Sorry, Jason, We Don’t Want You
Over the last few years, I’ve done an off-season series called “free agent land mines”, where I laid out players to avoid giving large contracts to who just weren’t going to be worth it. Because it was just that kind of organization, the M’s kept picking guys off the list and targeting them for acquisition, throwing big money at guys like Jarrod Washburn and Carlos Silva. Thank God those days are gone.
With a new regime in place that actually knows how to build a baseball team, I don’t really feel compelled to do a land mine post this year. This front office knows how to evaluate talent, and I have no fear that they’re going to go toss a bunch of money on a long term deal at an overrated aging veteran who has some mythical quality they think they need. A new day, a new way, and all that.
However, I did want to single out one guy whose name keeps popping up for a couple of reasons – the main one being that he’s local and still lives in the area. That he can hit is a nice bonus, since the M’s were last in the league in offense and all that, and for some people, the recipe of good hitter + from Seattle = guy we should be interested in. However, it’s a bad idea in a lot of ways. No matter how many people try to convince you otherwise, just say no to Jason Bay.
He’s 31 years old, right-handed, and not really much an outfielder anymore. He has classic old player skills. In fact, he’s eerily reminiscent to some other free agent the M’s blew a lot of money on.
Bay, 2009: .267/.384/.537, 15% BB%, 30% K%, .269 ISO, -13.9 UZR, +3.4 wins
Sexson, 2003: .272/.379/.548, 14% BB%, 25% K%, .276 ISO, -9.6 UZR, +3.9 wins
The numbers are from Sexson’s last healthy season before the M’s signed him – you’ll recall that he missed most of his contract year with a shoulder problem, but then went right back to being the player he was before the injury. Interestingly, Sexson was actually headed into his age 29 season when the M’s signed him, so Bay’s actually even further into his decline phase than Richie was. Richie made better contact than Bay does, if you can believe that. Their power levels were similar, and they both offset the low batting averages by drawing a bunch of walks.
In terms of skillsets, they’re basically the same player – quality (but aging) power hitters who don’t fit the park and play defense like a DH. These are the types of players that make the worst free agent signings. Power is overvalued in the market, while defense is undervalued, so sluggers almost always get paid more than they’re worth. Toss in the fact that this skillset doesn’t age well, and you have a recipe for disaster.
Even setting aside the presence of players like Michael Saunders (and, to a lesser extent, Dustin Ackley), the Mariners should have absolutely no interest in Jason Bay. He might be interested in playing closer to home, but that’s just too bad – I wouldn’t touch him with a ten foot pole.
Some team is going to give him a hefty contract this winter. Thankfully, it’s not going to be the Mariners. After making a huge mistake on this player type five years ago, the M’s aren’t going to do that again.
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Matsui = Doesn’t have a good rapport with Ichiro
Anderson = On the decline of his career and had an OBP twenty points lower than Junior’s last year.
Delgado = Eeeeeh, maybe. You just don’t know if he’s done after a year where he’s plagued by injuries at 37 years old or not.
Thome is your best option of the four BY FAR. Unless he feels he only has one year left and wants to spend it in Cleveland or some team that’s a little closer to the World Series than we are right now.
Even though we could definitely play the “what-if” game all day long wondering how many more wins against Anaheim and Texas could we have gotten this year if we had Ibanez in our lineup as DH and another big bopper after that and what kind of difference it could have made. . .
But anyways, I digress.
If you want a DH for ONE YEAR. Get Thome (not Griffey) as your main guy.
Last year = 2009
Fair enough, but I guess I was looking for a suggestion of someone else? I dunno.
If the M’s direction is to get Carp and/or LaHair playing time at 1B in the hopes that one of them steps up and shows something better than replacement value, then the best available FA option for DH might be Branyan. It’s pretty clear that playing in the field took a toll on his body (not that corkscrew swing, of course, ha ha), and while there’s no guarantee he could stay healthy as a full-time DH, it’s not like Seattle’s coming off a season where they had one guy at DH all year long – Junior and Sweeney both had injury issues to fight through in ’09.
If we look at a lineup…
C – Johjima
1B – Carp? LaHair?
2B – Lopez
3B – Hall
SS – Tui? Josh Wilson?
LF – Saunders?
CF – Guti
RF – Itchy
DH – Junior? Branyan?
That’s not much offense, regardless of the question marks. Actually, it might actually produce less offense than the ’09 version with Hall replacing Beltre and unprovens/rookies at 1B, LF and SS, a rookie backup C (Moore), and Langerhans and Hannahan coming off the bench.
::: groan :::
Add in that Itchy can’t really do much better than he did in ’09, Lopez exceeded just about everyone’s expectations in ’09 and Branyan was a shocker (31 bombs? Who honestly thought he could eclipse 30?) in ’09… it doesn’t really get any prettier with the in-house talent that seems to routinely show they’re not ready.
Is the only hope for 90+ wins in 2010 based upon the premise that two or more of Tui, Saunders, Moore and Carp will break out and be productive as an everyday player? Does anyone see Josh Wilson or Hannahan being anything better than Willie Hustle? Will the 2006 Bill Hall please come to the podium?
Good grief… am I just depressing myself here?
Yes. But it’s not impossible.
And I repeat that offensively they can’t be worse than the people they replace. (Obviously Tui is not going to be Beltre defensively).
Will the 2006 Bill Hall please come to the podium?
The 2006 Bill Hall has gone to the same place as the 2004 Adrian Beltre.
The Mariners need offense and that is the end of the story.
Well, all things considered, if we look at the potential lineup(s), the need for Hall and Johjima to return to their collective 2006 form is paramount.
DH: A huge upgrade at DH will be crucial. We all love Griffey, but winning baseball games is a business primarily predicated on scoring as many runs as possible. His anemic production at DH in ’09 (.735 OPS, -0.37 WPA) must be improved upon dramatically. Branyan fits that mold (.867 OPS, 0.91 WPA), and let’s be honest – he’s not a very good defender and his back issues make me nervous enough that I wouldn’t want him playing in the field more than 1-2 times per week. If Branyan can go .250/.320/.480 in 140+ games, I think most of us would be happy enough with that.
1B: Whoever takes primary control at 1B has to be good enough to not miss Branyan’s production at the position and cannot completely offset the improvement hoped for by upgrading the DH slot. Mike Carp is a better defensive option at first than anyone else in-house, and he’s a patient left-handed hitter with a relatively level, line-drive swing. Carp, however, would have to have a very significant breakout season in ’10 to not diminish the benefit from adding Branyan at DH – a .260/.330/.420 line would probably be good enough, but he’d have to hit plenty of doubles to get to a .420 SLG considering he’s not really a home run hitter.
3B: Adrian Beltre’s defense cannot be replaced. That’s not to say, though, that his offense cannot be replaced. Bill Hall isn’t a horrible defensive downgrade, but his bat is questionable at best. If Beltre is a +3 WAR player with a .683 OPS and a .114 ISO in 112 games, then he was literally a no-bat/all-glove asset in ’09. By adding Hall (and therefore reducing the defensive capabilities at 3B) and getting the same offensive production as Beltre provided, would it be safe to assume Hall would be at least a +1.5-2.0 WAR guy in 2010 in a full season? Hall would have to go .265/.310/.390 to be just slightly better than AB in ’09.
SS: I see no reason to pick up Jack Wilson’s $8.4 million option for 2010. I also see no reason he would want to cut his pay drastically to play for a middle-of-the-pack Mariners club. IMHO, he’s out of the picture, which leaves us with only Josh Wilson. Or, does it? Here’s an idea – with as athletic as he looked at times in the field, perhaps Matt Tuiasosopo could be a potential fill-in at SS while we all wait for Carlos Truinfel to turn a corner and advance through the farm system. I know, I know. Tui’s not a shortstop. It’s probably the second-most physically demanding position on the field after catcher. He doesn’t have very good footwork. His hands are slow. He does, however, have a little bit more future and immediate upside than Josh Wilson. Seattle got literally squat out of their shortstops in ’09, so it’s not like Tui would have to be some offensive juggernaut and have a monster year at the plate like Rodriguez in his first full year (’96). He’d have to improve significantly from what he has shown in two short stints with the big club (let’s be fair, though – he’s only got 72 career PA), however. Would a .240/.300/.380 line from him be reasonable? Could we really expect much better than that from either of the Wilsons? Sure, a .680 OPS isn’t good, but it beats paying several millions for similar production from Jack Wilson.
LF: Michael Saunders showed flashes of brilliance. He has a smooth, compact, level swing. He can hit for a little bit of power, but he reminds me more of John Olerud or Will Clark (early-years Will Clark, at least) than of a legitimate power threat. He seemed to play a pretty good defensive LF, too. He’s hit for some pop and a decent OBP at every level of professional ball thus far, and he’s got enough speed to steal a dozen or more bags. Other options for LF are limited, with Prentice Redman appearing to be one of those *AAAA* guys and Jerry Owens possessing absolutely no power to speak of (3 HR and just 22 total XBH in 390 AAA at-bats in ’09).
If those are the positions that lacked the plate productivity that’s easiest to replace/upgrade, then we’re not looking at anything special for 2010 on the offensive side of things. Again, Itchy and Lopez would have to duplicate or improve upon their ’09 work in ’10, Johjima would need to return to ’06-’07 form at the plate (or, Moore would have to have a ROY-type campaign), and Gutierrez would need to build off his solid first season with the Mariners and at least repeat his .736 OPS and .147 ISO.
All of this is, of course, also contingent on the team as a whole not taking a big step backward either defensively or on the mound.
mac1973
I think your positions are well reasoned, but I have to disagree with you on shortstop. No, Jack Wilson is never going to be an offensive force, but when healthy there’s a good case to be made that he’s one of the top half dozen defensive shortstops in the game. It’s hard to visualize how many balls Yuni watched roll by that Wilson would have gloved.
And his fielding becomes more valuable when you think about the left side of the infield without Beltre.
Tui can never be a shortstop. He just hasn’t got the skill set. Just like I don’t believe he can ever be an effective second baseman. And I’m afraid waiting for Triunfel to play short is like waiting for Godot–he’s never going to play there either.
Just remember, 2011 is looking more and more like the coming out party.
I really enjoyed the days when Jason Bay played for the Portland Beavers. He was a Northwest guy with good character, he gave back to the community and he carried himself like a big league ballplayer even in the minors.
In other words, if you leave out the numbers and the salary, he is a great fit. Dave, I cannot thank you enough Dave for loudly yelling “pit trap” before any serious Mariners fans got attached to the idea of Bay in LF.
With 2009 still fresh in my memory, I have unwavering faith in the skills of Jack Zduriencik. I just can’t imagine him making a bonehead move like signing Jason Bay.
I definitely enjoyed the days when Jason Bay played for the Portland Beavers. He was a Northwest guy with good character, he gave back to the community and he carried himself like a big league ballplayer even in the minors.
In other words, if you leave out the numbers and the salary, he is a really great fit for Seattle. Dave, I cannot thank you enough for loudly yelling “land mine” before any serious Mariners fans got attached to the idea of Bay.
With 2009 fresh in my memory, I still have unwavering faith in the skills of Jack Zduriencik. I want to believe that his staff crunches the numbers with the same zeal as this great website and draws similar conclusions.
While I would not want to sign Bay, reading all of this makes me wonder how much different Jack Z’s life would be without Silva and Johjima’s contracts on the books.
Without those contracts, the Mariners would be able to compete very effectively in 2010. The impact of Bavasi lingers on.
diderot,
Good point about Jack Wilson’s defense – even if he hits poorly (for instance, a .235/.305/.380 line), he’s still such a well-rounded and effective defensive presence that any benefit from inserting someone else’s bat would be entirely offset by the defensive downgrade.
My point about either using Josh Wilson or Matt Tuiasosopo as a gap-filler at SS is that they’re MLB-minimum salary guys. For argument’s sake, let’s say Jack agrees to an extension that pays him ~$10 million over two seasons – where else could that money be used at a more pressing position for improvement? Or, is shortstop the most pressing need at the moment? Is it worth it to sign him through 2011 for that much money when he could hit for a full season like he did in 100 PAs as a Mariner in ’09?
I don’t expect another anemic .224/.263/.299 effort from Jack in ’10 & ’11, but his career line is .268/.310./.374 with a .106 ISO. Not exactly a heart-stopping effort. Would a .255/.300/.360 season be acceptable, considering the benefit of his defensive value? Would that really be worth ~$5 million per season?
Obviously, looking at just BA/OBP/SLG is a narrow view if things, but they’re all impactful rate stats that affect the whole of offensive productivity, and I’m very curious as to how other M’s fans and baseball analysts view his overall value to a team with his career offensive and defensive averages most likely unrepeatable due to age, wear-and-tear, being in a different league, etc.
I’m not so sure about this. First of all, I’m not sure we can blame the Kenji contract on Bavasi.
But more to the point, if we had that added money in the payroll, who would we spend it on? I suppose we could overpay for people like Webb or Crawford, but there’s no one much better available to catch.
And the kind of guys we should be thinking about, like Nick Johnson, may be available in our price range anyway.
josh wilson is not an everyday MLB player, thats the bottom line.
Felix.
Yes, absolutely.
But by definition that doesn’t improve the team.
Have a look at Wilson’s value — he earned his $7.25M last year. He’s averaged 2 WAR per year over the past 3 years, and teams are spending about $4M per win. So while it’s possible a guy as creative as Zduriencik will find even more wins for those dollars elsewhere, it’s by no means a forgone conclusion.
No, Tui is not a shortstop. So why ask him to be one? Sure, he comes a lot cheaper. But he last played SS with Inland Empire three years ago. Do you really think he can go back to playing SS at the major league level and not have his fielding deduct whatever his bat contributes? Do you really want to ask that of him? And do you really think he can deliver? Remember: Jack Wilson is a 2 WAR player. Can Tui deliver 2 WAR of offense while also playing league average defense at a position he was moved off of three years ago?
While re-learning to play the most demanding (non-catching) position on the field? For reference, that’s about the line for Cristian Guzman (.284 / .306 / .390) who was about -1 WAR offensively. So even assuming Tui can be a league average shortstop defensively, you’re taking 1 Win away from the team vs playing Jack Wilson. So now you’re asking Zduriencik to get even more wins from those millions you saved from Wilson’s contract. And, in practice, Tui might not even be a replacement level shortstop, which is a -2 win player, so now you’re talking about putting the team into an even deeper hole.
Ah, sorry about the blown blockquote… sigh.
Thanks, joser.
I know – I was looking at things from an offense-only standpoint, but I wasn’t being trying to be intentionally ignorant of the value of defense… which is why I was trying to pose the question of what Wilson could bring to the table offensively and whether or not that would all but completely offset his high defensive value. New league, less-than-effective lineup around him, age, injuries, etc… they all add up.
I’m just looking at in-house possibilities for improving one of the AL’s least-effective offenses, and I’m wondering how much defensive value GMZ might be willing to sacrifice for “X” runs created on offense.
I know Tui isn’t a shortstop, but I do expect the M’s to explore just about every possibility they can imagine this offseason as far as getting more runs on the board. I was just kind of throwing that out there as a “what if?”, so please don’t think I’m a complete goober and wholly unaware of how a lot of things work.
=oP
Jack Z loves Jack Wilson. He didn’t make the trade so Wilson could play for him for a couple of months. He’ll be back at least next year.
While it’s certainly possible that Jack Wilson will be back, I think he’s more of a fall-back starting option then candidate numero uno.
That said, if the Mariners were able to acquire a more qualified candidate (J.J. Hardy I’m looking at you and your potential 4WAR here.) that still wouldn’t prevent them from buying out Wilson and offering him an Adam Everett style contract and playing him as the back-up infielder.
While it’s certainly possible that Jack Wilson will be back, I think he’s more of a fall-back starting option then candidate numero uno.
That said, if the Mariners were able to acquire a more qualified candidate (J.J. Hardy I’m looking at you and your potential 4WAR here.) that still wouldn’t prevent them from buying out Wilson and offering him an Adam Everett style contract and playing him as the back-up infielder.
I like that idea Adam. But, lets just speculate for a minute that J.J. Hardy could be had for a decent price or low price, something reasonable. Why not use him and Wilson in the infield. Shift Lopez to first and use Tui at third. The range of either at shortstop should make it a little easier on Tui at third, and Lopez at first if he could put up average numbers.
I’m just kind of putting thoughts together and what if’s, but wouldn’t that give the M’s a nice up the middle defense. You’d than be able to move Branyan to a full DH role which could possibly, and quite hopefully take some of the strain off of him physically. And the offensive production I think would be significantly better.
This all hangs on the what if being that J.J. Hardy can be a 4 WAR player again. And if Branyan and Lopez can meet, or surpass last years production. Which, if they do, than Wilson putting up a .240/.300/.380 line wouldn’t be horrible considering the plus offense and help in defense? Again, I am still new to all the numbers and and formula’s and am still a rookie. But I am trying to comprehend. And that’s all being based on that the Brewers are willing to put all their eggs in one basket with Escobar. Because in my opinion wouldn’t it be the longer they hold Hardy, the more his value goes down if they have no intention of starting him as a regular? Opinions?
Ive been thinking about the Bay option since it started rumoring late in the season. He’s local (somewhat), he went to school here (somewhat…in the state at least!), and blah blah blah.
Then I read this blog about how Bay dosnt belong on the M’s roster. This got me thinking….WHY NOT?
Ya, you guys can make the argument that right handers dont do well at the Safe…but isnt Jose a righty…Edgar a righty…ARod a righty…not to mention the righties that come to visit and tear us apart like Vlady and Cabrera
Are we hoping for 9 lefties in the lineup next season? The truth is good players will succeed anywhwere under any circumstance. And I believe Bay to be a good player.
That said, I agree Bay will be way overpriced and DO NOT WANT the M’s to throw the red carpet down for him, there are too many other options at LF. But if he came at the right price, why not ponder it? Just dont mark him for death because hes a righty…the majority of the world is, and the majority of baseball is as well!
The truth is good players will succeed anywhwere under any circumstance.
This is so far from the truth to be laughable. Do you think a flyball pitcher would do well in Coors Field?
You have to account for the park, or you’ll make stupid decisions. To write off the effects of Safeco on RHBs is beyond dumb.
I guess what I should have wrote was GOOD HITTERS, maybe that would have helped. I Didnt mention anything about pitching at Coors Vs. Safeco
Ok his #’s would drop a little I agree. He wouldnt fall off the map though! Thats ridiculus!! He’s had a good career so far, thats somthing you cant fake or hide, its not like he just had 1 good season in Boston! He would still contribute and produce as a Mariner… as a Padre, on any team with a pitchers park.
Im not discounting anything, to say you dont want Bay is absurd. Any team would love to have him in the lineup……its his cost that will keep him in NY (either Queens or the Bronx) or Boston most likely. Not his being right handed!
I understand the point you’re trying to make, I get it. Ya a lefty power bat is what we need, I get it…Dont get caught up in the “Bay is from Seattle” trip…I GET IT!
djtizzo,
The trouble with Jason Bay isn’t his bat. It’s widely recognized that he can hit well. He’s capable of pushing the ball, also, so Safe’s effects on RHB’s would be slightly reduced.
Regardless of his offensive capabilities, however, his defense would negate most of the benefit his offense would create. Fercrissakes, he was a -20 (+/1) run LF for the Sox while playing half his games in Fenway. If that doesn’t scare away a guy that values defense as highly as GMZ values defense, then I don’t know what will.
Ya thats horrible, not worth it at all! I do agree that Bay is not a fit here at all with what we’re trying to do, totally. Just wanted to shake things up a bit and consider every possible advantage and disadvantage. I mean, I like Saunders as much as the next M’s fan, but Im not delusional! Bay is a better hitter than him any day!
At least for now….
Whoops, sorry for the bquote error.
I like the idea of JJ playing in the middle for us, but we had a chance to get him at the deadline and didnt….makes you wonder why! Morrows value as a player with A+ potential is too much for Hardy I think. If they are gonna make a move like that why not ask for Escobar?
Exactly! It is very curious that the front office wouldn’t trade valuable assets, during a season in which they weren’t going to contend, for a player that wasn’t going to get them there anyway. Fire them all dammit!
Dave (or someone else at USSM), please link to this entry again so maybe Z (or one of the other local papers) will pick it up.
Thanks 🙂