Unless I’m mistaken, this needs to take into account that Branyan’s offensive production is further above average for a third baseman than it is for a first baseman,

Nope. Branyan’s still in the lineup regardless and his bat doesn’t get better or worse if he moves to 3B. The offensive difference is trading Carp’s bat for Woodwards. Woodward is

Also I think 15 runs below average with the glove at third is a smidge pessimistic for Branyan, he has a career UZR/150 at third base of -6.9, and his numbers don’t have a clear downward trend as he’s gotten older.

Hmmm, you’re right. I mis-read his 2007 UZR numbers.

I realize Cameron was incredible at making plays that others seemed not able to make and I was one of those who hated the Mariners for letting him go but Gutierrez so often surprises me with how easy he makes what looked like a tough play become a routine out. Offensively there seems to be something special in his swing as when he meets the ball for homeruns they match the Rodriguez or in my day Jim Rice type line drive propulsion!

I would assume if Beltre and Betancourt are both out that it would be Woodward and Cedeno.

Woodward at 3B: -10 runs at the plate, + 10 runs Glove = even overall

Carp: +5 runs at the plate
Branyan: -15 runs with glove at 3B
= -10 runs overall (assume Carp/Branyan wash defensively at 1B).

Better off with Woodward playing instead of Carp.

Unless I’m mistaken, this needs to take into account that Branyan’s offensive production is further above average for a third baseman than it is for a first baseman, though how many runs that is exactly I don’t know. In general the numbers here seem approximate enough that it’s hard for them to really be the last word in the matter. For example +5 runs offensively at first seems like a lot to ask of Carp, and in general I’d be a little wary of calling a AAAA utility guy a league average third baseman. Also I think 15 runs below average with the glove at third is a smidge pessimistic for Branyan, he has a career UZR/150 at third base of -6.9, and his numbers don’t have a clear downward trend as he’s gotten older. Of course that’s based on a fairly small sample size of 247 games (30 of which he didn’t start), but I think a somewhat conservative guess for him would still be 10 runs below.

Playoffs are pretty much a crap shoot. Even the worst team in baseball, if they were let into the playoffs, has a fighting chance to win the world series. Granted, the odds aren’t in their favor in that scenario, but they do have a shot. A slightly above .500 team going against say a 25 game over .500 team isn’t that far off a 50/50 split on who will win statistically in a short series. And of course given Felix and Bedard potentially pitching most of the games, at least the M’s would probably be able to keep it close either way.

I see so many comparisons to Mike Cameron when I watch Gutierrez but think while he might be a tad better defensively, has yet to realize how good he could be offensively.

Cameron in his prime was about as good as it gets defensively in center field. Literally, he was one of the best of all time. Guti might be as good as Cammy, but he isn’t better.

Even if we should happen to somehow prevail in the weak AL West, we don’t have the talent to go anywhere in the playoffs…

Assume the M’s go 8-8 over this road trip and pass the litmus test Dave set out. That means they played .500 ball over 16 games against playoff-caliber opponents. The ALDS+ALCS is a max of 12 games. A team that can play .500 ball for 16 games against playoff-calber opponents can make it to the world series.

If the M’s go 8-8 on this road trip, they’ve proven they do indeed have the talent to go somewhere in the playoffs.

Can they go 8-8? Well, you outlined a whole bunch of obstacles they have to winning against good teams. On the optimistic side, well, there’s:

Felix: has the potential to dominate a game against any lineup. Will he achieve it?

Bedard: if healthy, one of the best lefties in the league.

Branyan: Apparently a man on a mission to disprove Regression to the Mean. Is this the Real Russel Branyan?

Gutierrez: Right now he’s Mike Cameron Light, but shows some potential to be Mike Cameron, Standard Issue (Prime of Career).

Ichiro!: always a reason to be optimistic about Ichiro.

Still, they could easily go 4-12 and prove they are not really contenders this year. So, I think Dave posed the right test. This road trip, when they’re a bit banged up and fielding several offensive black holes, is what will decide if they’re contending or rebuilding.

Even if we should happen to somehow prevail in the weak AL West, we don’t have the talent to go anywhere in the playoffs

This just isn’t true, though I concur with not “going for it”. Playoffs are a crapshoot because of the short series. And if the M’s stay healthy enough to make the playoffs, they have a good playoff team with King Felix and Bedard heading up the rotation plus a shortened bullpen.