Diamond Club?
Due to one of our awesome readers, I’m now the proud owner of two diamond club seats to Monday night’s game against the White Sox, which is remarkably generous of said reader. However, the main reason for the trip to Seattle (besides the whole USSM Goes To Safeco thing on Saturday) is for Amy and I to get to spend time with my parents, who we haven’t seen since the wedding last year. So, if possible, we’d love to take them along as well.
So, I’m just throwing this out there – if anyone else has a pair of Diamond Club seats that you’re not planning on using Monday night, drop us a line.
Oh, and just to make this somewhat Mariner related and so it doesn’t seem quite as shameful, Ichiro is something else, eh?
Game 106, Mariners at Royals
Happy Beltre Day! I like to think of the Beltre-less period as a bad dream we have just woken from. Bunt to the third-base side, Royals! Do it!
5:05. I’m a little baffled by the FSN ads that try and hype this as a re-union/grudge match. Who cares that Jose Guillen is a Royal now? Or Willie Bloomquist? Betancourt? Those guys are terrible. Meche is the only interesting discussion to be had, and we’re not going to see him. Is there really an audience out there who get riled up over this stuff? Or, more likely, was this the only storyline they could think of?
Anyway. Someone apparently spotted Kenji after seeing his face on a milk carton, because he’s in the lineup tonight. Yayyy.
2009 Int’l Signings Announced
Ryan Divish got a neat scoop on the international signings made by the Mariners this period. The brief list goes like this, but additional comments can be found over there from our man Engle.
From Colombia:
IF Diego MinaFrom the Dominican Republic:
OF Guillermo Pimentel
OF Alfredo MoralesFrom Korea:
C Ji-Man Choi (gee-mon CHOY)
RHP Seon-Gi Kim (sun key KIM)From Panama:
RHP Waldy AlvarezFrom Venezuela:
3B Andres Brito
OF Alexy Palma
RHP Julian Alvarado
RHP Daniel Mata
I’m going to put my comments after the jump, as not everyone goes nuts over this stuff like I do.
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Jack Hannahan, Middle Infielder
Adrian Beltre is set to come off the disabled list and join the team in Kansas City today. That means that the M’s are going to have to send out one of their infielders, and since Jack Hannahan has options left, he’s the obvious candidate. Chris Woodward is certainly not as good as Hannahan, but he offers Wak experience at shortstop, and coupled with Hannahan’s ability to go to Triple-A for a month, it makes this a fairly easy call.
However, the M’s have Matt Tuiasosopo playing third base regularly down in Tacoma, and after missing most of the season due to an elbow injury, he needs the reps over there. They could play him at first base, but that’s currently being manned by Mike Carp, Brad Nelson, and Bryan LaHair, so it’s a little crowded as well. So, where should Hannahan play in Tacoma while waiting for the rosters to expand in September?
I vote for second base and shortstop. Hannahan has been extremely impressive defensively at third base, showing off terrific range at the hot corner. UZR agrees with what we’ve seen, too – he’s +5 runs in just 151 inning as a Mariner, which is a +38.2 UZR/150 pace. His career UZR at third base is +22.8 in 1,831 innings, which works out to about +16.5 runs over a full season. For comparison, his defensive numbers are almost exactly a match to Evan Longria. Hannahan can really pick it at third.
Last winter, I did a couple different posts showing that players who can play third base are quite likely to be able to play second base as well. There’s very little shift in defensive performance if a player moves from 2nd to 3rd or vice versa, suggesting that the two positions are fairly equal in terms of relative defensive ability and importance.
We can infer, from Hannahan’s defensive excellence at third base, that he should be able to be above average defensively at second base as well. Not surprisingly, he actually has a decent amount of experience there, having played 97 games at second base in Triple-A in 2006 and 2007. Getting him work at second base down in Tacoma would give him the chance to get re-adjusted to turning the double play and getting the middle infielder’s footwork down, and give the M’s more flexibility in how to use him when he comes back to the majors.
But I wouldn’t stop at using him at second base. I’m fairly sure he could play there without any real problems. His defensive skills make that an easy move. I’d challenge him a bit by sticking him at shortstop as well, and taking some time to evaluate whether or not he has the range to stick at the most demanding defensive position on the field. I think he just might.
It’s not as crazy as it might sound. Marco Scutaro was a 2B/3B when he came up through the minors – the A’s didn’t shift him to shortstop until he was 29. Ryan Theriot spent most of his time playing second base in the high minors and got to the big leagues as a 2B, but moved over to shortstop when the Cubs had a need and has solidified himself there. Neither of these guys are flashy, Omar Vizquel type defenders, but they were solid fundamentally and had enough range to convince their teams to let them slide over, and it’s worked out exceedingly well.
Hannahan has that kind of ability, I think, and I’d like to see the M’s evaluate his ability to play shortstop. As you know, the M’s have nothing in terms of depth of middle infield in the upper minors, and they’re running out a bad player if either Wilson or Lopez get hurt. If Hannahan shows he can handle the middle infield, he just got a lot more valuable to the M’s.
As a left-handed bat with patience and gap power, Hannahan is a significantly better hitter than your typical reserve infielder. If the M’s grow him into a guy who can cover all four infield spots, they could have a left-handed Mark DeRosa, the kind of versatile play-everywhere-and-hit guy that managers dream about and makes the team quite a bit better. As a super-reserve, Hannahan would become one of the better bench players in the game, and be a significant asset to the 2010 Mariners squad.
The M’s have an opportunity here, with Beltre’s return buying them some time to experiment in Tacoma. Send Hannahan down and try him out at 2B/SS. If you like what you see, you’ve just added another real nice piece to the 2010 team.
Update: Or, they could just keep Hannahan around as the team’s only backup infielder and have him work on his 2B/SS skills at the big league level. Which is apparently the plan.
Baseball for an Off Day
It is another one of those lazy Monday off days where there is much to think about and to little to see. Oh, of course, one could watch other teams go at it (I hear Texas and Oakland are scheduled for later), but there are other alternatives as well.
In Clinton right now, the Lumberkings are sending right-hander Kenn Kasparek, who is among the league leaders in many categories, to face Burlington, with Royals prospect Tim Melville taking the mound for them in what could turn out to be a pitcher’s duel.
Alternatively, if you’re in the seven o’clock habit, you could listen to Mike Curto call the Tacoma Rainiers game as Brandon Morrow goes up against Fresno’s Joe Martinez. Thrill-seekers can also tune into Pat Dillon and the Everett Aquasox, with right-hander Luke Burnett pitted against Boise’s Jonathan Nagel. Boise has drawn the least amount of walks in the league at 127, while Burnett has given up the most with thirty.
MiLB.com Gameday Audio. And you’re welcome.
USSM Goes To Safeco Reminder
For those of you who were able to buy tickets to our USSM event at Safeco this Saturday before they sold out, we’re looking forward to seeing you guys in six days. Should be a fun time. The pre-game event will start at 5:15 pm, but I’d suggest being outside the home plate entrance of Safeco Field closer to 5:00 pm. There will be a sign located just north of the home plate entrance showing where you will enter to get access to the Ellis Pavilion, which is where the pregame Q&A will be held.
You will, of course, need your ticket to get into the stadium through that entrance. Remember, you must bring the tickets that you bought through the site and were emailed to you as a PDF – you should see the special USSMariner marking on them, which will allow you entrance into the Q&A. Without those, we won’t be able to let you into the pre-game event, as we are going to have a full house.
After the Q&A, we’ll all wander up to our seats to enjoy the game against the Rays. Should be a fun time.
If you purchased tickets to the event and now will not be able to attend, please leave a note in the comments thread below with ways for people to get a hold of you. There is definite interest from a good number of people who weren’t able to buy the tickets before we sold out, so you won’t have any trouble unloading them, and you’ll help someone else attend as well.
See you guys on Saturday.
The 2010 Team, Quantified
After the first trade last week, I put up a post looking at the projected 2010 roster, given players under team control for next year, and the amount of payroll it would cost to put that team together. Based on that projection, we saw that the M’s would have to spend around $78 million or so to field that particular roster, which would give them a little less than $20 million to play with this winter, assuming the budget holds something close to constant.
One thing we didn’t get into that much was just how good that team would be – it certainly looks unimpressive on paper, after all. And today, Art Thiel put in his two cents on the matter, essentially laying out his reasons for why next year’s team may be worse than the current version.
I think he’s wrong, and here’s why – the continuing reliance on cliched definitions of certain types of players significantly underrates the kind of team the Mariners have built. You know the lingo by now – “big bat”, “innings eater”, “proven commodity”, “solid performer” – this is how baseball players are still described in some circles. I’m not trying to pick on Thiel here, whose work I genuinely like, but sentences like this one…
The upside is intriguing. But after Hernandez, the group also could end up being just a bunch of back-of-the-rotation guys.
… would also describe the Philadelphia Phillies rotation last year (Hamels and fluff), and they won the World Series. These vague categorizations of contributions often do more to hide the actual value of players than reveal it.
So, let’s get away from cliches, and actually look at what the 2010 Mariners, as currently assembled, can actually contribute, based on some back-of-the-envelope projections of the guys that the team already has.
That roster adds up to something like +29 wins above replacement, and remember, a replacement level team would be expected to win ~50 games over a full season. So, as hard as it may be to believe based on cliches about their player types, that team would project out to something like a 79-83 club, despite the fact that its filled with “back end starters”, “unproven youngsters”, and a bunch of “glove-first” position players.
You can quibble with some of the projections if you want, but not enough to get below ~75 wins. That’s really the floor of what you’d be looking at for a projection for the 2010 Mariners, as they stand right now, if you were fairly pessimistic about the talent currently in the organization.
And remember, we’ve already noted that the M’s should have about $15 to $20 million to spend on new player acquisitions this winter. The going rate for wins in free agency is between $4-$5 million per win, so even if Jack wasn’t a GM good at finding undervalued assets for pennies on the dollar, the room in the budget should be good for another 3-5 wins.
For instance, the M’s have the cash to bring back Beltre and Branyan, which would make Hannahan a quality reserve and put Nelson back in Tacoma. That’s probably a +4 win upgrade, just by bringing back those two. That 79 win team would then be an 83 win team, and that’s if those were the only moves the M’s made all winter. What if the M’s were able to squeeze a guy like Jim Thome or Carlos Delgado in along with Beltre/Branyan? Now, you’re looking at something more like an 85 win team.
As long as the M’s don’t take the $20 million or so they’ll have available this winter and light it on fire, the expectation for 2010 should be that the Mariners will be a better than .500 club. If you think the organization is capable of improving the roster by making moves that help the team without really increasing the payroll as well (like they did with Aardsma/Gutierrez/Branyan last winter), then you’re probably looking at a potential 87 or 88 win team.
In other words, the 2010 Mariners have a very real chance of being a contending club. It isn’t a finished product, but the idea that the team can’t win because Silva and Johjima are on the books for $20 million next year is a fallacy. Yes, Bill Bavasi left the organization in bad shape… but Zduriencik and crew have done astonishingly good work in picking up the pieces and putting the M’s back on the path to winning baseball.
They’re further down that path than folks like Thiel realize. The 2009 Mariners are okay – the 2010 Mariners should be even better.
Minor League Wrap (7/27-8/2/09)
I don’t have much of an intro going as I spent most of Sunday at CitiField, about two hours of which was in rain delay. It was worth it for the field level tickets though, which a friend of mine scored. If you ever happen to be in that part of the country, I’d recommend giving it a look. It’s cheaper than Yankees Stadium, obviously, and plays better too, if you can get past the issue of planes taking off at LaGuardia every few minutes.
To the jump!
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Game 105, Mariners at Rangers
Get excited!
RF-L Ichiro!
1B-L Branyan
2B-R Lopez
DH-L Griffey
3B-L Hannahan
SS-R Wilson
CF-L Langerhans
C-R Bloomquist II: The Catchinator
LF-L Saunders
2B-R Omar
3B-R Young
DH-L Murphy
LF-R Byrd
1B-L Blalock
RF-R Cruz
CF-L Hamilton
C-B Saltalamacchia
SS-R Andrus
The Yankees and lying and the Yankees lying
Hi!
Since Washburn was traded (wooooo) many of you fine readers have decided, in relevant threads or not, to post links to stories coming out of the New York media machine (or national baseball writers) about how the Mariners were willing to trade Washburn to the Yankees but they asked for Joba and Cano and $90,000,000 in small non-sequential used bills or what-the-hell-ever.
Please stop. Here’s what’s going on: there are 15 billion trillion people who cover the Yankees, and the Yankees use this hive mind to promote themselves. This is why every Yankee prospect gets hyped to the skies until they’re traded and discovered to be players with all the baseball talent of an ox and the work ethic of Yuni. Why their crappy-ass stadium before this one was revered as the House that Ruth Built though it wasn’t, and as a hallowed baseball treasure until it had to be torn down and rebuilt for the good of all humanity.
So allllllll of these various stories about the M’s having only one phone call, or having many phone calls, asking for Joba or Joba and Hughes or Austin Jackson, and not being willing to talk sense, they’re bunk. Hokum. They’re lies. Liiiiiiiiieeeeeeeeesssssssssssss.
The Yankees want the story out there that they tried to get Washburn but the M’s were unreasonable. Then later, if it turns out a veteran left-handed starter was the difference between making the playoffs and not, or winning the World Series or not, they’re covered. “We wanted to get one, but Seattle’s crazy!” they can say, and it’ll be lapped up by that vast media mind and injected directly into the skull of every Yankee fan, who will scowl and curse the Mariners for their unreasonable demands.
The M’s front office leaks nothing. Like zippo. They’re possibly the tightest-lipped bunch of people in baseball. But they’re smart. Does it really seem likely to anyone that the team called New York, asked for Joba and Hughes, was refused, and then instead of trying to work something else out or see what New York would offer, just hung up, called Detroit, and made a much worse deal? Or that they repeated the demands a couple times first? Why in the world would they do that? Who seriously believes that that’s how any major league front office enters negotiations heading towards the trade deadline?
Please, stop posting this garbage. You’re just helping them. Don’t help the Yankees.