Fun Thought Of The Day
In thinking about what the M’s should do at the trade deadline, I had a thought that hasn’t been discussed anywhere else that I know of. Given the saturation of coverage the buy or sell decision has gotten, that’s pretty rare indeed, so I figured I’d share this outside-the-box* piece of thinking with you all.
On July 29th, the M’s are scheduled to play the Blue Jays at 1:40 pm at Safeco Field. The tentative pitching match-up: Erik Bedard vs Roy Halladay.
If those pitchers take the hill that afternoon, you have to think the M’s are something like 25% to win, 75% to lose. Halladay is that good. Take Halladay out of the picture, and our win probability probably rises to 50%, maybe higher depending on who replaces him. So, having Roy Halladay get traded before he starts against the Mariners next Wednesday would be worth something like 1/4 of a win to the M’s.
Given the team’s current place in the standings, wins are extremely valuable. Teams pay $4 to $5 million per win in free agency, but the marginal value of a win is significantly higher once teams have figured out that they’re in contention by the summer. In reality, the marginal value of a win to the Mariners is probably more like $6-$8 million right now. You could potentially argue that it’s worth up to $10 million, depending on how much revenue you think the team could generate from a playoff series at Safeco this fall.
So, 25% of one win is worth somewhere between $1.5 and $2.5 million to the M’s. Split the difference, and we’ll just call it $2 million. If the M’s want to really think outside the box as the deadline approaches, they’ll figure out which team is the leading contender to acquire Halladay, call that GM up, and offer him $2 million in cash to get the deal done on July 28th. Call it the We-Don’t-Want-To-Have-To-Face-Him bounty.
Perhaps the most important trade the M’s could be involved with is one where no players from their organization move at all. Don’t worry about improving the roster – bribe Ruben Amaro to improve his!
*I’m 95% kidding. But man, it would be fun to see Selig’s reaction if he found out that one GM was trying to bribe another into making a deal that didn’t involve his team.
Explaining Away Regression To The Mean
Odds are you’ve read a story lately about how Russell Branyan is struggling as he reaches the summer of his first season as a full-time player. After a monstrous first half, he’s not hitting as well lately, and the explanations are pouring in. He’s tired. His back hurts. Pitchers are figuring him out. Managers have figured out how to shift against him and he hasn’t adjusted. If you’re looking for a reason for Branyan’s struggles, you have a buffet of choices to blame them on.
Of course, there’s a simpler explanation – it’s just natural regression to the mean.
In April, Branyan posted a .405 batting average on balls in play. In May, it was .391. These are outrageously high totals that nobody in history has been able to sustain, much less a first baseman whose hardest hit balls end up in the seats. There was basically no chance that he’d be able to continue getting balls in play to find a hole 39% of the time. We talked about this quite a bit, warning that regression was coming. A guy who strikes out as much as Branyan does can’t hit .300. It’s almost impossible.
Indeed, regression did come. In June, his BABIP was a more normal .286, right around where we’d expect Branyan’s true talent level to be, based on his skillset. His monthly line was still a good .265/.376/.590, but the batting average didn’t get inflated by balls avoiding gloves in record numbers. July, though, has been uglier – .180/.288/.426, giving rise to all the various theories for the cause of the slump.
Branyan’s BABIP in July? .200. His other, more stable numbers?
13.6% BB% in July, 12.8% BB% for the season
33% K% in July, 28.5% K% for the season
.246 ISO in July, .292 ISO for the season
His walks and strikeouts are barely up and his power is very slightly down. Over 70 plate appearances, we’re talking about basically no difference at all. And, the extra strikeouts are actually just due to some coin flip calls by the home plate ump – his contact rate (69% in July) is higher than it was April-June (67%). There’s literally nothing to worry about here – Branyan’s slump is just normal BABIP variation. He got some good bounces in April and May and he’s got some bad bounces in July. He’s the exact same player he was, and reacting to the results will simply lead to making a bad assumption about what’s going on.
But this happens all the time. Not just with Branyan, but across the board. Remember Sean White’s struggles a few weeks ago? The local media decided it was because he was getting tired after being worked too hard for the first few months. White himself said he felt great, and had no problems, but that didn’t matter. He was giving up hits, and that meant he was running on fumes.
Sean White’s BABIP by month: .182, .182, .333 (he’s exhausted!), .125
White drastically overachieved the first two months of the season thanks to some good defense and good luck. The results started to match his talent level in June, and this was blamed on overwork. He’s been lucky again in July, but there’s no reason given to why he’s no longer tired. And remember, White claimed he felt great the entire time.
Players understand how this stuff works. Branyan was asked about why he’s slumping, and his response was basically “This stuff happens. The season is cyclical. Sometimes you run hot, sometimes you run cold.” (paraphrase because I can’t find the actual quote right now)
For whatever reason, though, people just can’t accept that there is not always a primary driving reason for a change in results. That’s why we get stuff like “so and so has changed his batting stance and is now hitting .500 for the last two weeks”, but you never hear about the new stance again after he goes back to hitting .260. Or, from a Mariner-centric point of view, you’ll hear a lot of talk about how the M’s need to keep their pitching rotation strong to keep the bullpen from regressing due to overwork.
Bad news – the bullpen is going to regress either way. Whether the M’s keep Bedard and Washburn or not, there a bunch of relievers on this team with numbers that are unsustainable. The M’s bullpen has an ERA that is 0.69 runs lower than their FIP, and while the defense is a decent chunk of that, there’s a luck component in there too. Sean White and Chris Jakubauskas are running crazy low BABIPs. 1.8% of Aardsma’s fly balls are leaving the park. These numbers are going to regress. They have to.
And when they do, you’re going to hear explanations for why. White will be tired again. Jakubauskas will have lost the command of his fastball. Aardsma will feeling the pressures of his first pennant race as a closer. We could write the stories right now. But, in the end, it’s just going to be simple regression to the mean, just like we saw with Branyan in June. He ran lucky for two months, had a normal Branyan month, and now is running unlucky. It doesn’t mean anything.
The sooner that we can get the world to embrace the concept of random variance, the better. Results fluctuate wildly in small samples due to uncontrollable factors. That’s just a fact of life, and when we’re forming our opinions, we need to realize just how powerful regression really is.
Rob Johnson’s Offense
When the conversation turns to Rob Johnson, inevitably you can bet you’re about to have a discussion about the value of a catcher beyond the things that we’re currently able to quantify. Catcher ERA, belief systems, language barries… you know the drill by now. I’d imagine most of us cringe and turn away when someone says “let’s talk about Rob Johnson”, because the topic is getting old and boring, with neither side having much new to say.
So, why don’t we talk about his offense instead?
Johnson’s seasonal batting line isn’t good – .209/.278/.340 adds up to a .271 wOBA. Among catchers with at least 150 plate appearances, only Jeff Mathis and Dioner Navarro have been worse offensively this year. Over a full catcher season (~500 PA), Johnson’s offensive performance to date would be worth about 30 runs less than a league average hitter. That’s bad – for context, Russell Branyan’s current level of hitting would be worth about 35 runs above a league average hitter over a full season, so Johnson essentially cancels out Branyan at the plate.
Given his struggles at the plate, and the team’s inability to score runs on a consistent basis, it is easy to see why he’s become such a lightning rod for criticism among fans who don’t value the intangible “belief system” stuff as much as Wakamatsu does. However, if we take a closer look at his offense, perhaps there is more reason for hope than previously believed.
Of Johnson’s 32 hits this year, 16 of them have been for extra bases. When he makes contact, he has the ability to hit the ball hard. He doesn’t have much in the way of loft power, as he’s more of a ground ball/line drive guy whose fly balls are usually easy targets for the outfielders, but he has the ability to drive the ball into the gaps or down the lines. Particularly if he gets a fastball – there’s enough bat speed there for him to turn on it and get himself to second base.
His problems at the plate are an over-aggressive approach (he swings at 30% of pitches outside the strike zone), an inability to handle good breaking stuff, and some holes in his swing that make it tough for him to make contact on pitches inside. Early in the season, pitchers could pound him with fastballs in and sliders away, and he was an easy strikeout. Over the last few weeks, though, he’s made adjustments at the plate.
He’s not chasing those pitches he has problems with early in the count nearly as often anymore. In July, he’s swung at just 41% of the pitches he’s seen, a number comparable to a normal month for Franklin Gutierrez. By increasing his selectivity of what to swing at, he’s getting himself into better situations, and it’s paying off. From April through June, he drew 8 walks in 132 plate appearances – in July, he’s drawn six walks in 39 plate appearances. Perhaps more importantly, he’s only struck out six times this month, for a 15.3% K% – he was at 24%, 26%, and 29% the previous three months.
In comparable amounts of playing time, his monthly BB/K rates are as follows:
April: 1/11
May: 4/12
June: 3/12
July: 6/6
Obviously, the last one sticks out. For the last few weeks, he hasn’t been a chaser, and pitchers are finding that getting him out would require a good pitch. They can’t just throw pitches he can’t hit and let him get himself out, as he’s simply taking that option away from them with his more selective approach at the plate.
Pitchers will adjust, and they’ll start throwing Johnson better pitches in the strike zone. Just because he’s had a good few weeks doesn’t mean he’s now a good hittter – he still has those holes in his swing, and while he’s doing a better job of taking pitches, he still likes to swing the bat, so don’t expect his July performance to be sustainable going forward. But, he’s shown that he can adapt at the major league level, and he’s going to force pitchers to come up with a new game plan to get him out.
The gap power, the improved selectivity at the plate and better contact rates – these are encouraging signs. There’s a reason his ZIPS projection for the rest of the season is .254/.309/.347, a significantly better performance than what he’s put up to date. Even without getting too excited about a small sample hot streak in July, there are legitimate reasons to expect Johnson to be just a not-good hitter instead of a terrible one going forward.
And, realistically, if Johnson is capable of a .290 wOBA (which is what ZIPS projects), then he’s the best option the team has behind the plate. Rob Johnson might not be the kind of catcher that statistical analysts love, but there are worse things to have than a catcher who pitchers love while whacking a double or drawing a walk every now and then.
Minor League Wrap (7/13-19/09)
It’s an abbreviated week in a lot of respects, as the All-Star Game meant that most affiliates weren’t playing and the PCL and the Southern League were both on their respective breaks. Nevertheless, we are not lacking for things to write about…
To the jump!
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There’s Still Time
Last weekend, I road-tripped to an out-of-state wedding that basically took me out of the baseball loop for the weekend. During that time, the Mariners took three of four from the Texas Rangers, dumped Yuniesky Betancourt on the Royals, and acquired Jack Hannahan to help fill the hole at third base.
This weekend, I took my wife on her first-ever camping trip (she enjoyed it, will do it again, thanks for asking) to the mountains of North Carolina, which again took me out of the baseball loop from Friday to Sunday. The M’s won all three games while I was out of town, with Gutierrez showing Cleveland why we love him (he’s now 11th in baseball in wins above replacement, by the way), Felix still pitching like a true ace, and Washburn continuing to inflate his trade value.
I don’t have any plans for next weekend yet, but if the M’s know what’s good for them, I’ll be receiving some airline tickets from the club shortly. I’ve heard Nova Scotia is beautiful this time of year…
Game 92, Mariners at Indians
10.
The M’s will be showcasing Bedard today after yesterday’s Washburn focus. If you act now, qualified buyers can get cash back and 0% financing on this starter and easy payment terms including PTBNL and live arms not on the 40-man roster. Bedard is estimated to retain his resale value over the next month if you drop from contention. Plus there’s a limited-time government incentive of $4,500 if you trade in your old starter to be recycled. And if you call today, we’ll throw in the Mariner Moose. That’s right, the Mariner Moose, yours for one homestand to show off to fans, rent out to furry conventions, whatever you want as long as it’s legal or the cops don’t find out.
Larry Stone has a smart, fairly long discussion with Wakamatsu about the Rob Johnson-Johjima playing time split.
Game 91, Mariners at Indians
Washburn v Ohka. Wait– Washburn’s still here? Um, I mean of course he’s still here! He’s the anchor of this rotation, a much-improved veteran left-hander who combines experience with a newly mastered pitch that exemplifies his dedication to always getting better. Why would the team trade him? Why, if I was a playoff-contending team, I’d pay any price to bring this fine player over before my opponents twigged to the possibility.
Don’t be distracted by Seattle finally getting light rail after… all my life, pretty much (side notes: Light rail! Woooooo! Please get a line over one of the bridges and start doing crazy good, please!). This is where it’s at.
The Angels are beating Oakland as I write this (it’s 8-5 in the 5th) and the M’s are going to have to keep winning if they want to cling to their playoff hopes, which are about 20% right now, depending on where you look.
So win. Win win win.
Lugo as a cheap upgrade option
Today’s email carried a lot of questions about Julio Lugo among our standard massive load of spam/accusations of selling out/press releases. With the Red Sox giving up on him, should the M’s pick him up if he’s essentially free?
Maybe, but it’s not such a clear yes. Even assuming that his knee injury’s responsible for some of his 09 performance in limited playing time, he’s below-average defensively, he’s not driving the ball much any more, but he’d be a welcome on-base hitter in the lineup.
The really good thing is you don’t have to give up anything for him, where (as we’ve already seen) Jack Wilson, JJ Hardy, and the other trade targets command prices that at least are high enough that the team hasn’t made a move yet. That’s even more attractive when you consider that even if the M’s turn into sellers, a free shortstop upgrade helps them stay above water the rest of the year, when the weather’s nice and Safeco Field’s full.
Below-average glove and average bat is a lot better than what we’ve had so far this season. I know Cedeno’s been playing well lately, but even as a middle-infield caddy, Lugo’d make some sense for the M’s. The cost is certainly right.
Update for clarification: Lugo’s been “designated for assignment” which means he’s not on the Sox roster any more, and they have to now put him on waivers, where all the teams can claim him and take on his contract (or work out a deal), trade him, or release him. The reports are that the Red Sox are willing to eat the rest of his deal and maybe take a token minor leaguer back or a really nice pen.
Game 90, Mariners at Indians
Felix Day!!!!
Thursday Night in the Minors
Last night turned out to be a rather eventful one in the minors, and since the wrap won’t launch until Monday, here’s a midweek update:
• Matt Tuiasosopo is back in Tacoma, playing third, after a rehab stint that had him hitting .407.500/.519 in Peoria. He was 1-for-5 with a double, a run scored, and a RBI last night and played the whole game on the field, something that he still hasn’t done yet with great frequency. We should hold off right now to avoid undue pressure, but if he’s ready in a couple weeks, put him into consideration.
• In the Midwest League, 6th-round pick Shaver Hansen debuted, playing shortstop and third and getting a double in three at-bats. He’s probably a second baseman long-term. Poythress and Seager may be joining him sooner or later, but there are no updates on those talks, they’re just “progressingâ€.
• Trevor Coleman, the switch-hitting catcher the Mariners drafted in the 9th-round, already debuted in Everett on Sunday, but more help is on the way, as the Everett Herald says that 4th-round pick OF James Jones and 13th-round pick OF Matt Cerione, both left-handers, will be joining the team shortly.
• Fans in Pulaski got to see the debut of supplemental rounder C Steve Baron, who scored two runs despite only reaching safely once via a walk. He was the designated hitter, but he’ll be behind the plate shortly.
• Finally, in Peoria, Alex Cintron got two plate appearances, doubling and drawing a walk.