Hardy to Minnesota
Dave · November 6, 2009 at 9:20 am · Filed Under Mariners
You can officially cross J.J. Hardy off the list of possible options this winter. He was traded to the Minnesota Twins for Carlos Gomez.
Heck of a move for the Twins.
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How does Brandon Morrow compare to Carlos Gomez?
Blasted, that sucks.
so cameron is pretty unlikely to return to milwaukee. We could plop him in left field and have the greatest outfield defense in the history of the solar system…
Carlos Gomez? Crap.
Liam, Gomez is a solid to good defensive center fielder with speed. Some projected him to be Jose Reyes in center. He’s got averageish contact rates, 65 to 70 speed on the 20-80 scale, and in the minors showed some average plate discipline. So far in the majors he’s still trying to find his swing and hasn’t developed any power. He’ll be 24 in December.
Would Cammy make people accept the non-tender of an offer to JR?
man, wouldn’t that be ironic. We might as well pick up Randy while we’re at it.
Too bad about Hardy, but probably irrelevant. I see Z bringing Jack Wilson back on a cheaper contract.
Man, I knew Milwaukee would end up selling low on Hardy, but that low?
With Hardy off the table, what the are Mariners next best options?
Jack Wilson. I’d expect an announcement about an extension for him in the next few days.
Yeah, I remember him saying at some point that he was giving Wilson a mulligan on his performance because of his injury, which suggested to me that he was planning on bringing him back (and really, why would you trade to just get him for half a season?)
That’s a good question. Why not sign him as a free agent instead of giving up talent in a lost season?
Does trading for a player with an expiring contract at the deadline make them more likely to sign with that club?
Re: possibly re-signing Jack Wilson,
Just sucks to have ANOTHER black hole in the batters box on a team already anemic at the plate.
There goes my dream of two shortstops up the middle.
Wilson is better than just a consolation prize, think of Guti playing the infield.
We really missed out in this one! This might be Jack’s first mistake. Obviously milwakee was selling low on this to clear payroll, etc. We definately have the organization depth to have gotten this one done. Mark this one down and don’t forget to ask JZ next time we meet with him and the boys!
If we are going to replace Wilson it needs to be somebody with a higher upside.
Well, since we’re dealing with 100% speculation, let’s say that the Brewers demanded an outfielder in return–and from us, it was Guti. Would you do that deal?
Maybe we countered with Saunders…and they said, ‘no thanks’.
If that’s the way it went down, I wouldn’t consider it a mistake.
I think we can safely close the book on the “offensive shortstop” line of wishful thinking.
I really hope Zduriencik is able to add some offense at another position, it’s going to take more then a decent DH to move this team into serious contention.
So far it seems like all the stereotypical moves are being made.
I fully expect Griffey to be back–albeit as a pinch hitter/cheerleader, and it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if the only free-agent upgrade we see are a starting pitcher and a designated hitter.
They would have accepted a servicable pitcher or two and then resigned Cameron to a 1-2 year deal. Plus, they are grooming and moving weeks to center anyway!
diderot,
I think your example is a very likely one. And I for sure would not have traded Gutierrez for Hardy. Saunders for Hardy would have been nice though.
Jack Wilson at 5M-6M/YR on a two year deal works for me. I think Zduriencik gets it done within the next week.
The Brewers aren’t going to have Cameron back. So I am still pushing for Cameron in LF in 2010. He is a 4WAR guy, provides a boost in power and would complete what would become the best defensive outfield in all of baseball.
It wasn’t quite a lost season by that point — most of us cynical realists were already resigned to that, but the faithful still had some not-completely-misguided hope. We don’t know when the negotiations started, but the team was only 4 games back on July 19th, though they swooned to 9 GB by the time the trade was announced on Aug 1.
And Wilson wasn’t necessarily a free agent — he has a team option for 2010 that the M’s inherited (and likely will renegotiate as part of an extension). It’s true that the Pirates probably would’ve bought out that option, making him a free agent, but at that point anybody can grab him — you’re not just negotiating with him, several other teams are as well. And Z (like the rest of us) clearly wanted to get rid of Betancourt and found a steal of a deal to dump him on KC. At that point — and given the team arguably wasn’t quite out of contention yet — you have to get somebody, not wait for the end of the season.
Anyway, it was all part of buying low on Snell too, and you can’t separate out that aspect of the deal.
Why is there no love for Jack in Seattle? The guys a stud! Possibly the best defensive SS in the MLB right now! And remember Hardy couldn’t hit this year either, thats why they sent him to AAA to get more practice and coaching!
The hitting aspect of his game can be worked with and coached. The fielding aspect is raw natural talent!
Id take Jack on my team any day!
Somebody mentioned “offensive shortstop” and 3 posts later someone else mentions the most offensive of them all. Did you fellas plan that?
I wouldn’t say there isn’t any love; He’s a stand-up guy and a hard-nosed player capable of being the best defensive shortstop in baseball.
The issue is that thanks to his offensive output as well as his adept leather, J.J. Hardy in 2007-2008 was twice the player that Jack Wilson is.
You counter with more speculation. Let’s back off this line of thinking without knowing any facts, huh?
wOBA doesn’t agree with you. If you ignore Hardy’s awful 2009 and take him to be the ~4.5 win player he was over 2007-2008, yes he’s worth about twice the wins of Wilson… but how much should we discount that 2009? Wilson has had some pretty good years too.
I too have wondered this, and I think it’s entirely perceptual — to wit: when it comes to a perception of Jack Wilson, there really isn’t one. He got injured so soon after he got here, in the doldrums of summer, and didn’t return until the team was playing out the last pointless games, that not many people actually saw him play. Add in his obscurity in Pittsburgh and the confusion with the uninspiring other Wilson, and most M’s fans — even pretty serious ones — have no idea who Jack Wilson is or what he can do. They wouldn’t recognize him on the street, they have no memory of any defensive play he’s made, and so they just look at his offensive numbers and go “Yikes!”
It took quite a few highlight plays by Beltre before most fans were willing to look past his (decent, but not up-to-inflated-expectations) offensive numbers and be cheered by his defense; it’ll probably take a solid couple of months of web gems for Wilson also. Unless fans are looking at his UZR, they’re not going to be on his side until they’ve seen him save a lot of runs. And if they’re looking to him as a source of offense, they’re never going to be happy.
(It also doesn’t help that when it comes to looks he’s not, shall we say, Guti-esque. Betancourt got a lot of rope in some quarters [yes, I'm looking at you, Lauren] just from being cuddly. Wilson has to make his play speak for itself.)
Solid pitching, consistent above average defense and timely knocks are the 2010’s keys to a successful season! This move was realistically the only true upside deal that could have really paid off in a thin market where teams are holding onto young talent and solid offensive difference makers!
JJ has a lot more upside than J. Wilson, especially offensively. But there’s no guarantee what-so-ever that he would get back to that. I also HATE the $8M option on J. Wilson, RIP OFF! I would have liked to have seen him in a M’s uniform ONLY if we could have gotten him for some up and coming prospect. Not Brandon Morrow though like everyone on here was suggesting. I’m not ready to give up on him yet. I think we could solve the problem internally and use our money somewhere else. Just throwing this option out there, Jose Reyes. Not a bad contract and he had a injured down year. So he could be cheap. any thoughts on that one?
Forget it! Brewers wanted solid defender, per Dave, to get deal done! Shows that Melvin isn’t as quality without JZ and the boys. They got seriously short changed in this deal!
Over at Fangraphs, Dave says “Assuming some bounce back, Hardy should project as something like a +3 win player for 2010″; a healthy Wilson is probably a +2 Win player over a full season. So the difference isn’t vast, and JJ is hardly “twice the player” Jack is. And if Wilson is a 2 win player — with $4M – $5M being the cost of a win on the open market — his $8M salary means he’s also getting paid appropriately (if there’s inflation this offseason and/or he performs really well, he might even be slightly cheap). But I wouldn’t be surprised if Zduriencik manages a renegotiation of that as part of an extension (with some injury history, incentives for games played would seem an obvious way to go).
According to MLBtraderumors… take it for it’s worth, but they’re saying that the M’s and Wilson are talking extension. My take from the article was 4M per year for 2 years. Would be nice.
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
Hardy would have been nice, but Wilson is a stud in his own way too.
Well, considering he’s under contract to the Mets through next year with a team option for ‘11, I don’t know what to think. Are you talking about trading for him?
Adam Everett is a comparable player for leverage in the extension. If Z gets it down to 2 yrs for 8 I’d be very happy.
No TranquilPsychosis not a trade. I obviously no nothing about baseball or contracts. I thought we could just give him money and he would leave his contract and come over here on a magic carpet and the Mariners would win the world series for the next century…straight. That’s how it works right? Baseball is the sport with a bat and a ball right?
I know I’m missing something. If I’m Wilson, and I have the option of $8m for one year, or $8 total for two years, I sure know which one I’d take.
There’s no need to be snide there young fella.
Usually when people mention a trade they, you know, mention the whole trade idea. Not just a name and “thoughts?”.
your mixing jack and josh wilson. The M’s are currently talking to Josh Wilson about a 2yr/$8M according to MLBtraderumors.com. Jack Wilson has a $8M option that the M’s apparently might not be interested in since there chasing Josh Wilson.
..But he doesn’t have that option, the Mariners do. They can buy him out for 600K and send him packing.
Jack Wilson is going to be the starting SS for at least 2010 and probably 2011 as well. Z didn’t trade for him to be a two month rent-a-player. He’s one of the top defensive shortstops in the game so I don’t get the complaints about him or the constant speculation about trades for other shortstops. Not gonna happen. Z has much bigger holes to fill than SS and he’ll get a deal done with Wilson.
Then, shockingly, MLBTR is incorrect.
If you think the Mets would be willing to trade Jose Reyes, for cheap, clearly you do not know all that much about baseball or contracts.
And clearly I do not know much about comma splices. Or perhaps too much. Whichever.
Umm, no. They’re most definitely not talking to Josh Wilson about a 2yr/$8M contract.
You seem to be claiming that I’ve cherry picked Hardy’s 07 and 08 to show him as a 4WAR player, but in the same vein you then argue that Wilson is a 2WAR player because of his 04, 05 and 07?
I’d argue that Hardy has a lot more chance of being a 4+WAR player again as a 28 year old, then Wilson has of being a 2+WAR player as a 33 year old.
At any rate, I still believe I’m correct in my assertion that four is twice as much as two.
Ya I agree with you rsrobinson.
1B – Carp
2B – Lopez
SS – Wilson (dont care which one)
3B – B.Hall
C – Moore/R. Johnson
RF – Ichiro
LF – Jason Bay
CF – Guti
DH – Griffey
The only money were using is on Bay to give us a power hitter. We re-sign Felix. Achley can be developed with Carp all season. Moore and Johnson will get there opportunity to showcase their skills over a full season.
Then were still loaded with LOTS of young talent. Carlos Triunfel and Tuiassopo are ready to be tested at the big league level.
I think with this plan we are still keeping our main pieces to build around while still keeping our Salary cap low enough to make moves while still developing our overload of great young talent.
Jack Wilson was a 1.9 WAR player last year in 106 games.
Jose Reyes for Brandon Morrow and either Tuiasoppo or Carlos Triunfel and Jack or Josh Wilson (sign and trade). Not a good deal for both sides?
I’m not saying we need to go get a big name short stop, but it’s an interesting trade concept.
just another illustration of the Twin’s awesomeness
Seriously?
I guess not?
Wag, honey, you need your own blog for this. Let us know when you set it up and how you see Pujols fitting in the 2010 M’s lineup. Perhaps at 3B?
Meanwhile, wow, Twins. Fairly solid IF defense now but remaining horrid in the OF. Anyone have any idea how Target Field is expected to play out in terms of fly balls? I’d imagine not like Safeco.
Yes, and we’re talking about projections for 2010.
I’m not arguing that Jack Wilson can’t play at a 2WAR level, I’m arguing that J.J. Hardy has been, and very likely could be, twice the player Wilson is in 2010.
Wheres the moderator for this thread?
This is bitter sweet news, as I am a Twins and M’s fan. Not too fond of Jack Wilson at SS, but it’s hard to find a good offensive and defensive SS, and if the 2/8M is true that’s a steal for us.
Hopefully we can up the offense at 1B/DH or 3B, because this team is really hurting for offense. Ichiro, Branyan, Nick Johnson, Lopez, Guti would be a pretty solid core though.
With Teahan going to the White Sox, should we cross off Lopez moving this offseason? I know probably more than one team wants him, but the White Sox seemed like the best fit, although Teahan may be their 3B.
Jack Wilson has finished lower than 1.5 WAR exactly once since 2004. He has been worth 1.9, 1.6 and 2.7 WAR the past three seasons.
My point isn’t that Hardy is a sure bet to be worth less than 4 WAR, it’s that I really think you’re underselling Jack Wilson. He’s a league average player that we very well might be about to extend for well below market value. Of course I would preferred Hardy, but it’s not like Wilson is God-awful.
I just posted what I would like to see the mariners do. I’d personally stay set with Jack Wilson and give him a shot to get back to his old form. Besides, we have Tuiasosoppo in the back ground.
This whole thread is about going after JJ hardy which for roughly Brandon Morrow.
So whats so crazy about Tui and Morrow for Jose Reyes? Just figured i’d get in on the random ideas for SS.
Umm, Teahen to CWS makes it more likely they’d be interested in Lopez, since they just traded one of their 2Bs and it appears they plan to play Teahen in the corner OF.
It has no basis in reality, and things that have no basis in reality have no place in a comment thread here. Jose Reyes is not rumored to be available, and if someone were to ask the Mets about his availability the asking price would be significantly more than a pitcher with no real role that is widely seen as a bust and a fringe-y major leaguer.
I’m a huge M’s fan, but even I know realisticaly that Tui has no trade value outside of our org. And to think about Tui playing SS for us makes me cringe!
I like your Morrow and Truinfel for Reyes proposal, but its been said that Wright, Reyes, and Beltran are untouchable according to the Mets management.
Just figured i’d get in on the random ideas for SS.
Because if there’s anything this blog is short on, it’s random rosterbation comments.
Good for the Twins, they might actually get some offense out of their middle infield for once!
But I’m perfectly happy with Jack Wilson at short. We have bigger problems to worry about than replacing a +2 WAR shortstop.
Next story: Lopez to the Chi Sox?
Thankyou dijtizzo
It was just a random suggestion.
AaronC. Everything we say on this site it usually our own speculation.
I dont think I ever saw anything about Morrow for JJ Hardy. But this site mentioned it, then MLBtraderumors sited it. So your “no basis in reality” non-sense is just that non-sense.
A packaged deal for Jose Reyes makes a lot of sense for both sides. Just because MLB.com hasn’t mentioned it dosen’t mean it isn’t worth considering. Thats all sports talk is, random idea’s.
Good for the Twins, they might actually get some offense out of their middle infield for once!
But I’m perfectly happy with Jack Wilson at short. We have bigger problems to worry about than replacing a +2 WAR shortstop.
Next story: Lopez to the Chi Sox?
Oh, and I’d love to see Cammy back in left field. Oh would I.
Actually the purpose of the comments section at USSMariner is to discuss the things the authros write. The authors are actualy baseball analysts that know way more about baseball than you or I ever will and have access to information we do not. It’s not just random ideas, and to suggest that, as well as to pollute the comment section of this blog with ridiculous garbage like you have been doing, is completely and totally disrespectful.
How do this
and this
have anything at all to do with each other?
Aaronc said that the trade you proposed had no basis in reality. He didn’t say anything at all about the Hardy/Morrow idea.
Key words…07-08 and, especially, was
I read the ESPN article on the Teahen trade, and granted that it was ESPN they talked about how Teahen would play 3B and Gordon Beckham would play 2B. I think it’s alot more logical to keep Beckham at third and have Teahen replace Dye, but Teahen is probably has more valuable as an 3B than a RF. Hopefully the ESPN article is wrong, it wouldn’t be the first time.
Ancient,
The Sox are saying Teahan will play third, with Beckham shifting over to second.
Actually, another act of Twins genius. The infield is made out of concrete, so that they have a competitive advantage over everyone else. But the outfield is going to be ankle-deep mud, so that their defensive shortcomings are the same for everyone.
Could give that more credence, but could also work the other way, in that it could be an indicator Chicago has picked one (Nix;or the combo of Nix/Lillebridge in this situation).
The M’s Nation lack of love towards Jack Wilson is much less indicative of how good a player he is than the fact that he was awarded the best defensive SS award by people who really know what they are talking about.
Z, though not a voting member of the Fielding Bible Awards (exact name?) he is someone who really know what he’s doing, so the fact that we passed on acquiring JJ Hardy may seen like a mistake to some, but probably at the end of the year, Jack Z’s choices will pan out at a much higher percentage than the smartest posters here would have…
Bottom line: It is unlikely that Jack Z made a mistake on choosing to extend Jack W over trading for JJ H.
Please no more Jason Bay. Why do you want to repeat the Richie Sexson experience?
Wow. Now you’ve conjured up images of Sexson in left field.
Yuch!
Then you need to understand this site isn’t about “sports talk.”
Exactly. And I don’t understand how somebody would think speculation about a Red Sox outfielder is in any way on topic in this thread about shortstops. Or why they’d think Rosterbation was appropriate, period.
Speaking of shortstops… I’d rather have Triunfel tomorrow than Reyes today. And it would take considerably more than you’re suggesting to get him anyway. A 5 WAR shortstop — which Reyes is when he’s healthy — is an incredibly rare and valuable thing. Back in 2008 when he was healthy, he was not only the 2nd most valuable SS in baseball (behind only Hanley Ramirez) he was the 15th most valuable player period, right behind ARod and right ahead of Joe Mauer (not to mention guys like Youklis and Longoria and Rollins…) And you think the Mets will give that up for a maybe-MOR starter and a prospect? Are you a crack-smoking loon?
Minaya may have gotten taken for a ride in the Putz trade, but that’s because he really had no choice: the Mets’ late-season bullpen collapses had put him into a disaster-control mode where he not only had to do something, he had to be seen to be doing something big. Zduriencik smartly was able to exploit that, but there’s no such urgency around Reyes. Minaya would’ve been roasted by the Mets fanbase if he didn’t trade for or buy bullpen help last offseason; he’d be roasted by the Mets fanbase if he traded away Reyes in this one.
Reyes isn’t available for any price you’d sensibly want to pay; if you’re going to expend big resources, shortstop isn’t the glaring hole that needs to be fixed in the M’s lineup anyway.
He played 112 games in the outfield in his career.
No wonder they put Raul out there.
It was supposed to say this..
I was just saying… it actually happened… which makes it scarier.
Alright, I’ll clarify;
J.J. Hardy was twice the player Jack Wilson was, and in all likely hood will be going forward.
Personal opinion? Definitely.
Completely unfounded? Certainly not.
Does this mean I’m unhappy with Jack Wilson as a Mariner? No, But that wasn’t the basis of my original argument.
It’s hard to say without knowing how the prevailing winds go once the stadium superstructure is in place, as New Yankee Stadium has demonstrated. Going strictly by the park dimensions, it looks to be a bit more of a hitter’s park than the old dome: it’s significantly shallower in left and slightly deeper in right, but it won’t have the big baggy wall that the Metrodome had. I’d expect RH pull hitters like Lopez will enjoy it, especially in the middle of summer; beyond that (and the obvious effect of real grass slowing down grounders that would’ve gone through infield gaps), we’ll just have to see.
Nobody here knows what’s possible and what isn’t. I say again, “I would like to keep Jack Wilson and give him a shot this season.”
However, talking openly about other options on other teams is fair game. Joser, who are you to say what holes need to be filled and what holes do not. A lot of people would say trade Felix Hernandez and get everything you can for him and in doing so save a lot of money. A lot of people would say he’s a 1 in a million pitcher, sign him for 10 years and give him everything including the kitchen sink.
You have no idea what it would take to get Jose Reyes. AGAIN, I am not saying we get him or even pursue him. But if Jack Wilson dosen’t pan out and nobody can step up and produce at SS. You have to think outside the box.
Wheres the moderator for this thread?
Sorry, I don’t know about anyone else but I was booked all afternoon. Anyway, just because one much-bruited trade possibility goes away does not justify fantasizing up new ones with no basis in reality. So that will be all for the random trade suggestions.
I was working too.
Seriously Wag, you either need to learn what this site is about (the informatoin is freely available here) and follow along. Or, if this doesn’t suit your tastes, move along to a fox site or something along those lines.
Again, if you can’t grasp these few basic things (oh yeah, this) then, honestly, you really have no place commenting here.
Now this isn’t saying that you are a bad person in any way. It’s just what this particular blog is all about. If you can’t get with it, then just go. If you can get with it, welcome aboard.
Now I’m probably going to get ripped by a mod {most likely Derek} for missing both end parenthises. Maybe I should take my own advice and re-read the guidelines…
I will say that Dave maybe right about his off season plan of possibly getting Danks from the Chi sox. They did just get rid of there second basemen and Dye. So there is a hole at 3rd and right. However, I doubt it will happen because Rios will move in to RF and teahen will slide to third with either alexei or beckham moving to second. Looking forward to December!
At the risk of being chastised, why are Hardy’s LD% and Contact% not more of a concern? It would scare me away from him. If his bat has slowed down, and scouts would definetly notice, wouldn’t that explain th ‘low’ return in the trade?
That’s a good point, Steen. To my knowledge, the batted ball classification systems that give us the stats such as LD% are imperfect, but Hardy’s steady drop in both that stat and in Contact% could certainly help explain the level of return the Brewers received. His peripheral trends don’t look promising, and it will be interesting to see whether he can find his groove in the AL.
Maybe Z was thinking along the same lines. He really does seem to be a rather bright fellow.