The Adrian Gonzalez Rumor
So, Jon Paul Morosi wrote up this morning that the M’s are trying to get Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres again. It made for a nice morale boost after a four day stretch that saw the team add no one while losing out on Rich Harden. Here’s the problem – it’s just really, really unlikely.
Like with Felix here, Gonzalez is a player that everyone in baseball covets – an all-star with two years of bargain salaries before he hits free agency. Like with Felix here, the Padres don’t want to trade him, even if other teams are coveting his abilities. Gonzalez is not just the Padres best player, he’s their only player. New ownership is loathe to get rid of the only guy on the roster that fans want to see play just a few months after shipping Jake Peavy out of town. It’s one thing to lose a lot of games – it’s another to have the fan base just give up on the organization.
They’ll trade Gonzalez eventually, but from everything I can gather, it’s not going to be this winter. That’s why you didn’t hear any Gonzalez rumors at the winter meetings. Everyone just knows that SD wants to keep him, so they didn’t bother trying to make something happen.
It’s a nice dream, but Boston fans are having the same dream about Felix. We’re about as likely to deal our ace as they are to deal their first baseman.
Something tells me that Brandon Morrow wouldn’t exactly fit as the player all of San Diego flocks to come see in action. I can’t even put a finger on who exactly San Diego would want from us to even get this type of deal done. So many holes to fill over there…
Dave, do you think we are seeing a situation where the players available the M’s right now are ones they “like” rather than “love. It seems the one player they loved is the one they signed…Chone Figgins. How do you think the 2011 free agent class might affect their desire to commit long term to anyone in the 2010 batch? If the M’s covet Carl Crawford or Adrian Gonzalez or Halliday or Pujols (etc. you get the point) then it wouldn’t make sense to sign Bay…and so forth.
This is why, despite its impossibility, the three-way rumor last trade deadline could have legs. Yes, the Mariners want Gonzalez and he would be a great fit for their park. Yes, the Red Sox want Felix and he would be a great fit for their park. But they’re both so valuable where they’re at, that the only hope of prying either one loose is to trade them for each other.
The only way this could make sense for the Padres is if they acknowledge he’ll be out of town as soon as his contract is up…and thus, will bite the bullet now for a raft of legitimate prospects.
So, what would we say if they required either Ackley or Triunfel, plus Lopez, Gillies, Morrow and another pitcher?
How soon is a team allowed to trade a recent draft pick like Ackley? I ask because MLB doesn’t allow the trading of draft picks, so I would assume that they have something in place to prevent a sign and trade.
Liam – it’s one year.
However I do believe they can name them (draft picks) as PTBNL guys if necessary.
The trade doesn’t make sense on Seattle’s side (trading a bunch of young talent for a non-defensive position) nor San Diego’s side (Gonzalez is the only player worth paying to see).
Incidentally, although the Padres had slightly higher home attendance than the Mariners this year, they saw about half a million fewer fans in San Diego in ’09 vs ’08 (from 2.4M to 1.9M) — a 21% drop. That puts them behind only the Mets (who moved into a smaller stadium), Washington, and Toronto for worst attendance drop in baseball this year (which only dropped about 7% overall). Even Detroit, home of the dying corporate sponsor, didn’t crash as badly as San Diego on a percentage basis (though it was close, and their actual attendance is lower so they’re starting from a lower basis).
What I don’t understand is why so many people are willing to trade away the farm for one player.
Yes, I understand Gonzalez is young and under team control for two more years, but we need to grow our own players and keep them under team control for as long as possible.
We need to build our team through the draft. Then when we are one good player away, make a big trade or sign the high priced free agent.
Also, why is everyone so willing to trade away Morrow I think he has a lot of upside and is cheap for a few more years. Do we not need young cheap pitchers with high upside?
Growing your own players is the right philosophy when they’re good. When you can grow mighty oaks, you definitely want to hoard your acorns. But if they’re going to be bonsais, as some of them inevitably are, you also need to look elsewhere. Drafting raw teenagers is not a science with predictable results, and the farm system is a long pipeline that doesn’t yield those results immediately either.
In this case, it doesn’t make sense to trade away the farm for a player who is unlikely to single-handedly carry the team into the playoffs (and is probably unavailable for anything less than the entire farm). Especially when that player plays a a non-premium defensive position where offense is relatively easy to come by.
But in general, you can’t become to enamored of your own prospects at the expense of every other consideration.
And I should’ve added something about risk/reward. Prospects are potential reward with the risk they’ll never reach it, so when you’re looking at trading prospects for big leaguers you’re always trading off a reasonably certain return today for a less-certain return tomorrow. That tradeoff changes depending on the players involved, of course, but it also changes as the team moves along its progression back to the postseason. (And beyond!)
Does anyone other then me think the reason the M’s didn’t make a deal was that Z is such a shrewd dealer that all the other GMs were reluctant to give Z any proposals that made any sense?
I read from Salk at ESPN that the Mariners are concentrating their efforts on Lackey. Would you rather the Mariners put 4/5 years and a lot of money on Lackey, trade possible future key pieces for Gonzalez and have control and a cheap all-star, or tried harder for Harden with more gauranteed money/incentives? What kind of domino effect would this have in signing Felix long term?
Mike Carp is not the first baseman of the future. Do the Mariners have a first baseman or a middle-of-the-order hitter anywhere in their farm?
If Gonzalez can be pried away without having to give up Felix, Ichiro or Ackley, do it. Problem being, it’s hard to say that anything the Ms have to offer other than one of those 3 is a good fit for San Diego and is the best they could get. E.g. if Gonzalez was made available and the Ms came calling with Morrow, if the Yankees wanted Gonzalez for some reason they could counter with Hughes or Chamberlain, Red Sox with Buchholz, etc.
joser:
So it comes down to a numbers game. The more players you draft, the better you draft, and the less often you deal your top farm-hands, should equal the better chance of hitting some homeruns with your prospects. Does that make sense?
I guess what I envision is Jack Z growing players of his vision. High OBP guys, good speed, defensive of players, pitchers with lots of velocity. So in a few years from now he can go pick players off his trees and plug them into whatever spots that need the most help.
If he could get the farm stocked and continuously grow good players. He would have the upper hand in dealing with other teams to trade for the
“super star players”.
Is this possible? or am I just living in the clouds?
Not that it’s nearly as important as you think, but Rich Poythress says hello.
Chris_From_Bothell,
Ichiro’s age and contract make no sense for team that is rebuilding and just slashed their payroll. Felix is in the same situation as Adrian Gonzalez, he’s gone in 2 years without a contract. You only trade for him if you were gearing up for a run.
Trade the farm for one player in the hope that he’ll put us over the top next year? Been there, done that, didn’t buy the t-shirt.
I’m not going to get my hopes up for a Lackey signing, but there are still some players out there who can help improve this team in 2010 without breaking the bank or sacrificing the future. If it comes down to it, I’d be fine with incremental improvements this year while allowing our young players another year to develop to get a better idea of what we’ve got. That would hopefully allow us to fill some holes with homegrown talent and/or give us more trade pieces to make deals. It would also leave more money to spend in what should be a stronger free agent market in 2011.
There have been other sharp GMs, and people still trade with them. Beane still finds value for his pitchers; Epstein and Cashman still get deals done (what did Arizona think it was getting out of the Granderson teade?)
GMs have egos too; they wouldn’t be where they are if they didn’t have a lot of confidence in themselves and their ability to get at least equal value out of any negotiation. Zduriencik didn’t descend from the heavens and even though most of us hadn’t heard of him before last year the other GMs have been interacting with him for quite a while. It’ll take more than one good offseason before they decide they’re going to “lose” every trade with him (especially since the guy who “lost” the Putz trade was Minaya).
And at the end of the day they still have to get deals done for their own organizations. There are just 29 other teams. If Seattle has the best answer to one of their problems, they’re going to deal with Seattle — beyond a certain point it doesn’t really matter if the Zduriencik does well in the trade if they get the piece they need.
It’s possible, and I’m sure that’s plan; you’ll just have to wait a few years to fully enjoy it. Meanwhile, the M’s also want to get better now.
(Remember too that you can be really smart with your drafts and really good with your development and still have guys get hurt or forget how to pitch or decide to go to culinary school or just fail somehow. And if you get a few of those at the same time, especially right after you did a big trade, you can end up with a huge hole in your farm system even though you did everything right.)
[trying to change the topic]
I wholeheartedly concur with this. It’s great to have visions of the World Series this year..but that really doesn’t seem feasible with our starting pitching.
In reference to our ‘young players’, the Hardball Times assessment of Saunders (rated our #1 prospect) is as follows:
This is why I oppose ‘fixing’ left field.
I totally agree. Bill James has the following wOBAs projected for 2010:
Michael Saunders .325wOBA
Mike Cameron .330
Marlon Byrd .334
And its hard to make a case than even Mike Cameron would be better defensively in LF than Saunders. Saunders will make at least 4m less than either of the other two, and while he is a riskier option, he has a lot more upside too.
Unleash the Condor.
We need “Unleash the Condor” signs, like those old “Have you seen me?” Adam Jones milk cartons.
Maybe some “Condorific!” ones too.
Yay, the Legion of the Condorks is growing!
Trade with our most hated NL rivals!?!?! Blasphemy!!!! 😉
Yeah, that would turn next year’s interleague natural rival series into some kind of nightmarish combination of Disco Demolition and Ten Cent Beer night. Especially in Seattle, where people are noted for expressing their passions without inhibition.
Best reason ever for a game forfeit.
FWIW, Drayer says “Gonzalez is a longshot at best.”
ooooh, hey ladies: Guti on the pocket schedule and we get to vote on the pic. (Ugh, “C” doesn’t even look like him. I value him most for his defense, so it’s “B” for me). Hey, if they’re getting the pocket schedule ready, “pitchers and catchers” is coming soon, right? Right?
Best thing that ever happened in a baseball stadium that didn’t involve baseball (and I say that with full knowledge of things like the Beatles playing Shea).
Well, it could certainly be said that shock jock Steve Dahl couldn’t buy Sox manager Don Kessinger any love after that fiasco. 😉
@joser:
And every day we thank God for not forgetting to give an ego to Dayton Moore.
“Never call a man a fool. Borrow money from him.”
Or get him to take Yuniesky Betancourt.