Anticipating Snell
With the team’s playoff chances down the drain, we now get reacquainted with the age old Seattle summer tradition – finding interest in things outside of wins and losses. Over the past few years, we’ve gotten pretty good at learning how to enjoy a ballgame without being overly invested in the final result. If they win, great, but even if they don’t, at least Young Guy X or New Pitch Y looked good.
So, we’re probably all a little extra excited for Ian Snell’s Mariner debut tonight. Even if they lose, at least we’ll have something besides a flyball lefty on the mound for once. So, what should we look for from Snell?
For starters, he has a fairly typical three pitch repertoire. He throws a four seam fastball at 89-93, and he pitches up in the zone with it, leading to a decent amount of swinging strikes and fly balls. He has a slider that’s 80-85 and is a weapon against right-handed bats, and has traditionally been his best pitch. He also throws an 82-84 MPH change-up that could use some work against left-handed hitters, who have hit him well over his career.
Looking at his walk rates, you’d think command was a big problem for Snell, but for the most part, it’s not. He can spot his pitches fairly well, and repeats his delivery without much effort. His walk problems come from a lack of an out pitch against lefties. Since his change is below average and his slider dives into their wheelhouse, he’s left to nibble with his fastball. That’s why he has a career 13% BB% against LH batters and only 7% against RH hitters.
In some ways, the best way to think of Snell is like Brandon Morrow with less velocity. The strengths and weaknesses are similar, and like Morrow, the key for Snell will be to get his secondary stuff up to the point where he can throw it in the strike zone with confidence. The Rangers have some good LH bats and the ball is obviously traveling well in Texas right now, so try not to judge Snell by his results tonight.
The key will be to watch the change-up against lefties. That’s going to be the pitch that makes or breaks him as a starting pitcher, and if he can use it effectively tonight, it’s a great sign for the future.
Dude struck out 17 in 7 innings and 13 in a row did I read that here or somewhere? Is it weird that if things continue to go this well I wanna name a child after Jack Z? Also, the mobile site is perfect great job!
Mobile site?
I must have missed that. I’m using VZ web and it looks pretty good just with the regular site.
Is Snell’s slider not good enough to throw low and inside to lefties?
I guess we’ll see tonight.
He did that in one of his AAA starts, yes.
The snell pickup was nice…between morrow and snell there will be at least one other non lefty in the rotation (hopefully both) freeing up some money to try and improve the offense. The run prevention hasn’t been the problem, and with some more runs on the board this team would be awesome to watch
And I say non lefty because all our lefties seem like back of the rotation guys. Snell and morrow at least have the stuff to be front end guys if they ever put it all together
While the playoff chances aren’t exactly looking extremely positive, I’d hardly say they’re “down the drain”. How many teams that have been “out of the running” have made even more surprising comebacks, Mariners included? I mean, its gonna be an extremely tough road, but hardly impossible. I guess its just the mentality of being a fan of something and having an internet connection; you’re usually negative. I’ve seen it in a ton of branches of entertainment.
He was interviewed on FSN yesterday and I thought he came across as a nice kid with a good attitude. Maybe a lot of his problems were due to being in Pittsburgh with a terrible FO that criticized him publically. He said the coaches, players, everybody in Seattle had been really nice and welcoming to him. He sounded like he was VERY happy to be here.
I really like the new regime and atmosphere that’s been generated this year. I hope that will continue. I think Griffey and Sweeney have been invaluable in that regard.
Or it could be that Dave doesn’t think a 2% shot at making the playoffs is worth getting worked up about.
He’s not being negative, he’s being realistic. The season is toast.
While the playoff chances aren’t exactly looking extremely positive, I’d hardly say they’re “down the drainâ€.
The M’s have about the same chance of making the playoffs as the New York Mets, Houston Astros, Pittsburgh Pirates, and Toronto Blue Jays.
How many teams that have been “out of the running†have made even more surprising comebacks, Mariners included?
Almost none. There’s 1995… and there’s 1995.
I guess its just the mentality of being a fan of something and having an internet connection; you’re usually negative. I’ve seen it in a ton of branches of entertainment.
You don’t have the first clue what you’re talking about. For the last year, we’ve been in favor of practically everything the M’s have done. We were the ones convincing people that this team wasn’t terrible before the season started. We were the ones explaining to everyone how awesome the Putz trade was when everyone else was against it. We were the ones explaining why the pickups of guys like Aardsma and Branyan and Endy Chavez exemplified how the new front office had transformed the team into one of the best run in baseball.
I get that you’re probably new, but you couldn’t be more wrong. You’d do well to read more and post less until you get a better handle on what’s what around here.
One thing that we all got wrong this spring was that we thought that the Angels wouldn’t be as good as they are now. If they were on pace to win 85 or 90 games like we were predicting, we would still be in a playoff race right now. If we were playing in the AL Central, we would be fine now also. Why did the Angles have to get so hot!? Why, oh, why!?!?
Most observers thought that the LAA would turn it on as they got healthy through the season. Everyone here will root for M’s to win but it is not negative to accept the high probabilty of this season sdjusting into an opportunity to make plans for next season.
Last night I was amused listening to yet another fan tell me that “Texas is due for their usual August slide”. It seems to me, as Dave alluded to about the Seattle summer “tradition”, that the Mariners are no strangers to performing a certain euphemism regarding monkeys and footballs come the dog days of summer.
Also the idea (and I’m reminded of this due to the Snell four seam description) that Brandom Morrow has some kind of ungodly arm because he can throw a 98 mph four seam, straight fastball high in the zone baffles me. I realize everyone likes the juggs gun but how is 98 above the belt fastball somehow rarified air, when a 93-94 two seamer with some movement below the knees is a superior pitch?
Yes. Mobile site working great. My iPhone thanks you.
Yankees think M’s undersold Jarrod Washburn: From NY Post:
[ARGH USE THE LINK BUTTON HERE WE FIX BLEAGH]
“Privately, the Yankees were astounded at the seemingly underwhelming return Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik got for Jarrod Washburn (second-tier pitching prospects Luke French and Mauricio Robles) – especially after he’d pulled off such a coup earlier in the week by fetching shortstop Jack Wilson and former 14-game winner Ian Snell out of the Pittsburgh Pirates’ firesale for light-hitting shortstop Ronny Cedeno, defensively challenged catcher/first base prospect Jeff Clement and three low-level pitching prospects. The Yankees thought they could have given Seattle a better package for Washburn, who’s a free agent after the season, but Zduriencik kept asking for top-tier prospects such as outfielder Austin Jackson.”
So Yanks think the Jack Wilson trade was good but the Jarrod Washburn trade is bad, exactly opposite to what this site think. I wonder that’s what Cashman’s scouts really think.
If the Yankees thought that Jared Washburn was so wonderful, they certainly could have offered the M’s something better than the Tigers did. Every team must have known he was on the market, Yankees included.
The fact that they didn’t, leads me to think they are just blowing smoke. Or trying to look good to their fans.
Ian Snell?
Shannon Drayer has a nice piece about both Snell and French. Like everybody else, they’re Griffey fans, but French was actually a Mariners fan as a kid. Here’s hoping he can pitch for them the way he imagined in his childhood. Snell, meanwhile, reminds her of Bobby Madritch, which to me is equal parts terrifying and cool.
Well, first the M’s have to go on a winning streak, which they’ve been having trouble doing. And the flip side of a crazy comeback is an epic collapse, and there aren’t many of those either. In fact in the Wild Card era only the 1995 Angels have choked that badly that late; given that the M’s already have one 8000-to-1 out-of-nowhere divisional win against them, how much chance do think there is of a second? The Angels’ record, which includes both their torrid July and their pathetic April, suggests 98 wins. Even if you assume the fall back to earth and play just .500 for the rest of the season they end up with 92 wins. To pass that suddenly (and unlikely) mediocre version of the Halos, the M’s would have to go 39-19, .672 — winning two of every three games for the rest of the season. Oh, and meanwhile the Rangers could get to those same 93 wins by going 35-25, or .583… which is just a in or two better than the pace they’re already on.
It’s not impossible, but it’s not worth talking about. If the M’s rip off a tear of seven wins in ten and the Angels and Rangers lose a bunch of games at the same time, well… we’ll have the discussion then. Meanwhile, back on planet earth, I still cheer for wins; I just stop looking at the standings.
Ignore the New York media. Right now they will be full of columnists killing the Yankees for not making any meaningful trades at the deadline, and being responded to by other columnists parroting front office rationalizations for why they failed to make any such trades.
via Drayer on Twitter:
then
ugh
The reports at the time claimed that the Yankees did inquire, and Zduriencik asked for top prospect Austin Jackson. They responded with some counter offer, and Zduriencik didn’t call them back. So the Yankees may figure that their counter-offer was better than what Detroit gave up (but then they would always assume that, since as far as they’re concerned anything that passes through Yankees fingers automatically acquires some kind of magical lustre). Or they may have expected some other team to give up a lot since Zduriencik was asking the moon from them (it’s possible Zduriencik’s response to them was basically an eff-you, and they’re too dense to figure it out). Or maybe they’re just spin, spin, spinning to placate the many fans who think they blew it by not getting something, anything, at the trade deadline (with that inaction in mind, imagine the outrage if Boston takes the division and somebody else takes the wild card, and New York is sitting out the postseason for a second year in a row).
And yeah, per Derek’s post after this one — that’s the Yankees version of the reports at the time.
But I do kind of like the idea of Zduriencik going “You know what, you’re the effing Yankees. If you really want him, you have to pay through the nose for him.”
Not that I disagree with the gist of the post, but:
my odds of winning the lottery don’t go down if I’ve already won the lottery assuming that I keep buying tickets.
My question is, given that we’ve acquired another pitcher since the 2010 roster post, and we’ve concluded that our new rotation is better than our 2008 rotation … and given that our needs from the 2010 roster post were 1B/DH/3B/SP where 1B/DH is usually cheap to fill … after signing Beltre, what’s the next move you’d make in the off-season? What if neither French nor Snell reach their upsides… do we need a #2 SP?
Holy crap! Over the last 3 years lefites are getting on base at a .380 clip against Snell. Yikes
“do we need a #2 SP”
Just curious…What is the min/max era to qualify as a #2 SP?
been reading this blog for a few months(just started posting, though) and hardly anything here is ‘realistic’. Everyone here complains when something doesn’t go exactly their way(pretty much every night when Wak announces the lineup).
And even though we most likely won’t make the playoffs, who cares? In the next two months, we only need to win 8 more games to improve upon last year’s record, which really, is all you can ask for when you have new management and a lot of new players.
Yeah, I know — independent events. That crossed my mind as I was writing it. But still. The baseball gods have already bestowed one 1995 upon this team; I’d be worried about the price on our souls if we got another anytime soon.
Not only does the team need a #2, they need to look at signing #1.
I’d also be thinking about what you want to do with Lopez. Maybe move him to 3rd and not re-sign Beltre, and go looking for a better / faster / thinner 2B option?
You’ve been reading USSM for a few months and you think everything’s unrealistic? Why are you here? Leave, save yourself. We’re infectious! Braaaaaaaiiinnnnnnssssssssss
I have a feeling you’re not going to last another few months, considering how badly you’re interpreting what you’re reading.
Ok, obviously the “everything” line was hyperbole, as there is quite a bit of great discussion here. I am here because I like to discuss the team I’ve been watching since the 2nd grade. Most baseball sites aren’t populated with too many M’s fans.
If I am interpreting things badly, I apologize. All I’m trying to say is, hey, let’s just watch the rest of the season,and take it for what it is. If by some miracle, we make it to the playoffs, great. The odds are highly against us, and I understand that, so we most likely won’t. But I don’t really see the need for all the doom and gloom every day. Just my very unpopular opinion.
How is this post doom and gloom? The entire point was to show people things to look for in the new guy, so that you can more intelligently watch tonight’s game…
Apparently being reminded of the fact that we’re not likely to be playing meaningful games next year is unrealistic doom and gloom.
I apologise if my portrayal of your opinion was unrealistic
It was gloomy.
alright, on a less gloomy note…
I couldn’t watch the game. Snell’s numbers tonight look pretty good to me, ‘specially in that park. Anybody got some ‘somewhat realistic’ analysis of his outing tonight? How’s the changeup? Did he throw it to lefties?
The slider’s niiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiice
The change was not very good. The movement’s okay, but his command of it sucks.
His command wasn’t completely where it probably should be, and it wasn’t helped by the fact that strikes were called less frequently than they should have, thanks to another night of questionable home plate umping.