Game 134, Angels at Mariners
Day game for Felix Day!
Jose Lopez is at first base. Last year, when he was shifted over to first, it was on the one hand a relief from the agony of watching Sexson or the futility that was Miguel Cairo. On the other hand, it was terrifying to think that the front office might be seriously thinking of Lopez as the future at first base. That would have made him into a worthless asset, all so the team could try to fill a different hole instead, and at second base you don’t have Russ Branyans to easily plug in.
This year, I can handle Lopez at first base with equanimity. I know it’s not a glimpse of the future, just a temporary expedient. Next year I could see Lopez back at second, or replacing Beltre at third (less likely now given the other moves that have been made), or playing for another team altogether. Regardless of which it turns out to be, I have a lot more confidence that it will have happened because Zduriencik determined that was the best way to allocate his resources.
RF-L Ichiro
CF-R Gutierrez
1B-R Lopez
DH-R Sweeney
3B-R Beltre
UT-R Hall
SS-R J. Wilson (real helpful, I know)
C-R Johnson
LF-L Saunders
Not Trying To Be A Jerk
But just throwing this out there.
Doug Fister: 33 2/3 IP, 26 H, 12 R, 11 ER, 5 HR, 9 BB, 20 K
Jason Vargas*: 34 2/3 IP, 33 H, 11 R, 10 ER, 6 HR, 9 BB, 19 K
*Through his first six starts with the M’s this year.
I like Vargas, so this isn’t intended as a slam. These guys have good command and out-pitch change-ups, which makes up for the weak fastballs that they toss up there. But, while Fister’s emergence is certainly encouraging, just remember that we’ve already seen this act once this year. Vargas’ season had a very similar beginning, and just a few months later he was toiling in Triple-A again.
Pitchers are inconsistent. They have good runs and bad runs. Often times, we overreact to these runs, especially when they come as a first impression. But, as I argued on FanGraphs about John Smoltz, we really can’t extrapolate anything at all from how a pitcher performs over 40 innings. We can say stuff about how they pitched during that time frame, but trying to base a future projection off of such a limited sample is nutty.
Enjoy watching Fister buckle hitters with his change-up. Just don’t be shocked if he gets bombed before the year ends. It’s the nature of pitchers – they’re remarkably inconsistent and shouldn’t be counted on.
Game 133, Angels at Mariners
Santana v Fister. Nice of the weather to clear in time, too.
Pelekoudas quits
Mike Carp
With rosters expanding today, the M’s are widely expected to bring Mike Carp up from Tacoma and give him some playing time at first base in Russ Branyan’s absence. Because of Carp’s strong spring and beginning to the year in Triple-A, he got a lot of attention as the organization’s first baseman of the future, and we even got to see him get a few hacks in the big leagues during the summer. I’d imagine most fans have a pretty positive impression of Carp’s abilities – perhaps too positive, in fact.
Let’s start with the facts – Carp is a 23-year-old with a good approach at the plate but average power at best, and he’s not a particularly good athlete or defender. We like on base percentage as much as anyone, but his overall package of physical skills isn’t that exciting. Power isn’t absolutely necessary to be a good player, as guys like Sean Casey and Mark Grace had nice careers with the kind of gap power that Carp has demonstrated, but they were really good defensive players with extraordinary hand-eye coordination. That’s not Carp.
For his minor league career, he’s struck out in about 20% of his plate appearances. Part of that is because he’s willing to work counts and lay off marginal pitches on the fringes of the strike zone, but a bigger part is that his swing isn’t conducive to covering the entire plate. He doesn’t lack big time power because he’s got a level swing that is spraying line drives all over the field – he lacks big time power because he doesn’t have a particularly quick bat.
Even as a guy who will walk regularly, you have to either make a lot of contact or hit for power to be a good hitter. Carp doesn’t really excel at either. His biggest strength at the plate is his pitch recognition, but as a first baseman, he’s going to have to do more than draw walks to earn his spot in the line-up.
Carp is kind of in the Adam LaRoche model of first base prospects, offering enough skills to suggest he’ll have a big league career but lacking some key components to be the kind of guy you want to build around. He’s had some decent years, but for his career, he’s averaged about +1.5 wins per season, a bit below average for a major league regular.
That’s kind of what you should expect from Carp over the next five or six years. .270/.350/.440 with below average defense at first base makes him a major league player, but not a guy that should be counted on as a big part of the franchise’s future. If he gets hot and tears the cover off the ball in September, that will be nice to help the team win some games down the stretch, but don’t go penciling him in for a spot on the team next year just yet. The M’s need to get more production from their 1B/DH combo next year, and Carp probably isn’t the answer.