Game 61, Mariners at Rockies
Since we’re in interleague play and get to enjoy watching pitchers hit, here’s a thought. Jarrod Washburn has a career OBP of .326 in 50 PA. That’s higher than everyone else in tonight’s lineup except for Ichiro and Branyan.
RF-L Ichiro
1B-L Branyan
3B-R Beltre
2B-R Lopez
CF-L Chavez
LF-R Cedeno
SS-R Betancourt
C-R Johnson
P-L Washburn
In other news, Bedard is a scratch again to-Morrow.
Branyan’s Regression
Over the last couple of weeks, both here and at FanGraphs, I pointed out that Russell Branyan was due for some regression. In April, his batting average on balls in play was .405. In May, it was .391. Those are just not sustainable numbers, regardless of how well you’re swinging the bat. The normal range of true talent BABIP is something like .260 to .360, with slow sluggers on the low end and slap-hitting speedsters on the high side. There was just no way that Branyan was going to keep posting a .390 BABIP.
And, we were totally right. Branyan’s BABIP in June has crashed down to a more normal .316. Take a look at how it’s affected his monthly totals:
April: .333/.415/.614
May: .317/.412/.614
June: .290/.410/.613
Hilariously, Branyan has responded to the regression in his ball in play hit rate by cutting down on his strikeouts and hitting the crap out of the ball, even more so than earlier in the season. As you can see, it would have been basically impossible for him to be any more consistent in his OBP/SLG performance by month, even if the way he’s getting there changed.
Branyan has been everything we hoped Jeff Clement would turn into, but with better defense at first base. For all the consternation of Clement’s lack of development/injury problems/whatever, we’ve got a guy who is continuing to prove that he’s one of the better left-handed power hitters in the game. This signing couldn’t have possibly worked out any better.
Game 60, Mariners at Orioles
Olson v. Uehara, 4:05? (weather permitting)
RF-L Ichiro
1B-L Branyan
3B-R Beltre
DH-L Griffey
2B-R Lopez
SS-R Betancourt
LF-R Balentien
C-R Quiroz
CF-L Chavez
USSM Goes To Safeco
We’ve told you to hold the date a couple of times, but here are the details of the next USSM event.
Saturday, August 8th, 5 pm, Safeco Field. We have reserved 300 seats in sections 321/323 for a USSM group outing to Safeco Field for the Mariners-Rays game that evening. In addition, when you purchase a ticket to join our group for the game, you’re also invited to join us for a pre-game Q&A with the Mariners front office and your local blogging community (Derek, myself, Jeff Sullivan, Matthew Carruth, and Graham MacAree will all be there). One week after the trade deadline, the guys who run the baseball club will be spending a good portion of time talking to us and answering your questions. After that, we’ll all head upstairs and watch the game together.
The total cost for the event, including your ticket to the game, is $25. This is, quite frankly, a steal. You get to watch the M’s play the defending American League champs and get a chance to talk to the decision makers of the ballclub for the price of a normal ticket. We’re happy to partner with the Mariners to provide this opportunity for you guys.
To buy tickets to the game/event, go here and follow these instructions:
2. Select “Find Tickets†then enter USSMARINER as your promo code and click “Verify†(ignore the “e-mail address†option).
3. You will need to use the “Create an Account†option on the right side of the following page. This is a Seattle Mariners Group Account (NOT a Ticketmaster account) and will consist of your e-mail address and a unique password that will enable you to order tickets for future Mariners events. Note: If you have previously purchased through this system and already have an account created, please proceed with your existing account information.
4. You will be able to locate your seating, purchase your tickets, and print your tickets instantly- all from your home or office computer!
5. Join us for a pre-game event from 5:15-6:45pm in the Ellis Pavilion! Please enter through the door along 1st Avenue located next to the Third Base Entry. Entry into this pre-game event is limited so purchase your tickets early!
6. To order more than 25 tickets or if you require wheelchair seating, please call Yoko McCann at (206) 346-4505
Your tickets will have a special marking on them which will allow you entrance to the pregame Q&A. The room where we’re having the pregame Q&A can only hold 300 chairs, so we’re going to have to restrict entrance to the Q&A to people who have purchased tickets through our group event. If you’re a season ticket holder and already have tickets for that game, my advice would be to sell them and just buy a ticket to come hang out with us. We’ll be more fun, even if your seat might not be as good.
Once you’ve purchased a ticket for the event, you’re almost done. In order to be able to communicate with everyone and keep a firm head count for the chair setup, we’re going to ask that you fill out the form below with your name and email address for each person you buy a ticket for. If you’re bringing someone but don’t know who yet, just add a “Your Name’s Guest” entry, so that we can know that your contact information accounts for more than one person. If you’re bringing multiple unknown guests, just number them “Your Name’s Guest 1”, “Your Name’s Guest 2”, etc…
Finally, when you’ve done that, and you have a ticket in hand and have let us know you’re coming, we’d like to ask you to consider potentially kicking in a few dollars via paypal to help cover our costs for the event. When we do these, we add our overhead into the cost of the event, but since we’re having you pay through ticketmaster this time, that’s not an option. I’m forking out a decent amount of cash to fly out to Seattle, and Derek, Jeff, Matthew, Graham, and myself are all paying our way into the event just like the rest of you. If you feel like you want to send $5 our way to help defray some of our costs for this, that’d be great. We love hosting events like this, and we think you enjoy them too, so it will be easier for us to keep doing them if we don’t go in the red in order to pull them off.
So, that’s the USSM event in August. Pregame Q&A with the M’s front office and a ticket to watch to the M’s-Rays game with 300 other USSM readers for $25, plus suggested $5 donation to help offset our costs, and don’t forget to fill out the form so that know how many to plan for and can communicate with you guys if need be.
See you all in August!
Game 59, Mariners at Orioles
Betancourt is back in the lineup. On a more positive note, Happy Felix Day! And game threads are back after a one-day hiatus, because there really wasn’t much point in discussing yesterday’s abysmal offense anyway. Hernandez v. Guthrie, 4:05.
Draft Updates
The 4th round just kicked off, and draft will go through round 30 today. I’ll update the picks as I have time here, with limited commentary on the guys I know a little bit about.
4th round – James Jones, OF/LHP
He’s a two way kid from New York who had been up to 94 off the mound but with no secondary stuff to write home about, so the M’s intend to use him as a position player. At 6’4 and with serious athleticism, there’s a lot of upside if the bat develops. You’ll hear comparisons to Mike Cameron and Adam Jones because he’s black and a good athlete, but those are obviously long shot best case scenarios, or he’d have gone about 100 picks higher than this. As another lefty bat with upside, it seems clear that the M’s know what they want to build around long term. For everyone who wasn’t happy with the lower upside picks yesterday, you should like this one.
5th round – Tyler Blandford, RHP
The M’s finally take a pitcher, and here’s a shock – it’s a hard thrower with no idea where the ball is going. If you like the guys in the bullpen right now, you’ll love Blandford. He’s 93-96 with a fastball, and he also throws a slider and change-up, but his command is a 15 on the 20-80 scale. Not surprisingly, he’s projected as a reliever long term, since he just doesn’t throw enough strikes to be a starting pitcher. Maybe the M’s can make a mechanical tweak and get him fixed, but probably not – he’s another higher upside guy with boom or bust potential, though.
6th round – Shaver Hansen, 3B
If you weren’t convinced that the M’s wanted guys who could swing the stick from the left side yet, they’ve added another one with the switch hitting Hansen. He played SS in college, but no one thought he could stick there, and the M’s announced him as a third baseman. He had a good year offensively, showing added power, but there are questions about how well he’ll hit with wood. He doesn’t have great footwork or athleticism, either, so he might not be a good defensive third baseman, even with the SS pedigree. Probably a utility infielder type in the majors if he gets there.
7th round – Brian Moran, LHP
I think the M’s like UNC’s baseball team this year. First Ackley, then Seager, now Moran. Moran has underwhelming stuff, throwing 85-89 with his fastball, but his delivery gives him some deception and allows him to get college hitters out. His secondary stuff isn’t great, and he’ll need to improve his breaking ball to fit into a LH relief role long term. But he’s probably not a major league pitcher, despite dominating NCAA hitters (his FIP was #2 in the country behind some guy named Strasburg).
8th round – Jimmy Gillheeney, LHP
The M’s take another kid from the state of North Carolina, drafting NC State’s best pitcher. He’s a pitchability lefty with a good change-up that will have to become a great one, because his fastball is well below average, ranging from 83-89. Jason Vargas is his upside.
9th round – Trevor Coleman, C
Switch-hitting catcher who had a terrible junior year, causing him to fall. He was pretty good in the Cape Cod League last summer, and the M’s will be hoping he can get back to that level. He should be able to stick behind the plate and offers some offensive upside. This is a nice pick in the 9th round.
10th round – Vincent Catricala, 3B
A third baseman who might end up in the outfield, he’s shown power and the ability to hit a fastball, but has struggled with off-speed stuff. But, hey, he’s a right-handed bat, so that’s different.
That’ll do it for me. I’ve got stuff to do, and the 11th+ round picks are extreme longshots to make the majors. Overall, though, I think the M’s did a nice job in rounds 1-10. Be happy.
The End Of Yuniesky Betancourt
Ronny Cedeno played shortstop for the Mariners again last night. That’s four games in a row with a couple of off days thrown in. Add it all up, and Yuniesky Betancourt hasn’t been in the line-up in a week. And this time, it’s not an ultimatum with an opportunity attached – the Mariners are ready to pull the plug on the guy. LaRue’s got the good quotes:
Betancourt, who has had meetings with his manager and coaches all season, insists he’s doing nothing different now than ever.
“I’ve been doing the same routine for years,” Betancourt said. “I can’t control the lineup. I’m doing whatever I’ve done in the past.”
That, of course, may well be the issue. Betancourt has never been a hard worker, and the past four days have not served him well.
Since being out of the lineup, his teammates say, Betancourt has not taken a single ground ball.
And Monday, when 12 position players showed up for early batting practice, Betancourt was not among them.
“I was asleep on the plane when they announced that,” Betancourt said.
Clearly, this management group – from general manager Jack Zduriencik to Wakamatsu and his coaches – have had enough of half-assed workouts and a failure to adjust.
The simple truth is, Betancourt has minor league options left, and one plan is to send him down and tell him he won’t be back until he shows his work ethic has changed.
“You can’t play a guy who doesn’t work hard on a team where everyone else busts their ass,” one Mariner said. “I don’t know why this never happened before, but no one in this clubhouse has any doubts about why it’s happened now.”
Well, no one but Yuni.
We’ve all watched first hand as Yuni has regressed from an athletic young player into a complete waste of space and time. His lack of hard work is nothing new – even after an offseason where he trained with Raul Ibanez, he showed up to camp as the same rotund non-athlete that he was at the end of last year. He’s getting worse at every facet of the game, and at this point, he’s not a major league player.
We’ve all had enough, and so have the M’s. If Betancourt wants to actually put in a little bit of effort to live up to the abilities he was born with, great. But he needs to do that in Tacoma, and earn his way back to the major leagues by showing that he cares enough to make himself into a guy who deserves to be here. If that never happens, so be it – I’m perfectly happy never having to watch him play baseball again.
Brandon Morrow Is A Starter Again
Want some more good news? Morrow’s tired of being a reliever, and he’s headed back to Tacoma to convert back into the starting rotation. DivishLaRue has the story at histhe TNT blog.
Whether Morrow can learn how to be an effective starter or not is still up for grabs, but I’m glad to see him try.
Welcome To Seattle, Kyle
The M’s final selection of the day is Kyle Seager, a left-handed hitting 3B/2B from North Carolina. Ackley’s teammate, Seager is another pick that I’m going to like more than most. His lack of power will be cited by people too stuck on traditional roles, but he’s a nice all-around player – good approach at the plate, line drive swing, and quality defense at third with a chance to move to second. Definitely a guy who gets more production out of his ability than his raw tools would indicate.
There’s a clear theme with the M’s picks today – they’re all strong fundamental position players with an understanding of the strike zone. Of the five, Poythress is the only one with a plus power tool, as the M’s continue to value all around players over sluggers. Its the right strategy, I think.
Overall, I’m pleased with day one. I know a lot of you will be upset that the M’s passed on the big name pitchers, but this is one of those situations where the team had significantly more knowledge about the players than we did. They got the #2 pick right, and I like the group they took at #27/#33/#51/#82. I’ll call it a successful first day.
Welcome To Seattle, Rich
Do you want a guy who can hit the ball over the wall? Meet Rich Poythress, a prodigious power hitter who can really whack the baseball. He’s right-handed and a 1B/DH type, which is why he fell to the second round, but the guy can really turn on a fastball. He had a monster year in the SEC, and as late as a few weeks ago was looked at as a mid-first round guy.
This is a nice value in the second round, even though he might not be a great fit for Safeco. I wouldn’t be surprised if he developed fairly quickly and was used as a trade chip to get something else that might fit the M’s needs next year or the year after.