Game 96, Indians at Mariners
Laffey vs Rowland-Smith, 7:10 pm.
It’s the return of Hyphen, and Wak celebrates by putting out the best line-up possible:
Ichiro, RF
Branyan, 1B
Lopez, 2B
Shelton, DH
Gutierrez, CF
Langerhans, LF
Johjima, C
Hannahan, 3B
Cedeno, SS
Pitching staff stays at 11
According to the TNT blog, Roy Corcoran has been designated for assignment to make room for Ryan Rowland-Smith’s return to the rotation. I wouldn’t expect Corcoran to get claimed, of all the guys on the roster he should be just about the easiest to pass through waivers. But if not, Sean White is doing the stuff he did last year but better, so it would hardly be a tragedy.
As nice as it is to have more guys on the bench (now please untie Chris Shelton from it), the move suggests how the team plans to fill Sunday’s rotation slot. Vargas would be right on schedule for it, but that requires another move, probably swapping out for a position player as off days dwindle and we return to a 7-man bullpen. That gives a couple more days before a tougher decision has to be made, and even that might be postponed if Gutierrez’s neck, Griffey’s knee, or one of several backs simplifies things a bit.
It’s A Sellers Market
We’ve heard a lot of talk about how the economy is going to cause players with big contracts to be significantly less valuable as trade chips, and that the market for high paid players is going to be way down this summer.
So much for that. The Cardinals just traded their best prospect, Brett Wallace, along with a quality pitching prospect in Clayton Mortensen, and a third okay prospect in Shane Peterson, for two months of Matt Holliday and $1.5 million in cash. With the A’s kicking in 25% of his remaining salary, the Cardinals are on the hook for $4.5 million over the rest of the season.
Holliday’s a good player, but this is a ton to give up for a rental. To put into Mariner equivalencies, this would be similar to if the M’s had shipped off Michael Saunders, Ryan Rowland-Smith, and Tyson Gillies for Holliday. We’d all be throwing up if the M’s had made that move, so you can imagine how Cardinal fans are reacting right now. St. Louis wanted Holliday, and they paid through the nose to get him.
If Zduriencik needed a nudge one way or another on what he should do with Bedard and Washburn, this should push him towards selling. It’s clearly still very much a seller’s market.
The Next Five Days
The next five days for the M’s should be fairly interesting, if only to see how Wak handles the line-ups. Check out the pitchers the M’s are scheduled to go against between now and Tuesday.
Friday, Aaron Laffey, LHP
Saturday, Jeremy Sowers, LHP
Sunday, Cliff Lee, LHP
Monday, Ricky Romero, LHP
Tuesday, Mark Rzepczynski, LHP
A couple of months ago, this would have been fantastic news. Not so much now, with Beltre on the shelf and Gutierrez questionable due to the wall crash in Detroit. Now, the line-up features guys like Langerhans and Hannahan, in addition to Ichiro/Branyan/Griffey, so facing a lefty isn’t a benefit like it was earlier this year. And five straight lefties? This isn’t exactly the stretch you want to see when you’re trying to bust Russ Branyan out of a slump.
Then, there’s the issue of who goes to make room for RRS on the roster tonight. Chris Shelton is the guy without a job, but punting him before a string of LHPs doesn’t make a lot of sense. Roy Corcoran is the most vulnerable reliever, but if they’re going to use Jakubauskas to start on Sunday, then they’d be down to a six man bullpen for the weekend, and none of the Hyphen/Bedard/Jak trio can really be expected to give you 7+ innings. They could option Olson to Tacoma, but there’s a 10 day stay required in Triple-A after being optioned, so the M’s wouldn’t be able to bring him back if they moved a pitcher or two at the deadline, and they’re not likely to want to be put in that situation.
Lots of tough calls for the M’s this weekend.
This Is Getting Fun
51-44 after a couple more one run wins. No, the win 2-1 plan isn’t going to work long term, but wins are wins, and the M’s are getting the games they badly need. Now, if the Twins could just go ahead and do a number on the Angels, that’d be nice.
How about Ryan Langerhans, by the way? Another hit and an HBP today, plus a couple more nice catches in center field. It really is amazing that he languished in Triple-A to start the season. Every team in baseball could use a good defensive outfielder who understands the strike zone and has some power. He’s close to a league average major league player, and the M’s got him for free. These are the kinds of pickups that good teams make.
The guy playing next to Langerhans, though? Less impressive. And no, I don’t mean Ichiro. Whether the M’s decide to go for it or not, they should still move Wladimir Balentien to someone who wants to give him a chance to learn how to hit something besides a fastball. He’s just totally lost on soft stuff, and even against a LH pitcher, he looked abysmal trying to hit anything that moves. With Langerhans here and Saunders coming, Balentien doesn’t have a future in this organization. Offer him to the Pirates for Ian Snell or the Nationals for Josh Willingham or something.
David Aardsma, June + July: 21 innings, 7 walks, 29 K. Yeah, he still gives up a lot of scary fly balls, but a 4.00 K/BB rate with no platoon split? That’s a relief ace.
And finally, Washburn. What else is there to say? Keep pitching well, Jarrod. It’s only good news for us.
Game 95, Mariners at Tigers
Washburn vs French, Rain Delay, Start Time Unknown
Washburn gets a bit of a test today, agianst a line-up with some bats that can thump lefties and Franklin Gutierrez sitting on the bench. Comerica’s dimensions will help him, but Langerhans/Balentien are no Gutierrez/Chavez, so Wash is actually going to have to pitch well today.
With the Angels playing out of their minds, the M’s have to keep winning. 6+ games back and it’s sell time.
Ichiro, RF
Branyan, 1B
Lopez, 2B
Sweeney, DH
Balentien, LF
Langerhans, CF
Johnson, C
Hannahan, 3B
Cedeno, SS
Game 94, Mariners at Tigers
It’s Felix Day! And Hyphen Time approaches.
Finding a fifth starter might be more problematic. We have until Saturday to figure that out, but neither Vargas nor Morrow are particularly appealing options. Vargas’ command has been off and Morrow gave up four runs in the first his last time out. The reports coming back were not all that positive.
In the meantime, FELIX.
RF Ichiro!
1B Branyan
2B Lopez
DH Griffey
LF Balentien
CF Langerhans
C Johnson
3B Hannahan
SS Cedeno
No, Really, Hyphen Time
Wak didn’t listen to me last week when I declared it was time for Ryan Rowland-Smith to displace Garrett Olson in the rotation. After last night’s drubbing, he came around to the obvious – Olson is out, Hyphen will start Friday night versus the Indians.
And there was much rejoicing.
What Will Felix Cost?
Happy Felix Day. After losing 1 1/2 games in the standings last night, we badly need a Felix Day. The way he’s been pitching this year, I think we’d all like to see Felix Day made a Seattle holiday for a long, long time. But, as we sit and watch the Blue Jays consider trading Roy Halladay and the Indians listen to offers for Cliff Lee, the reality is that the Mariners are going to be in the same position a year from now.
The M’s control Felix for 2010 and 2011 before he heads for free agency. Since they were never able to sign him to a multiyear contract, he’s got significant leverage as he heads towards his second season of arbitration eligibility. The 4+ years of service time guys usually do pretty well, making ~60% of their free agent value. Felix is easily going to command at least $10 million if the team goes to arbitration with him this winter, so the chance to lock him up long term at bargain rates have gone by the wayside.
What would it take for the M’s to re-sign Felix to a multi-year contract this winter, assuming he would be willing to delay his free agency by a few years? For a baseline, let’s look at some recent 4+ year arb. eligible pitchers who signed long term deals and gave up at least one year of free agency in the process.
Zack Greinke, 2009: Signed a 4 year, $38 million deal.
Dontrelle Willis, 2008: Signed a 3 year, $29 million deal
Scott Kazmir, 2008: Signed a 3 year, $28.5 million deal with a fourth year team option for $13.25 million.
I see a trend. The going rate for talented, young starting pitchers signing contracts as a 4+ year service time guy has been $9.5 million per year. Of course, none of those guys were coming off a season like Felix is having right now, so he’d certainly command a premium above and beyond that kind of deal. Factoring in some salary inflation and Felix’s superiority to recent comparables, you’d think that the M’s would have to start by offering something like $50 million over four years to get in the conversation.
The problem, though, is there’s very little incentive for Felix to sign a deal like that. He’s almost certainly going to get $10+ million for 2010 if he goes through the arbitration process. 4+ year service time guys usually get about 60% of their free agent value, and Felix is a $20-$25 million per year pitcher. Then, in 2011, he’d be looking at a salary around $15 to $18 million.
If Felix doesn’t sign a multi-year deal this winter, he’s in line for about $25 to $30 million for 2010 and 2011, assuming he stays healthy. A 4 year, $50 million offer would be valuing his first two years of free agency at about $12.5 million apiece, which is probably half of what he’d actually get. Yes, there’s a discount involved in getting some financial security up front, but we can’t realistically expect him to leave 50% of his free agent salary on the table when he’s only two years away from cashing in with a massive, long term deal.
Felix would probably want to value those two years at something closer to $15-$18 million apiece. That would require a 4 year, $60 million offer this winter. That would put him in line with what players like A.J. Burnett and Derek Lowe got on annual basis as a free agent. In other words, he’d be accelerating his earnings by taking a deal that is suitable to significantly inferior talents.
4 years, $60 million. It’s a big offer – well above what the Greinke/Kazmir/Willis triumvirate were able to negotiate. But that’s my feeling on what it would take to lock Felix up this winter, so that 12 months from now, we’re not the team trying to figure out if we should listen to offers for our Cy Young contender.
Game 93, Mariners at Tigers
So the Mariners are going up against rookie right-hander Rick Porcello, who has struggled a bit with his command this year. What’s that you say? Didn’t he beat the Mariners anyway earlier in the year?
April 19th @ Seattle: 7.0 IP, 5 H (HR), R, 3/0 K/BB, 11/7 G/F
And he’s only become a more extreme groundball pitcher in the past few months? And the Tigers plan on running out an infield of Inge-Everett-Polanco-Cabrera? Shoot.
Lineup:
RF Ichiro!
1B Branyan
2B Lopez
DH Griffey
CF Gutierrez
LF Langerhans
C Johjima
3B Hannahan
SS Cedeno
Rangers, Angels, why couldn’t you two have lost more games recently?
Edit: cdowley in the comments reminds me that reports earlier in the day said that Josh Wilson will be designated for assignment to make way for Mike Sweeney. We’re keeping Shelton around, it seems.