Welcome To Seattle, Dustin
Now please sign.
For those of you wondering what to make of Ackley, the best comparison is probably early career Darin Erstad. Like with Erstad, he’s a small-ish left-handed hitter with great contact skills, plus speed, a good approach at the plate, power that’s more suited to the gaps than driving the ball over the wall, and the ability to play first base or the outfield. The bat is likely to be good rather than great, though Ackley could have a season or two similar to Erstad’s 2000 season, where his .355/.409/.541 line made him a legitimate MVP candidate.
The questions about Ackley really revolve around his defense. He has the athleticism and speed to cover center field, but Tommy John surgery has kept him at first base for most of the year, so he doesn’t have a ton of experience in the outfield. Erstad, interestingly, was one of the best defensive outfielders of his generation despite moving back and forth between 1B and CF/LF, so just because Ackley hasn’t played there doesn’t mean he won’t be able to excel. If he turns into a plus plus defender, he’s a legitimate franchise player. If the arm doesn’t come back and he ends up as just a guy with good range and a weak arm, he’ll be more of a good player than a great one.
That said, the M’s should be extremely excited to have Ackley in the system. He’s easily the organization’s number one prospect as soon as he signs, and he could be in the M’s starting line-up to begin the 2011 season. As a quality left-handed bat with the ability to offer value on offense and defense, he’s a great building block for the future. He might not have Strasburg’s upside, but there’s a pretty decent chance that he’s going to be the best player drafted today.
The M’s needed a guy like this, and while he’s not as sexy as Strasburg, we should be thrilled that the team had the opportunity to add Dustin Ackley to the organization. He’s probably going to be a USSM favorite for a long time.
I saw Darin Erstad a lot in AAA when Vancouver still had a legit minor-league team. The M’s could certainly do worse than a young Darin Erstad in Dustin Ackley.
Here’s hoping he makes it.
The real question is, will he ever become a Chris Snelling-esque USSM favourite?
Once he is signed I would still like to see how he handles 2B… If he is just average defensively it would be great with his lefthanded plus bat.
It seems that CF may not be the best fit for him, coming back from TJ… and 2B would put less stress on his arm…
Also, if his arm is CF ready I would think that they would have played him in CF more in college to take advantage of his speed…
IF he is able to play solid 2nd I see way more value with him there than in a corner OF spot…
What is the track record of outfielders coming back from TJ surgery?
I wonder what it is going to take to get him signed?
Even better than Saunders?
I feel that he is more of a Chase Utley rather than Erstad. Either way, I am stoked.
Graham over at Lookout Landing said he’s heard projections that Ackley could also have a career path along the lines of John Olerud or Todd Helton. Do you think either of those are possible, Dave?
my only question about Ackley is where he will play. Is Saunders are future LF or just a one year solution? I’m been excited for him and I’m unfamiliar with his potential. Hope you guys can clear that up for me
Don’t get me wrong, I would have loved to have seen Strasburg in Seattle. But Ackley is a great fit with the Mariners, and I love the Erstad comparison!
I, too, wonder what it will take to sign this guy, but my gut tells me this is one player they can’t/won’t let get away.
I guess Z knows we need middle infielder, any quick knowledge on Franklin?
What pick would the Mariners get if they failed to sign Mr. Ackley? Any chance they could snag Bryce Harper next year?
BP’s writeup on Franklin has him at a utility-infielder ceiling … not exactly flattering.
Hoping for the Erstad potential.
But doesn’t he also compare to Jeremy Reed projections at the same point?
CF is more valuable than 2B. CF is more valuable than 2B. CF is more valuable than 2B. Please keep this in mind when suggesting moving him.
CF is more valuable than 2B.
Well, if pitchers can come back from it, then I imagine outfielders might have an outside shot at recovering from it too. But that’s just a guess.
Wouldn’t Franklin Gutierrez hopefully be the center fielder for many more years? So Ackley to left?
What is best case?
I would have hoped that this year would have taught people that you can have more than one center fielder in the same outfield.
JMhawkins
Thank you for your patronizing response (x3)…
I am not saying 2B is the only option but it might not hurt to be open minded and take a look and see if he fits there…
I realize that(CF>2B) in a vacuum… but in seattle’s case we currently have an excellent CF option and I would say 2B is an obvious hole… Putting him at a corner outfield spot is not better than putting him at 2B… Plus outfield depth is a strength of our farm system
It wouldn’t be the first time a team with a talented prospect finds a way to make a plus bat fit into the existing lineup…
But as it stands now he needs to sign and we have about a year and half to solve our 2B problem… but its not that far off… and 2B could be a really great place for him…
And I can think of an outfielder coming back from TJ surgery (Xavier Nady) who reinjured his shoulder… although I believe it was swinging… which is why I wonder what the track record is for TJ surgery OF’s…
“I would have hoped that this year would have taught people that you can have more than one center fielder in the same outfield.”
Understanding that, just was curious your thought ideal position for Ackley. Plus the Ichiro, Cameron, Winn outfield educated as well.
Harper is in the 2011 class (though it’s possible he’ll go for his GED this summer and enroll in a JC in the fall to make himself eligible for ’10). The kid is an amazing hitter but I for one certainly hope the M’s do so well in 2010 that they’re way out of the running for the top pick in the 2011 draft; as for 2010, the Nationals seem to have the #1 pick locked up for the foreseeable future.
Assuming they didn’t already have a good defensive CF. I recall reading an interview with him where he said he stayed at 1B to “help the team” (rather than learning a position on the fly while contending).
I’m not worried about having a glut of talented LH outfielders. That’s a good problem to have, and gluts have a way of turning into droughts before you know it.
“I would have hoped that this year would have taught people that you can have more than one center fielder in the same outfield.â€
Not saying he should not play CF… I’m saying he can play a little of both… If he can hold up at 2B it might be a good thing…
It sure would be nice to have another premium defense place to put him when he is ready if Franklin G. is still running everything in sight down… especially if it fills a huge weakness at 2B
See Clint Nageotte, Travis Blackley, Joel Pineiro, and company…
Very happy with Ackley, and I can’t wait till we see him patrolling the outfield in Safeco. Patient lefty hitters who make good contact are valuable in any organization, especially if they have plus defensive capabilities and their home stadium has a short right field porch….