M’s Offer Beltre Arbitration
Good news. The M’s took the plunge on an arbitration offer to Adrian Beltre, which will net them something like the 45th pick in the draft next year if he signs elsewhere. The odds of him accepting are very low.
Around the league, the Dodgers declined to offer arbitration to anyone, underscoring just how severely the McCourt divorce is going to hamper their ability to function. Really, the odds of Randy Wolf accepting were none and none, but they punt the draft picks anyway.
All three of the interesting type A second baseman were not offered – Orlando Hudson, Placido Polanco, and Felipe Lopez. If the M’s deal Jose Lopez, expect them to be in on one of those three. Marco Scutaro was offered, which almost certainly takes him off the M’s list. They won’t be giving up the 17th pick in the draft to sign him.
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Can’t Red convince AB that he really does want to stay here?
So at this point… Beltre/Boras are going to try and figure out what the market is for his services. The only way he’ll accept the arb offer (12mil approx) from the M’s is if he can’t a multi year offer from another team, correct? He’s not going to sign a one year deal with another team seeing how no one will offer him close to what the arb offer is on a one year deal. Let me know if I’m off base with my thinking.
It’s almost TOO quiet…..
And suddenly the activity starts up again! It’s good that Beltre was offered but not Bedard. Is Beltre really going to sign elsewhere? Where else can he get a fan who puts a blownup faceshot of him on a stick?
Just because Beltre was offered arbitration doesn’t mean they won’t agree on a multi-year deal. Once again from that meeting, sometimes those agreements are reached literally on the steps of the building before deadline.
Before the arbitration hearing, I mean.
Beltre offer is a good move by Jack Z. Beltre is the best 3B available — and, it shows the M’s won’t be cheap this Winter.
It’s possible that the M’s offered arb because it was the smart thing to do. Dave had a post about this very thing.
I think it’s a shame that Beltre probably wont be back as he’s always been a valuable player and the alternatives for the Mariners next year aren’t any more appealing then having Matt Tuiasosopo start.
With that said; I can understand why there wouldn’t be dedicated interest in a return for either party.
It’s in Beltre’s favor to sign with a large market team with a genuine shot at a ring, and in a ballpark that doesn’t supress everything he does well offensively.
It is also in the Mariners favor to give opportunities to young players like Tuiasosopo and even start clearing a position for Carlos Triunfel to land at, while not investing serious dollars into a player who loses a lot of his offensive effectiveness in their home park.
This was clearly the move to make, and I’m glad the Mariners made it. I wish Beltre all the success in the world in his future endeavors… Unless he’s the final out facing the M’s in a World Series, then I hope he gets a tasty looking fastball six feet above the plate.
IDK about this. Really, this is a calculated hedging your bets type of play more than a sign of the M’s spending plans. First this ensures the sandwich draft pick should Beltre decline. Secondly, if Beltre takes arbitration (which he most likely won’t, has been covered in depth already) it gives the M’s a chance to come to the table with a reasonable offer and try to save money vs. negotiating for his services against all other interested teams. This shows fiscal responsibility more than not being cheap in my eyes.
I also now assume that those other 2B guys are available it makes Lopez harder again to deal. Although I guess they have different skill sets but will be interesting to see if there are any implications on the market for Jose.
It seems like we all saw this coming. The right move for sure. With Scutaro off the table and I’m sorry to say I think Beltre is going elsewhere, do we go after one of the FA guys at 2nd or try to patch it up in house?
Personally, if we could find somebody to take Lopez, I’d go after Polanco and give Tui a long look at 3rd.
Well Hudson was not offered arbitration by the Dodgers today. He would be a great fit for the M’s at 2b, provided the M’s can find a suitor or Lopez. Maybe Boston for Lowell and cash. Rumor mill / Peter Gammons says Pedroia is open to moving to short. Gotta love the hot stove!
Here’s my Beltre problem. The M’s have a limited amount ($25 million seems to be an amount tossed around quite a bit) to add to payroll for next year. For anything more than $10M (let’s say 12M) then Beltre is gobbling up a very significant chunk of that. That would leave, say, $13M to spend on an arm, a 1B/DH type and, perhaps, a LF. And that’s assuming (safely, I think) that Lopez stays. You could do it, but I think it means committing to either Carp or Saunders (Carp, I hope!) and spending on the other positions. And then you need to get 3 to 4 WAR from Beltre. I’m not sure you can expect enough offensive production from Beltre to get to the 4 WAR point. He’s only been above 3.0 once in the last three years…and last years 2.4 was with his highest BABIP in 5 years (.302). So let’s say you get 3.0 WAR for $12M.
Hannahan had 1.2 WAR in 301 PA’s last year. He could easily be a 2.0+ player with fulltime play (although he did not get to that point in full time play with the A’s a couple of years ago). And he’s had a better UZR150 that Beltre over 2 of the last 3 years. In essence you can get a player that MIGHT be 1-1.5 WAR less that Beltre and you get him basically for free.
That frees up 12 million samollions for that arm and LF and DH.
It’s a close call, I think.
For anything above $10M, Beltre isn’t worth it for a year.
My 2 cents…
Keith
Does the nonsense in the Dodger’s organization mean that they are unlikely to sign any free agents this offseason? They usually spend around eighty million or so every winter on free agents, and if they’re not going to do that, the market might end up a little bit suppressed.
That could be very good for the smaller organizations, like one in the Pacific northwest that wants to hold on to their free agent 3B.
I mean, if they can’t manage to sign a piece of paper in order to get a free draft pick, you know it must be chaos.
I would consider eating a sock if Hannahan become a 2.0+ WAR player.
This was another solid move, but for the great mass of relatively uninformed to assume that the current FA’s represent the entire group that the M’s Front Office is choosing from is close minded. This offseason will be won or lost based upon a trade that we don’t even know is on the table. That being said, keep guessing because this is far and away the most fun in Seattle pro sports right now.
Mark Derosa can probably be thrown in on that list of Hudson, Polanco, and Lopez as well. I’d imagine the Mariners will atleast “kick the tires” on all four guys
Polanco interests me because he could play 2nd or 3rd, depending on what we end up doing with Lopez. He’s a 3 WAR player and could probably come relatively cheap. Seems like a good fit to me.
So My Dream of having O Dawg on the team may come true, i’ve wanted him for 3-4 years. Hoping the market wants to go cheap on a 2B, I think J Lo makes around 3-4, where the free agents will probably get closer to 8. Then we would probably need the rest to resign Felix. So as much as I’d love to have him, our best option at 2B/3B is probably Tui. I’d pick Beltre over Hudson, mostly because a whole year of Wilson-AB is going to make the left side nearly untouchable.
DeRosa was offered arbitration. Take him off your list.
Cameron also obviously wasn’t offered arbitration, it makes one wonder what his asking price is, if not to just give Saunders another year.
Any chance at all that we sign Bedard to a cheaper, incentive-based deal?
It also shows that they’re covering all the angles, dotting the “i”s and crossing the “t”s. Should be automatic, yes, but that wasn’t something we could assume during the Bavasi years. The offseason is still a rollercoaser ride, but at least with this front office I sit back with confidence there aren’t any obvious holes in the track.
YES! I’ve been thinking this for a long time now. Cammy was good to us for several years, and I have a feeling he could repeat that. His bat might not be phenomenal, but his D sure is! A Cameron/Gutierrez/Ichiro outfield in Safeco would be ridiculously good.
Also, a friend of mine (that also follows this site closely–introduced me, in fact) and I have been wondering what the possibilities might be of the M’s picking up Kevin Kouzmanoff from the Padres. There have been rumors that they might be willing to ship him out in favor of Headley coming up behind him. He’d basically be a cheaper version of Beltre–slightly above average bat with a great glove, to put it most concisely.
With this defense oriented front office that we have, signing Orlando Hudson wouldn’t be too much of a far fetched idea. Or am I missing something? That is of course if they can do something with JoLo.
If we do indeed sign him we’ll have gone from one of the worst dbl play combos in the MLB to one of the best in only a year. Pretty sweet IMHO.
Hmmm..so we need a third baseman…we want someone good defensively and occasionally hit for power…
Hmmm..I wonder who the best guy out there is…
Why isn’t resigning Beltre more of a priority??
Similar batters to Mike Cameron through age 36:
Ron Gant (1 more good year as a part-timer)
Darrell Evans (effective ’til age 41)
Brady Anderson (done at 36)
Rick Monday (so-so as part-timer at 37 then done)
Ray Lankford (one more so-so part time year at 37)
Bobby Murcer (done at 36)
Bobby Thomson (done at 36)
Reggie Sanders (a couple more decent years as a part-timer)
Devon White (2 more part-time seasons but average at best)
Don Baylor (1 good year at 37 then played on in decline for 2 more years)
I realize these guys are a variety of different players, but you can’t pretend age doesn’t matter. Out of 10 players, only 2 played regularly at age 37 anywhere close to their previous level of effectiveness. The odds do not favor a player continuing to play at a high level at age 37.
Beltre, on the other hand, turned 30 this year.
BillyJive,
This is from Dave’s post on fangraphs regarding the subject of arb and Beltre:
Beltre is going bye, bye IMHO.. Hudson is surely in the picture now that he has not been offered arbitration. A switch hitter with AL and NL experience, he has averaged a 2.7 WAR for the past four seasons. Polanco is a good alternative, with a 3.1 WAR the past two seasons at what seems a reasonable price. He’ll be in his age 34 season in 2010 but looks like he’s got a couple of good seasons left in him. He’s a right handed hitter but with AL experience. Felipe Lopez is a NL switch hitter coming off a 2009 season 4.6 WAR, which the same as his 2005 season, however he only averaged about 1 WAR in the three seasons between these high WAR efforts. I think he will cost less than the other options (even though his agent is Boras) but will probably want a multi-year deal. I doubt the Ms will find any worthwhile candidates willing to do a one-year deal. Juan Uribe was a 2.9 WAR player in 2009 with the Giants but spent the prior five seasons with the White Sox.and is a possibility.
– Question…is our front office really “defense oriented”? Or, are they more interested in finding the most efficient way to build their team?
Right now defense appaers to be undervalued for many players. If defense suddenly becomes overvalued and another trait that creates wins becomes undervalued would our Front Office start moving towards that direction? Or, will the FO always trying and put out the best defensive team possible?
… Or a foot outside.
I really don’t like Cammy as an option. I know his time here was pretty good and he was fun to watch in the field and I agree OPS and OBP were good last season. I just can’t stand the strikeouts also his GIDP was way up last season and his SB fell off. That’s a good sign his legs are in decline, not to mention he is pretty much a pull hitter now.
Maybe on a cheap 1 year contract if we are cash strapped from resigning Felix, but that’s the only way I would at least understand a Cameron return to Safeco.
Assuming Beltre rejects arbitration, would someone like Feliz make sense at 3rd? Not sure what he is asking for in terms of years/$$$.
Hm. This
almost caused me to miss this:
Focussing on strikouts over OBP and OPS is kinda focussing on the wrong thing, hm? And GIDPs needs something else, like BABIP, to round out the analysis, too?
How do you know that it isn’t? The Mariners don’t usually make announcements about the players they’re targeting. Just because you’re not hearing about it doesn’t mean it’s not something they might do.
My point was simply that we need a third baseman and he’s the best available….it should be a priority to sign him. Whethere it is or not is debatable but it doesn’t seem to be…
That argument could’ve been made last offseason for a first baseman and Texeira, or an arm in the rotation and Sabbathia (both things the M’s needed). And if you’re the Yankees, you can follow that logic. But if you’re a team with a more limited payroll, it doesn’t make sense to always chase “the best available” if it’s possible to accumulate the same number of wins in different ways using less dollars. In this case, as much as I love watching Beltre play, it might make sense to plug the hole at 3rd with somebody less awesome and devote the dollars saved to buying value at other positions. Such as, say, signing Felix.
Living within a budget sucks, but outside of New York (and maybe even there, sometimes) that’s reality.
Just another example of Bavasi’s incompetence is highlighted in this year’s arbitration offers. Rafael Soriano was offered arbitration by the Braves, but the best part is his classification as a Type A free agent, which the M’s traded for Horacio Ramirez who recently signed a minor league contract with the Nationals. Thankfully the M’s have Zduriencik now.
Link
Pardon my asking, but isn’t that exactly what the goal would be in acquiring him in the first place? His defense has shown no signs of letting up. As for his hitting:
Exactly. For an interesting exercise, compare his GIDP to Beltre’s.
For any other concerns about Cammy, I’d refer you to this article by Dave.
There’s a discussion thread on Tango’s site right now about aging patterns between 27 year olds and 35 year olds. The stat they focus on is OPS. If you look at Cammie’s OPS over his career, it defies expectations. He’s remarkably, almost eerily consistent. So I wouldn’t worry about whether he’s going to have Brady Anderson’s aging pattern.
That wasn’t really the point I was trying to raise with GIDP. I am just concerned about Cammy’s legs and wondering if an increase in GIDP and a drop in SB attempts and SB % (granted smaller sample size) isn’t a sign of decline. That said his defensive metrics were still very strong last year.
As far as the strikeouts, just annoying that’s all. I despise platinum sombreros.
See the last para here. Or this. Or this. Or any of a number of articles at HardballTimes.
It’s not that strikeouts don’t matter, but they don’t matter as much as you think they do. Drop the hate, embrace your inner K.
Hmm, great articles joser. Provided for some rather fascinating reading, and actually increased my potential for embracing my own “inner K”, as you so eloquently put it.
I think the biggest point that I came away with was in the Yahoo! article–Jon Daniels’ comment, “Those guys have value, as long as they’re productive otherwise,” referring to guys that strikeout a lot. And I think I might propose that that production could come offensively or defensively. And a guy that did all three–that is, struck out a lot, but produced at least above average offensively, and above average to well above average defensively–well then, he’d be worth all those strikeouts.
Yes, and Cameron was a guy who was very productive with the glove — something that was under-appreciated in Seattle at the time, and is still generally unappreciated today. A run saved is worth a run earned, and he saved an awful lot of runs.
Also you’ll note his lifetime RE24 is right in line with his wRAA, which means he didn’t strike out more in clutch situations than he did the rest of the time. So his Ks weren’t especially bad as far as Ks go (and they’re better than GIDP).