Elias rankings for free agents out, no surprises
Well, not if you read USSM, that is. Downloadable as a PDF from USA Today.
M’s only have two B-rated guys, Bedard and Beltre (appropriately). So if the M’s offer those two arbitration, and they turn it down, they’ll get a late draft pick. Unless the signing team only signs one “B” rated guy, at which point something else happens, unless some other criteria is met. It doesn’t make a lot of sense, and it’s not really worth hashing out just yet until they’ve filed for free agency and been offered arbitration or not.
Washburn, who many people speculated would end up rated, is not. Doesn’t matter, the whole rating system has so little to do with actual value that you might as well call it the Gold Glove Award.
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What’s the conspiracy that keeps Elias in the position of determining this? I’ve never bothered to figure out who (other than Elias) must be profiting from it.
Well, except that this rating system, whatever its faults, does have a lot to do with it. Doesn’t it? Doesn’t rating someone an A instead of a B make a difference in compensation? I remember that was a point of discussion regarding Bedard earlier this year. Actually I’m surprised Beltre wasn’t rated A. Is that because of his injury?
No, no, losing Type B free agents nets you a supplemental pick after the first round, not one of the signing team’s picks.
The story, oft repeated, is that Marvin Miller cared so little about the rankings that he just let the owners put in whatever system they wanted, and this was what they had gotten from Elias. I think this may have been one situation where Marvin was wrong, as owners have awakened in recent years to the cost of the draft picks which depress Type A and B free agents’ signing values.
If a team declines an option on a player, as the White Sox did with Dye (who is Type A), does that mean they also can’t offer him arbitration, and thus get the draft picks? I’m not advocating the M’s signing Dye, but I would like to know the rule if anyone has it.
If anyone wants to see how silly the rankings are, just glance though the catchers. Bengie Molina is an A. Jason Kendall is a B. So is Miguel Olivo.
I’m glad you”re not advocating signing Dye. He is essentially a zero WAR guy….partially because he is atrocious in the field.
Let’s not sign Dye..unless we get him at a bargain basement price (say..$1M) as an extra outfielder/DH type. even then it is probably a bad move.
No, Derek, how do you REALLY feel about the Golden Glove Award?
I remember hearing a story about a player (I don’t recall who) that claimed that they would win the Gold Glove, even though they had a horrible year in the field. They asked him why he thought he’d win, and he said because he’d hit .300 and had 30 home runs.
The part that sucks is that this particular signing would most likely be George again.Honestly This, in particular, concerns me a bit.
Do either of them belong, on this team, at this time, my money would say no, but then I’m not exerting pressure from the Mariner marketing team. Hopefully the marketing team doesn’t get as much credence as they used to.
Only in part. It is also because Elias uses (primarily) basic counting stats in which Beltre did poorly. Elias uses none of the modern stats, none of the modern fielding stats in which Beltre exceled.
It’s nice to know we got more for Washburn than the Tigers will (let alone what he cost them in his performance).
I’m kind of surprised that Hideki Matsui wasn’t at least a Type B after the numbers he put up this year. His price just went down, he’s left-handed, is undervalued because of his propensity to injury, fits the DH mold, and could improve the ticket sales even beyond the Ichiro draw.
If he would sign for a 1 year deal (team option for a 2nd year) for $8 million per, would it be a good deal for the M’s? He doesn’t have 1B flexibility, but I would expect him to play at a 2-2.2 WAR level next year. Is that in line with what we need to be accomplishing via free agency or are there better deals out there at DH in Delgado or Johnson?
I think that might depend on who the team ends up with at 1B. If it’s Branyan, and his back issues, they can’t really afford to have a DH that can’t put some time in at first if needed.