Bedard currently middle of the Type Bs
DMZ · July 13, 2009 at 5:40 pm · Filed Under Mariners
Wanted to touch on this since it affects trade value: there are ~10 guys ahead of him in the Bs right now, according to Eddie Bajek in Detroit Tiger Thoughts latest calculations. You want page 7. So the value for hanging onto him is not so great.
Fun fact: Washburn, according to this, is not so far off the B ratings himself.
Dave adds: However, offering Washburn arbitration, a necessary step in order to get compensation for a departing free agent, would be crazy. He’d clean the Mariners clocks in arbitration, thanks to his rosy ERA this year. So, he’s a non-compensation player, for all intents and purposes.
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Do you think Washburn would sign a one year deal, though, no matter how much his agent thought they could get?
I’d have to imagine that even with the economy in the toilet that some team out there would give him a multi year deal for big bucks, based on his new pitch and success this season.
No, no they would not.
Washburn would get $12-$15 million for 2010 if he goes to arbitration. He might not get $12 to $15 million for 2010-2011 combined if he hits free agency.
Every agent worth his salt says accept before the M’s can even get done faxing over the arb. offer.
I can’t talk about the details since the session was off the record. But when SABR hosted Z man and other Mariners officials at a meeting prior to Fan Fest in January, a guy explained the process using Felix as an example. Felix got just about what he should. They use comparables, so yeah, we’d get killed taking Washburn to arbitration.
Maybe KC would give Washburn $20 million for a couple of years. Or the Nationals.
I just have to think that somebody out there would do it.
Unless there will be a lot of free agent starting pitchers this year.
Go look at last year’s crop of free agents and what they signed for.
[long link]
There is a Silva every year. Don’t make Perez par for the course.
Yeaaaa….we really don’t want to offer Jarrod Washburn arbitration.
An article from Ryan Divish (News Tribune), published not too long ago, notes that Washburn considered retiring after the end of his Mariner contract.
Of course that was before the season started. Now that he’s having himself quite a year he doesn’t really want to talk about retiring. He’s having fun now and will want to keep pitching for a while longer.
One problem.
He ranks Rick Adair as one of his favorite pitching coaches. And needless to say, he enjoys working with the new Mariner staff.
Given the fact that Washburn is pretty close to the end of his career, there’s little incentive for him to decline arbitration and test today’s market, especially with upwards $15 Million for one year on the table for accepting it.
Not like there’s much else he needs to accomplish. He’s already been to the playoffs. He’s already won a World Series ring.
Avoid at all costs.
it strikes me a contradictory to say that washburn would kill the M’s in arbitration because of comparables, then note that last year’s comps weren’t that high (what Dave’s last comment seems to imply). What are the comps that would give him $12-15 mil? they look at more than just most recent ERA and K’s, age, and previous performance weigh against Wash. and he could always agree to decline, which other player’s have done.
I’m just amused to see that Josh Wilson has the lowest rating in the entire system.
Are these rankings based on 2008 & 2009 numbers, or 2007 & 2008? I understand that Type A players are in the top 20% of their position, but what criteria are used to determine that?
I guess what I’m trying to get at is this: How is Vicente Padilla considered a Type A player and ranked ahead of guys like Gil Meche, Nick Blackburn, and Edwin Jackson? Based on the standard stats, the latter three pitchers should all be ranked pretty well ahead of Padilla.
Thank you to anyone who can provide some insight!
Who should the Mariners offer arbitration to? Obviously Bedard, but Beltre? Branyan? I say offer arbitration to all three and hope to retain Beltre and Branyan. Bedard will get multi-year offers so he will not accept. Beltre and Branyan might not get offers to their liking and having them on one year deals could help them establish type A value by the end of next season.
As an aside, this years free agent crop is one of the worst I can remember. The top two players will likely be Jason Bay and Matt Holliday. I wouldn’t touch either unless it was a discount type of deal for Jason Bay to come play LF for hometown team.
Why are Ichiro and Carl Crawford type Bs?
decatur7, that is why the whole system is a complete joke. I noticed the same thing and I couldn’t believe it.
The rankings posted are accumulated from 2008 until now. Basically it provides a picture of free agent compensation if the season ended today.
This link will provide further info as well as how the rankings are determined.
it strikes me a contradictory to say that washburn would kill the M’s in arbitration because of comparables, then note that last year’s comps weren’t that high (what Dave’s last comment seems to imply). What are the comps that would give him $12-15 mil? they look at more than just most recent ERA and K’s, age, and previous performance weigh against Wash. and he could always agree to decline, which other player’s have done.
Arbitration does not work that way.
Washburn has an uncanny ability to pitch out of his mind and far surpass his value when he has a little motivation. His value has far outpaced his contract in only these 3 seasons:
2002 – last season at league minimum
Value: $11.6MM Contract: $400k
2005 – contract year
Value: $8.1MM Contract: $6.5MM
2009 (Projected based on 190 innings) – contract year
Value: $16.1MM Contract: $9.9
Does he have impeccable timing, or he is just lucky? I hope the M’s don’t re-sign a guy who has only been a superb ROI in 25% of his career.
I guess for the same reason that a future Hall of Famer such as Milton Bradley is considered a “Type A”.
I see Vincente Padilla is also a type A. This system makes little sense to me.
Judging by his hair, I’ve always pegged him as type 10W-30.
I’d like to ask more of a question on the procedure. If you trade a player from one League to another could that have an affect on their “Type X” status?
Seems odd, that you would lose out from one of the beneifts of a FA leaving your team just because you played in the wrong league.
Can I point out that the season is only half over? There’s no guarantee that Washburn’s ERA stays where it is through October. Just through the effects of random chance he could start to suck pickled eggs starting next week, and then what would we get for him?
Trade him today.
A large part of Washburn’s ERA is the responsibility of the outfield, as is true with any flyball pitcher . Chavez got hurt but Langerhans is a reasonable fill-in, and as long as Gutierrez and Ichiro are out there he’s fairly safe. A few more balls will find the seats instead of gloves during the hot months, but as long as his walk rate doesn’t jump for some reason his ERA should be fairly stable. His BABIP is lower and his strand rate is higher this year than any of his past years with the M’s, but they’re both in line with some of his years with the Angels, so again that may just be chalked up to defense (and luck).
So he might regress in the second half, but there’s no certainty of it. Trade him for sure if there’s a good deal to be had, but not just because he might get worse.