This And That
Felix didn’t win the Cy Young. I don’t particularly care about the BBWAA awards that much, but I know some other people do. For those people, you should be happy. The BBWAA is getting better at this award voting thing. Greinke was the obviously correct candidate, and he won in a landslide. That probably wouldn’t have happened five years ago.
As Derek humorously pointed out this morning, you’re going to read a lot of rumors over the next few weeks, linking the M’s to various players. There’s no reason to take any of these too seriously. The Mariners have a lot of open roster spots and a decent amount of money to spend, so they’re in a position where due diligence requires them to call just about everyone. They’re in information gathering mode. It would be negligent for them not to talk to the agent for John Lackey, but that conversation doesn’t mean that you should begin to expect the M’s to sign him.
Once free agency starts on Friday, we’ll get better information beyond speculation about what teams may do. Until then, pretty much everything written is fluff.
Selfishness hoped for one more awards snubbing, but Greinke was the right choice.
I’m excited for this off-season to get moving. Having hope in the team makes the time between the end of the season and the start of the next feel like ages.
Excuse me, Carson, but did you not read the Peabody-worthy SI article from this morning? We’re not playing for anything in ’10, so we might as well stand pat, and you can jettison that hope you thought was gonna keep you warm this winter. /sarc
That *didn’t* happen five seasons ago. I haven’t looked at the advanced numbers from back before they were widely available, but it seems to me that the gulf between Santana and Colon was at least as wide as the one between Greinke and Felix.
Then again, if Felix had “won” 20, who knows…
Hope in the off-season? This is a new feeling! I used to dread the off-season as it was full of fear for any move Mr. Bavasi might make to cripple the franchise.
I missed that one, sadly. Allow me to rush that direction right now!
Seriously, though. This is the part where I usually have cautious optimism. But, Jack has really done such a bang up job so far that he deserves true optimism.
We may not be having a parade this time next year, but we’re not looking at a 2008 following a false hope 2007 season either. Huzzah for hope.
The way things are going, I’m just happy they didn’t select Jeter.
14times, I’ll drink to that!!!
Silver lining–if Felix had won, maybe his long term cost would have been even higher?
Felix didn’t win the Cy Young and I couldn’t care less.
-He didn’t deserve it and Greinke quite clearly did.
-He and his agent don’t get quite as much leverage in extension talks.
-The lack of a relatively meaningless award doesn’t detract from a stellar pitching campaign.
As for the Hot Stove speculation; 99% of anything reported before December is pure speculation at best, the remaining being utter crap, and the things that do end up happening are usually more surprising/interesting anyway.
People want news, writers need stories, nothing is going on yet, it’s as simple as that.
Or Adam Jones.
Well, I believe they include that in arbitration calculations, but if Felix is going to arbitration there probably isn’t a “long term cost” to the Mariners anyway because he’s headed elsewhere when his time here is up; we want to see Felix get bought out and extended this offseason, not in arbitration.
It’s not unusual to see incentives in the form of bonuses for Cy Young awards in pitchers’ contracts, and I expect Felix’ agent would ask for that, so a future Cy Young certainly could make Felix more expensive; but I think the team, and the fans, would consider that a “problem” worth having.
Yeah, that was my point–one more lever to drive up his cost to us this offseason.
I understand the whole arb. thing, but why couldn’t we just wait untill next winter to lock Felix into a long contract? Could sombody explain to me the way a contract to Felix would work as far as this year and next? Wouldn’t it be a discount compared to what he will make having a contract with us? Whats wrong with arb. this year? Serious replys only please, I’m just learning the whole management side of baseball….don’t need any more sarcasim!
Right now, we’re the only team that can negotiate with him. That exclusivity goes away once he hits the free agent market.
That’s why if you want to resign him, you do it this year, not next. If you wait until then, you’re competing with the deep pockets back east.
Think of it this way – if you’re Felix Hernandez, you currently have to throw about 7,000 pitches before you hit free agency. Due to the inherent risks of pitching, you have some percentage of blowing out your arm on any one of those pitches. If that happens, your massive paycheck goes away, so every time you take the hill, you’re risking a couple hundred million dollars.
A year from now, Felix will be ~3,500 pitches away from free agency. His chances of massive injury will be half of what they are now.
Less risk equals a higher cost – this is true in every aspect of life. That’s why you pay for insurance. To Felix, signing a contract now would be the baseball equivalent of buying insurance against his arm blowing up in the next two years.
In order to eliminate that risk, he’ll take a reduced price. If you wait a year, you make him bear that risk, so he won’t give you the same discount. So there’s a significant financial incentive for the M’s to lock him up right now. He’s only going to get more expensive as he gets closer to free agency.
Got it! So buying now, though probably costing more now also, we will actually be paying less in the long term if we lock him up this winter. Leading to more money to spend in later years and so on….
Thank you.
Sort of. Getting him to sign now will most likely not cost the team whole bunch right away. It would most likely be an escalating contract with Felix making roughly 20 to 22 million on average in the last 2-3 years. (Depending upon contract length)