are basically a dead ringer for his numbers in Double-A. While he doesn’t have the defensive reputation of Rob Johnson, his offense is significantly better, as he actually has a pretty solid approach at the plate.
Finally, there’s Tui, who is on the DL with elbow problems but opened a lot of eyes with a strong spring training. His defense at third is never going to be Beltre level, but given his improvement over the last year and the way that he impressed Wak, he’d seemingly have an inside edge on the open third base position for next year.
From a micro level, there’s a pretty decent case to be made for all five of these guys grabbing jobs next year. However, there’s just no way the M’s go into the year with Tui at third, Saunders in left, Carp at first, Clement at DH, and Moore behind the plate. The club will consider those guys for jobs on an individual basis, but they’re not handing all of those jobs over to the Triple-A brigade next year.
So, if you don’t want to give them major league jobs at the same time, but you also don’t want to make them languish in Tacoma for no reason, there’s just one solution – trades. As the July 31st deadline approaches, the M’s will certainly be more focused on making deals for their free agents to be, but don’t rule out the chance that Zduriencik takes advantage of the trading season to shift some parts around.
While I agree that breaking in 5 rookies at once would be something the M’s don’t do, isn’t there a chance they get called up this summer if parts get traded away (like Branyan, for example)? That way all 5 could be in the bigs next year without all of them having to break in at the same time?
There’s a case to be made as well for bringing up a core of guys together, like the Giants are doing. But if the goal is the playoffs next year, having 5 rookies at once would not be doable I suppose.
That’s too bad, as I kinda wish they would. Yeah, there’s a chance of Epic Fail, but it’d be fun to watch either way.
But I hope your second point is correct, and the team tries to work these guys in over the latter half of the season. That’d be terrific. Who’s closest to ML-ready, that could handle a late-season job?
It sounds like Clement, but his roster spots are taken by Griffey and Branyan.
I don’t think they’d mind Tui repeating AAA next year, if only because in the best case scenario, he’ll only play 60 games or so at 3B.
He hasn’t played there at all so far, and now he’s got to recover from elbow surgery. To me, his strong spring may mean they’re *less* likely to trade him. His value’s pretty low at the moment anyway.
Clement is the key to this – either he’s up, or he’s out of the org. If he’s traded, you’re looking at Carp (maybe in a part-time role), Saunders (platoon w/Wlad?), and Moore (part time). I think that’d be fine; they make the case that they’re developing young players without simply handing all of them starting jobs. Platooning might also help the M’s put them in a position to succeed early on, too.
Of course they’ll try, but isn’t the goal to win the AL West in 2010 unrealistic? I think they should eye 2011 as the year to reign.
Why do people seem to like the idea of watching a bad team for one or more seasons so much? Is it some sort of martyrdom complex?
There’s no reason that a team with the revenue streams that the Mariners have can’t rebuild with young players AND stay competitive in a weak division at the same time.
It can’t happen this year because too many of the previous administration’s mistakes are still in the way, but that problem will largely be resolved after this season.
Couple of quick observations/questions:
– How quick would Ackley be ready for the show? I know these are hard to pin down, but what would his ETA be?
– It’s crazy to think that in 2 years we could have a Tui/Jason Donald (I really want to get him back for Bedard)/ Ackley(?) or Cedeno/ Carp infield with Moore catching. Though honestly I like the offensive punch that team would pack. Defensively I just don’t know enough.
So many new faces in the next couple years. Should be exciting.
Realistically, how many of those free agents could be back? Would a guy like Branyan, whom Z has shown some loyalty to and given a shot to play everyday, consider staying on even if it was a bench position?
I would think that trying to upgrade at shortstop would be a priority, since it seems that it is the position with the greatest scarcity (especially in the Mariners system). Is Gordon Beckham definitely out of the question? Ken Williams has traded early and boldly in the past. Some combination of Bedard, Clement, and … Morrow?
How would this be resolved. He seems rather untradeable with two years remaining after this one, correct?
Retire and go back and play in Japan?
Totally off subject, but the Indians just DFA’ed David Delluci, should we grabe him?
No.
For a few moments, I was quite puzzled why Dave was writing about the 2010 Rockies. Apparently I need more coffee.
Oh how I hope this comes to pass. From all that promise of a few years ago, our middle infield has turned into an offensive and defensive black hole.
for this year, any chance of Carp learning LF?
1B, DH, CF, and RF are closed for 2009 more or less pending a trade, so the obvious spot for any callups is LF… Mike Saunders is the obvious one from Tacoma, but…
I know Tacoma has been playing LaHair out in LF, but I think Carp has the future with the team and should be trying out new positions. You could still use Endy as a late inning defensive replacement for him.
And assuming Griffey Jr won’t be back, I think Clement ‘should’ get the DH spot next year.
I’m less sold on Tui then on the others…
Retire and go back and play in Japan?
Yeah, aka the Kaz Suzuki scenario.
As for 1B, one would think that the 23 year old who’s playing the position well might get a nod over a 25 year old who has to have their position changed, even if they are a somewhat better bat.
I think Clement will be traded.
EC: Remember that we’re going to have holes at 1B and DH this offseason, and filling those holes with young, lefthanded bats is a good idea.
(Nitpick: Kaz Sasaki, not Suzuki.)
Oh, and if I had to pick, it would likely be Saunders/Moore/Carp. Clement has some injury history and a position switch working against him, and I’m not convinced Tui is going to be as good a fit as Carp with Safeco working against him. He’s kind of another RHB in the Beltre/Lopez model who might struggle a bit.
EC: Remember that we’re going to have holes at 1B and DH this offseason, and filling those holes with young, lefthanded bats is a good idea.
Sure, but Dave’s precept is “we’re not going to put all 5 rookies into the lineup”. A DH who can hit is one of the easiest things to find on the FA market, unless you’re Bill “Carl Everett and Jose Vidro” Bavasi. Is Clement very clearly the best of those 5 players?
Since LH hitting third baseman are an extremely rare breed, almost any 3B will struggle at Safeco compared to how he would fare in Fenway or US Cellular. I would like to see the M’s have more lefty bats, but it is fairly unlikely that they will find one to play 3B.
If Beltre and/or Branyan were to be traded, I would assume that Tui and/or Carp would be called up as their replacement(s). I don’t see Moore or Saunders getting called up for any significant amount of time. Clement is the wild card in all of this. I would still like to see him get a shot with the M’s, but it seems like a scenario where that happens is becoming less and less likely.
Since LH hitting third baseman are an extremely rare breed, almost any 3B will struggle at Safeco compared to how he would fare in Fenway or US Cellular. I would like to see the M’s have more lefty bats, but it is fairly unlikely that they will find one to play 3B.
To be honest, my preferred answer is “fix Safeco so it’s not such a ridiculously stupid park for RHB”, but barring that, it’s boils down to scouting and player evaluation at a pretty fine level, injuries and dumb luck. I don’t think there’s a HUGE difference between any of these guys- they are all in the 2-3 WAR range as players and any of them could go on to have the best career of the entire group, so any answer could turn out to be the right one.
I don’t know that we can be sure Tui is ready for the majors. He will probably get a later-mid/late-season call-up, but also, we should hope for or expect two things:
1) Some of the players that we trade for Beltre, Branyan, Washburn, Yuni (please God), Lopez, Bedard, etc might actually be pretty good players, and be ready for 2010.
2) There is always a few Russel Branyan quality free agents out there, and this crew has shown that they have the ability to find them. Maybe it was a blind squirrel… But I hope not.
Also, with the logjam that we have with hitters in AAA that deserve a shot, does Mike Sweeney’s personality really warrant him on the roster?
Just FYI: TNT’s McGrath’s article on the (proposed) blowing up of the team
Mike Sweeney’s body warrants him a spot on the DL.
I completely agree…
Being on the DL doesn’t preclude you from being around the team.
Wow, just looked at the team’s stats.
Ichiro is 3rd on this team with 4 home runs. He has gotten on base 69 times, and only scored 16 runs. 4 of them he scored on his own home run.
So, of the 65 times he has gotten on base, he’s only scored 12 times. He’s probably gotten more exercise running in from second base after the third out than anyone in the league.
Yuni has more walks per at bat than Kenji.
And Jose Lopez somehow has managed to get 21 RBIs.
Wow, again, we’ve got the worst OBP in the majors, and the 3rd worst OPS. How the hell did we in 22 games?!?
Want to know how bad the team really is offensively? Willie Boom-Boom is slugging higher that all but two Mariners this year. Really.
Reading the McGrath column, I can’t really disagree with the guys he things should be available (though maybe I’m more inclinded to hang onto Branyan, but then I’m a Branyan Fanyan) but I’m sure baffled by McGrath’s fixation on outfield prospects.
I mean, Safeco has a big outfield, but there’s still only room for three guys to play out there at a time.
And you’d think if you were clearing away a couple of starters and your entire infield, you might get, say, some infielders as part of the package. It would seem prudent.
Unless Clement is the 2nd coming of Edgar Martinez at DH (only left handed) and Tui turns into a guy over at third base that could hit for a lot of power with a decent OBP, probably a good idea to shop them both around.
I could see a Mariner lineup next year with Carp hitting 6th, Moore hitting 7th and Saunders hitting 8th with Gutz and Ichiro hitting #9 and #1 since hitters 6-8 would be mostly patient and promising young hitters that are trying to SETTLE in the major leagues.
It doesn’t seem like there’s any room though for Tui and Clement on this roster (at least for next year).
This team is likely going to need to do its best to work towards getting legitimate, long-term solutions at 3B, SS, 2B, and DH (if Branyan is to be traded or leave) beginning this year in the draft and at the trade deadline.
This team is likely going to need to do its best to work towards getting legitimate, long-term solutions at 3B, SS, 2B, and DH
I’ll bring up again the idea that you don’t need a full time DH, and certainly not a long-term solution to a full-time DH. It’s perfectly functional to rotate several guys through the spot. I haven’t updated my data lately, but a couple of years ago I checked an less than half the AL playoff teams for the the first few years of the decade had one guy who started more than half the games at DH.
In fact, unless you were signing another Edgar, I’d be pretty unhappy at a long-term deal for a guy who could only DH.
Thank you TomTuttle and JMHawkins.
Edgar was a special case, and as much as I miss him sentimentally, I don’t miss taking up one entire roster spot on a guy who gets 4-5 ABs a game and that’s it.
Jeff Clement cannot compete defensively against the other catchers in this organization. He’s played a whopping couple games at 1B, and spent much of his time in the minors anticipating knee surgery, recovering from it, or battling recurrent knee issues. And so, he is a DH. Period. Is he a DH in the same league as Edgar? Edgar was one of the best pure hitters in the game. Clement is one of the best hitters in AAA. Perhaps he could become one of the best hitters in the majors, but is it worth the decrease in roster flexibility to find out? I don’t think so.
Don’t get me wrong, it’s been a pleasure to watch him hit at AAA, and I wish him success. But for me, I’d much rather watch Saunders hit (for power, and for bunt singles with equal success) AND field. And watch Carp hit for power AND make some sweet plays at 1B (not Olerud sweet, but very nice). They are more complete players.