What Are The M’s Going To Do?
Okay, you’ve seen my plan for the kind of off-season I’d like to see the M’s have. As a follow-up, I usually post a “What I Think The Team Will Do”, where I speculate on the types of moves that I expect the Mariners to actually make. I spent hours trying to do that post, and you know what – I don’t have any idea. I really don’t know what to expect.
There are just so many ways the team could go. Negotiations with Felix could break down and they could decide to trade him, which would lead to several different options; try to get a package that includes another team’s young star, deal him for a couple of major league ready guys who haven’t established themselves yet, or ship him off for a bushel of prospects that will hopefully be ready in a couple of years. I don’t think they’ll do the latter, but the first two are possibilities.
As we’ve talked about, a Felix trade has ramifications for the rest of the roster as well. The players coming back are going to fill positions, though there’s no way to know which players the M’s could get until the offers emerge. It also signals that you’re probably building for 2011 and beyond, and that makes signing free agents who may want to win significantly harder. At that point, the incentives for playing kids like Mike Carp and Michael Saunders go up, so the team is less likely to pursue minor upgrades at the major league level. On the other hand, dealing Felix also saves the team a pretty significant amount of money, giving them the option to be aggressive in acquiring a higher priced player who may be willing to wait for 2011 for real contention. So, while the team would probably avoid moderate upgrades that displaced young talent, they may be more aggressive in going after an expensive premium player to replace Felix.
Then, there’s the scenarios where they keep Felix, which vary significantly as well. The team could take a conservative path, making small changes to a roster that returns enough players to not be horrible and judge the development of Morrow, Saunders, Moore, and Tui as the season goes along. They could take a more aggressive approach, giving the kids a little more Triple-A seasoning while bringing in several quality players as placeholders in an attempt to make a playoff run next year. They could do a hybrid of both, which is the direction that I suggested they lean towards, and upgrade certain roster spots while also giving a couple of the young players a chance to prove themselves.
All of those overall strategies have a multitude of different routes as well. The team could trade Lopez, give Tui a shot at second base, and bring in a third baseman. They could keep Lopez and use Tui at third. They could keep Lopez and send Tui back to Tacoma for some more polishing. They could trade them both, re-sign Beltre, and bring in a veteran second baseman with a better glove. Saunders could be the starting left fielder for the Mariners or the Rainiers, or he could be traded in a deal to bring in a young player at another position while a new placeholder keeps the seat warm for Dustin Ackley. They could sign a high risk, injury prone pitcher and hope to strike gold, or they could trade a couple of pitchers away in an effort to improve the offense.
In the end, pretty much anything is possible outside of Ichiro getting traded. When you look at the current 40 man roster, I’d be comfortable with saying that approximately 5-10 of those guys will certainly be here in March. The other 30-35? No idea.
There are just so many ways the team could go that the off-season is essentially unpredictable. I know people love to speculate about what the team is going to do, but in reality, there’s just no way to know. We’re just going to have to wait and see what Z and the gang have up their sleeves.
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I know you’ve already crowned a winner, but you could just call said trade Bavasinine.
I’m sure that someone much wittier than I will come up with something better. But if not, I’ll gladly buy the winner his next beer.
See?
To correct my previous comment regarding free agent compensatory picks, for those who are unaware of the fact, I should have pointed out that compensation picks are only relative if a free agent is offered and rejects arbitration by his old team.
And that there’s absolutely no way guys like Hudson, Scutaro, Polanco, F. Lopez et al. are going to be offered arbitration.
Because they’ll accept arby, rather than facing a deflated FA market for what they bring to the table. And then they’ll beat the team in the arby hearing.
And then teams will have overpaid talent by the bushel on their roster.
No, I think teams are going to let talent go by, and take their chances they can still sign them (or comparable players) once they’ve hit the market- but on far better financial terms for them.
I personally hope we do sign Orlando Hudson. Considering how he was used in the NLDS, I can’t imagine he fits a long-range plan the Dodgers have- therefore, I can’t imagine he gets offered arbitration.
One thing is certain…it will be a busy off-season. With 7 of the 9 offensive positions to be determined, this will be the most interesting hot stove league in years for M’s fans.
Scutaro will be offered arbitration, certainly.
I know you’ve already crowned a winner, but you could just call said trade Bavasinine.
That one gets my vote.
Dave, do you think he’ll get over $2 million in arb?
i.e. you’re being Bavasanine. Keep your Bavantasies to yourself. Bavert!
If Felix were to be traded to the Dodgers as someone suggested above, could the Mariners end up with Kershaw, Billingsley, or, dare I dream, both?
I guess asking for both of them is pretty far-fetched, but what about, say, Felix for Kershaw and Andre Etheir?
You know, we have we have two NL West teams (Dodgers and Padres) where ownership is riven by divorce, and we have an AL West team (Rangers) where there’s some question of the owner’s solvency. There’s an NL Central team (Cubs) changing hands, an AL East team (Jaya) cleaning house, and an NL East team (Mets) where the GM would seem to be hanging by a thread. Depending on how quickly that all shakes out, that may have some effect on how many buyers there are in the market, especially early on. It’s too much to hope that this may create an opportunity to “win” some trades with front offices that don’t have their acts together (after all, the M’s were cleaning house this time last year and look how that offseason turned out) but we can always hope. Which is, of course, what the offseason is for. Go Jack go.
Yeah, that is good. But as you’ve already noted, we have room for both: by practicing Bavantasies, you’re being Bavasinine. In fact, it’s utterly Baverse. Moreover, we can define the Baversity of a trade as a measure of how badly one side mis-evaluated the players involved.
Man, for a guy who’s long gone he still haunts us, doesn’t he?
“I don’t necessarily agree that Felix > Lester, though. Lester’s been a 5-6 WAR pitcher in his two full seasons…”
Felix is younger and has better stuff. Plus, out of the four years each of them has been in the Majors, Lester has outpitched Felix exactly once. Yeah, Lester has two years at that 5-6 WAR level (which does not represent where Felix was this year, at a younger age than Lester’s first full year in the Majors). Felix was a 7 WAR player this year and has more upside.
Granted, these are both great pitchers (and this basically makes your “lateral move” argument), but which of these pitchers would you rather have:
Lester
Age Yr WAR FIP ERA+
22 ’06 1.3 4.56 100
23 ’07 0.5 5.24 104
24 ’08 5.1 3.64 144
25 ’09 6.2 3.15 139
Felix
Age Yr WAR FIP ERA+
20 ’06 3.8 3.91 98
21 ’07 4.1 3.75 110
22 ’08 3.9 3.80 122
23 ’09 6.9 3.09 174
Again, based on age and peak, I’d argue Felix > Lester. You have a good point, about Lester’s left-handedness, but I’m not sure I think that matters so much in an ace (other than a LHP will probably have greater longevity once he’s at the point where he is no longer an ace). I won’t consider the injury speculation, because all pitchers are risky and I don’t think subjective opinion (especially lay subjective opinion – no offense) about the relative strength of mechanics is a very reliable predictor of future health and performance.
Where I would agree is that there isn’t enough of a difference between Lester and Felix for the Sox not to consider a swap involving them basically a lateral move. BUT, the M’s are moving Morrow, Triunfel, and Aumont as well – I would hope that wth that kind of talent going out in addition to Felix. Yes, I realize that the deal Baker reported had another HUGE piece coming the M’s way in Adrian Gonzalez, but I would expect the Sox would be getting something more than just Felix, as well. For sure, they would have to be, in order to be giving up somebody like Lester…but if it ain’t Lester, I don’t think we’re getting enough for that package. Apparently you agree, though we probably disagree on whether the M’s should sweeten the deal if there was any inkling they could get Lester back instead of Buchholz.
But I am Bavantasizing in a major, Bavasinine way. The biggest reason the Sox won’t deal Lester is the opposite of why the M’s might be willing to deal Felix – they’ve already crossed the “extension” bridge with Lester and he’s tied up through 2014 for a much more reasonable price than Felix will cost.
I do agree with you on avoiding over-hyped Red Sox prospects – that’s why Lester interests me more. Not that that matters in any way….
Is this a real trade?
Or is it Bavantasy?
I buy high!
I sell low!
Easy come!
Easy go!
Anyway the scouts blow,
Doesn’t really matter
To me…
Fandom,
Just killed a team
Agents heard I could be had
Pulled the triggers
Payroll’s dead
etc…
Love Bavantasy
love USSM
Here’s to better off seasons.
Stop talking about Jon Lester. The Red Sox will not be trading him even for a stud like Felix. It’s not realistic in the slightest. Lester will be the Red Sox ace if Josh Beckett leaves after 2010 in free agency. It’s absolutely a lateral move for the Red Sox. Not worth it even though Felix is > Lester.
The offer would start with Buchholz and then a pile of the top prospects or some other major league or near major league talent. But Buchholz would be the centerpiece. If Jack Z doesn’t like Buchholz and the cartful of prospects Boston could ship over to fill the AA/AAA/ML ranks, then there is probably nothing to be done.
Names the Red Sox might offer include Lowrie, Kotchman, Delcarmen, Bard, Bowden, Reddick, Kalish, Lars Anderson, and lower level lottery tickets. Kottaras (not that he has much value) would be available as a backup at catcher.
And there’s always Daisuke Matsuzaka…
All things considered, I might have been amiss in including his name among those non-arby-gettin’ dudes.
But I think I’m not fundamentally wrong with the others.
The second one is kind of an intriguing scenario. But I think they don’t go for it.
The way I see it, Kershaw hasn’t lost that much of his luster, and Ethier will be cheap production for years.
But what makes that idea intriguing is that the Dodgers saw their pitching exposed in the NLDS- very publicly.
Certainly there’ll be a clamor for a true #1 starter among the Dodger fan-base.
One thing in our favor on the whole trade-Felix idea is that there’s about thirty other teams who’d love to have him.
But I’m in the “sign him long-term” camp.
Now, joser, do you see what you have started? You should be
amusedashamed.I would like to thank you however for me buying me my first beer this evening. That was very generous of… uh… somebody.
Oh yes. That was a masterful use of funds.
How did the M’s miss out on that? Expecially (sic) with “him” in charge.
If Buchholz winds up being the “centerpiece” of such a move, I’d have to say thanks but no thanks. Besides the fact that Felix >>> Buchholz, I haven’t seen enough upside out of him yet that I’d be ready to slot him in as a number-one starter.
BTW…kudos, Skipj, on the “Bavasian Rhapsody”! 🙂
Felix Mariner4LIFE!!!
But as long as we’re talking about it, what about Felix to the Rays for Price and Brignac?
A piece the Rays need to win the east for a piece the M’s need plus a replacement. Make it public and the Rays would have trouble resisting it.
For Felix, that price is low.
My work here is done.
I think it’s quite kosher to throw out names like Lester and Pedroia as long as moronic members of the Red Sox nation keep throwing out ideas like Lars Anderson, Josh Reddick and Bowden for Felix.
One of the things that spurs my hatred for New-England/New York baseball is the fact that their fan base feel the rest of the league can’t wait to give up their talented players for overhyped B-rate talent.
That said, It’s kind of disparaging to see USSM starting to turn into “MLBTr4d3Rum0RZ” over the last few days, and I anticipate a quick and merciless correction is in the near future for those who don’t learn to tow the line with regards to posting content.
Amen to that, brother! One of the reasons why, IMO, Sox Nation has become as equally as obnoxious as Yankee Nation these days (if not even more so) is that ever since they’ve gotten a taste of being on top, they’ve now grown an attitude of “Gee, anything that’s not in Pinstripes must be some ‘second division’ team who’s not worthy of contention…so, let’s see if they’re desperate enough to dump salary that we can gyp them out of their superstar players for whatever they’re dumb enough to take off our scrap heap.” The Yanks, of course, have been masters of this kind of “savvy” (at least from their perpective) wheeling-and-dealing for what’s seemed like a zillion years now — the infamous Tino/Nellie/Mecir for Davis/Hitchcock debacle back in ’96 being only one such example. Nowadays, though, it seems like Chowder Nation expects every other team to just roll over for them in much the same manner.
I understand the inherent risks in locking in an ace starter to any kind of long-term contract — even a young one with a ton of upside like Felix. And also, it didn’t help matters much that Bavasi peed in the pool by going out of his way — via a press conference, no less — to announce that Felix would not be getting the ball on Opening Day of 2008 due to his warped theory that Erik Bedard was somehow the Second Coming of Sandy Koufax and would pitch the M’s all the way to the World Series just because he gave up a ton of valuable prospects to get him. That said, we now have in Z a GM who — probably the overwhelming majority of us here feel — has a commitment to rebuilding the team into a legitimate contender. I personally believe he will make every effort possible to attempt to get Felix resigned…and, if (and only if) all of them fail, he will then get the best available package he can for him — one that will still leave the M’s in a position to be able to contend.
Having followed in the footsteps of guys like Woodward, Gillick and Bavasi, and with attendance declining over the past few years, I think he understands what’s at stake for this team’s fan base — and that they (or should I say, we) deserve better than to get short-changed again for yet another generation. And getting past the defeatist Woodward-esque “we didn’t have any choice but to take somebody else’s hand-me-downs” mindset would go a long ways toward turning the corner toward a New Day and New Way.
Patience and vigilance, my friends — in Z we trust!
And you wish to be on that level why?
Unfortunately, until recently, that’s exactly what the M’s management was doing. Giving up good stuff (be that players or dollars) for not so good return.
Thankfully, that has been fixed.
Actually we’ve been having a bit of fun at their expense. Hell, there was even a Bavasian rhapsody in the thread. Relax man.
TP;
I’d like to ask you how I feel I’ve reduced myself to that level?
If I state a trade idea I do my research for all the players involved, look for logic and need from both teams perspectives, and then back up my suggestion with my reasoning.
I’m not opposed to trade ideas being put forth, I’m opposed to ridiculous trade ideas introduced without thought or reason from individuals who feel that their opinions don’t require it.
Also, emotional intent is something that sometimes gets lost in written communication, so I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt when I say that my original post requesting a higher level of standards is not done to condemn anyone or to quash anybodies fun, but to try and maintain some level of intelligent discourse.
I’m not a moderator and I’m not affiliated with USS Mariner as anything but an avid reader and occasional forum poster, so I’m not here to enforce my ideas of proper forum etiquette, but I wouldn’t be surprised if things get to far out of hand that someone with authority doesn’t reign things in.
By all means knock your socks off with Albert Pujols for Jose Lopez trade scenarios.
What if Carp and Peña were swapped in the same deal?
If the Mariners were to ever land the pride of Northeastern University, let it be known that I’m moving to Seattle.
Of course, the better option is the one I think we’ll get. Sign the King.
I’m in the camp with you guys who say that a blockbuster deal isn’t going to happen.
Ichiro, Guti, and Felix are the cores of next year’s team. SS will be Jack Wilson, he was signed to stablize SS for more that a few months. Moore and Johnson will get all the shots at C, but the team will sign a low cost veteran, as well, as insurance.
Branyan comes back, I think. But he’s the DH next year. Carp gets first shot at 1B, but I could see a FA pick-up here. 2 years of Nick Johnson would be great, but I don’t think that will happen.
Big questions are?
#1 Which FA #2 type arm do they go after? Felix, RRS, Snell and Morrow….with a true #2 isn’t bad at all. But a two or three year sign here probably means that they don’t pay for Nick Johnson or a Nick Johnson-lite for 2 years.
#2 Beltre? Do they re-sign him? He had the worst offensive year of his career, essentially..and he’s still a +2 WAR guy. I would love to see him go, really..I’m incredibly tired of watching him strike out on a slider 2 ft outside and in the dirt….but I think they resign him. Probably for a year or two.
#3 Lopez? I’ve bashed him as much as anybody. He’s a hacking hack of a hack. But he’s developing into a fly ball 20-30 HR guy, even in Safeco…and he isn’t 26 yet. I think the Lopez deal depends on how comfortable the brass is with Tui at 2nd. I think they want Tui to be the guy and Lopez can pull in trade value, so I think Lopez goes….But I think I can live wih him and hope he stays.
#4 LF! I think the M’s make a signing here. Ackely is a year away..and I don’t think Saunders has convinced anybody he’s the guy (even though it was a limted tryout, so to speak). I don’t know who is out there at..but I wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t try something else here. Saunders hit .244 with a .329 BABIP, considering the 2nd the 1st is particularly unimpressive. He is a good fielder and hits from the Safeco-approved side of the plate so he may get first shot here. He and Lopez and a young arm (Morrow????..who I hope the M’s keep) would be a strong, and very young, trade package, wouldn’t it? What kind of starting arm could you get in exchange for that?
moethedog
What I understood you to say in that paragraph is “If they can post about idiotic trades, so can I”. I guess I was mistaken with your intent and I apologize if my reply offended you.
I saw today that on ESPN some Yankee fans suggesting that they need better production than Melky Cabrera. Somebody suggested that Adam Lind would be a good guy to trade him for. Well, that seems fair.
No offense taken Tranq. Sorry if I come off as a holier then though dickhead. 🙂
I love this community. Folks take the time to be polite and apologize when necessary (and sometimes even when not), instead of escalating things in tedious GIDT fashion like you see in the comments on virtually every other site on the net.
Well, as Sir Elton once put it, “Caaaan you feel the love tonight?!” 🙂
…And we have Penny Arcade references. 🙂
To make this baseball related; How about Geoff Baker’s Orlando Hudson “rumor”?
Should any credence be lent to this or is he just stoking the beginnings of a hot-stove fire?
I hunger for Mariners baseball news. Come on, Z, flip Felix for Lillibridge already!
I just threw up in my mouth a little bit. And the after taste is something like “Griffey is coming back in 2010.”
Which, if having his knee surgery this early is any indication, he wants to do! Yaaaaaaaay! Who needs a DH anyway?!?
Hey everybody, this will be my first time commenting, but I’ve been reading USSM’s work for months and love wielding the knowledge I’ve found here over my ERA and BA obsessed buddies. I recently read a post in which it was suggested that we sign a veteran left fielder to a one-year deal in order to give Saunders another year down in Tacoma to hone his offensive skills. What do you guys think about the possibility of signing Marlon Byrd? I know his numbers are inflated as a result of playing half his games in Texas, but he was a 2.4 WAR player last year and he has a lifetime UZR/150 of 10.8 in left field. I really like the idea of signing him to an incentive-based one-year deal.
MLB gets mad at you if you make a move during the playoffs/WS. Unless you’re Scott Boras and/or ARod.
Definitely time for Junior to look on this knee surgery as how he’s going to be able to walk normally in his later years, not a way to play baseball and need another surgery next year.
Hopefully it’s to help his golf swing.
I can’t wait for this world series to be over with. The suspense of the off-season is killing me. The only thing to look forward to for the next week or two is Raul maybe getting a ring. I hope he does.
I just moved to the Northeast and had forgotten how obnoxious Sox fans are.
Well, there’s always hoping that the wankees go down like a whitehouse intern…
There is a case to be made that the Mariners will be a much-improved offensive by doing NEXT TO NOTHING:
At catcher, we may want a vet at AAA “just in case”, but both Rob Johnson (27 years old) and Adam Moore (26 years old) are major-league ready or darn close to it. And Moore, in particular,is a hitter (projection: .260/.350 10 HR). Cost of doing next to nothing: neutral, with critical experience gained.
At 1B, Mike Carp, only 23 next year, is a hitter who gets on base and plays decent defense (projection: .260/.350 20HR). This is where the M’s might do a little, perhaps signing Hank Blalock for both DH and 1B backup. But with Branyan down and Carp at 1B late in the year, the M’s didn’t suffer much. Blalock would bring the power (and Branyan may be too much of an injury risk). Impact from 2009: neutral.
At 2B, the M’s already sacrifice defense for offense. But Jose Lopez is just entering his prime, and .300 hitting 2B with 25 homer/100 RBI power are not to be found everywhere. Stand pat.
At 3B, Tuiasasopo, only 24 next year,
almost made the team last year out of a great spring training. He then promptly injured himself at AAA. But as the year closed, he was coming back strongly. The M’s might want to make a trade play with KC for Mark Teahen, who can also play OF (cover for Michael Saunders, see below), but Tuiasasopo projects at .260/.360 with 15 HR…not a rally-stopper like Beltre, with a much better OPB. Again, we’ll sacrifice a defense, but we don’t lose that much offensively. In fact, it might be an offense upgrade from 2009, with a bit less power but a lot more getting on base, moving guys over, getting guys in.
At SS, the M’s will probably buy out Jack Wilson’s option for $600K, then sign him for two years while they wait for Triunfel. Wilson’s sense of team play, baseball instincts, and ability to move guys over offensively will far exceed last year’s production. Defensively, he’s baseball’s best shortstop. Upgrade both offensively and defensively over 2009.
Outfield: Gutierrez, Ichiro, Michael Saunders. Saunders, only 23 next year, will improve offensively, and may be 2010’s Rookie of the Year. He’s strong defensively, has good speed, hits to all fields, and gets on base (projected conservatively at .260/.350 15 HR , with lots of upside). Here’s another place where the M’s could use someone like Mike Teahen from KC as an experienced, proven backup who can hit. Impact from 2009: upgrade offensively and defensively.
Simply by adding a veteran backup catcher playing at AAA, and by adding two experienced, good-hitting players like Hank Blalock (free agent 1B/DH backup) and Mark Teahen (3B/OF backup) in a relatively minor trade with KC, the M’s are in very good position to be a better team both offensively and in key defensive positions (SS and LF) next year.
We have to learn how good Moore, Johnson, Carp, Tuiasasopo, and Saunders can be. Moore, Carp, Tuiasasopo, and Saunders, in particular, appear to have good upside offensive potential. If we can back them up with vets “just in case”, that may be the way to go.
That leaves lots of money for a strong #2 pitcher in free agency. But that’s another guessing game at some other time.
Where are you getting Adam Moore’s projected OBP from? He’s playing in a ballpark that hates RHB and going from AAA to the majors, and you think he’s a .350 OBP? Really?
Mike Carp is a 1.5 WAR player (and Dave’s discussed him– he’s not close to being as good as you think). Russ Branyan was a 3+ WAR player.
Jose Lopez is about average on offense and defense as a 2B. So, no, he’s not really a case where we sacrifice offense for defense. He’s kinda just average overall.
Adrian Beltre is a very, VERY good 3B (3-4 WAR). Tui isn’t likely to be as good (1-ish WAR, also see Dave). He also has the same problem Moore has (Safeco hates RHB). (Go look at Beltre’s road splits from 2004-2009 and you’ll see why a) he wasn’t a rally-killer, and b) why I’d be REALLY reluctant to start projecting RHB to be particularly awesome.)
You also seem to forget that in LF, Endy Chavez played a bunch of games, as did… Michael Saunders. So I think the defensive improvement’s pretty minimal. Saunders being injured in Venezuela isn’t going to help his development, but he’s a 1-ish WAR player (see above)… like Endy Chavez.
All told, your plan sounds great… for winning 75ish games inexpensively with rookies and Mark Teahen, and still struggling to score runs (-Branyan + Carp is a net downgrade)- with all the eggs being put in the #2 starter basket (ask Bill Bavasi how that went sometime). It also sounds very pie-in-the-sky on the rookie OBP and offensive development, and ignores the value the players like Beltre and Chavez added on defense, as well as what Branyan did.