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	<title>Comments on: The Bedard/Washburn Myth</title>
	<atom:link href="http://ussmariner.com/2009/06/30/the-bedardwashburn-myth/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://ussmariner.com/2009/06/30/the-bedardwashburn-myth/</link>
	<description>Seattle Mariners and general baseball discussion with David Cameron and Derek Zumsteg</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Sat, 21 Nov 2009 08:17:03 -0800</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>By: Puffy</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2009/06/30/the-bedardwashburn-myth/comment-page-2/#comment-336425</link>
		<dc:creator>Puffy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Jul 2009 01:49:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=8594#comment-336425</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;em&gt;Good luck finding a buyer who will give up a “big league shortstop”&lt;/em&gt;
&lt;em&gt;Amazingly enough, they have these things called “three way trades”, where team A needs something, team B needs something else, and team C acts as an intermediary to help team A and team B pull off a trade that works for everyone.&lt;/em&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Yes, but I think the point is that there is a very real scarcity of &quot;big league shortstops&quot; in baseball this year.  I imagine plenty of suitors seeking infield help and relatively few sellers.  Do the Mariners really want to compete in the deadline trade market for one of a very few potentially available SS (a Jack Wilson or Felipe Lopez or...)?  Is that the best way to expend the team&#039;s resources?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p><em>Good luck finding a buyer who will give up a “big league shortstop”</em><br />
<em>Amazingly enough, they have these things called “three way trades”, where team A needs something, team B needs something else, and team C acts as an intermediary to help team A and team B pull off a trade that works for everyone.</em>
</p></blockquote>
<p>Yes, but I think the point is that there is a very real scarcity of &#8220;big league shortstops&#8221; in baseball this year.  I imagine plenty of suitors seeking infield help and relatively few sellers.  Do the Mariners really want to compete in the deadline trade market for one of a very few potentially available SS (a Jack Wilson or Felipe Lopez or&#8230;)?  Is that the best way to expend the team&#8217;s resources?</p>
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		<title>By: Mike Snow</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2009/06/30/the-bedardwashburn-myth/comment-page-2/#comment-336360</link>
		<dc:creator>Mike Snow</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 01 Jul 2009 16:49:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=8594#comment-336360</guid>
		<description>Baker is now &lt;a href=&quot;http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/marinersblog/2009406425_can_the_mariners_still_contend.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;arguing&lt;/a&gt; that Bedard makes a difference because he can regularly go at least six or seven innings. (You know, the chain-reaction-wearing-out-the-bullpen-in-the-second-half theory from 2007.) As well as Bedard has pitched when he&#039;s been available, I&#039;d like to know what Baker&#039;s been watching, because we haven&#039;t seen that Erik Bedard in the past year and a half, and I don&#039;t know why you&#039;d think he would suddenly appear now when we&#039;re building him back off his latest injury setback.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Baker is now <a href="http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/marinersblog/2009406425_can_the_mariners_still_contend.html" rel="nofollow">arguing</a> that Bedard makes a difference because he can regularly go at least six or seven innings. (You know, the chain-reaction-wearing-out-the-bullpen-in-the-second-half theory from 2007.) As well as Bedard has pitched when he&#8217;s been available, I&#8217;d like to know what Baker&#8217;s been watching, because we haven&#8217;t seen that Erik Bedard in the past year and a half, and I don&#8217;t know why you&#8217;d think he would suddenly appear now when we&#8217;re building him back off his latest injury setback.</p>
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		<title>By: rcc</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2009/06/30/the-bedardwashburn-myth/comment-page-2/#comment-336336</link>
		<dc:creator>rcc</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 01 Jul 2009 05:38:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=8594#comment-336336</guid>
		<description>This article is now accessible straight from the online PI...hope they pay a royalty fee to the boys of the USS Mariner.  Way to go guys...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This article is now accessible straight from the online PI&#8230;hope they pay a royalty fee to the boys of the USS Mariner.  Way to go guys&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: dave6267</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2009/06/30/the-bedardwashburn-myth/comment-page-2/#comment-336239</link>
		<dc:creator>dave6267</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 01 Jul 2009 02:08:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=8594#comment-336239</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;

    I’m not making conclusions. I’m poking a hole in the “Bedard/Washburn have been vital to the club’s success” theory, which just isn’t based on reality.

If Washburn and Bedard had pitched like replacement level pitchers, instead of like 3-4 WAR pitchers, the M’s would have been worse than 12-13 during the games they started (probably 3 games worse). If the M’s were 3 games further out of it, the discussion would be significantly different right now. C’mon, Dave, just admit you got one wrong for once.
&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Couldn&#039;t agree more. I was surprised to see this &#039;evidence&#039; used on this site. I agree that shipping one of them off for a ML ready SS could add more wins than it loses, but W/L... come on. Like CCW said, if you want to play the results-based game, look at how much worse we would be without Bedard and Washburn</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote>
<p>    I’m not making conclusions. I’m poking a hole in the “Bedard/Washburn have been vital to the club’s success” theory, which just isn’t based on reality.</p>
<p>If Washburn and Bedard had pitched like replacement level pitchers, instead of like 3-4 WAR pitchers, the M’s would have been worse than 12-13 during the games they started (probably 3 games worse). If the M’s were 3 games further out of it, the discussion would be significantly different right now. C’mon, Dave, just admit you got one wrong for once.
</p></blockquote>
<p>Couldn&#8217;t agree more. I was surprised to see this &#8216;evidence&#8217; used on this site. I agree that shipping one of them off for a ML ready SS could add more wins than it loses, but W/L&#8230; come on. Like CCW said, if you want to play the results-based game, look at how much worse we would be without Bedard and Washburn</p>
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		<title>By: The Ancient Mariner</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2009/06/30/the-bedardwashburn-myth/comment-page-2/#comment-336195</link>
		<dc:creator>The Ancient Mariner</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 01 Jul 2009 01:16:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=8594#comment-336195</guid>
		<description>Also, CCW, the extremes aren&#039;t really relevant to the generalization.  What matters w/r/t the generalization is whether, &lt;i&gt;in general&lt;/i&gt;, a team&#039;s position players as a whole are more important to its success than its pitching staff; and &lt;i&gt;in general&lt;/i&gt;, this generalization is true, and demonstrably so.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Also, CCW, the extremes aren&#8217;t really relevant to the generalization.  What matters w/r/t the generalization is whether, <i>in general</i>, a team&#8217;s position players as a whole are more important to its success than its pitching staff; and <i>in general</i>, this generalization is true, and demonstrably so.</p>
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		<title>By: NODO Dweller</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2009/06/30/the-bedardwashburn-myth/comment-page-2/#comment-336093</link>
		<dc:creator>NODO Dweller</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Jun 2009 21:38:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=8594#comment-336093</guid>
		<description>&lt;em&gt;I don’t think that’s correct. The whole point of using the concept of replacement level, and WAR, is so you CAN compare the value of players at different positions, including pitchers and players at any position, against one another. &lt;/em&gt;

I believe that&#039;s wrong - WAR specifically separates position players from pitchers in a variety of ways per &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/how_to_calculate_war/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;THE BOOK&lt;/a&gt;.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>I don’t think that’s correct. The whole point of using the concept of replacement level, and WAR, is so you CAN compare the value of players at different positions, including pitchers and players at any position, against one another. </em></p>
<p>I believe that&#8217;s wrong &#8211; WAR specifically separates position players from pitchers in a variety of ways per <a href="http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/how_to_calculate_war/" rel="nofollow">THE BOOK</a>.</p>
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		<title>By: diderot</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2009/06/30/the-bedardwashburn-myth/comment-page-2/#comment-336092</link>
		<dc:creator>diderot</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Jun 2009 21:35:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=8594#comment-336092</guid>
		<description>Leaving aside the results-based analysis question and the pitching-versus-hitting argument, I think the heart of the post is here...
&lt;blockquote&gt;The Mariners have options open to upgrading the team by trading Bedard or Washburn. They can deal one of the two and still get better this year.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Emphasis on the last to words--&#039;this year&#039;.  Given what everyone in baseball knows about their contract situations/injury history/under bus throwing, I think it&#039;s wishful thinking to see us using either of the pitchers to get a major-league ready replacement for Beltre.  Not someone as good as Beltre--just someone better than Branyan or Shelton or Woodward or whomever.  If we do, let&#039;s start the parade for Z early, no matter what the team does from here on out.

So what I&#039;d like to see added to this conversation are the relative reversals we&#039;re going to see trying to replace Beltre&#039;s defense.  In other words, how good do we expect any of the logical internal replacements to be with the glove...or for that matter, any of the  hopefuls we might be able to pry away from other teams?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Leaving aside the results-based analysis question and the pitching-versus-hitting argument, I think the heart of the post is here&#8230;</p>
<blockquote><p>The Mariners have options open to upgrading the team by trading Bedard or Washburn. They can deal one of the two and still get better this year.</p></blockquote>
<p>Emphasis on the last to words&#8211;&#8217;this year&#8217;.  Given what everyone in baseball knows about their contract situations/injury history/under bus throwing, I think it&#8217;s wishful thinking to see us using either of the pitchers to get a major-league ready replacement for Beltre.  Not someone as good as Beltre&#8211;just someone better than Branyan or Shelton or Woodward or whomever.  If we do, let&#8217;s start the parade for Z early, no matter what the team does from here on out.</p>
<p>So what I&#8217;d like to see added to this conversation are the relative reversals we&#8217;re going to see trying to replace Beltre&#8217;s defense.  In other words, how good do we expect any of the logical internal replacements to be with the glove&#8230;or for that matter, any of the  hopefuls we might be able to pry away from other teams?</p>
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		<title>By: CCW</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2009/06/30/the-bedardwashburn-myth/comment-page-2/#comment-336091</link>
		<dc:creator>CCW</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Jun 2009 21:26:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=8594#comment-336091</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;I’m not sure if that’s a very sound way to look at the question, but for what it’s worth, the opposite has been true for every year that Fangraphs has UZR data.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Agreed - it doesn&#039;t tell you a whole lot.  I was just pointing out the question whether position players or pitchers are more &quot;important&quot; or &quot;valuable&quot;, in the abstract, while maybe interesting on a theoretical level, has very little practical significance.  If you want to answer a question that matters, you need to look at the actual value of the actual players you are discussing.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>I’m not sure if that’s a very sound way to look at the question, but for what it’s worth, the opposite has been true for every year that Fangraphs has UZR data.</p></blockquote>
<p>Agreed &#8211; it doesn&#8217;t tell you a whole lot.  I was just pointing out the question whether position players or pitchers are more &#8220;important&#8221; or &#8220;valuable&#8221;, in the abstract, while maybe interesting on a theoretical level, has very little practical significance.  If you want to answer a question that matters, you need to look at the actual value of the actual players you are discussing.</p>
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		<title>By: CCW</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2009/06/30/the-bedardwashburn-myth/comment-page-2/#comment-336090</link>
		<dc:creator>CCW</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Jun 2009 21:22:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=8594#comment-336090</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;Yeah, but WAR is position-adjusted. The fact that Greinke/Lincecum are further above replacement relative to the population of starting pitchers than Pujols is relative to 1Bs says nothing about their worth relative to each other.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

I don&#039;t think that&#039;s correct.  The whole point of using the concept of replacement level, and WAR, is so you CAN compare the value of players at different positions, including pitchers and players at any position, against one another.  

You&#039;d rather have Greinke&#039;s performance this year so far and a team full of replacement level players than Pujols&#039; performance so far this year and a team full of replacement level players.   Greinke has been more valuable, worth more wins, more important, or whatever term you want to use, than Pujols, so far this year.  

I think...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>Yeah, but WAR is position-adjusted. The fact that Greinke/Lincecum are further above replacement relative to the population of starting pitchers than Pujols is relative to 1Bs says nothing about their worth relative to each other.</p></blockquote>
<p>I don&#8217;t think that&#8217;s correct.  The whole point of using the concept of replacement level, and WAR, is so you CAN compare the value of players at different positions, including pitchers and players at any position, against one another.  </p>
<p>You&#8217;d rather have Greinke&#8217;s performance this year so far and a team full of replacement level players than Pujols&#8217; performance so far this year and a team full of replacement level players.   Greinke has been more valuable, worth more wins, more important, or whatever term you want to use, than Pujols, so far this year.  </p>
<p>I think&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Teej</title>
		<link>http://ussmariner.com/2009/06/30/the-bedardwashburn-myth/comment-page-2/#comment-336088</link>
		<dc:creator>Teej</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Jun 2009 21:17:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ussmariner.com/?p=8594#comment-336088</guid>
		<description>&lt;em&gt;Hell, by WAR, the two best starters (Zach Greinke and Tim Lincecum) have each been worth about 1 win more than the best hitter (Albert Pujols) this year.&lt;/em&gt;

I&#039;m not sure if that&#039;s a very sound way to look at the question, but for what it&#039;s worth, the opposite has been true for every year that Fangraphs has UZR data.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Hell, by WAR, the two best starters (Zach Greinke and Tim Lincecum) have each been worth about 1 win more than the best hitter (Albert Pujols) this year.</em></p>
<p>I&#8217;m not sure if that&#8217;s a very sound way to look at the question, but for what it&#8217;s worth, the opposite has been true for every year that Fangraphs has UZR data.</p>
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