Sell High On Mark Lowe?
We’ve talked the Washburn/Bedard trade possibilities to death. However, the most interesting story surrounding the team right now is what they’re going to do in the next month to re-shape the roster for the rest of 2009 and beyond. Those two aren’t the only ones they’ll have to make decisions on, however. I’d like to suggest that now might be a great time for the organization to consider trading Mark Lowe.
Every year, there are teams out there pursuing relief pitching at the deadline. This year is no different, with Colorado, Minnesota, Detroit, Philadelphia, Texas, Florida, and both Los Angeles teams looking to pick up a relief arm to bolster their chances for a playoff run. On the flip side, the M’s have bullpen depth, thanks to the breakout of David Aardsma and the impending return of Shawn Kelley, plus the expected 2010 arrival of Phillippe Aumont and Josh Fields.
Given the way the market is shaping up, I’d like to suggest that the team make Mark Lowe available for offers. He has a lot of things going for him that would make him an attractive trade piece – He’s just 26 years old, makes the league minimum and isn’t eligible for free agency for four more years, has a sparkly 3.28 ERA, and his 96.2 MPH average fastball is the fifth fastest in baseball.
To teams looking for bullpen help, Lowe should have significant appeal. He doesn’t come with a prohibitive contract. He isn’t a rental player. His velocity suggests closer potential. And, in the stat that still dominates how people perceive pitching quality, he’s doing well already.
Of course, we’ll just have to hope they don’t notice that Lowe isn’t actually pitching all that well. While his strikeout rate continues a disturbing nosedive, his walk rate is still above four, and he’s giving up more fly balls than ever. His 3.60 FIP is deflated by the fact that only 2 of his 38 fly balls have left the yard. In addition, Lowe has basically stopped throwing his change-up, which has made him ineffective against left-handed hitters.
Lowe isn’t a bad reliever, but he’s not a particularly good one either. There’s potential there for more, but for whatever reason, he’s regressing instead of getting better. As a guy who has found his velocity again after recovering from arm surgery, you’d like to see improvement in his strikeout rate, but we’re getting the opposite from Lowe.
He might still put it all together, and there is potential in a guy with a 96 MPH fastball and the ability to throw two secondary pitches. But if you’re looking for a guy who could probably bring back more in trade than he’s worth, Mark Lowe would be a prime candidate.
The last time Jack traded an overvalued relief pitcher, it worked out pretty well for us, I’d say. We’re not going to get the next Franklin Gutierrez for Mark Lowe, but I’d bet he could fetch a pretty interesting player. More interesting than a right-handed relief pitcher with a strikeout rate headed the wrong way, anyway.
Lowe was the first player to pop into my mind when people were saying there was a match for Atkins since the Rockies need a “power reliever”. I don’t know enough about the way the Rockies value Atkins to know if that would be enough, but that definitely seems like something worth looking into.
Very good idea. He’s been kind of flying under the radar – not really prominent in a linchpin-to-bullpen sense, not really popping up in trade rumors. Which means it’s the kind of creative option Jack might pursue.
I’d like to think there’s someone better than Atkins or Kouzmanoff that Lowe could bring back for us. Don’t know who that is.
This is also something I was thinking about – at least when it came to who else we might package with someone like Washburn to bring in an infielder.
I think Lowe has the stuff to be a very good reliever, even a closer, but I agree he has to develop his off-speed stuff, which for some reason he has abandoned.
Lowe would be an ideal addition to the trade if Seattle, especially if the M’s were to involve a third team like Washington in dealing Washburn to the Phillies – while Lowe was kept by the Nationals in return for Guzman. Philly would give Washington a minor leaguer or two as well to complete the trade.
Just a thought.
I like the idea, but here’s something I wonder… do you think other teams pay attention to the blogospehere of their rivals. I mean if I were the GM for the Twins and I saw this, and recognized that this blog has pretty solid empirical analysis I might think twice about offering too much. It’s like using bloggers as unofficial advance scout, I guess.
But yeah that would be great if we could turn Lowe into an asset, every time he and Batista come into the game I cringe at how regression can hit at any time.
Mark Lowe really reminds me of Aardsma circa two or three years ago. Big arm, great stuff, but doesn’t quite have “it” put together yet. I want to see him suceed, even if it isn’t here. If he can get the organization something useful in return, I’m all for it.
Why would we want a shortstop with an undisciplined approach at the plate, an expensive contract, and cratering defensive performance? You’re just swapping out the current problem for one that’s four years older, but hey at least he switch-hits. Guzman may be superficially appealing offensively because he’s running lucky on BABIP, and isn’t worth the contract extension Jim Bowden gave him. Not that Washburn is a great trade chit, but this year at least he’s more value than he’s being paid, and shouldn’t be dumped for the likes of Guzman, let alone if we throw in Lowe.
Dave,
Any guess on how many front offices might still use ERA as a valid measurement tool? Any?
The risk present in dealing Mark Lowe is that he does put it all together, and turns into J.J. Putz for two or three years. That’s a possibility with Lowe, too, and of course he’s still recovering from surgery. He’s found his fastball, and this offseason may give him a chance to work on his change.
That being said, I think that risk is more than compensated for by the factors that Dave mentions here. Lowe’s still an injury risk, the side numbers are showing disturbing trends in the wrong direction, and other teams may look at that 96 MPH fastball and say, “Ooooh, shiny!” If you get a decent player in return, or if you can package Lowe with another player to get back the M’s shortstop of the present/future, then yeah, go for it.
As unlikely as it may seem, I think Batista might be the first guy out of the bullpen to find a home on a “contender.” All we need is an old-school GM with a leaky bullpen and/or a semi-shaky rotation, and $4 million in spare change to spend on a savvy veteran.
While a few teams are using technology to their advantage, there are still a lot of Luddites in baseball.
I wouldn’t worry about it too much.
Sorry if this constitutes rosterbation, but two questions:
Is Jason Donald someone projected to be a true MLB SS, or would/could he be a 3B-type? I know he’s struggled with the bat at AAA, but every scouting report suggests he’s the real deal. And if so,
Is he someone we could pry away from the Phillies for Batista and/or Lowe?
Howie Kendrick. I don’t know if the teams would be willing to trade with each other, but it seems like a nice fit. Of course, it presumes that LAA remains down on Kendrick. It would have the benefit of addressing third base for the mid-range as well, with Lopez shifting to third.
[not even remotely related to the topic]
Ha. Luddites. I guess that’s true, but I mean how great would that be if a team were actually doing something like that. It would revolutionize the way the front office works.
Seems like if an organization valued the kind of analysis that happens around here, they’d already know everything about Lowe that’s been said, and if they don’t value that kind of analysis, then they wouldn’t be paying any attention to it.
In either case, I don’t see that there’s any value in holding back data.
Sell, sell, sell,sell!!!!!!!!!!!!
This wouldn’t be a dumb move for another GM to make. This is a position of relative strength to the M’s organization with Fields and Aumont on the way up. So if it’s a position of weakness for another team the trade makes lots of sense.
Even if the other GM is smart enough to know to look beyond his numbers, the M’s can still get a good return due to two simultaneous factors:
A) the other GMs’ public will demand something
B) with multiple interested parties, winner’s curse will help net a decent return. (time vs. selling high can work against this, so pray against regression)
Not a big loss if you ask too much and fail to move him – you still have a pitcher who is a couple unrefined pitches away from domination. If we can convince Felix to use more offspeed stuff, we can convince Mark. Ask too much Jack!
Now that sounds like a fun job–be paid by a MLB organization to read the blogs of other teams. Well, it’d be fun if most baseball blogs were as good as this one, and if Fangraphs were part of the daily reading.
It would be like market research via blogging.
And I see your point, but maybe it’s a preliminary process to jumpstart the actual research. IDK just a thought.
If we can get anything to make this team better minus the obvious no-trader’s why not?
I think someone asked about this very thing at the meeting of the minds at the library a few months ago. Whichever one of the Mariner front office folks answered said something like, “Yes we use all sources of information.” I think they do pay attention to other teams’ blogs (and probably this one too).
So, if some teams pay attention to this site we need more of this.
Indeed, and even better, this year it’s even faintly close to the truth.
So I take it we’ve concluded there’s a noticeable difference between Mark Lowe and Sean White then?
Lowe > White. You’re not going to get anything for a guy with a 1:1 BB/K rate and no out pitch though. White’s just a guy. Lowe, you could probably flip for something interesting.
While his K/9IP has fallen close to around 7 his BB/9IP was sub 4BB/9IP before I wrote this. The difference between him and Putz is you risk him actually going out and dominating hitters since he has the FB/SL/CU combo and that screams relief ace of sort VS. Putz you just had a feeling he was done the splitter was gone his FB velo was gone. Also how about trading Aardsma as well then? He’ll also get hit hard down the stretch and that ERA/FIP will take a hit once the long balls start coming in (2.5% HR/FB ratio sustainable? I kinda wish) And after all Aardsma is a proven veteran closer. That’s bound to get more than a fireballing set-up guy right? You can go either way with this both have light’s out potential and it’s a matter who you believe in more.
I don’t think we’re going to get anything really interesting for just Lowe, but he could definitely be a useful part of a trade with other players to net an interesting player or two back.
Just like Jeremy Reed had little value on his own, but was a useful part of a deal to get good players back.
Maybe the M’s can build their team this way… get a ton of very cheap relievers with upside, and find the one the succeeds, and make him the closer (Just like Aardsma). Then trade them for a package like Putz!
One can wish.
Jordan, your idea is not a new one, just packaged a little more strenuously. Like any strategy, it needs an implied, “in the current marketplace” qualification. In the current marketplace, as Dave often points out, certain relievers are overvalued and others can be had for a song, with the distinction between the projected performance of the two groups insufficient to justify the difference in salary. So long as that is true, the strategy of buying low and selling high with bullpen assets makes sense.
Dave,
What is your take on Jones vs Franky. I’ve been arguing with other fans that I think Franky is better, that to go along with his crazy defense his bat hits enough to push him just ahead of Jones. Maybe I’m wrong but I do think Ms fans tend to evaluate Jones through emerald-colored glasses, and are personally invested in his value to justify the horrible Bedard trade.
Just curious. thanks
Dude named Billy Beane has been doing this for years.
It may be time to visit the Cleveland Indians again. They have interesting infield surplus, including a need to move Peralta, and they need relief.
Lowe for Pujols. Anyone, anyone. Bueller, Frye…