On bringing back Griffey

DMZ · November 2, 2009 at 11:51 am · Filed Under Mariners 

I understand the good feelings. Heck, we partook. And no one’s going to deny the team certainly seemed happier, though we can argue how to divvy up the credit.

But are the few clutch hits really so awesome that people overlook what actually happened last year? In 2010, Griffey will be forty. He’s fought nagging injuries for years, to the point he can’t defend in the field and still worse for AL-job-finding purposes, he can’t hit well enough to be a DH.

He hit .214/.324/.411 last year, and it’s not as if even stricter platooning would help. He only faced lefties 87 times (and had great luck against them, defying a long decline into hopelessness).

We heard a lot about how his lack of power was due to his knee, and pointed out it looked a lot more like standard decline from aging. Here’s his career SLG line on Fangraphs:

There’s no coming back from that.

And here’s the problem, right — last year the M’s had a lot of rope to work with, and roster spots they could burn on positive public relations moves like the Griffey return. They were trying to dig themselves out of a huge hole and made some big high-risk moves (like the Putz trade) that were hard to explain to the fans buying a couple tickets a year and getting their analysis from the broadcast crew. Griffey came cheap, took an incentive-based contract, and offered them a great story to sell.

Next year they’re in an even tougher position. They need to figure out what they’re doing with Felix, and at the same time they’re trying to improve a team with not much money and not much roster space. They can’t afford to spend a couple million on a DH who can’t hit, because it’s going to take money away from improving elsewhere and it’s going to force them to get even more from even less because if their DH isn’t contributing, someone else will need to.

That’s not clear enough. Every American League team can get better than Griffey’s production by picking the right minor league free agent or rehab project and paying them $350,000-$1m (or just using the DH to rest an over-stuffed lineup of outfielders). If the M’s pay that, they’re only treading water. If they pay more, they’re sinking.

This may well end up being a great test of how much exactly the M’s value Griffey’s clubhouse presence. Last year they kept two non-hitter designated hitters for their hugging and pie-throwing abilities, and Dave and I argued a lot about whether it was worth tearing my hair out worrying about every marginal run (Dave arguing for calmness). And it’s possible during the season they didn’t want to tamper with what was working by tossing popular Sweeney in favor of anyone who could hit, and I sympathize, a little.

But this off-season they’re going to need to look at this with an eye towards wins and their budget. The 2010 Mariners need to improve their offense, and they need better hitting from their designated hitters. Griffey doesn’t offer that. And as much as Seattle loves him, well, we love Edgar too, but we wouldn’t bring him back to DH next year.

Comments

85 Responses to “On bringing back Griffey”

  1. currcoug on November 3rd, 2009 8:08 pm

    Two points:

    1) It is highly probable (I would say obvious) that Junior’s presence directly to the resurgence of Ichiro. It is possible that if Junior doesn’t return, Ichiro will return to his shell, with adverse consequences as a player, to the clubhouse, and the franchise;

    2) It is beyond dispute that as a baseball player, Junior’s on-field performance (hitting) was very good at Safeco Field, and very important to the Mariners. While I don’t think the surgery will solve Junior’s knee problems (or lack of production on the road) it is a possibility.

  2. Mike Snow on November 3rd, 2009 8:27 pm

    Let’s suppose that Ichiro didn’t perform as well in 2008 as he should because he had retreated into his shell, and that all the credit for getting him out of his shell should go to Griffey. Even if we agree on all that, it does not follow that Griffey’s departure would cause Ichiro to return to his shell.

    How many years has Ichiro been with the Mariners? How many of those years has he been “in his shell”? How many not? Which of those years was Griffey on the team?

    In the “shell” years, was Ichiro’s performance affected? What is your best analysis of what caused him to go into his shell? Would Griffey’s departure be likely to recreate those circumstances?

  3. gsquared on November 3rd, 2009 9:02 pm

    Couldn’t it also be said that the departure of, um, certain players also helped Ichiro come out of his “shell?” And how about the fact that the team was playing its best baseball since 2003? Everything’s more fun when you’re winning more.

    There is no reason at all to give Griffey automatic credit for all the sunshine in the clubhouse this year. How good might the clubhouse have been if the team had a real DH, better roster flexibility and was winning more games as a result? We don’t know.

  4. gsquared on November 3rd, 2009 9:04 pm

    To clarify: yes, I know that the 07 team won more games, but by WAR this year’s team played better baseball.

  5. Goody on November 3rd, 2009 10:04 pm

    There is way too much attitude over the 24th or 25th man on the roster. This team broke camp with Tui last season even though everyone knew that he had no role on that team. If they bring back Griffey it is not the end of successsful baseball in Seattle. He is Charles Gipson with no speed and a little pop. This should not be a consuming issue.

  6. DMZ on November 3rd, 2009 11:16 pm

    It’s the off-season. Let people talk about this stuff and be happy people care.

  7. Goody on November 3rd, 2009 11:20 pm

    It is the offseason and we (unfortunately) have nothing better to do but…….If JR. comes back there are good things to be said about it. There is no chance of having both Sweeney and JR. on the team next year but there is room for one of them. I vote for Griffey.

  8. gsquared on November 4th, 2009 12:10 am

    He is Charles Gipson with no speed and a little pop. This should not be a consuming issue.

    Again, this decision is an issue because of what it says about the franchise. DMZ’s post illustrates how simple and cheap it would be to get better production out of that roster spot. Based on that, there’s simply no baseball reason I can see for bringing him back at his current level of performance.

    Simply put: a Griffey resigning would be as good an indicator as any that despite the “new day, new way” sloganeering the M’s, in making roster decisions, continue to place a premium on off-field factors (marketing, nostalgia, clubhouse woo!, etc.). The Griffey decision will go a long way in illuminating what the franchise philosophy is at this critical point. That should be a consuming issue.

  9. eponymous coward on November 4th, 2009 12:51 am

    It is highly probable (I would say obvious) that Junior’s presence directly to the resurgence of Ichiro. It is possible that if Junior doesn’t return, Ichiro will return to his shell, with adverse consequences as a player, to the clubhouse, and the franchise;

    In other words, you’re arguing we need to keep Griffey on the roster until either Ichiro’s contract expires or we trade Ichiro, or he’ll start pouting?

    This is really a dumb argument.

    It is beyond dispute that as a baseball player, Junior’s on-field performance (hitting) was very good at Safeco Field, and very important to the Mariners. While I don’t think the surgery will solve Junior’s knee problems (or lack of production on the road) it is a possibility.

    And he sucked on the road, which is also important for the Mariners, since they play 81 games there during the regular season. His overall performance was clearly unacceptable, and cherry-picking the home games is a case of letting performance issues be blinded by things like attendance and hero-worship (OMG GRIFFEY SQUEEE).

    Also, we’ve been hearing various refrains of “Junior will be SO MUCH better when he comes back from his injuries” since 2000. He hasn’t been, really- his HOF resume consists of 1989-2000. The rest of the time he’s been a barely above-replacement player, and much of the time he’s been a replacement-level player. At this point in his career, he’s getting playing time and roster spots on his name, not his current talent… and he’s 40 and couldn’t stay healthy as a not-quite full time DH, which makes the idea of him being a fallback option for “injury risks” kind of comical.

  10. currcoug on November 4th, 2009 9:58 am

    It is revealing that you can’t admit that Junior was a very important player (hitting) for the Mariners at Safeco Field. I stated from the beginning that Junior “absolutely sucked” on the road. I also agreed that he was not good overall, so you are repeatedly beating a dead horse on those points.

    Replacement level players don’t put up .548 SLG and .930 OPS at Safeco. That comment is as specious as the “500 minor leaguer” clubhouse statement.

    In regards to Ichiro, his comments about Junior could not be clearer, and speak for themselves.

    Again, I agree that the surgery is not likely to cure Junior’s chronic knee problems.

  11. Mike Snow on November 4th, 2009 10:15 am

    If we’re going to complain about beating dead horses, can we just stop going on about Griffey’s home/road splits entirely? We’re talking about roughly 200-250 plate appearances in either case. While the gap is wide enough to indicate that there is some real difference, the sample sizes are not large enough to reliably indicate much. Between regression and natural aging, this isn’t enough of a case that Griffey is still a good player when he’s at Safeco, any more than he’s completely washed up away from it. Basically, he’s a fragile replacement-level player either way, even if Safeco is somewhat better suited to his remaining skills.

  12. Wag on November 4th, 2009 10:28 am

    Bring him back for one more year. Tell him he will have the same situation as last year. He generates revenue and is good for the team and the city, not to mention baseball. We more than likely will not be a championship team next year so bringing him back and giving him one more year to help keep the team building towards the future and developing the young guys is worth it.

  13. currcoug on November 4th, 2009 10:35 am

    I am willing to bet Junior could put up those numbers at Safeco again. Conversely, I doubt he could be that bad again on the road.

  14. Dave on November 4th, 2009 11:09 am

    Replacement level players don’t put up .548 SLG and .930 OPS at Safeco.

    Sure they do. Remember Willie Bloomquist posting an 1.102 OPS in his major league debut? What, you mean that was a small sample?

    Oh…

    You’re taking something that is not predictive and making a predictive argument off of it. That’s why no one agrees with you. We’re not ignoring facts – we just understand better than you how they work.

  15. currcoug on November 4th, 2009 11:59 am

    Using WFB in the same breath as Junior to make a point? Priceless.

    Small sample size? We also have the stats from 1999, when Junior hit 14 HR’s, with an SLG of .616, and an OPS of .998 (151 AB’s) at Safeco Field. Moreover, Zduriencik correctly stated (predicted) that Junior’s bat would play well at Safeco Field. He would probably make the same statement (prediction) again, if they actually bring Junior back (highly unlikely).

    When the conversation began, I didn’t make predictions. I pointed out facts: 1) Junior had arguably the best numbers at Safeco Field for any Mariner in 2009; and 2) Junior “absolutely sucked” on the road. Subsequently, I agreed that Junior was a bad player “overall”.

    Unfortunately, it appears that many of you can’t admit to fact #1.

  16. Dave on November 4th, 2009 12:10 pm

    Again, let me restate the problem – you don’t understand the predictive nature of statistics. You believe that because something happened, we should expect it to happen again. That’s the only problem here. You don’t get why that isn’t true.

    Until you come to grips with this fact, arguing with you is useless.

  17. currcoug on November 4th, 2009 12:27 pm

    In all seriousness, what does the “predictive nature of statisitics” have to do with you and others refusing to admit that Junior had a solid season at Safeco Field? Did he or didn’t he in your mind?

    Or perhaps you could explain why Junior isn’t likely to put up solid numbers again at Safeco Field (provided he comes back)?

  18. Dave on November 4th, 2009 12:34 pm

    No one’s refusing to admit anything. You’re setting up a ridiculous strawman and making a fool of yourself in the process.

    If you’re actually interested in projecting Junior’s performance in 2010, you need to understand basic concepts like how regression to the mean works based on varying sample sizes. Why don’t you start by reading this?

  19. Mike Snow on November 4th, 2009 12:38 pm

    Using WFB in the same breath as Junior to make a point? Priceless.

    It made more sense than treating 1999 numbers as even remotely relevant to how Griffey might perform in 2010.

  20. eponymous coward on November 4th, 2009 12:42 pm

    In all seriousness, what does the “predictive nature of statisitics” have to do with you and others refusing to admit that Junior had a solid season at Safeco Field?

    This is what you aren’t getting- we’re not refusing to admit he had a good year at Safeco in 2009, we’re saying it’s irrelevant for determining his overall value. The overall picture is of a player who hit .214/.324/.411, who’s in year 8 of the decline phase of his career (where he’s consistently lost power and ability to hit for average), and who’s going to be 40 if he plays in 2010, and thus we shouldn’t care if he managed to hit well at Safeco for his year 39 season.

    FWIW, try and find someone with Griffey’s home/road splits over an entire career. Hint: you won’t find them. Either that means Ken Griffey Junior, at the age of 39, has developed a skill to hit in his home parks that no other MLB hitter has had, or his home/road splits are exaggerated by random chance. I (and most every one else) pick the second option; you pick the first, apparently.

  21. gsquared on November 4th, 2009 12:59 pm

    1) Junior had arguably the best numbers at Safeco Field for any Mariner in 2009

    Unfair comparison. Junior was a platoon LH hitter; so not only are we talking SSS, we’re also talking about a sample in which Griffey only played when his chances of success were maximized. You just can’t do a straight comparison of his Safeco rate stats to those of other M’s.

  22. currcoug on November 4th, 2009 1:19 pm

    Dave, where did I ever make a prediction about Junior in 2010? As a matter of fact, I went out of my way not to do so (until my comment about betting, which is not a prediction).

    And it is still a fact that not one of you can actually say it: Yes, Junior arguably put up the best numbers at Safeco this season for the Mariners.

    At least Ep admits he thinks the splits are a fluke.

    Could part of the answer be as simple as a combination of Safeco favoring lefties, and Junior being more motivated at home?

  23. joser on November 4th, 2009 2:14 pm

    “Motivated”?

  24. eponymous coward on November 4th, 2009 2:28 pm

    I’ll phrase it this way: I think; given a) Griffey’s career arc, b) his age and c) his overall results in 2009, that his overall 2009 performance is more representative of his true skillset than his 2009 Safeco stats plucked OUT of his overall performance.

    In general, we should prefer larger sample sizes, and Safeco’s R/L splits just aren’t that extreme- there’s very little reason to think that Griffey is going to be able to consistently OPS .900 at home while he posts OPSs under .600 on the road. Even players who hit in Coors Field before they started chilling the baseballs don’t have that sort of exaggerated split in their stats, and hitters who are BETTER LHB than Griffey than he is at this point in his career (Raul Ibañez, Ichiro) don’t show these kinds of splits and ability to take advantage of Safeco. Thus I think the argument that his home stats are closer to his true skillset than his road stats is very, very dubious, and unsupported by any evidence other than wishful thinking.

    As for being motivated- so Ichiro’s lazy, which is why he doesn’t OPS .930 at Safeco? This is just silly- if hitting a baseball was all about motivation and skills were irrelevant, nobody would ever have to retire, since 40 year olds are just as motivated as 20 year olds. The argument that Griffey somehow has a unique ability nobody else in baseball has to hit at Safeco while sucking on the road because of motivation doesn’t make sense- aside from the observation that he apparently wasn’t motivated to hit very well for Chicago in 2008 during a pennant race and playoffs, so apparently his motivation only shows up at home games in Seattle.

  25. Dave on November 4th, 2009 2:50 pm

    Stop it with the “admitting” strawman. It’s stupid and making you look like an idiot.

    The splits don’t matter. They. Don’t. Matter.

    You have a lot of learning to do. We’ll help if you want, but if you’re just going to be obnoxious and argue from ignorance, go away.

  26. currcoug on November 5th, 2009 10:43 am

    Ep,

    An excellent analysis, and well-thought out. Thank you for taking the time to do it. I agree about Junior’s deteriorating skills, but the flip side is probably true too: i.e., Junior probably wasn’t as bad as his 2009 road numbers indicate. In any event, I doubt we are going to find out whether Junior can put up another plus .900 OPS in 2010 at Safeco, don’t you?

    One final thought on Ichiro. With the exception of 2001, 2002 and 2004, Ichiro’s home/away splits significanly tilt toward Safeco Field. We will see about Branyan, but his 2009 stats reveal the same thing.

    Dave,

    Your approach is sophomoric, insulting, and unnecessary, but I’ve said that before. You have a lot to learn about people, and yourself. No doubt, I will now be excoriated by all.

  27. Wag on November 5th, 2009 11:07 am

    This is the only site in the world where apparently the only thing that matters is all these stupid stato-grams. OPS and basic HR, RBI, AVG. are the most important stats. Griffey actually did pretty descent. And it would be easy to argue that he will do better if given another year at Safeco. He didn’t even get 400 AB’s. If he were to get 500 he might hit 30HR’s and 100 RBI’s. Thats not a far fetched comment. Griffey has been up and down every year for the past 8 years. Overall, the fans of Seattle want Griffey back for one more year. There’s not a stat out there that could convince me he wasn’t a great part of our team’s success in 2009 and our progress FORWARD.

  28. Dave on November 5th, 2009 11:29 am

    Perhaps you two should go start a blog of your own, where you can pile your ignorance on top of each other. As it is, you’re not really adding anything here.

  29. gsquared on November 5th, 2009 11:33 am

    Wag, buddy, there’s only one response to that.

  30. Graham on November 5th, 2009 11:38 am

    There’s not a stat out there that could convince me he wasn’t a great part of our team’s success in 2009 and our progress FORWARD.

    This is because you are stupid.

    It can’t even be explained by ignorance any more. You are an idiot. Please go away.

  31. Mike Snow on November 5th, 2009 11:44 am

    Griffey actually did pretty descent.

    That is, probably inadvertently, the most accurate thing you’ve managed to say about this.

  32. TranquilPsychosis on November 5th, 2009 12:23 pm

    OPS and basic HR, RBI, AVG. are the most important stats.

    If you actually belive that, then this probably isn’t the site for you.

  33. TranquilPsychosis on November 5th, 2009 12:24 pm

    That is, probably inadvertently, the most accurate thing you’ve managed to say about this.

    Sad, but true

  34. eponymous coward on November 5th, 2009 1:46 pm

    Aaaaaand, right on cue:

    He could be moody at any given time on any given day, but he was an absolute joy to be around the entire ’09 season and it rubbed off on everyone.

    That reason alone seems to make it worthwhile bringing him back for at least one more season.

    Like I said: apparently, he is owed a roster spot in perpetuity.

  35. gsquared on November 5th, 2009 2:00 pm

    “At least” one more season? ARRRRGGGGHHHHHHhhhh….

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