Game 41, Angels at Mariners
Santana v. Chris Jakubauskas.
Check this order out:
RF-L Ichiro!
3B-R Beltre
DH-L Griffey
LF-R Balentien
1B-L Branyan
C-R Johjima
2B-R Lopez
SS-R Betancourt
CF-R Gutierrez
Beltre’s hitting 0/0/0 and they’re moving him… up? He’s been 4th or 5th in the order all season. I have to hope they’re thinking batting him behind Ichiro will encourage him to be more selective and take pitches. But wow, that’s a gutsy move.
Dave On Radio Times Two
I’ve got two radio interviews today, starting off with Brock and Salk at 11:25. Then, at 4:20, I’ll be on with Sean Widmer. You can listen to both through their linked websites.
Speaking of Mike Salk, I have a feeling we’ll be talking about a piece he wrote on Brandon Morrow’s development. He compared how the M’s handled Morrow to how the Red Sox handled Daniel Bard, who is actually a very good comparison for Morrow, and how the Dodgers handled Clayton Kershaw. He also interviewed Morrow yesterday, and delved into the starter/reliever issue. Both his piece and the interview are worth checking out.
I Don’t Get It
Last week, Felix threw 22 change-ups against the Texas Rangers, and tossed seven shutout innings against an offense with a bunch of good left-handed hitters. His change was the difference maker in that game, and allowed him to shut down quality LH bats.
So, last night, fresh off the reminder of how good his change up can be, Felix threw it twice. The entire night, he threw two change-ups – the first one induced a ground out from Bobby Abreu in the third inning, and he missed out of the strike zone with the second one against Chone Figgins in the sixth. The rest of the night, it was mostly fastballs, some sliders, and a curve ball here or there.
Remember the conversation we had with Dave Allen the other day? The two seam fastball and the slider are the two pitches that have the largest platoon split. They work great against same handed hitters, and they’re meatballs against opposite handed hitters. So, facing a line-up where four of the first five hitters are lefties, Felix decided to go after them with his fastball and slider.
Predictably, it didn’t work. The left-handed hitters against Felix did the following:
1st inning: Single, walk, single, strikeout, groundout.
2nd inning: Single, strikeout
3rd inning: Groundout, double
4th inning: Walk, popout
5th inning: Single, single, walk, groundout
6th inning: Popout, single, double
That’s six singles, two doubles, three walks, two strikeouts, three groundouts, and two popouts. That’s a .533/.611/.555 line that lefties put up against him last night. Yea, the defense behind him was lousy, but this was the dumbest game plan we’ve seen in a long time. 16 straight fastballs to start the game (all against LH hitters), 71% fastballs against LH batters on the night, and two change-ups in the very next start after that pitch helped him shut down the Rangers in Texas? There’s nothing else to call that besides stupid.
The Mariners have a lot of problems. They don’t need their 23-year-old with a hall of fame arm to be one as well. Pitch smarter, Felix.
Game 40, Angels at Mariners
Felix Dayyyy!!!! Palmer v Felix. Hopefully Felix read Dave’s article. Or someone read it and told him about it. Or read it and told one of the coaches.
7:10.
M’s Sign Brad Nelson
Over the last year or so, I lobbied for the M’s to acquire Brad Nelson. Several times, in fact.
Well, today, the M’s signed Nelson to a minor league contract. He was DFA’d by the Brewers after starting the season 0-21 with 9 strikeouts – the Brewers wanted to give his roster spot to top prospect Mat Gamel, and Nelson didn’t have much of a future in Milwaukee with Prince Fielder around. He cleared waivers, declined his assignment to Triple-A and became a free agent. He reunites with Jack Zduriencik, the guy who originally drafted him, and has latched on to a team that could use some left-handed power.
The only problem is where on earth is he going to play. Tacoma currently has Clement, Carp, Shelton, and LaHair on the roster – Shelton is playing third base and LaHair is playing the outfield in order to get everyone in the line-up. I guess they could stick Nelson out in the outfield as well, with Saunders sliding over to center field, but that’s not really an ideal solution. There’s no easy way to find playing time for five 1B/DH types in Triple-A at the same time.
Simultaneously, Russell Branyan is making the M’s look like geniuses for giving him a full time job, so unless he’s traded before the deadline, first base isn’t really an open position on the team. Yea, there might be some DH at-bats available if Junior doesn’t find his power stroke again soon, but Clement’s probably first in line for those.
I like Brad Nelson, and I think he’s still got a shot at being a pretty useful major league player. I’m just not sure that the M’s were the best fit for him.
Branyan boast
I believe the last time a Mariner had 10 home runs by mid-May was Sexson’s 2005 when he got to ten on May 13th.
Game 39, Angels at Mariners
I’m just glad the Red Sox are gone. Anyway! It’s Lackey vs. New Improved Wasburn, who already faced the Angels twice and didn’t look all that new or improved, frankly.
Lackey… well, this will be Lackey’s first real start because of that getting-tossed thing. That’s kind of a weird situation for the team, right? All the pitchers are on set day-by-day routines, and suddenly there’s a starter worth putting out there a day off his schedule. Meanwhile, getting tossed so early hoses your bullpen plans… I’m hoping it all ends up working out for the M’s, obviously.
And if he plunks Ichiro! on two pitches, all rules of civilized conduct are nullified.
On the Wilson not rumor rumor
Sure, it’s titled “Improving Mariners looking to trade Yuniesky Betancourt to the Pirates for Jack Wilson?” but it’s a lot like when one of those tech rumor sites runs “Google in talks to buy Alaska Airlines?”
Or, to quote the article:
Will this deal happen? Don’t know. But it makes sense on many levels and I’m told it’s been discussed.
Been discussed as “internal discussions about trading Yuni” “internal discussions about trading Yuni for Wilson” “preliminary discussions about what it would take to get Wilson” “heated discussions about what else would need to be included in a Yuni-Wilson trade”?
Unclear. And until that’s clear, it’s not fair to say this is a trade rumor. As he says, it’s Baker’s analysis of why the deal would make sense plus that little “discussions” teaser.
If/when this becomes more substantive, we’ll opine in depth, I promise.
The Problem With The Right-Handed Line-Up
As you’ve heard me talk about incessantly since the season started, the Mariners line-up is too right-handed. With Wladimir Balentien replacing Endy Chavez as the regular left fielder, the M’s normal line-up now includes six right handed bats (Beltre, Lopez, Betancourt, Johjima/Johnson, Gutierrez, and Balentien) and three left-handed bats (Ichiro, Griffey, and Branyan). Exacerbating the problem is that the six RH bats are very similar types of hitters. Gutierrez is the only one who won’t actively get himself out chasing pitches out of the strike zone, and all of them prefer to pull the ball when hitting for power. There are no Edgar Martinez’s in that group – it’s a bunch of aggressive bats who can hit something straight but struggle with pitches that move.
Not surprisingly, the M’s offense goes to sleep pretty much any time the opposing team throws a right-handed starter. The quality level hasn’t mattered – whether it was Jered Weaver, Josh Beckett, Scott Feldman, Bartolo Colon, Vicente Padilla, Shane Loux, Trevor Cahill, Nick Blackburn.. they all look like aces against the M’s.
But why?
To answer that question, I’ve turned to Dave Allen, one of the newest and best Pitch F/x analysts out there today. He’s doing yeoman’s work over at The Baseball Analysts, helping take Pitch F/x analysis to another level. I asked Dave to use the Pitch F/x data to help reveal some of the issues that the M’s line-up currently has against RHPs. We also get into the pitching of Felix and Shawn Kelley. The transcript of our conversation is below.
Minor League Wrap (5/11-17/09)
No intro this week… I was up a bit late working on this, and probably won’t be in to answer questions until late either. This is perhaps a good thing, as you miss any possible references I could make to “statement games”.
To the jump!
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