Game 57, Twins at Mariners
Slowey v Bedard.
Burke! Jamie Burke!
Um, also, Cedeno at short, Chavez in left. But Burke’s back! Denny Stark gets the DFA to make room on the roster.
Game 56, Twins at Mariners
Blackburn vs the Sometimes New, Sometimes Improved, Frequently Frustrating Jarrod Washburn. 1:10
Sooo the M’s…
RF-L Ichiro!
1B-L Branyan
3B-R Beltre
DH-L Griffey
2B-R Lopez
SS-R Cedeno
LF-L Chavez
C-R Quiroz
CF-R Gutierrez
By way of contrast, here’s the Twins —
CF-L Span
DH-L Mauer
1B-L Morneau
3B-R Crede
RF-R Cuddyer
SS-R Harris
C-R Redmond
LF-R Young
2B-S Casilla
I always hope when I see D Young in the lineup for the Twins it’ll be Dmitri Young, because that would be hilarious.
Anyway, it’s surprising that the Twins are going to stack the lineup so heavily with lefties against a starter. Usually teams seek out ways to get the platoon advantage from the start, and are only held back by the need to look out for relievers later. Here the Twins either think their lefties will be immune to Washburn’s charm, or don’t care.
I wonder which it is.
No, Really, Defense Matters
That’s why Franklin Gutierrez is a good player and Wladimir Balentien sucks.
Game 55, Twins at Mariners
Liriano v Felix.
Sweeney at DH! Yessss! Batting 4th! Yessss!
On the other hand, Cedeno gets back in, so he’ll have a shot at redeeming his generally disappointing performances. It’d be nice to see him get back into the infield rotation.
Quick Hits
My latest Wall Street Journal article is up, dealing with the strange season Adrian Gonzalez is having in San Diego. I haven’t linked to these that much lately, but I’m doing three or four per month over there, and “The Count” is also authored by guys like Tim Marchman and Jonah Keri, so you should check it out regularly.
Erik Bedard was on with Brock and Salk yesterday and said he likes Seattle. That’s nice. There’s still about a 0.1% chance he re-signs here this winter.
The Tacoma Rainiers play down in Cheney tonight, with Ryan Rowland-Smith getting his final rehab start. If you don’t want to drive to Tacoma, you can watch it on TV. The Rainiers announced a television deal with Comcast Sports that will allow them to air 15 games this season, including tonight’s contest. The always awesome Mike Curto will be doing the play by play.
Also, we’re getting really close to announcing the details of our next USSM event in Seattle. As previously mentioned, it will be Saturday, August 8th, and we’re doing it at Safeco before the Mariners-Rays game that evening. We’ll roll out all the details shortly, but keep the date free. You’re going to want to make this one.
What To Make Of This Team
Off days are always good for reflection, and as we mentioned a few days ago, it’s pretty likely that the front office and coaching staff will be meeting today to discuss the roster, what they want to do going forward, and the approach they’re going to take the rest of the season. Six games back with 108 to play is not an easy hole to dig out of, and the M’s playoff odds stand at somewhere around 15% right now. However, it’s also not an insurmountable task, and it’s likely that the new front office will give this team a bit more time to see how the 2009 season unfolds. So, what should we expect from this team going forward, now that the first third of the season is in the books?
Should Improve
Adrian Beltre – The guy is a really streaky hitter, so while his lousy first two months weren’t any fun to watch, he always brings the possibility of a .360/.410/.600 stretch into every month of the season. Beltre’s glove kept him contributing even without the offense, so he was worth +0.8 wins over the first 33% of the year. Given that he’s a +3 to +4 win player, we should expect him to be worth about +2.3 wins over the remainder of 2009. In other words, he’ll be a bit better, but the improvement will be more marginal than dramatic, as the offensive gains will be somewhat offset by lower expected defensive contributions.
Jose Lopez – At 25, he’s having the worst year of his career, which isn’t exactly normal. He hasn’t been able to sustain his offensive step forward from last year, and his defense just continues to deteriorate. Even his most ardent supporters will admit that the idea that he’s an average defensive 2B is a myth now. His lack of range means he has to hit in order to be valuable, and while he’ll hit better than he has so far, how much he’s going to hit is a real question mark. He was worth -0.6 wins through the season’s first trimester, and I’d peg him for about +0.6 wins over the rest of the year. Like Beltre, there’s improvement coming, but it’s not dramatic.
Brandon Morrow – The one guy in the bullpen we shouldn’t have had to worry about, Morrow’s command fell apart and his reliance on one pitch turned him into a home run machine. However, relievers are finicky, and it doesn’t take much for them to fix their problems and see the performances shift quickly. Morrow’s still the best arm the team has in the bullpen, and he should be able to add +0.5 wins in the second half of the year, a nice little improvement from the -0.3 wins he contributed so far.
Should Decline
Russell Branyan – I’m as thrilled with the guy as anyone else, and he’s the kind of pickup we’ve been begging the organization to make for years, but he’s simply not a .319 hitter. Thanks to some balls finding holes (.394 BABIP), he’s been worth +2 wins to the team already, but that’s really unlikely to continue, as much as we’d all love it to. A realistic projection for Branyan over the next four months has him contributing +1 win. His expected regression is of a similar magnitude to the bounce back we’re expecting from Lopez.
Erik Bedard – Again, I think we’re all thrilled that he’s pitching well, and he’s giving the team a chance to win every time he takes the mound. However, his 2.37 ERA is more than a run lower than his 3.46 FIP, and that’s more luck than defense. His 84.7% LOB% is higher than anyone posted last year, and even if you thought he was the best pitcher in baseball, he wouldn’t be expected to keep stranding runners at this rate. Over the next 20 starts or so, we should expect Bedard to give up nearly a run more per nine innings than he has so far.
Jarrod Washburn – Washburn is legitimately pitching better than he has at any time since 2002. From 2003 to 2008, he posted FIPs ranging from 4.35 to 4.97. Right now, his FIP is 3.58, which would be the best mark of his career if it held out all year. It’s not going to. His HR/FB rate is 6.3%, about 3% lower than his career mark. We can certainly expect him to pitch better over the rest of the year than we thought he would at the beginning of the season, but he’s not going to continue to pitch this well all year. Like with Bedard, we need to add nearly a full run per nine innings over what he’s given the team so far in 2009.
Jason Vargas – Hopefully, I don’t need to write a lot of words to explain why he won’t keep posting a 1.93 ERA. He’s done a nice job since taking Carlos Silva’s spot in the rotation, but his strand rate is off the charts. He’s put 31 men on base, and allowed 5 home runs, and only eight men have scored off of him. That’s ridiculous. It’s been helpful, but it won’t last. Vargas is a #5 starter, and we should expect an ERA more in the 4.50 to 5.50 range over the rest of the season.
There are some other lesser roles that we would expect some minor performance shifts in, but they aren’t as significant as these seven. Getting Rowland-Smith and Shawn Kelley back will help the pitching staff, but Sean White won’t keep getting outs on balls in play at the same rate. Griffey will probably hit a little better, but Ichiro will probably hit a little worse. Most of those things are just going to even out, or come close to it.
The seven fairly major changes we should expect, from Beltre-Lopez-Morrow-Branyan-Bedard-Washburn-Vargas, actually point to a slight regression in performance from this roster. The things that are expected to get worse will be more harmful to the team’s win-loss expectancy than the things that are expected to get better.
In other words, you can’t look at this roster and say “hey, awesome, they’re only two games under .500 with Beltre and Lopez hitting like crap. Once they catch fire, we’re golden.” That’s just bad analysis.
We said at the start of the season that this roster looked like a 78 win team to us. They are currently on pace to win 78 games. This team has performed almost exactly as we would have expected. Not every player is going to match their projections, obviously, but as a whole, this team is what we thought it was – not terrible, but not great.
So, what do they do now? If the M’s want to try to make a run at the Rangers and Angels, they need to upgrade several pieces of the roster, most notably the middle infield. This isn’t a playoff caliber team with Betancourt and Lopez playing SS-2B. One (or both) need to be replaced, preferably by a left-handed hitter.
Over the winter, Jack showed an adeptness and moving a valuable major league piece for some guys who could help the team both now and in the future. With the team kinda sorta hanging around the AL West race at the 1/3 mark of the season, but doing it with several free agents to be who aren’t going to keep performing this well, it will be interesting to see if he can do it again. Right now, a buy-and-sell approach might be the M’s best bet. Move Bedard and Washburn while their value is at its peak, and either get players back who can help you right now, or line up simultaneous deals where you’re comfortable giving up prospects to improve the middle infield due to the return you got for the two pitchers.
There are lots of ways the M’s could go from here. It will be interesting to see which path Jack chooses.
Game 54, Orioles at Mariners
Bergesen v Vargas. Wait.
So what’s the best option for a lineup against a right-hander, given the M’s current composition, and Vargas on the mound? Standard L/R alternation preference, Chavez for the defense… I’m thinking:
RF-L Ichiro!
CF-R Gutierrez
1B-L Branyan
DH-L Griffey
C-R Johjima
LF-L Chavez
3B-R Beltre
2B-R Lopez
SS-R Betancourt (can I use Cedeno? Is he still alive?)
Hmm. Having written it out, I don’t like it so much any more. Go nuts, Wak!
Draft Stuff
We’re now just six days away from the first day of the draft, where the M’s will pick five times in the first three rounds. For the last few months, everyone’s just been collecting reports on different guys, but when you get within a week, we start finding out which teams are likely to do what. This year is no exception. Here’s what I’m hearing about the M’s picks as of right now.
First Round, #2
Dustin Ackley – 90%
Aaron Crow – 9%
Field – 1%
It will be a pretty big upset if the M’s don’t take Ackley. He’s the second best prospect in this draft, and there’s not really an argument for anyone else. He’s a good fit for the M’s organizational needs and their home park, and he’s the kind of player that can get to the majors quickly. There’s a chance that the M’s could go with Crow if they really want an arm who could be in the rotation in 2010, but bet on Ackley at #2.
First round, #27
Supplemental Round, #33
I’m lumping these two together because these picks are going to be made in conjunction with one another. If they take Ackley at #2, the M’s would really like a high upside arm at #27. However, most of the premium pitchers will be off the board before then, so their best bet to snag a quality pitching prospect will be to grab the inevitable tough-sign guy who slides. However, in order to sign that kind of player, they’ll have to go over the slot recommendation for the #27 pick, and that’s where the #33 pick comes in.
Depending on who you talk to, the M’s have already cut a pre-draft deal or are working on a pre-draft deal with HS catcher Steven Baron, whom they will select with the 33rd pick. Baron will sign for less than the #33 slot recommendation, which gives the M’s extra cash to throw at the #27 pick. Baron’s a catch-and-throw guy with top notch defensive skills and a questionable bat – he showed better than expected power at a HS event last week, but there are still significant questions about how well he’ll hit with wood. On talent, he’d go in the 50-100 range.
So, these two picks are basically a package deal. The odds listed below are for the different packages you might expect the M’s to end up with at #27/#33 under this scenario.
25% – Tanner Scheppers and Steven Baron
20% – Matt Purke and Steven Baron
20% – James Paxton and Steven Baron
10% – Kyle Gibson and Steven Baron
Those four are the pitchers most likely to fall to #27. Scheppers and Purke are asking for more money than any team is willing to give them right now, while Paxton and Gibson have been hurt by some low velocity readings in their end of season starts. Odds are pretty good that at least one of those four will be on the board at #27, which would give the M’s a chance to pull off the current plan. However, they might all be off the board, or the M’s could decide they’re not interested in the specific guy who does fall, at which point they’d likely turn to the backup plan, which right now appears to be AJ Pollock, a shortstop-turned-center fielder from Notre Dame whom the M’s would convert back into a second baseman. If they went with Pollock at #27, they’d probably take a more conventional player at #33, and then select Baron at #51.
There’s also the scenario where they don’t take Ackley at #2, which then puts them in the hunt for Brett Jackson at #27 or #33.
20% – AJ Pollock and Field (leaning towards a pitcher – Drew Storen or Kyle Heckathorn?)
5% – Brett Jackson and AJ Pollock
Second Round, #51
Trying to tie down names to the later picks is basically a fool’s errand, because there are so many variables in play ahead of the second and round third choices. Baron is a pretty likely pick if the M’s don’t take him at #33. If they do, they might save money again with another lower ceiling guy who will sign quickly in order to make sure they have enough cash in the budget to sign both Ackley and whatever pitcher they took at #27. If they’re not looking to save money with the pick, I’ve heard Nick Franklin (HS switch hitting middle infielder with some power) attached to the M’s.
Third Round, #82
No one has any idea, even the M’s. We’ll find out on Tuesday night.
Here are the MLB.com reports for each player listed above:
Dustin Ackley, 1B/CF, UNC
Steven Baron, C, HS
Aaron Crow, RHP, Indy
Nick Franklin, SS/2B, HS
Kyle Gibson, RHP, Missouri
Kyle Heckathorn, RHP, Kennesaw State
Brett Jackson, CF, Cal
James Paxton, LHP, Kentucky
AJ Pollock, CF/2B, Notre Dame
Matt Purke, LHP, HS
Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Indy
Drew Storen, RHP, Stanford
For continuous coverage of draft rumors through next Tuesday, your best bets are Baseball America and the ESPN draft blog updated by Keith Law and Jason Churchill .
Game 53, Orioles at Mariners
Gotta get on the bike and see if I can get home from work fast enough to catch the first pitch. StupidNecessary day job!
Friday Is Coming
For those of you who are tired of watching this offense flail away, you might only have to wait a few more days.
The next two nights, the Orioles throw right-handers at the M’s. Tonight, it’s a guy who struggles to throw strikes, and tomorrow, it’s a sinkerball guy. Don’t expect any big offensive surges in either game, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the team drop either or both of these games, even with Bedard going tonight. Thursday brings an off day before the Twins come into town for the weekend.
Usually, when teams make significant shifts in how they’re approaching a given season, it happens after a day off at home. These breaks in the schedule give the front office and the coaching staff a chance to sit down together and come up with a revised plan without worrying about that night’s game. They don’t get that many opportunities to have these kinds of organizational meetings, especially during the part of the season where buy-or-sell decisions are needing to be made sooner than later.
To top it off, the Rainiers return home for a four game homestand today, and will be in Tacoma through Friday. They go to Vegas on Saturday, and are then traveling through the middle of the month. When the big league club has an off day and Tacoma is at home, you’ll often see quite a few of the upper management guys at Cheney Stadium.
It’s a perfect storm for making some changes. The M’s rank second to last in baseball in production from their designated hitters, while Jeff Clement and Chris Shelton are destroying the PCL. Michael Saunders continues to impress with his offensive improvement, while Endy Chavez and Wladimir Balentien aren’t providing much of an obstacle at the moment.
Even if Zduriencik doesn’t want to pull the plug on 2009 yet, the team has options in Tacoma. Unless the M’s go nuts against Baltimore the next couple of days, I’d expect to see some changes made on Friday.