The SP Depth Chart
With Washburn traded and Bedard rehabbing, people like to describe the M’s rotation as Felix and a bunch of question marks. Which is mostly true – the Mariners don’t really have anyone besides Felix who you feel totally comfortable handing the ball to every five days. But, what the Mariners do have is a pretty remarkable amount of depth. Here’s the current depth chart for starting pitching that will head to spring training next year looking for a spot in the rotation:
1. Felix Hernandez
2. Ryan Rowland-Smith
3. Ian Snell
4. Brandon Morrow
5. Carlos Silva
6. Doug Fister
7. Luke French
8. Jason Vargas
9. Garrett Olson
10. Chris Jakubauskas
That doesn’t count guys like Nick Hill or Ryan Feierabend who will probably begin next year in Tacoma but could push themselves into the picture with a strong spring. Toss them in, and you could potentially have 12 guys in Peoria next year who harbor some hope of breaking camp with a spot in the starting rotation. Twelve!
One of the old stat-head cliches is that the best way to find a good starting pitcher is to collect 10 of them and let them fight it out. That’s basically what the M’s have done, stockpiling arms over the last year to give them an inventory of guys to pick from. Besides Felix, each of them has a pretty obvious flaw, but the fact that the M’s don’t have to count on any one of these guys next year is a pretty big bonus. They have options, and while they may not be household names, it’s a big advantage to have a back-up plan for your back-up plan.
Well, right now the team’s second in the league in run prevention… and dead last in scoring runs. I’d say improving to the middle of the pack in offense by adding ~a run scored a game would be considerably easier than taking a run a game off pitching and defense that’s among the league-leaders.
Agree that scoring more runs is a must. You can argue the defensive contribution to run prevention should remain constant for next year but wouldn’t you agree that taking out Washburn and Bedard’s results and replacing them with French and Snell will likely make us worse in run prevention?
I still cannot see how this rotation is going to be anything but mediocre. We all agree Felix is just fantastic, that every fifth day is really enjoyable. Out of the eleven other suitors I see a couple of guys that can pitch to either handed batters with out much tap dancing, RRS and Snell. The others have some pretty weighted splits. I really do not consider Vargas and Olson starters along with Silva.
Ok yes, The Mariners are building. With their defense, run prevention is vastly improved. We can use a less effective starter and still be competitive. But I digress, That will not win a division title or a World Series. And it will continue to tax your bullpen making it musical chairs constantly. Mark Lowe is great, he has developed nicely and will continue. Why Blow him up?
Everyone likes to rosterbate, it seems a fair conclusion that the offense is number one this winter. I would not count on Branyan giving us some discount because Jak showed him some love and a shot. This team will need atleast three pieces this winter. DH, 1B, 2B. We are still a couple off years out to really make noise. But considering our prospects last year we have come lightyears… I would take Figgins in a NY minute!
My Rotation guess is
Felix
RRS
Snell
French
Silva/Morrow
All I want this winter is a real DH! 285/340/550
Actually, no one here likes to rosterbate. We also like to back up our opinions with facts, which isn’t something you’ve showed yourself to be much of a fan of.
As long as you keep spewing useless cliches, people are going to gloss over your comments.
Agree that scoring more runs is a must. You can argue the defensive contribution to run prevention should remain constant for next year but wouldn’t you agree that taking out Washburn and Bedard’s results and replacing them with French and Snell will likely make us worse in run prevention?
Yeah, but two things:
– Jarrod Washburn is still Jarrod Washburn, and downgrading to RRS/French isn’t a huge loss, and,
– Bedard pitched a total of 83 innings. Great innings when he could go out, but only 83 of them.
I am not sold that an entire season of Snell/RRS/Morrow/Silva/etc. (assuming two of them stay healthy and perform at a decent level) is that far behind a combo of (Washburn+Bedard when his labrum isn’t in tatters+whoever replaces him). If THREE of them were pretty good (say, RRS/Silva/Snell, just for fun), they’d definitely be better.
As for “we’re a couple years away”: the Mariners immediately preceded their 1995 and 2000 playoff teams with sub-.500 teams. The list of teams jumping from below-.500 to the playoffs is very, very long. It is silly to think the 2010 Mariners can’t do this. This isn’t to say they WILL, but we’re not talking about turning a 60-ish win roster into a contender, which is a monumentally harder feat than turning a team that’s close to .500 into a contender.
I guess I’m quality over quantity guy because that list gives me heartburn other than Felix.
Umm-hmm! Except for FELIX, it looks like the largest collection of AAAA starting pitchers in captivity.