Anticipating Snell
With the team’s playoff chances down the drain, we now get reacquainted with the age old Seattle summer tradition – finding interest in things outside of wins and losses. Over the past few years, we’ve gotten pretty good at learning how to enjoy a ballgame without being overly invested in the final result. If they win, great, but even if they don’t, at least Young Guy X or New Pitch Y looked good.
So, we’re probably all a little extra excited for Ian Snell’s Mariner debut tonight. Even if they lose, at least we’ll have something besides a flyball lefty on the mound for once. So, what should we look for from Snell?
For starters, he has a fairly typical three pitch repertoire. He throws a four seam fastball at 89-93, and he pitches up in the zone with it, leading to a decent amount of swinging strikes and fly balls. He has a slider that’s 80-85 and is a weapon against right-handed bats, and has traditionally been his best pitch. He also throws an 82-84 MPH change-up that could use some work against left-handed hitters, who have hit him well over his career.
Looking at his walk rates, you’d think command was a big problem for Snell, but for the most part, it’s not. He can spot his pitches fairly well, and repeats his delivery without much effort. His walk problems come from a lack of an out pitch against lefties. Since his change is below average and his slider dives into their wheelhouse, he’s left to nibble with his fastball. That’s why he has a career 13% BB% against LH batters and only 7% against RH hitters.
In some ways, the best way to think of Snell is like Brandon Morrow with less velocity. The strengths and weaknesses are similar, and like Morrow, the key for Snell will be to get his secondary stuff up to the point where he can throw it in the strike zone with confidence. The Rangers have some good LH bats and the ball is obviously traveling well in Texas right now, so try not to judge Snell by his results tonight.
The key will be to watch the change-up against lefties. That’s going to be the pitch that makes or breaks him as a starting pitcher, and if he can use it effectively tonight, it’s a great sign for the future.
Game 104, Mariners at Rangers
Happy Felix Day! Hernandez v. Hunter, 5:05.
RF-L Ichiro
1B-L Branyan
2B-R Lopez
DH-L Griffey
CF-R Gutierrez
3B-L Hannahan
SS-R Wilson
LF-L Langerhans
C-R Johnson
Minor changes in batting order don’t matter that much, but the one thing that does is you want your best hitters at the top (so they bat more often) and your worst hitters at the bottom. You could just rank your hitters that way, use it as your lineup order, and hardly go wrong.
With that in mind, this is the first time all year that Rob Johnson has batted ninth. He’s batted as high as sixth six times.
Shelton gets DFAd
In one sense, Chris Shelton is freed.
In another, more real sense, it’s inexplicable why Mike Sweeney is taking a roster spot while Shelton is punted.
Rotation comparison
The rotation that started 2008, with salaries:
Erik Bedard $7,000,000
Felix Hernandez $540,000
Carlos Silva $12,000,000
Jarrod Washburn $9,850,000
Miguel Batista, $9,000,000
I’m counting Silva’s signing bonus in the year he signed, if you’re wondering, since the three free agents all had contracts with a low(er) first-year salary number, then mostly level for the remaining years.
The current rotation, with salaries:
Felix Hernandez $3,800,000
Ian Snell $3,000,000
Ryan Rowland-Smith $420,000
Luke French $400,000
Jason Vargas $405,000
In case you need another illustration of why spending money on free agent pitchers is generally a bad idea – yes, the rotation now costs less combined than any of Silva, Batista, or Washburn did individually, and will perform just as well if not better. You wouldn’t equal any of their salaries even if you tack on Garrett Olson and Brandon Morrow to make fill-in starts as necessary. That’s a lot of money left over that can go toward (another bat/Ackley’s signing bonus/a long-term contract for Felix/resigning Beltre) whatever good use Zduriencik finds for it. Unfortunately, we’re still paying Silva and Batista. No, we shouldn’t try to sign Washburn again after the season.